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Bombardier's New C Series Débuts in Toronto

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Bombardier's New C Series Débuts in Toronto

Old 13th Sep 2015, 18:16
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Bombardier's New C Series Débuts in Toronto

Bombardier's new C Series jet debuts in Toronto - The Globe and Mail
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Old 13th Sep 2015, 19:43
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Bombardier's New C Series Débuts in Toronto

If this was its début, did we imagine seeing it at the Paris Air Show in June?
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Old 13th Sep 2015, 20:26
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That must have been the 1:1 scale flying mock up😚
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Old 13th Sep 2015, 22:47
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Indeed, the Bombardier CS100 and CS300 have debuted at the Paris Air Show. CSeries jet 85% through certification process as company aims for delivery in first half of 2016. So far the aircraft have beaten the performance expected when the project was announced. The latest news: Tests Confirm Bombardier C Series Aircraft is Quietest Commercial Jet in its Class.
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Old 16th Sep 2015, 13:40
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Well, cutting through the corporate double-speak, it will be interesting to see if Bombardier can ever make a return on this aircraft.

The cumulative effect of delays, development overspends and lower than expected orders have created a vicious cycle so far... over $2Bn of new funding required in debt and equity alone, triggering a 70%+ drop in share price.

The upshot is that predators are already circling... the Chinese recently mooted an offer for the 'cash-cow' Rail Transportation division.

Many moons ago Pan Am sold off all their real estate holdings to prop up the failing airline. At the time, a few wise voices suggested they keep the real estate and sell the airline instead.

It may be heresy, but what's the betting the Chinese end up with the C-series instead???

We'll see.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 02:02
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What??
Not much thought put into that post.

Canada sells real estate, bankrupt oil refineries, and steel mills to the Chinese who, by the way, are very quickly wearing out their welcome in Canada.

As for aerospace, I doubt the Quebec Government or the Canadian Government would ever let the sale of Bombardier to any foreign interest, happen. I suspect the Americans might have a say in the fate of proprietary products like the Collins suite that is part of the aeroplanes avionics suite, amongst other things like American made computers found on CSeries? Especially with the Chinese "reverse engineering" abilities and computer hacking talents? Despite the C919 having essentially the same kit as the CSeries.

The Chinese build fuselage plugs for the CSeries. Hopefully, it results in a few sales in China. All 4 OEMs are or have been setting up in China, not just Bombardier for the market it represents.

Personally, I don't think the CSeries is going to be sold to any interested foreign party anytime soon. Rarely is it mentioned the mega bucks Bombardier will receive when the Global Express jets and Challenger corporate aeroplanes are delivered to operators like Vistajet, Net Jets, TAG, etc.. Those sales from two and three years ago provide a sizeable income for Bombardier at present so, try not to focus on one number. Take in the complete picture.
Like Airbus and the A380, whose total sales sit at 317 and are not likely to increase much further. I wonder what the break even is for that program? The CSeries sits at 243 and it hasn't even been certified yet.

If legacy airlines ever wish to recover flying services surrendered in the late 80s to the regionals because of the old inefficient DC9s and B737s of the 80s, then this aeroplane is the one aeroplane they need to take back those services.
We just have to wait for the legacy carriers to figure that out. Then it's bye, bye regional jets, regional airlines and the scope clauses that came with them.

BTW, I read where Bombardier have seriously cutback their RJ production.
I wonder...

Willie

Last edited by Willie Everlearn; 17th Sep 2015 at 02:12.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 09:10
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Rarely is it mentioned the mega bucks Bombardier will receive when the Global Express jets and Challenger corporate aeroplanes are delivered to operators like Vistajet, Net Jets, TAG, etc.
Kidding right?

The Global 7000 program is now delayed two more years to 2018. They also announced large cuts to the 5000 and 6000 production lines due to weak demand. And they've effectively cancelled the LearJet 85. All is not well in the business aircraft category.

As for the CSeries, they sold zero new orders at Paris. Zero! Meanwhile Embraer lined up 50 new firm orders for the E2.

The only reason Bombardier is desperately holding on on their train business is because they know they might not survive without it. But with US$9 billion in debt and burning cash like there's no tomorrow, they have no choice now but to spinoff the train business (in part or as a whole) to raise money. IPO, merger, JV, or outright sale.

