Not a bad time to start training?
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
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Not a bad time to start training?
I'm going to stick my neck out here a bit (always risky on pprune) and say that now would seem to be a bloody good time to train. From speaking to colleagues in different airlines there seems to be a lot of movement and a lot more competition for experienced, rated people which will progressively filter down to inexperienced, non-rated people. This is evidenced by the repeated and ongoing recruitment campaigns at several major airlines. Factor in the projected deliveries in Europe and ME alone over the next five years or so and you can see where this is going. I wouldn't say "shortage" but definitely expect improved prospects for those taking the plunge.
It is always difficult to land that first job at the airlines but certainly easier on a rising tide. For those who give it a go: good luck!
It is always difficult to land that first job at the airlines but certainly easier on a rising tide. For those who give it a go: good luck!
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It's a difficult one to answer because the ideal thing is not to begin training on the crest of a wave but to time your training so you're on the crest as you finish. That does not necessarily mean that now is a good time (although prospects look good for the foreseeable). Just remember that any ISIS spectacular or confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Iran has the ability to scupper things significantly. So be careful.
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Out of interest, what do you think are the driving forces behind the recruitment? My (naive) understanding is that airline fortunes tend to lead the economy into recession and lag in recovery, and since the worldwide economy isn't exactly booming, a recruitment wave seems counter-intuitive to me!
If you start training now you will finish in about 15-18 months time. No-one can say today what the industry will be like that far in the future ie any unforseen event could trigger a slump. Who knows if the slowdown in the Chinese economy will spread worldwide. Will tensions between Iran and Saudi affect oil supply/prices? Will there be another big terrorist act? Just too many unknown variables to predict that far ahead.
Starting training at ANY time is a big gamble.
Starting training at ANY time is a big gamble.
Out of interest, what do you think are the driving forces behind the recruitment? My (naive) understanding is that airline fortunes tend to lead the economy into recession and lag in recovery, and since the worldwide economy isn't exactly booming, a recruitment wave seems counter-intuitive to me!
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They create a vacuum which people are moving to fill.
But at the same time, look at all the new aircraft orders in the West. EZY/RYR particularly are looking to expand massively. Given that a lot of people see them as "stepping stone" airlines to the bigger fish, as well as filling the new planes with crew they also have to replace the crew that leave.
You're right in your understanding that aviation tends to overlap the economical cycle, in simple terms at least, but they have to also be proactive. An airline that isn't will get left behind, so a lot of it is a calculated risk that they hope pays off.
Thats why airlines do things like hedge fuel, and have options rather than firm orders for all the new airframes they want, so they have some flexibility if things don't work out so well.
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
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Groundloop - I agree, it is always a gamble but if you have already decided that you are going to take the gamble then it is only really a question of timing. If you were to look back over the past twenty years I doubt you would find a single time when there were no macro-economic headwinds. Equally there are always uncertainties but one can't be frozen in a state of paralysis on the basis of speculative what-ifs. That is not to say that more bad things won't happen - they always will. Good things will happen too though. In these days of rolling 24hr news straight to your hand, it is all to easy to feel that the world is about to rip apart at the seams. It isn't. A few years ago the forecasters used to talk about Atlantic frontal depressions bringing a spell of wet and windy weather - now we must listen to nonsense about Storm Beavis or Hurricane Camilla thus contributing to a self-inflicted malaise.
My point is that on a micro-economic scale the supply/demand equation seems to be creeping in the direction of the employees rather than the employers.
My point is that on a micro-economic scale the supply/demand equation seems to be creeping in the direction of the employees rather than the employers.
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Should of starting training 18 months to two years ago then you would be ready to start now.
I must have know 8 people all modular all who spent around 40 grand who have all got jobs in the last 6 months.
I suspect we are going to have an instructor shortage coming
I must have know 8 people all modular all who spent around 40 grand who have all got jobs in the last 6 months.
