I have been in the airline business since 1966, and I don't believe there is one single UK airline still operating in it's ORIGINAL form since then, and that includes BA....merger of BOAC and BEA.
Aviation has always, and will be, a very volatile industry to be in. So in answer to your question, get ready for a rocky ride !
I think roster change is correct, in 1966 BMI was called BMA and went through further name changes between BMA BMI, It has also undergone several ownership changes between 1966 and today, and if rumour has it even more.
It has bought BMED to stay competitive in todays market trends of mid haul destinations.
It has changed its common fleet types to streamline its business since 1966.
Deveoloped a low cost business to keep up with market demands
Changed its service delivery on various routes to meet customer demands/profit constraints.
All in all, definately no airline that was operating in 1966 is in the same shape as it was back then.
Survivors- BA, Virgin, Flybe, Ryanair (technically Irish I know but to all intents and purposes...), probably EasyJet, BMI in some form or another but maybe bought out (Virgin/BMI anybody?), Monarch, Eastern.
Losers- Globespan, possibly Jet2, Air Southwest.
**This is just my opinion. I'm not trying to upset employees of Globespan, Jet2 etc**
Monarch have been Monarch since they started services in April 1968. How come everyone always forgets about Monarch? (I know you originally said 1966, but you get my drift....)
Loxley I think your being generous with your list of how many carriers will survive.
Monkeybusiness2, why do you think that? I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm genuinely interested why you think any of those airlines might not survive. Although I work in aviation, I don't work with an airline and from seeing your previous post you have worked for BA for 18years so I'm pretty sure you'll know more about it than me
My reasoning was as follows:
BA- It's BA, huge airline, huge market, world famous, just moved into a dedicated Terminal at EGLL.
Virgin- Similar to BA, large well-established airline, world famous with solid customer base.
Flybe- Bit shakier ground but they seem to be picking up the pieces where BA fell down, both domestically and for European routes (in the regions ie Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh etc).
Ryanair- Still filling their aircraft, ok the prices will increase as they adjust for fuel prices but they'll still be cheaper than almost anyone else so people will still use them.
Easyjet- As above but not quite as well positioned.
BMI- Cash rich (so I've been told thanks to a weathy owner). However limited scope for expansion now, especially long haul so maybe a merge with Virgin?
Monarch- Well run, cash rich Swiss owners. Solid airline with a good reputation (for passengers anyway).
Eastern- In a niche market, with relatively cheap to run aircraft with a solid, business customer base. Not only that, a lot of their business is generated by the oil industry, which as we all know is one of the still growing industries at this moment!
The above is based on snippets I've picked up here and there. I could be talking out of my ar$e and happy to be told so!
No of course you're not talking out of your arse! Believe me just because I have flown for 18 years really does not make me any sort of authority!
I just think if things are going to get as bad as the media and press make out, if anyone is going to be badly hit its going to be the low cost carriers that sometimes charge peanuts for fares. How are they going to be able to carry on?
The picture will change but the names may not. In particular I'm interested in Virgin, (Benny Hill pause!).
They are not part of any alliance and it is assumed are stagnating at present as Singapores 49% ownership is on the market as they have decided it is an under-performing investment.
It is a fabulous company, well marketed and presented with a good customer base, particularily in Upper Class. But just like BA when the cash cow premium atlantic traffic drys up, (as it is starting to do at present with the US reccession taking hold) and oil continues its speculative rise upwards where does it go? It cannot be allowed to die so will ownership change?
I'm not economic advisor, but i believe somehow, the locos will survive, jet2, easy, ryan. They'll find a way to cost cut (after fuel cost cutting is exhausted) they might rest routes, rest aircraft, lay off staff, anything to stay alive, (jet2 primarily as they have the configuration option) but dabble in the art of cargo flights. However they do it they'll find a way.
bmi - individual category as they are a bit of both, i think merger with Virgin is on the books and as Singapore look at their position in regards to Virgin, bmi might fill in that slot. But with the merge, not sure whether the name will stay? or would it go to Virgin Regional, Virgin Europe?
Big carriers, Virgin, BA, will see a possible need to cut flight prices, and admit they may have to drop potential profit to stay afloat.
Charters, TCook, Thomson, well i don't know about them, they could possibly go either way as people may need holidays or may have to not take them.
Naturally some small charters may not survive, Silverjet being the latest carrier to be swallowed.
What would the feasability be for an airline to run close to zero profits during the most dire moments, to be able to come out of the other side?
Once again, no economist, and so take my views with a pinch of salt please.
Interesting to read, I can only say about Monarch having worked for them in the distant past they seem to able to survive anything. Whilst I worked for them it was a case of don't mention the M Italian word as that was were the money was coming from to buy new aircraft.
Those of you speculating about the future of BMI seem to have overlooked the structue of BMI's ownership and the potential for LH to become the major shareholder between December 2008 and June 2009 depending on what SMB decides to do.
As for a Virgin (50% owned by Singapore Airlines) merger - dream on
As I am fairly low on the Virgin seniority list I do worry as to what the future holds!! Given all the redundancies in the USA (Continental) and Qantas scaling down some operations, the next 12 months could see a huge shake up within the UK aviation industry.
This thread asks more questions than there are answers, such as;
Could the government let all these airlines go to the wall?
What happens to all the a/c on the ground and who buys them which would have a huge impact on airbus and boeing as new a/c are not needed.
How long do we think this down turn will last?
It is not in anybody's interest for lots of airlines to go under, rather there will be mergers and acquisitions whilst the bigger airlines and cash rich ones use this period of uncertainty to gobble up the weaker placed operators. And expect more 'spin' and 'posturing' on the news from the usual characters trying to manipulate the facts to twist the publics perception to a view that serves themselves, i.e, the Irish one! And note how absent from the media the bearded one has been. The fact that the king of self publicity has been so quiet should indicate where VS are.......... and it aint good!
There will be a large number of parked a/c. Many of those to be parked are however 15-20 years old, many were due to be replaced anyway as they cannot be as fuel efficient as companies would wish. United are to lay up up to 130 old aircraft and scrap a large number of routes. As for the LC's I am not sure that they can all survive as surely they have no slack to cut. At BA we expect to see a number of route closures this winter and a reduction in the numbers of daily flights. If a new company can be dragged into 'Oneworld' that airline may be able to take a number of our slots so expect to see a new partner form the Far East or nearer. BA has a several hundred consultants so expect to see them sacked and investment, training and refurbishments cut. Cranebank will be closed within 5 years and its activities decanted to off airport locations going wherever it is cheap.
Is Cranebank a large financial burden then? Don't have much information with regards to BAs setup. Are they really looking to offload Virgin as well? I'd have thought the branding and subsequent PR would be an asset to keep hold of but I guess, current climate, it's very much needs must. Anyone any other thoughts? Interested in more thoughts as usual
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