CPL student numbers - up, stable or down?

[Superpilot]

Hello folks,

Interested to find out from those that instruct, whether in the air or on the ground, what your view on new CPL student numbers is? Are less would be commercial pilots going through training compared to this time last year or even 5 years ago? As a long time ppruner, looking at both the Wannabe forums, it's clear to see that posts are at an all-time low (considering the last 10 years at least). Not sure if this is indicative of how many remain interested in the real world but would love to hear what you are seeing and experiencing.

Thank you.

[Whopity]

Surely the best place to look would be at the CAA licensing statistics; they issue the licences and know how many, the arerage instructor will have no idea!

[Superpilot]

I considered that but wanted to understand the perception instructors (who train the students after all) have. In addition to that I'm aware that the likes of easyJet force other pilots who hold European licenses to obtain a UK issued license. That I'm guessing would fall under 'Initial issue' thus destroying the statistics.

[Whopity]

Interestingly, there is no column for licence transfers which constitute a re-issue rather than an Initial issue. There is no indication of how they record it.

[PPRuNeUser0173]

Talking to other Instructors off the record my feeling is that there is a slight downturn in the UK CPL/IR student population at the moment at the Modular schools at least.