I suspect we are going to have an instructor shortage coming
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Spoke to BBVA about MPL's and each airline has unique relationship with them for which they'd only disclose on successful offer. They did make it sound as though the risk is less to the applicant, but you'd never know unless you saw the contracts.
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I'm in your position, albeit it a few years younger.
As people have said above me, the best time to have started training was a few years ago so you'd now be qualified. Even if I had the money I wouldn't have put £100k into an integrated course 2 years ago, the outlook was so bleak.
Aviation reacts to things and changes so quickly, theres always going to be something which will make you reconsider if its the best path to go down.
The best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago, the second best time is today.
As people have said above me, the best time to have started training was a few years ago so you'd now be qualified. Even if I had the money I wouldn't have put £100k into an integrated course 2 years ago, the outlook was so bleak.
Aviation reacts to things and changes so quickly, theres always going to be something which will make you reconsider if its the best path to go down.
The best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago, the second best time is today.
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I still can't believe how some people still believe certain things...
If you get a loan (it doesn't matter if you go MPL or ATPL) and then anything happens (redundancy, performance-related issues...) you will still have to pay that back to your bank. The relationship is:
Bank ==> Individual ==> School/airline.
You pay the school, and you need to pay that back to the bank. The only exception I know is the BA FPP, or at least it was a few years ago (or that's what they say, because I know a guy who unfortunately did not complete training and he still had to pay for it).
Is it a good time to start training? Last 12 months have been fantastic. Next 12 months will probably be as good. But thinking about starting now means you will finish in 24-30 months. Will the industry be in the same position? I doubt it, but you never know.
It's definately a good time to finish, or to have some experience to move where you want to be. But having said that, it's never a good time to start. I started with the recession and I could never have thought about this situation when I started in 2012.
If you get a loan (it doesn't matter if you go MPL or ATPL) and then anything happens (redundancy, performance-related issues...) you will still have to pay that back to your bank. The relationship is:
Bank ==> Individual ==> School/airline.
You pay the school, and you need to pay that back to the bank. The only exception I know is the BA FPP, or at least it was a few years ago (or that's what they say, because I know a guy who unfortunately did not complete training and he still had to pay for it).
Is it a good time to start training? Last 12 months have been fantastic. Next 12 months will probably be as good. But thinking about starting now means you will finish in 24-30 months. Will the industry be in the same position? I doubt it, but you never know.
It's definately a good time to finish, or to have some experience to move where you want to be. But having said that, it's never a good time to start. I started with the recession and I could never have thought about this situation when I started in 2012.
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vikdream - exactly, many people assume it'll be easy going after training but as you pointed out you never know. Best case is to get a degree, save $$$ and train part time while working full time - until a full time opportunity in flying comes around.
I just don't get how people can put their houses up as collateral for this ridiculously high priced 0-ATPL programs. Do it the safe way people! For half the cost and maybe a couple years of extra flying, you'll have no debt whenever you finish and you will have exactly the same accreditation (by doing it at your own pace). If you're rich sure no problem go to CTC.
I work full time (office job) and fly part time about 3-6 hrs per week, all ground school is done in the evening, i got nothing to worry about, stay away from banks and interest!
Just wanted to share:
Forbes Welcome
This trend will continue for the next years, more and more airlines are doubling up their fleets. The 1500 hr minimum cannot be decreased, the only thing left is that the airlines train their own cadets, get your licenses ready, and hope for the best!
#IranAir
I just don't get how people can put their houses up as collateral for this ridiculously high priced 0-ATPL programs. Do it the safe way people! For half the cost and maybe a couple years of extra flying, you'll have no debt whenever you finish and you will have exactly the same accreditation (by doing it at your own pace). If you're rich sure no problem go to CTC.
I work full time (office job) and fly part time about 3-6 hrs per week, all ground school is done in the evening, i got nothing to worry about, stay away from banks and interest!