Any further delay or mistake and Bombardier is heading to bankruptcy.

The Chinese don't want Bombardier's aviation business. But they are planning to massively invest in high speed rail and already have a couple joint-ventures with Bombardier. And by the way, Bombardier's train business is based in Germany. So if they do decide to sell or merge the train business there is only so much the Quebec or Canadian government can do to prevent it, especially if Canada enters a recession.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 13:11
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You're merely quoting the 'popular' press so, what research have you done on your own to get to more accurate facts.

Bombardier are undoubtedly burning through cash as you point out.
But, the Globals and Challengers of which I speak were sold two and three years ago which means money coming in when each aircraft is delivered, so despite their burning through cash, they do have a sizeable income to offset some of their losses.

You make it sound as If they have no income. The GX7000 and 8000 delay is a sensible management decision. ESPECIALLY at a time when corporate aircraft sales are sluggish and they're burning through cash. So, what's your point?

The handling of Learjet is also sensible. Selling it would make even more sense.
Both decisions are the result of a better managed company which finally has aviation experienced executives running the show, not automotive executives as was the case.

Aircraft manufacturers don't sell aeroplanes at airshows, they sell them well before and Bombardier knew there were no new sales to be announced before they even went to Paris. The big deal was for them to finally display their aircraft, as it always is and to generate interest. Remember, this aircraft was delayed primarily due to the engine fire, a Pratt & Whitney component. Not something due to Bombardiers direct control.

Embraer is no longer in the same class as the CSeries, but I'll let you figure out why. Nice aeroplane, I agree, but it's not a CS100 or 300. More importantly, the side stick doesn't dig into your knees in a turn.

The Airbus competition is the A318 while the Boeing competition is the B737-600. Neither of these two aircraft are in production and haven't been for more than 3 years.

Airbus sold 81 A318s and Boeing sold 69 600s since their certification. Both A and B aircraft are simply too heavy and not as economical as the C. That's 150 aeroplanes or A and B in total and Bombardier have 243 firm orders before certification.

So, you're simply bashing an excellent Canadian company without researching much.

The train order book is increasing again so, let's wait and see if the company sells the Transportation division or not. Things could easily and very quickly change for this company, despite politics.

Willie
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 13:45
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If you think the Canadian government would allow the sale of Bombardier to a foreigner they'd be out of office right away.

IMO the C-Series is a joke of an aircraft. Horrible strategy by Bombardier, would've rather seen a CRJ upgrade. My best friend works for them in their technical sales department i asked him one question - "why not Embraer, and if i want range and capacity why not a 737/a320?" Couldn't give me a straight answer other than passenger comfort and was laughing at the fact that they're selling at break even. The plane is 20 million more than an Embraer, same passenger capacity just longer range. The numbers speak for themselves:

As of 2008, 1401 Embraer orders compared to 243 C-Series. These are firm orders no options incl. With the new engines on the new Embraer's (and im sure their next strategy will be to tackle range), good luck to Bombardier, maybe the TTC will but a few planes for the execs....
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 15:49
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I don't think the Canadian Government would allow the sale of Bombardier to a foreign saviour either. But, you never know. Bombardier is a private company and never say never.

It's unfortunate that your "best friend" in "their technical department" can't answer your questions. Perhaps this explains why CSeries sales have been slow. Maybe he (and others like him) need to be more informed in their work. Either that or replaced. How could he/she not be able to answer simple question like yours.

"Why not Embraer?" Well, except for capacity, their cabins are much narrower. Until they are refitted with GTF, they aren't as economical. Even then they might not be as economical, as the aircraft systems weren't designed around the GTF engine, like the CSeries is. Nor are the Airbus and Boing new-and-improved NEO and MAX. Then there's range. Embraer without a new wing, well we'll see what they come up with for range.

"If I want range and capacity why not a 737/A320"? Well, it all depends on the role the aircraft is going to play. You could have suggested a B777 Instead. But the obvious answer is target sector. If you compare Boeings and Airbuses with the CSeries, your comparable is the A318 and B737-600, not NGs, NEOs or MAXs. This is the constantly repeated mistake analysts make when they bad mouth the CSeries. You're simply making the same mistake about this aircraft. If you're comparing the B737-800 or A320 with the CSeries then you really don't understand what market the CSeries is intended for.

