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Old 16th Nov 2016, 15:13   #281 (permalink)
 
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As an impatient investor, I fear the Bombardier CS jetliner programme may become another Vanguard/ YS-11/BAe ATR fiasco.. Those P&W geared fans have got to come on line! With spares...
We can only hope..https://www.runwaygirlnetwork.com/20...assures-pratt/
Unfortunately P&W has separate supply-chain issues that are impacting all engine deliveries, distinct from the PW1100G's technical problems.

Nearly half of P&W's suppliers weren't delivering parts on time or meeting quality standards. So the GTF production lines are very underutilized and only a limited number of engines can be made per month until they fix the supply chain.

With hundreds of key suppliers -- some of them probably facing their own supply chain issues -- this is not a problem P&W cans solve overnight. And I'm sure as they slowly get more parts in, P&W is prioritizing PW1100G deliveries for Airbus rather than the PW1500G engines for CSeries.

They should catch up next year but the delays don't help Bombardier obviously.

Over the summer Bombardier execs publicly stated that they expect to announce "multiple" significant orders for the CSeries by the end of this year. There's still time left before the holidays but not much. It's possible that issues at P&W and global events like the Brexit might have had an impact on at least the timing of prospective deals.
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Old 16th Nov 2016, 22:09   #282 (permalink)
 
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"P&W is prioritizing PW1100G deliveries for Airbus rather than the PW1500G engines for CSeries"

Rubbish!!
Airbus have sold more aeroplanes than Bombardier. It's as simple as that. Therefore, any sensible engine manufacturer is going to schedule engine deliveries based on what they can deliver within an agreed to delivery schedule and agreed to rate.
Suggesting there is somehow a devious "f**k Bombardier" attitude on the part of PW is preposterous.
Bellemare was a former VP at PW. C'mon. You can't be serious.

Willie
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Old 17th Nov 2016, 13:44   #283 (permalink)
 
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It's business, not personal.

Whenever there are supply chain disruptions, politics come into play. By politics I mean relative strengths of the companies. All else equal, larger companies with larger orders will always get priority over smaller companies with smaller orders.

Plus look at the downstream impact for each company. When you have someone like Al Baker at Qatar ready to trash talk to the media at every opportunity, you will get attention.

Consider that P&W will cut total engine deliveries by 25% this year, but deliveries to Bombardier will be cut by over 50%. That means Bombardier is taking a disproportionately large impact of the shortfall, or to put it another way, P&W is prioritizing deliveries to Airbus rather than to Bombardier.
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Old 17th Nov 2016, 18:23   #284 (permalink)
 
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I wouldn't think PW would want the industry starting to question their business ethics for taking such an approach to solving problems like this, if what you're suggesting were true. But, if that's what you think... Ok. I think it's simply a proportionate amount to each OEM.

Highlights from a recent newspaper article I read, said.
  • Pratt & Whitney, a long-time engine supplier to Bombardier, say that C Series engine deliveries should normalize next year. They planned to deliver around 200 engines this year, but that number is closer to 150. (What's that, 25% less)
  • Bombardier knew about the delay before it was announced in September, which is why they cut their 2016 delivery forecast from 15 to 7. They could recover their (delivery) schedule, next year.
  • The PW1524 engine has 800 parts on it, but it’s about 5 parts that are causing them pain. One of the five parts identified was the engine’s fan blades. It's taking 60 days to make the blades, but PW says it needs to be 30 (days). Apparently the fan blades are one of the last parts to go on the engine. Pratt & Whitney say they've got a lot of inventory waiting to be shipped.
  • Pratt & Whitney have said they would be able to deliver between 350 and 400 Geared Turbofans in 2017, in spite of the “huge ramp in production.” So, between 175 and 200 aircraft next year.
  • Bombardier have agreements in place to compensate for missing delivery dates that they expect to be honoured.

Willie
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Old 17th Nov 2016, 18:44   #285 (permalink)
 
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Willie you just proved my point.

150 of 200 is to TOTAL NUMBER of GTF engines P&W expect to deliver to EVERYONE this year (not just Bombardier). 25% reduction.