Just wanted to share:
Forbes Welcome
This trend will continue for the next years, more and more airlines are doubling up their fleets. The 1500 hr minimum cannot be decreased, the only thing left is that the airlines train their own cadets, get your licenses ready, and hope for the best!
#IranAir
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hmmm - I'm not sure there is ever a good time to gamble £120,000 with one's (parents') house as collateral, when there are no guarantees.
It would appear to be true that hiring has picked up in the last few years, but you have to understand the economics of this. Aviation is a volatile market that closely follows macroeconomic trends. In short, if the economy grows, so does the aviation market (and thus demand for pilots). If the economy doesn't grow however...
Recently, aviation (and thus demand for pilots) has arguably outpaced overall economic growth. There are two main reasons for this: Firstly, interest rates have been effectively zero for quite some time. This means that borrowing is very cheap. In turn it means that airlines are able to get cheap credit to fund fleet replacement and expansion at low cost. As many airlines - especially budget carriers - operate very new fleets, they are essentially replacing/expanding now as interest rates (i.e. the cost of borrowing) are likely to increase in the next few years. When the cost of borrowing rises, fleets will stop expanding. Secondly, the oil price has been incredibly low - around $35 per barrel, compared to well over $100 a few years ago. The cause of low oil prices is more complex than I can be bothered to explain, but needless to say, the low oil price is temporary and has already lasted longer than many analysts expected. It will likely rise again soon though, and when it does, fuel costs will rise, which means ticket prices will too, meaning demand will tail off, meaning the need for new pilots will too.
In sum, much caution is needed. The above are trends that are clear, and we more or less can predict what the economy (thus aviation, thus demand for pilots) will look like, and though hiring prospects are good today, they likely won't be quite so good in 2-3 years' time, which is when someone who applies to a £100k school today will be trying to find a job.
The above also doesn't factor in "shocks" - i.e. less predictable things that might happen. What if they get rid of Schengen? What if Britain votes for Brexit? What if Britain leaves the EU and Scotland leaves Britain and everyone decides that you need a visa to travel in Europe again? What if Islamic State brings down a European plane, as they may have brought down a Russian one in the Sinai recently? These things are all unlikely, but if you're going to be a pilot, you need to understand what risk is, and to be able to analyse it.
It would appear to be true that hiring has picked up in the last few years, but you have to understand the economics of this. Aviation is a volatile market that closely follows macroeconomic trends. In short, if the economy grows, so does the aviation market (and thus demand for pilots). If the economy doesn't grow however...
Recently, aviation (and thus demand for pilots) has arguably outpaced overall economic growth. There are two main reasons for this: Firstly, interest rates have been effectively zero for quite some time. This means that borrowing is very cheap. In turn it means that airlines are able to get cheap credit to fund fleet replacement and expansion at low cost. As many airlines - especially budget carriers - operate very new fleets, they are essentially replacing/expanding now as interest rates (i.e. the cost of borrowing) are likely to increase in the next few years. When the cost of borrowing rises, fleets will stop expanding. Secondly, the oil price has been incredibly low - around $35 per barrel, compared to well over $100 a few years ago. The cause of low oil prices is more complex than I can be bothered to explain, but needless to say, the low oil price is temporary and has already lasted longer than many analysts expected. It will likely rise again soon though, and when it does, fuel costs will rise, which means ticket prices will too, meaning demand will tail off, meaning the need for new pilots will too.
In sum, much caution is needed. The above are trends that are clear, and we more or less can predict what the economy (thus aviation, thus demand for pilots) will look like, and though hiring prospects are good today, they likely won't be quite so good in 2-3 years' time, which is when someone who applies to a £100k school today will be trying to find a job.
The above also doesn't factor in "shocks" - i.e. less predictable things that might happen. What if they get rid of Schengen? What if Britain votes for Brexit? What if Britain leaves the EU and Scotland leaves Britain and everyone decides that you need a visa to travel in Europe again? What if Islamic State brings down a European plane, as they may have brought down a Russian one in the Sinai recently? These things are all unlikely, but if you're going to be a pilot, you need to understand what risk is, and to be able to analyse it.
