B748i or A380 order?
Join Date: Aug 1999
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Realistically, as soon as the 779 was mooted, the 748 was dead in the water. The 779 is roughly the same length, has a slightly wider wingspan and is only slightly narrower (and can accommodate 10 abreast in Y class - something I hope CX doesn't avail of, but suspect it will!); it really does much the same job as the 748, with two engines.
It's pretty much a no-brainer.
The only question is "when"; I'd expect an order before the end of the year. The A388 won't happen; the A389 may happen, but Airbus is in no hurry to launch it.
It's pretty much a no-brainer.
The only question is "when"; I'd expect an order before the end of the year. The A388 won't happen; the A389 may happen, but Airbus is in no hurry to launch it.
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LH was the last holdout to the old adage, "Four engines for long haul." So the fact that they have finally caved on big twin economics probably seals the deal across the industry. Note however that the 777-9 will not be available for 7 years in 2020. That's a long time, and many things can happen in that period.
The 747-8 really serves as little more than a bridge to the 777-9 (and a great freighter). I still think there is the possibility of CX operating a limited number of Intercontinentals, maybe on lease, especially if the global economy starts to improve. The airplane has better economics than the 777-300ER, but does not compete well against the new generation of A350 and 777X.
As for the A380, I think a -9 version would ensure that the program never breaks even. While the economics may improve, the capacity risk to airlines just gets worse. EK would undoubtedly be a fan, but I'm not sure there would be any other takers out there.
The 747-8 really serves as little more than a bridge to the 777-9 (and a great freighter). I still think there is the possibility of CX operating a limited number of Intercontinentals, maybe on lease, especially if the global economy starts to improve. The airplane has better economics than the 777-300ER, but does not compete well against the new generation of A350 and 777X.
As for the A380, I think a -9 version would ensure that the program never breaks even. While the economics may improve, the capacity risk to airlines just gets worse. EK would undoubtedly be a fan, but I'm not sure there would be any other takers out there.
Join Date: Jul 2005
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Cxorcist. Dream on, not going to happen. At Cx we will not see a four engine plane flying passengers. If you love the 747-8 you are going to love the freighter patterns.
Doesn't have to be a single destination. There a number of Hot/High destinations in Africa and S. America that CX could expand to. With slot limitations as well there is more to consider
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4 engines also gives you the performance out of J'burg instead of leaving freight or pax behind
can be solved though by adjusting departure time to NOT be at the worst possible time of day!
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777X vs -8I and 380
Boeing 777X to spark mini-jumbo war | Aspire Aviation
This article is from March, but still an interesting read.
With the usual delays, it might be another 10 years until CX can get the first 777X, so why not lease a dozen -8Is until then?
This article is from March, but still an interesting read.
With the usual delays, it might be another 10 years until CX can get the first 777X, so why not lease a dozen -8Is until then?
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JNB Departure time
Look at the current timings
Depart HKG 2345 arrive JNB 0625 / depart JNB 1230 arrive HKG 0715.
If you bring the JNB departure time forward 2 hours then the 40% of passengers who connect from Cape Town and Botswana can't make it the same day and may require an overnight - you will loose business. Also the arrival time HKG would then be 0425 - passengers would love that. You would have to change all the arrival/departure slots not just the JNB departure slot and slots are like hen's teeth now.
If you change the departure until early evening (say 4 hours later) then the HKG arrival is the middle of the day HKG and a lot of the connecting flights have already departed and the passenger has to wait until the evening for the next round of connections.
Depart HKG 2345 arrive JNB 0625 / depart JNB 1230 arrive HKG 0715.
If you bring the JNB departure time forward 2 hours then the 40% of passengers who connect from Cape Town and Botswana can't make it the same day and may require an overnight - you will loose business. Also the arrival time HKG would then be 0425 - passengers would love that. You would have to change all the arrival/departure slots not just the JNB departure slot and slots are like hen's teeth now.
If you change the departure until early evening (say 4 hours later) then the HKG arrival is the middle of the day HKG and a lot of the connecting flights have already departed and the passenger has to wait until the evening for the next round of connections.
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AsiaMiles
I agree to a point but, the vast majority of the flight is loaded with people connecting to China. There are many connections through the day.
Also, we are doing a lot of flights these days arriving at 0430 so can't be all that bad.
Anyway...all above my pay grade. If they want me to depart at 1230 with its associated limitations, then so be it! I don't get the bonus anyway
I agree to a point but, the vast majority of the flight is loaded with people connecting to China. There are many connections through the day.
Also, we are doing a lot of flights these days arriving at 0430 so can't be all that bad.
Anyway...all above my pay grade. If they want me to depart at 1230 with its associated limitations, then so be it! I don't get the bonus anyway
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Froggy,
I think a lease for a small number of -8Is is very reasonable, not by any means likely but certainly possible since the -400s will be gone soon. So you're dreaming comment is a bit off. I personally would love to see all smaller airplanes with more frequencies = more pilot demand and greater leverage for the AOA. Now that's dreaming.
I think a lease for a small number of -8Is is very reasonable, not by any means likely but certainly possible since the -400s will be gone soon. So you're dreaming comment is a bit off. I personally would love to see all smaller airplanes with more frequencies = more pilot demand and greater leverage for the AOA. Now that's dreaming.
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Missing the point?
I think all of you may be missing the point.
None of the present incumbents will be around for much longer and so they are delaying any decisions on Aircraft purchase and Housing/Basing deals as long as possible.
All of these decisions will shortly be made from an office north of the border.
Got an interview in the desert? Go and have a look.
Got a number in the US? Use it.
I am of course speculating with no hard evidence.
None of the present incumbents will be around for much longer and so they are delaying any decisions on Aircraft purchase and Housing/Basing deals as long as possible.
All of these decisions will shortly be made from an office north of the border.
Got an interview in the desert? Go and have a look.
Got a number in the US? Use it.
I am of course speculating with no hard evidence.
Join Date: Jul 2005
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I agree with XRF8. When Beijing is making the decisions you will see the A380 arrive. You never here anyone getting bribed with a box of California wine ...french yes!
Decisions will not be made on merit but who gives the biggest envelope!
Decisions will not be made on merit but who gives the biggest envelope!
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JNBurg
JNB highest yield is crayfish and abalone, coming up from ape Town, destined for the Japanese market. The midday departure is the only one connecting to have the abalone in the market in the critical time window for farm to the table.
Rumour has it 150ish 77Xs (mostly replacements) and 90 more 380s (for a total of 180) for EK. Seems the A350 order EK has may be changed to 380s. No idea of the quality of the rumour though.
The Don
The Don
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Frogman,
I always wondered why CX had so many 330/340s. It's not far from Toulouse to the Riviera and those plush villas which the Chinese political elite seem to quite like.
I always wondered why CX had so many 330/340s. It's not far from Toulouse to the Riviera and those plush villas which the Chinese political elite seem to quite like.