Airlines face a pilot shortage, Boeing report says
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Airlines face a pilot shortage, Boeing report says
Airlines will need nearly half a million new commercial pilots worldwide by 2032 as they expand their fleets, an industry forecast released today predicts.
Boeing, the Chicago-based airline manufacturer, said today that airlines will have to hire 498,000 pilots — about 25,000 each year — to support all the new aircraft they are expected to add to their fleets over the next two decades. They also will need 556,000 new maintenance technicians, or about 28,000 a year.
Boeing's outlook, released today during the launch of the 787 flight training center at its campus here, predicts demand for pilots will grow in all regions except for Europe. The projected increase in pilot demand is greater than what Boeing had indicated in previous forecasts. It is particularly driven by airlines' interest in single-aisle aircraft, the company said.
But other factors are coming into play, analysts say. Thousands of pilots are retiring this year just as the Federal Aviation Administration is introducing new rules requiring new training and more rest in between flights.
The FAA announced a new rule last month requiring co-pilots, or first officers, to get 1,500 hours of flight time for their certification, up from 250 hours.
Starting next year, the minimum rest period before a pilot's flight duty will increase from eight hours to 10 and must include the ability to get eight hours of sleep in a row.
"The urgent demand for competent aviation personnel is a global issue that is here now and is very real," said Sherry Carbary, vice president of Boeing Flight Services. "The key to closing the pilot and technician gap in our industry is enhancing our training with the latest, cutting-edge technologies to attract and retain young people interested in careers in aviation."
The most pronounced shortage will be in the Asia Pacific region, where 192,300 pilots and 215,300 technicians will be needed, according to Boeing's forecast.
Even though demand has declined slightly in Europe, the region still will need another 99,700 pilots and 108,200 technicians.
North America follows with a projected demand for 85,700 pilots and 97,900 technicians. Latin America will be in need of 48,600 pilots and 47,600 technicians.
Analysts say the brunt of the shortage will be felt by regional carriers that operate half of the USA's scheduled flights. They simply won't be able to compete with the larger airlines.
"The major U.S. airlines are just beginning the longest and largest pilot hiring binge in history, and the 'wake turbulence' will be very disruptive to smaller flight operations who feed them pilots," says Louis Smith, president of FAPA.aero, a company that provides career and financial advice to professional pilots.
The pool of qualified candidates is drying up for everyone, says Robert Mann, president of airline consulting company R.W. Mann & Co. in Port Washington, N.Y.
The industry has historically hired former military pilots, he says.
"These days the military is short of pilots, not mustering them out, like in the post-Vietnam years through the 1980s," he says.
Meanwhile, the number of people willing to deal with the liability insurance and fuel and maintenance costs for a plane has declined.
All that, he says, has made getting a pilot's license "a huge expense, and the number of flight schools has likewise declined."
Poor wages also have not helped to attract qualified candidates, he says.
A first officer for a regional carrier, still on probation, typically makes $18,000 to $20,000 a year before taxes at first, Mann says. Flight school loans can reach $100,000, he says.
Katie Connell, a spokeswoman for Airlines for America, which represents the industry, disputes that there is a lack of qualified candidates.
"Long-term projections about pilot hiring are inherently subjective as they are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty," she says. "We expect the major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed, and are not expecting any shortage within the next few years."
Boeing, the Chicago-based airline manufacturer, said today that airlines will have to hire 498,000 pilots — about 25,000 each year — to support all the new aircraft they are expected to add to their fleets over the next two decades. They also will need 556,000 new maintenance technicians, or about 28,000 a year.
Boeing's outlook, released today during the launch of the 787 flight training center at its campus here, predicts demand for pilots will grow in all regions except for Europe. The projected increase in pilot demand is greater than what Boeing had indicated in previous forecasts. It is particularly driven by airlines' interest in single-aisle aircraft, the company said.
But other factors are coming into play, analysts say. Thousands of pilots are retiring this year just as the Federal Aviation Administration is introducing new rules requiring new training and more rest in between flights.
The FAA announced a new rule last month requiring co-pilots, or first officers, to get 1,500 hours of flight time for their certification, up from 250 hours.
Starting next year, the minimum rest period before a pilot's flight duty will increase from eight hours to 10 and must include the ability to get eight hours of sleep in a row.
"The urgent demand for competent aviation personnel is a global issue that is here now and is very real," said Sherry Carbary, vice president of Boeing Flight Services. "The key to closing the pilot and technician gap in our industry is enhancing our training with the latest, cutting-edge technologies to attract and retain young people interested in careers in aviation."
The most pronounced shortage will be in the Asia Pacific region, where 192,300 pilots and 215,300 technicians will be needed, according to Boeing's forecast.