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Sheba29 - agreed. Also remember to be smart and never depend on others whether that be your parents, EU, ISIS (
) whoever. Lookout for yourselfand make your own and play it safe (get a degree in something practical). I know a couple of friends that did an "Aviation Management Degree" came out with that and their CPL's but couldn't find work because of 9/11. They had to work crappy jobs for at least 4 years before they went back to flying, and they had a ton of debt to pay off with interest.
You cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Also many aspiring pilots i talk to think they gotta pay the full amount of training in one shot or in a specific time. You could complete your licenses in a year or so, or over 40 years, its up to you and your financial situation. Obviously 40 years is exaggerating, but i was told by my CFI to match my ground school (which is fairly cheap) with my flying otherwise you could end up flying way more hours for one license because your FI thinks you need refresher hours. So i only started when i had the $$$ o keep both ground and flying consistent.
I am sure airlines will continue to hire well qualified and experienced pilots, it may be easier than before, but the minimums will never change, or at least i hope not.
) whoever. Lookout for yourselfand make your own and play it safe (get a degree in something practical). I know a couple of friends that did an "Aviation Management Degree" came out with that and their CPL's but couldn't find work because of 9/11. They had to work crappy jobs for at least 4 years before they went back to flying, and they had a ton of debt to pay off with interest. You cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for the worst, hope for the best. Also many aspiring pilots i talk to think they gotta pay the full amount of training in one shot or in a specific time. You could complete your licenses in a year or so, or over 40 years, its up to you and your financial situation. Obviously 40 years is exaggerating, but i was told by my CFI to match my ground school (which is fairly cheap) with my flying otherwise you could end up flying way more hours for one license because your FI thinks you need refresher hours. So i only started when i had the $$$ o keep both ground and flying consistent.
I am sure airlines will continue to hire well qualified and experienced pilots, it may be easier than before, but the minimums will never change, or at least i hope not.
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With BA opening up DEP recruitment so soon after finishing the last tranche is it safe to assume, in EASA land at least, that there will be a gradual trickle down of jobs for the forseeable future. I know BA is not the be all and end all, but it's a decent yardstick to future employment prospects (isnt it?). Presumably people applying from the likes of flybe, FR etc. will leave job vacancies for entry level cadets. I hope so at least, as I'm planning on taking the plunge in the next 6 months.
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I would say it is better to be finishing training now rather than starting.
You can never know when it is a good time to start. Probably when there's a downturn and when it lasts for a while. But it is all just speculation, you cannot be sure.
You can never know when it is a good time to start. Probably when there's a downturn and when it lasts for a while. But it is all just speculation, you cannot be sure.
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I can not understand how it is possible, that intelligent and mature people can belive in this bogus pilots shortage. I was just stupid, so I can share my experience. If you love flying, good - spend this cash on university degree in law or become a good engineer and buy a nice microlight for the rest to fly on weekends
There is no pilots shortage, and I will say for everyone who wish to loose 70k - stay away from this
. This scam is run by CTC, FTE and others, only to drain your pockets !!
I currently have nearly 2000 hrs, FI, IRI, JOC, MCC and 100k debt and I can not find good work even on MEP ( not only me, many of my mates can`t too ) so with 250 hrs you can only decorate the wall with your licence.
Trust me, it is not worth to do any commercial training now or in the near future
There is no pilots shortage, and I will say for everyone who wish to loose 70k - stay away from this
. This scam is run by CTC, FTE and others, only to drain your pockets !!I currently have nearly 2000 hrs, FI, IRI, JOC, MCC and 100k debt and I can not find good work even on MEP ( not only me, many of my mates can`t too ) so with 250 hrs you can only decorate the wall with your licence.
Trust me, it is not worth to do any commercial training now or in the near future