West Coast

Hey TC

In light of the DJIA touching (albeit briefly) 9700ish territory, do you still think it's going to be years to decades before it hits 10,000?

Looks like a little profit taking today, a good thing.

Lots of up and downs in the next few years, but I think (allow me to say I hope as well) my estimate of 10K within 12 months is achievable. Do the tea leaves, crystal ball or favorite financial blogger lead you to still believe 10K is not achievable within the next 360 (from the time of my original estimate) days?

I'm not holding your feet to the fire as it were, we're aviation people not financial experts, right?

GetTheFlick

TC,

I appreciate your concern but please don't worry about it. I was a safety rep for some of the best controllers in the world for about 9 years. I have very thick skin.

What I don't have is the ability to change minds. Even the best and the brightest occasionaly pick up some bad habits and/or faulty beliefs. I do too. I can only state what I believe to be true and wise. I'm not always right but I like to think I've been right more often than wrong. And I hope I never lose the ability to admit when I'm wrong.

Much of the vindication I received was after I retired. Much of it from those that disagreed with me the most strenuously. I'm okay with it. I certainly wasn't smarter than they were -- I was simply fortunate enough to hold a couple of positions that required I work harder at understanding it all. To put it simply, sometimes things are hard to see in the heat of battle.

I see much the same in this debate. I am fortunate enough (truly fortunate) that I have the time in retirement to delve into matters and read a great deal. I was also fortunate to work for the government -- which is what this debate is really about. We're picking our head of government.

I've seen government work and I've seen it fail. It will continue to do both -- no matter who is elected. It is simply a matter of who you think will do the best job. I believe John McCain is a good man. As I've said before, I do not fear a McCain Presidency. I simply believe that Obama will be the better leader.

Senator McCain has a long and honorable record. Unfortunately, it has been from the Republican Party. In these last few weeks, we have seen the policies of that party fail. Even more damning, the very anti-thesis of the Republican Party -- the nationaliation of banks -- appears to be -- at the moment -- the solution to those failures. I wouldn't count those chickens just yet but the situation appears to be calming down.

However, the message is clear. This Republican Administration will compromise its ideology to protect the wealthy. It has never done so to protect the poor.

The world has changed in these last few weeks. American dominance has been called into question. Our moral leadership has been damaged -- perhaps beyond repair. Perhaps too, our country. At least for a generation.

For better or worse, Senator McCain has been a party to the ideas that have failed us. Senator Obama has not. Senator McCain has had to change his "message" more than once in this campaign. Senator Obama has not.

It is time to turn the page. It is time to begin anew -- to rebuild and regroup -- to repair the damage done and to bind our wounds. Yes. it is time for Change.

And I think America knows it.

Don Brown

prospector

Very noble platitudes, but change what? Can the Government change who are the clever?, who are the stupid? who makes money? who makes a success of their lives? It would appear that Fannie May and Freddy Mac have changed many peoples lives, and was that not brought about by Government trying to change the natural flow of life??

galaxy flyer

GTF

Since you have, by absence of argument, conceded that many current Federal laws and programs can be seen as extra-Constitutional; that you see no limits to the theoretical powers of the Congress and President. That, if a proposed law or program is popular with a majority of citizens it should be enacted, even if it is beyond the powers granted under Article I? That it is a waste of time to proceed down the Founder's Constitutional plan for amending it and giving the requested powers to Congress or the President by amendment; as we did with the income tax or Prohibition?

And you agree that the Federal government run in this manner is OK, by you.

This is a serious political question that you ignore, as does the political class. If the Federal government has no limits, we are now ruled by men whose power is limited only by majoritarian passions, just the fear Madison expressed in Federalist Papers. The quote I offered from the Dred Scott decision is very prescient one, indeed.

"Life, liberty and pursuit of happiness", which two are you conceding as unnecessary, undesirable or optional? I would like to know because if we will governed by a man sharing your political beliefs (you do, in this forum, act as an advocate for Obama), it interests me greatly what I might have to give up in the future. Maybe Alec Baldwin was right about leaving the US, just for the wrong reasons.

GF

galaxy flyer

Reference Brickie's post

Admission, please.

And, while I can praise your efforts in the FAA ATC world, when you are condemning US business practices, it would be nice if you had any relevant experience in business. It seems you alternate between praising the actions of the Fed and the Treasury and condemning them as "socialism" practiced by the Republicans. Which is it-good or bad? I have repeatedly opposed the government's actions and believe them more damaging than helpful.

galaxy flyer

Has the government been shooting people while I was out of the country?

If BHO wants to offer "Hope and Change", it would be nice if he offered it to his half-brother in Kenya living in 6x10 plywood hovel.

Yes, I do fear a Democrat President with the Democrat Congress would give us real socialism rather than faux socialism. I've seen Europe enough and do not want their economy, in all its elements, reproduced here. Elements like high unemployment, massive government intervention in business, bureaucratic inertia, high taxes and sheep for a voting public.