Even though demand has declined slightly in Europe, the region still will need another 99,700 pilots and 108,200 technicians.
North America follows with a projected demand for 85,700 pilots and 97,900 technicians. Latin America will be in need of 48,600 pilots and 47,600 technicians.
Analysts say the brunt of the shortage will be felt by regional carriers that operate half of the USA's scheduled flights. They simply won't be able to compete with the larger airlines.
"The major U.S. airlines are just beginning the longest and largest pilot hiring binge in history, and the 'wake turbulence' will be very disruptive to smaller flight operations who feed them pilots," says Louis Smith, president of FAPA.aero, a company that provides career and financial advice to professional pilots.
The pool of qualified candidates is drying up for everyone, says Robert Mann, president of airline consulting company R.W. Mann & Co. in Port Washington, N.Y.
The industry has historically hired former military pilots, he says.
"These days the military is short of pilots, not mustering them out, like in the post-Vietnam years through the 1980s," he says.
Meanwhile, the number of people willing to deal with the liability insurance and fuel and maintenance costs for a plane has declined.
All that, he says, has made getting a pilot's license "a huge expense, and the number of flight schools has likewise declined."
Poor wages also have not helped to attract qualified candidates, he says.
A first officer for a regional carrier, still on probation, typically makes $18,000 to $20,000 a year before taxes at first, Mann says. Flight school loans can reach $100,000, he says.
Katie Connell, a spokeswoman for Airlines for America, which represents the industry, disputes that there is a lack of qualified candidates.
"Long-term projections about pilot hiring are inherently subjective as they are based on assumptions about airline growth that have often proved to be faulty," she says. "We expect the major commercial airlines will be appropriately staffed, and are not expecting any shortage within the next few years."
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Just put second officers straight into the right hand seat, easy! 150 hours is all you need, the equivalent of 1.5 months of a current KA captain's roster, that's more than enough.
Soon you will be able to go from abinitio to LHS widebody on "learnersworld", in your own time, at your own pace, just remember to print out your license before you log off or there will be an entirely new set of questions next time you log on to upgrade to captain, assuming you have completed 3 consecutive months of line operations.
That shortage will never come, experience requirements will probably drop now that we are asking for a lofty 150 hours and a hong kong ID.
Do we really need a hull loss or two to address this? It would be sobering for our passengers to know that most of our frequent flyers have been in an aircraft many more times than one of the pilots up the front. I'm sure that's not what they feel they are paying for, a training creche.
Soon you will be able to go from abinitio to LHS widebody on "learnersworld", in your own time, at your own pace, just remember to print out your license before you log off or there will be an entirely new set of questions next time you log on to upgrade to captain, assuming you have completed 3 consecutive months of line operations.
That shortage will never come, experience requirements will probably drop now that we are asking for a lofty 150 hours and a hong kong ID.
Do we really need a hull loss or two to address this? It would be sobering for our passengers to know that most of our frequent flyers have been in an aircraft many more times than one of the pilots up the front. I'm sure that's not what they feel they are paying for, a training creche.
Last edited by Captain Dart; 5th Sep 2013 at 23:40.
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...read the last paragraph....sounds just like CX doesn't it...!! (not)
United Recalls Almost 600 Pilots From Furlough
CHICAGO September 5, 2013 (AP)
By JOSHUA FREED AP Airlines Writer
United Airlines said it will call back almost 600 pilots who were furloughed during a time when fuel prices spiked and the Great Recession forced the airline to shrink.
Training for the returning pilots begins next month and will be completed by the end of the year, the airline said.
The returning pilots are the last of 1,437 United pilots furloughed in 2008 and 2009, according to the Air Line Pilots Association. United has about 12,000 pilots.
The recall comes as demand for pilots at the big airlines is finally beginning to recover after a decade of airline bankruptcies, economic disruption, and changing retirement rules that kept senior pilots flying longer instead of retiring.
In 2007, the U.S. raised the mandatory retirement age to 65, from 60. That means that in late 2012 pilots who had stuck around for those extra five years began retiring, creating demand for new aviators to replace them.
In addition, pilots will require more time off between flights under new federal rules that take effect next year, which creates a need for more pilots.
Delta Air Lines Inc. has said it wants to hire 300 pilots starting in November. American Airlines has offered recalls to all of its furloughed pilots, though some have exercised an option to defer their return.
US Airways said last month that it would recall the last 66 furloughed America West pilots. Those two airlines merged in 2005. The pilots had been laid off in 2008.
United had already recalled 342 pilots, the pilots union said Thursday, and 600 more took jobs with Continental after those two airlines merged in 2010. The final steps in merging the two pilot groups happened this week, meaning the airline can generally retrain the returning pilots on planes that formerly belonged to either airline.