Yet Bombardier will now only get enough inventory for 7 of 15 aircraft. 53% reduction to BOMBARDIER.

Your numbers match exactly what I posted before and demonstrate that Bombardier is taking a disproportionately large impact of the shortfall. 53% > 25%. So thanks for that.
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Old 17th Nov 2016, 23:08   #286 (permalink)
 
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Comparing apple to oranges just for the sake of argument is futile.
The delivery difficulties are in particular with the supplier of fan blades.
PW1100 Fan diameter is 81 inches. P&W will deliver 150 out of 200
PW1500 Fan diameter is 73 inches. P&W will deliver 7 out of 15
Total: 150 apples, 7 oranges
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Old 18th Nov 2016, 10:14   #287 (permalink)
 
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peekay4

I believe I read a couple of weeks ago, (I haven't found the numbers yet) with the huge numbers of neos Airbus have sold, it only works out to around a 20% reduction for them.
So I have to agree with your numbers, I'd also have to say they are dis-proportionate. I still don't think it's "f**k Bombardier", I think it's what was negotiated and therefore acceptable to both parties.
There was also a comment or remark about the issues for the neo's GTF not being the same as Bombardier's in that same article.

With regard to your earlier comment about sales before the end of the year, this company is on life support (it seems), a sale before Jan. 1 would certainly help, but if they don't sell more C series by the spring, they're probably going to be on their last leg. We'll see.

Willie
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Old 18th Nov 2016, 15:20   #288 (permalink)
 
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They should to have enough cash to last a little while. They've just refinanced their debt due 2017 via new bond issuance -- although at a steep 8.5% interest rate (worse than many unsecured personal loans!) Plus maybe ~$1 billion "investment" coming from Ottawa soon.

High cost per plane, relatively cheap oil, glut of capable aircraft in the used market, and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions -- it's certainly not going to be easy for Bombardier for the next couple of years. But at least they know they can survive for a little, while which is better than their situation this time last year...
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Old 18th Nov 2016, 15:30   #289 (permalink)
 
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The delivery difficulties are in particular with the supplier of fan blades.
No, as I've mentioned before, they have huge supply chain problems across hundreds of suppliers, impacting all engine deliveries.

Of course some of the suppliers are more critical / troublesome than others, but it's not just a matter of one supplier of fan blades.

From WSJ, June 2016:
Quote:
United Technologies Chief Executive Gregory Hayes estimated that 44% of the company’s 1,600 suppliers—including the 500 to 600 who supply parts and materials for the engines themselves—weren’t meeting the company’s on-time delivery and quality control targets. “Forty-four percent is the challenge,” Mr. Hayes said. ...

Unlike previous generations of engines, 80% of parts for the geared turbofan will be made by entities other than Pratt and Whitney itself, then shipped and assembled in the company’s engine manufacturing centers in Connecticut, Florida, Canada and Germany.
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Old 19th Nov 2016, 04:21   #290 (permalink)
 
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The first three CS100s with Swiss have flown 1100 hours without incident and the first A Check took under 5 hours also without any problems - a really clean entry into service by any standards.
Bombardier To Send First CS300 To Air Baltic in 'Coming Weeks' | Air Transport News: Aviation International News
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Old 19th Nov 2016, 20:58   #291 (permalink)
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In my fantasy financial portfolio, a CBC headline would read "WestJet purchased a huge amount of Bombardier's new regional jet."

Yes, I do believe in Santa Claus..

Last edited by evansb; 20th Nov 2016 at 03:00.
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Old 1st Dec 2016, 18:51   #292 (permalink)
 
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Not much but better than nothing:

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Bombardier Inc. will sell two CSeries aircraft to the government of Tanzania, its first order in seven months for the commercial planes.

The total order is for two CS300 planes and one Q400. By catalogue prices, the order is estimated to be worth about $203 million U.S. The planes will be operated by national carrier Air Tanzania.
More: Bombardier sells two CSeries planes to Tanzania | Montreal Gazette
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Old 20th Dec 2016, 16:03   #293 (permalink)
 
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https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...canada-432560/

interesting, s this article actually has Bellemare admitting the delta & AC orders are net losses for Bombardier.
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