GF

Flypuppy

Depends whether Dick Cheney has been duck hunting again, I guess...

From a foreign perspective, the change that I would like to see is the US being less divisive. The rubbish that was spouted about WMDs and the hatred that the current administration managed to whip up against the European countries who did not support their position was damaging, and utterly unnecessary. History will be the judge of just how damaging the contempt and idiocy shown by people pouring perfectly good wine down drains and changing the name for French Fries to Freedom Fries was. Ultimately, time will heal most wounds, but the stupidity of the actions by certain politicians really went beyond the pale.

If Obama does become the next president, one can only hope that he can build bridges and repair the good name of the US in international circles. The rabble rousing that Palin is keen on is not what the world needs right now.

BTW, one of the most socialist coutries in Europe is Luxembourg. We enjoy the highest GDP of almost any country and the highest net disposable income. All this linked to excellent health care, long holidays and loads of job protection built into labour laws. Socialism IS NOT communism.

Our unemployment rate is 4.2% whats yours GF?

Two's in

Flypuppy,

You miss the point slightly - socialism and hence communism are not feared here because of their collective ideals, they are feared because in a communist utopia there is no God, so all the credit and blame for your quality of life is down to the effectiveness of your politics, and not any imaginary friends and superstitions you may have. Strangely enough, most participants (some willing but most unwilling) have failed the test of communism, but I doubt that Marx regarded it as a resulted based ideaolgy when he articulated the thesis.

One of the great dichotomies in the US is that for such a God fearing nation espousing the values of helping our fellow man, most people find the idea of helping him through socialist ideals to be utterly reprehensible. This might lead you to conclude that the definition of "fellow man" probably falls into a narrow band somewhere between your church coffee morning and the bosses' golfing four. Anybody else is SOL because they should have worked harder in School/College/Armed Forces/Prison/Crack Den

GetTheFlick

Here you are asking all the right questions Prosp -- and me wife says to hurry. It's time to watch the telly.

Change the tone, tenor and direction. Who is clever ? The ones that got us into this mess ? What has been their reward ? How about we change the reward ? Stupid ? Who ? The people that work for a living, pay their bills and pay their taxes ? How about we change the rules and we tell then we value them and their contribution ? Plowing the soil, raising our kids, cleaning the floors and serving our food is honest work and you will be respected and compensated for it. You won't get rich but we'll provide a system where your children will have a good chance to move up. A good education and a chance. A real chance. They'll grow up safe, healthy and they won't be hungry.

How's that for a start ? Government can do that. Fannie and Freddie helped do it for several decades -- before the "clever" guys started getting rich off of it.

Don Brown

brickhistory

Uh, wait, I thought we were talking about the Presidential election, not the well into the six figures of NATCA members? And the retirement based not on what they made as limited by statute, but by what they would have made if the law allowed it, thus a retirement nearly six figures itself?

I don't begrudge you making a good living and having a great retirement, but the 'common man welding and common woman slinging hash' bit is hypocritical.

prospector

. "You won't get rich but we'll provide a system where your children will have a good chance to move up. A good education and a chance. A real chance".

I do believe the Japanese worked on that principle for a couple of generations. They were the most highly educated society around for quite a few years. But what happened to them? a lot of the youngsters now are rebelling against "moving up". The vast majority of people, anywhere, are happy with the world as it is, no need to climb all over your fellow citizens just to "move up". The ambitious and the talented will move up anyway, because they have a desire to do so, not because someone in Governments says it should be so. And anyway, the peak is a very sharp place, not room for everyone on it.

It has been said many times before, but a good garbage collector is of more use to society than a bad lawyer. And to my way of thinking when we have the lawyers and accountants sweeping the streets society will have found its right equilibrium.

Honest people used to shake hands to seal a deal.

galaxy flyer

Flypuppy

Unemployment? Mine's 0% and has been since 1970 when I entered college; flying planes professionally since '76.

I, having spent 29 years in the AF, defend not the way Iraq was fought since 2003. The "march up" was a well-fought, well-done exercise which ended when "peace" broke out. The Army was thoroughly incapable and unprepared to win the peace. That's obvious now, but was obvious to some of the pros then, witness General Shinseki's comments that were undone by Rumsfeld. Rummie will go down as the worst war-fighting SecDef since, ta-da, Democrat McNamara. The civilians put in charge of rebuilding Iraq were horrendous and only the "surge" (poor name for strategy change) put things right, sorta. America will make something of a success of Iraq, we owe nothing, NOTHING less to the Iraqi people.

That said, every intelligence service across the globe, including the French, believed Iraq had WMD. There are numerous recon photos of convoys leaving Iraq in the days leading up to the war, I saw several briefings on the subject and, among intell types, it was a mystery as strange as the planes fleeing Iraq during Desert Storm. No one knows what the photos showed and, if it is known now, the administration is not telling.

Socialism may work in the tiny duchy of Luxembourg (pop. <500,000) but good luck elsewhere, Europe is nowhere near matching Luxembourg's performance. It is pretty hard to use a small country as an example, American is mind-bogglingly immense, 301 million people dedicated to individualism-visit East LA and see the Hispanics drive low-riders to see it in action.