"Our furloughed pilots will be returning to a much better contract and to an airline with a brighter and more confident future," said Jay Heppner, a United captain and chairman of the Master Executive Council of its pilot union.
United Recalls Almost 600 Pilots From Furlough
CHICAGO September 5, 2013 (AP)
By JOSHUA FREED AP Airlines Writer
United Airlines said it will call back almost 600 pilots who were furloughed during a time when fuel prices spiked and the Great Recession forced the airline to shrink.
Training for the returning pilots begins next month and will be completed by the end of the year, the airline said.
The returning pilots are the last of 1,437 United pilots furloughed in 2008 and 2009, according to the Air Line Pilots Association. United has about 12,000 pilots.
The recall comes as demand for pilots at the big airlines is finally beginning to recover after a decade of airline bankruptcies, economic disruption, and changing retirement rules that kept senior pilots flying longer instead of retiring.
In 2007, the U.S. raised the mandatory retirement age to 65, from 60. That means that in late 2012 pilots who had stuck around for those extra five years began retiring, creating demand for new aviators to replace them.
In addition, pilots will require more time off between flights under new federal rules that take effect next year, which creates a need for more pilots.
Delta Air Lines Inc. has said it wants to hire 300 pilots starting in November. American Airlines has offered recalls to all of its furloughed pilots, though some have exercised an option to defer their return.
US Airways said last month that it would recall the last 66 furloughed America West pilots. Those two airlines merged in 2005. The pilots had been laid off in 2008.
United had already recalled 342 pilots, the pilots union said Thursday, and 600 more took jobs with Continental after those two airlines merged in 2010. The final steps in merging the two pilot groups happened this week, meaning the airline can generally retrain the returning pilots on planes that formerly belonged to either airline.
"Our furloughed pilots will be returning to a much better contract and to an airline with a brighter and more confident future," said Jay Heppner, a United captain and chairman of the Master Executive Council of its pilot union.
There might be a boom but never shortage...certainly not in the jet market...
Some regional prop operators might face some desperate times like they did five to six years ago in Oz...
BUT THERE WILL NEVER BE A JET PILOT SHORTAGE!!!
Some regional prop operators might face some desperate times like they did five to six years ago in Oz...
BUT THERE WILL NEVER BE A JET PILOT SHORTAGE!!!
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positionalpor
Ok so not sure who has got to you but I know a few people in the various CTC hold pools and some have been told not to expect a position for at least another year...... so plenty of folks for eJ. Anyhow eJ are recruiting experienced folk just now.
P.S. sorry for the thread hi-jack....as you were.
P.P.S there is no shortage, never has, never will be. Supply is far out stripping demand 2 or even 3 fold. What there is a shortage of is sensible contracts.
Quote:
Pilot shortage - biggest joke of this millennium !
so how is it that CTC cannot keep up with Easyjet FO requests??
Pilot shortage - biggest joke of this millennium !
so how is it that CTC cannot keep up with Easyjet FO requests??
P.S. sorry for the thread hi-jack....as you were.
P.P.S there is no shortage, never has, never will be. Supply is far out stripping demand 2 or even 3 fold. What there is a shortage of is sensible contracts.
There is no US pilot shortage and there never will be. What there most definitely will be is shortage of US pilots willing to work for the crap wages and conditions currently on offer at all the US Regional airlines.
This was no problem when US Regionals could hire 250 hr wonders straight into the right seat and there was no shortage of applicants who would work for 17 K a year. Now that all copilots have to have an ATPL I am hearing the supply of new cannon fodder has dried up. The new FDTL rules are just going to exacerbate the problem as under the new rules flying the same number of revenue flight hours is going to need 6 to !0 % more pilots
Pinnacle, the current leader in the race to the bottom has the most unattractive pay and conditions and apparently has almost no current applications from pilots that are credible.
Since almost half of all the domestic emplanements are flown on regional tin it is hard to see how this segment will be viable in the long term with the new higher standards unless T & C's get significantly improved.
This was no problem when US Regionals could hire 250 hr wonders straight into the right seat and there was no shortage of applicants who would work for 17 K a year. Now that all copilots have to have an ATPL I am hearing the supply of new cannon fodder has dried up. The new FDTL rules are just going to exacerbate the problem as under the new rules flying the same number of revenue flight hours is going to need 6 to !0 % more pilots
Pinnacle, the current leader in the race to the bottom has the most unattractive pay and conditions and apparently has almost no current applications from pilots that are credible.
Since almost half of all the domestic emplanements are flown on regional tin it is hard to see how this segment will be viable in the long term with the new higher standards unless T & C's get significantly improved.
