Radiation Alert
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Radiation Alert
Get your lead hats out! I'm sure despatch will be all over it.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
NOAA Space Weather Scales
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTPX3
Serial Number: 25
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 07 1417 UTC
ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 07 1410 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
NOAA Space Weather Scales
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.
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X5 class eruption
Sorry to burst your bubble but
Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare This is one of the strongest yet an X5 class eruption on MArch 7th at 00.28UT
The eruption hurled a bright CME into space Although the CME is not squarely directed at earth it appears to be close enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9 This would add to the magnetic unrest already underway at high latitudes.
So an X5 eruption lets see if any flights are re routed????? I think not
Big sunspot AR1429 has unleashed another major flare This is one of the strongest yet an X5 class eruption on MArch 7th at 00.28UT
The eruption hurled a bright CME into space Although the CME is not squarely directed at earth it appears to be close enough to deliver a glancing blow to our planet's magnetic field on March 8-9 This would add to the magnetic unrest already underway at high latitudes.
So an X5 eruption lets see if any flights are re routed????? I think not
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Another email I received Yesterday
I received the glancing blow email on the 5th. This one issued on the 7th.
Any ULH flight use the polar routes or any re-routes? Anyone?
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with today's X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from today's
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 136
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 036/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 047/075-018/028-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 40/40/15
Major-severe storm 45/30/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/25/15
Minor storm 10/35/30
Major-severe storm 85/25/45
Any ULH flight use the polar routes or any re-routes? Anyone?
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 067 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Mar 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Region 1429 (N17E15) produced
an X5/3B long-duration flare with maximum at 07/0024Z. The event was
associated with type II and type IV radio sweeps and a full halo,
though slightly asymmetric coronal mass ejection (CME). The CME had
an estimated plane of sky speed of about 2200 km/s. During the decay
of the X5 x-ray event, Region 1430 (N21W00) produced an X1/Sf at
0114Z. Region 1429 dominates the disk with an area of about 1300
millionths. Observations show slight separation of the central spots
but the region continues to be large and magnetically complex;
multiple deltas are clearly evident as well as a dominant east-west
polarity inversion line. Region 1430 showed steady growth during the
past 24 hours. Region 1428 (S17W05) also showed growth during the
period but was relatively quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class level activity is expected to continue and
there continues to be a good chance for an additional major flare
and/or proton producing event from Region 1429. In addition, the
growth trend in 1430 suggests that it may also contribute to the
M-flare activity during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet to unsettled
until an interplanetary shock arrived. The shock was seen at ACE at
07/0334Z and was followed by a sudden storm commencement (SSC) at
Earth at 07/0421Z. Although solar wind speeds did not increase
greatly, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and density did
increase markedly and the Bz component had numerous intervals of
fairly strong southward orientation (with the strongest negative
intervals at about -15 to -20 nT). Geomagnetic activity increased to
minor to major storm levels following the SSC with some periods of
severe storm levels at high latitudes. The disturbance most likely
originated from the X1/halo CME that occurred on 05 March. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/0500Z and has reached a peak so
far of 1630 PFU at 1540Z. A greater than 100 MeV proton event also
occurred, beginning at 07/0405Z and reaching an apparent maximum of
69 PFU at 07/1525Z. Both of these events continue in progress and
are clearly associated with today's X5/Full halo CME event.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active initially on day 1 (08 March) but is expected
to increase to major storm levels with a likelihood for isolated
severe storm levels after the arrival of the CME from today's
X5/full halo event. The arrival time is estimated to be sometime
between 0600-1000Z. Minor to major storm levels are expected to
continue partway (6-12 hours) into the second day (09 March), but a
decline to predominantly active levels is expected for the remainder
of the day. Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the
third day (10 March). The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue through the first day and is also likely to
continue partway through the second day. The greater than 100 Mev
proton event is expected to slowly decline over the next 24 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 40/40/40
Proton 99/80/50
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Mar 136
Predicted 08 Mar-10 Mar 140/140/135
90 Day Mean 07 Mar 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Mar 010/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Mar 036/050
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Mar-10 Mar 047/075-018/028-007/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Mar-10 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor storm 40/40/15
Major-severe storm 45/30/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/25/15
Minor storm 10/35/30
Major-severe storm 85/25/45
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Delta reroutes and American lower altitudes
“We are flying alternate routes for seven flights,” Anthony Black, a spokesman for Delta Airlines, told FoxNews.com. Polar flights -- those with paths that cross over the North Pole -- can experience communications issues and even expose pilots and passengers to radiation.
To avoid that, Delta switched to preplanned alternate routes for the westbound flights from U.S. cities such as Atlanta, Minneapolis and New York City to Asian cities of Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Nagoya.
“It may be 15 to 20 minutes of additional time,” Black said.
Ed Martell, a spokesman for American Airlines, said the company was watching the activity closely.
"We are monitoring the solar flare activity, and while we’ve not changed any routings, we are using lower altitudes for any flights routed above 60 degrees North," he told FoxNews.com.
Read more: Sunstorm Watch: Planes rerouted as massive solar storm reaches Earth | Fox News
Has CX rerouted or replanned at lower altitudes?
To avoid that, Delta switched to preplanned alternate routes for the westbound flights from U.S. cities such as Atlanta, Minneapolis and New York City to Asian cities of Tokyo, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Nagoya.
“It may be 15 to 20 minutes of additional time,” Black said.
Ed Martell, a spokesman for American Airlines, said the company was watching the activity closely.
"We are monitoring the solar flare activity, and while we’ve not changed any routings, we are using lower altitudes for any flights routed above 60 degrees North," he told FoxNews.com.
Read more: Sunstorm Watch: Planes rerouted as massive solar storm reaches Earth | Fox News
Has CX rerouted or replanned at lower altitudes?
Thanks for the info.
But, my airline provides NO guidance as to what to do under these conditions.
I have read the info on NOAA and although it sounds complex, I couldn't find a section titled "This is what crew should do to mitigate risk".
So what to do? How far south is safe, how low is safe. When does G212 become safe for normal ops?
Anybody? Bueller?
But, my airline provides NO guidance as to what to do under these conditions.
I have read the info on NOAA and although it sounds complex, I couldn't find a section titled "This is what crew should do to mitigate risk".
So what to do? How far south is safe, how low is safe. When does G212 become safe for normal ops?
Anybody? Bueller?
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video of strongest storm in 5 years