The US Dep't of Labor, Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that, in terms of per capita production, the US was $42,100, Canada at $34,000; France at $30,200; Germany at $29,800 and Italy at $25,500. That's 45% higher than the 2 largest economies on the Continent. Despite the recent 25% drop in the Dow, the DAX is down 28%, the CAC 40 down 25%, Nikkei down 37%, the Russian markets down 61%, which is a way of saying, we're better the competition. The US "bailout" is far smaller as a percentage of GDP than is Germany's or the UK's. Our national debt, as a percentage of GDP is also smaller than Germany's, the UK's or Japan's. Japan's national debt is now 180% of GDP. For ease of doing business, the US is rated, by the World Bank as number three behind Singapore and New Zealand, so we have the largest inflow of foreign direct investment, foreigners still like doing business here, by a wide margin. Despite my wayward countryman, GTF, we still have the most transparent financial system, as indicated by being the earliest to suffer the credit crunch with open discussions and regulatory filings.

I also agree that American diplomacy is really a disaster, the diplomats have never been given the tools, policy and attention they deserve. The DoD can do anything it wants, but SecState is an orphan. It is stupid, should be put right now! Will BHO do it? I doubt it, too much emphasis on personal diplomacy, too much narcissism, too little appreciation of the art. But no American has made a mark in history as a diplomat, sadly.

So, while freedom and productivity made not be the best thing, it is streets ahead of whatever you socialists have in mind.

GF

GetTheFlick

Still haven't figured it out have you, GF ?

Don Brown

GetTheFlick

Who just did that ? Check the signature at the bottom of the Bill. You will find one George W. Bush -- the son of an ex-President. And it will be implemented by the ex-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs.

Game, set, match.

Don Brown

Cap'n Arrr

If I may just butt in briefly, I recently saw someone on another site complaining very vocally about the proposed NHS, and having their taxes increased etc etc. Is the NHS much the same thing as Medicare in Australia? To be honest I've watched John Q, and while I'll never let Hollywood inform me on things like that, if the US health system is currently run along the lines of "You're going to die unless we do this procedure, but we will only do it if you can pay for it now", that scares the crap out of me!

galaxy flyer

GTF

I could ask you the exact same thing-you don't understand the American ideal of free minds, free markets and freedom from government. You really need to escape the government strait jacket of 25 years. The Harley is the symbol of America, not the kibbutz or the bureaucrat. I don't like Harleys, don't ride them, but I understand what they mean. You would sell America's soul to be economically secure, cosseted in government cradle-to-grave programs. As Franklin said, "Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."

The best part of America is happening in MA. We have a question on the ballot to repeal the state income tax. In 2002, the referendum got 45% of the vote and the legislature didn't act to reduce the tax, well, we might just repeal it this time. The only reason to vote here.

GF

Matari

Two's In:


Nice attempt at wit, but not at all accurate. Here are the facts:

Americans give twice as much as the next most charitable country, according to a November 2006 comparison done by the Charities Aid Foundation. In philanthropic giving as a percentage of gross domestic product, the U.S. ranked first at 1.7 percent. No. 2 Britain gave 0.73 percent, while France, with a 0.14 percent rate, trailed such countries as South Africa, Singapore, Turkey and Germany.

U.S. sets charitable giving record - Giving - MSNBC.com

barit1

I heard Ben Stein talking about the subprime meltdown, and he correctly allocated the blame between both the left and right. The Right pressed for deregulation at the same time the Left pressed for greater numbers of homeowners.

The result was that new incentives were created in the mortgage industry, breaking down old safeguards, with the effect of separating reward from risk; the institutions were rewarded for risky behavior, while the government (I mean the taxpayer) bore the risk.

And now we see the government providing loan guarantees for interbank loans. Once again, for the lending bank, the reward is separated from the risk.

Somehow I am reminded of the old maxim: "Idiocy is defined as doing the same thing over and over again, and expecting a different outcome".

galaxy flyer

GTF

My complete statement was:

Your reply:

Another example of your "gotcha" type of poor argument. I admitted the present administration is practicing socialism and bad government. I have consistently opposed the "bailout"; I still haven't figured out if you support this government action or not, if you think it is constitutional or not, if it is a good idea or not. Nada, zero, zilch and you claim to not be shy about presenting your views.

Real socialism, by Barack Hussein Obama will be redistributionist welfare checks, disguised at "tax cuts"; collectivist health care plans, trade protection to protect union labor (ask Argentina how trade protection works), more bailouts like doubling the money to US (read: UAW) auto companies, and the list goes on. It is all on the website and the news. At least, the Republicans might, just might not go along.

GF

galaxy flyer

GTF

Ben There and i are still waiting for an answer to which of "life, liberty and pursuit of happiness" we might have to give up? Or, more simply, which you submit we have done without in the past and can do without now?

Any answers??

GF