Pricing of this aircraft has more to do with its capability and design than to simply scoff at the break even purchase price. Why should a manufacturer sell anything below cost? Boeing, Airbus and Embraer realize the threat this aircraft poses to their market. That plus the fact they (A and B) can discount based on sales numbers, make sense. When the order bubble bursts, those with the most sales will feel the pain most. Why? Because, between now and delivery, airlines could go out of business, not start up, or simply merge and have their orders cancelled. Only time will tell what huge sales numbers mean. Remember, orders are one thing. Receiving payment for delivered aircraft a whole other thing.

Numbers. Well, are the 1401 Embraers sold the total number of all Embraers sold or just the newest model? If it's for the GTF latest version then I have nothing to say except WOW! If this is not the case, then you should look at the total number all CRJ sales for a reasonable comparison.

I've never understood why Canadians can't encourage and support Canadian products or companies

I hope once you've flown the CSeries you'll realize this aeroplane is certainly no joke.

Willie
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 16:39
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Willie,

You can drink the maple-flavored Kool-Aid! Ut not the whole bowl, please.

The B717 and Fokker 100 didn't sell well, either. The Fokker 100 brought down the company. There just isn't a big market for 110-130 seat airliners anymore. Of all types, fewer than a 1000 built over the last 40 years. The A318 and short 737s are less efficient, but still no market.

The US carriers don't want that size plane because it is not profitable with mainline costs. Put in regionals, at regional costs, maybe; but ALPA will never allow it.

It'll be a technical succes and a market failure. Like the other French 100-seater--Dassault's Mercure.

GF
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 17:07
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galaxy flyer you are right, my main argument is that they didn't differentiate. Based on the orders thus far, its clear they're just picking up the scraps Embraer is leaving behind. Im sure its a great airplane but not what the company needs to be profitable.

Willie, im not going to disagree with you because that is your opinion but honestly when we talk 737 vs a320 then ok we have 2 aircraft with fierce competition due to the high demand of these size airplanes. BUT with regards to Emb vs Bomb. there wasnt really high demand, its Embraer all the way look at the sales.

No one knows what the economics of it all will be until lets say few years down the road for C-Series but 1400 orders vs 240, i think the airlines have made their decision. And yes its 1400 firm orders that are to be made and delivered vs 240. If i want to compare a CRJ, i'd do it with an ERJ.

Im in full support of Canadian business, but honestly this aircraft has entered the market a decade too late.

Have you looked into the MRJ? 223 orders thus far, similar airplane segment, same issue (but they have 3 US customers vs 1 for Bomb.). Its a slim segment that Embraer has already dominated. Numbers dont lie, it is what it is.

Bombardier stock at a buck 72, if anyone is interested.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 17:10
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Will the same percentage of the C-series be built under contract in China as the Q 400 ?
What percentage would be the tipping point at which it would be called Chinese ?


They should have opened a plant in Alabama like Airbus and orders would have been rolling in .
The company is having massive QA problems with the train work they outsourced to Mexico .


Once you lose control of QA ,the end is one accident away.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 22:01
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Sales made two or three years ago mean very little when the buyers with so called "firm" orders actually have out clauses, or decide to forego their deposits, or in many cases with Bombardier customers: are in or nearing bankruptcy.

But let's put in some perspective: Bombardier blew through $1.5 billion in cash just through the first 6 months of this year. That is multiples of the total profit expected over the entire VistaJet and NetJets deals combined, even if you assume all firm orders are delivered at list prices, with extremely healthy margins.

Yet Bombardier is now reportedly forced to sell business jets at steep discounts just to keep deliveries moving and get some revenue income.

The fact that they've had to slash Global Express production, cancel programs and implement huge layoffs is the cold hard reality of Bombardier's business jet division.

And just this morning we have more negative press on the CSeries prospects:

Bombardier Inc?s CSeries a tough sell as cheap oil revives used jet market | Financial Post

Can Bombardier still turn around the aerospace division? Sure. But they've put themselves in a very tough spot and will be lucky just to survive intact.
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Old 18th Sep 2015, 15:03
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It's rather naďve of you to think I don't read a good number of the financials, annual reports, and investment material on this company on a daily basis, both positive and negative, but alright, let's agree that, IF BBD management ARE as unaware as you aware individuals like to imply, of the realities facing BBD, then I agree, they really ARE in serious trouble and not just with the CS. Especially if they aren't or haven't taken steps to change certain realities.

