FedEx's Face Saver - Forbes.com FedEx's Face Saver
Vidya Ram , 07.14.08, 10:30 AM ET LONDON -
Dutch mail company
TNT could be just the opportunity that
FedEx needs to get away from troubles in its home market.
TNT shares soared 29.9%, or 5.53 euros ($8.77), to 24.04 euros ($38.11), on Monday afternoon trading in Amsterdam after both companies refused to deny rumors that they were in takeover talks. FedEx was flat in morning trade in New York, at $73.93.
"As a matter of policy we do not comment on market rumors," a spokeswoman for TNT said.
As the fourth-largest express delivery service in the world, TNT has been widely seen as a potential takeover target for some time now, with FedEx the most likely bidder.
FedEx's recent poor performance, particularly in the United States, has only fuelled speculation that it would be looking for new growth opportunities. In mid-June, the company reported a quarterly loss of $241.0 million, driven by rising fuel prices and sluggish demand in the U.S. (See
"FedEx Doesn't Deliver")
Unlike rival UPS, FedEx has just a small presence in Europe, having slimmed down operations in the mid-1990s when the opportunities in the cross-country market were limited, and domestic market growth was sluggish.
But with a weak outlook for the U.S. market, and with TNT shares falling 28.0% over the past twelve months and trading at 8 times its EBIDTA, its valuation looks relatively cheap.
TNT's business is also a lot less vulnerable to the rising cost of oil. Most of its deliveries in Europe are made by road, unlike in the United States, where express deliveries are sent by air.
"FedEx has always made it a top priority to have a toe-to-toe presence in core UPS markets," said Christopher Combe, an analyst at Jeffries & Company in London.
But the FedEx move, reported by the
Financial Times on Saturday, could trigger a rival bid by UPS, which would be anxious to keep its rival out of Europe, Combe added.