I happen to believe they ARE taking those positive steps.

While I appreciate that we all look at this company from different positions, here's what I think most don’t appreciate about BBD.

The last 9 months have been very positive for BBD. New management has taken a number of positive steps, both small and large, while implementing necessary and some tough changes. That positive incline may be shallow at the moment but it is at least moving upward. Some of the things I see as positive are:


1. The company IS burning through a lot of cash. At this point in time, that's not a surprise nor is it news. But, this reality will likely continue for an indefinite period moving forward. That isn’t necessarily a good thing, I agree, except for the fact that they are committed to the CS program and will see it through to completion and delivery. In my estimation, that takes a lot of guts, financial resolve and commitment on the part of everyone at that company. A positive.


2. The CS will undoubtedly be certified soon. As an old guy, with a variety of type ratings accumulated over my career, including Airbuses and Boeings. They were amazing aircraft to fly. But the CS, in my opinion, is well ahead of some of these A and B types, and I would certainly hope to fly it one day.


3. Swiss will receive their first aircraft shortly after certification. (Swiss are not the only customer for this aircraft as someone previously posted above). Lufthansa continues to be a very active player in the development of this aircraft and they happen to own or manage a few carriers that just happen to be a very good fit for this aircraft. Lost sales to Embraer or Mitsubishi is merely a cyclic thing. Sales were likely lost due to the CS delay in certification as much as anything.


4. Whether you know it or not, the Paris airshow was a positive for BBD, undoubtedly not the sizeable POSITIVE many outsiders would like to have seen (including myself) through announced sales, but it has generated a lot more interest in the aircraft which should result in some of those interested parties signing up for a few of these aeroplanes.


5. They delayed the Learjet 85, which was a god send, and IMHO their Learjet division should be sold off before their Transportation division, it's a lemon and would put some bucks in the kitty to keep them afloat.


6. They've delayed the 7000 and 8000 at a time when new corporate aeroplanes sales are stagnant.


7. Performance and Range are better than predicted.


8. MRJ and E2 have serious Scope problems with their Regional Jets. The CS is NOT a regional jet and is ideal for the 130-150 pax segment, flown by the legacy carriers to take back flying lost to their Regional partners.

9. Thank gawd they have no intention of 'discounting' the aircraft just to sell their souls to get a few more units sold. A and B will kill their resale market when the MAX and NEO have been in operation for a few years thereby pissing off their existing customers. Good luck with that.

10. Fuel prices will rise again making it that much more of an attractive option.


We’ll see in about a year’s time where the CS is in terms of positive or negative industry impact. As for me, I like what I see but I’m not going to rush out and buy lots of stock right now. I'll wish them luck on the rocky road ahead because it's human nature for others to hope they fail.

Regional airlines are on the decline and both Embraer and Mitsubishi are in a very precocious position having bet on the relaxation of scope clauses. As the pilot shortage bites harder and harder into available pilot resources, ALPA and many others will be much firmer in their position on Regional Airline scope. Making the CS look an even more attractive option.



I find it interesting most of the negative posts here are from fellow Canadians...


Willie
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Old 18th Sep 2015, 20:06
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The company is having massive QA problems with the train work they outsourced to Mexico .
But nowhere near as massive as the disastrous productivity at a certain ON plant - that shall remain nameless... 33,000 man-hours per delivered train-set vs bid of 16,000. Announcement apparently pending there too.
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Old 18th Sep 2015, 23:47
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I guess there would be no issues with Siemens then had they been awarded the TTC contract instead but they out bid Bombardier by 500 million.
It must have meant they weren't really interested in the TTC tender or else they build one helluva street car too rich for T.O. residents. Besides, the TTC Chairman wanted to 'buy Canadian' (naive fool that he is).
Live and learn.
Wait.
You aren't suggesting the CS is of poor quality and workmanship, are you?
Nice try, but not even close.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Iqvrp2Z1eEc

Willie
P.S. FWIW, QA issues in Mexico have been long ago addressed. I suspect TTCs dissatisfaction with BBDs Thunder Bay assembly may not be as big an issue as it was.

Last edited by Willie Everlearn; 19th Sep 2015 at 14:22.
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