Bonza has its AOC
Correct.
If you dial into the commentary pushed in recent times, it’s all about polishing a turd to would be investors who are next in line to keep a would be ponzi operation flourishing.
‘750,000 seats sold’, ‘Record numbers’ ‘Growth Growth Growth’, ‘Stimulating’ ‘Huge Demand’, ‘Unseen before’ ‘approaching breakeven’ ‘10 aircraft by years end’
Meanwhile someone then engages an administrator to ‘have a look’ inside, who are only interested in two things, cash on hand and days until insolvent.
If you dial into the commentary pushed in recent times, it’s all about polishing a turd to would be investors who are next in line to keep a would be ponzi operation flourishing.
‘750,000 seats sold’, ‘Record numbers’ ‘Growth Growth Growth’, ‘Stimulating’ ‘Huge Demand’, ‘Unseen before’ ‘approaching breakeven’ ‘10 aircraft by years end’
Meanwhile someone then engages an administrator to ‘have a look’ inside, who are only interested in two things, cash on hand and days until insolvent.
Tick, tock...
Flair has supposed to be going the same way, but for a couple of years now
True AB have had their issues
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
I believe that they
1) Launched 25 routes and hoped most would do well and some would fail
2) Assumed that they would lose money for a couple of years made worse with the aircraft supply issues which would have cost a bomb in both coin and PR and would not have been in their business plan
3) To a degree, they have avoided a head to head war with QF, which ZL is still trying to recover from
I trust that they are looking at the fundamentals and projections, factoring out the issues with the CASA and delayed extra aircraft issues to see where they actually stand
True AB have had their issues
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
I believe that they
1) Launched 25 routes and hoped most would do well and some would fail
2) Assumed that they would lose money for a couple of years made worse with the aircraft supply issues which would have cost a bomb in both coin and PR and would not have been in their business plan
3) To a degree, they have avoided a head to head war with QF, which ZL is still trying to recover from
I trust that they are looking at the fundamentals and projections, factoring out the issues with the CASA and delayed extra aircraft issues to see where they actually stand
True AB have had their issues
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
777 also don’t supply the tails anymore. I think it was mentioned last year they had a falling out with Boeing, then the deliveries stopped, read into that what you will, they have not received a single delivery since.
This seems to be purely a cash issue. What happens next all depends on who can supply the next injection. They will need a few hundred million to navigate the coming years.
No doubt much is currently happening behind closed doors to save the model. Is it worth saving is the question.
Flair has supposed to be going the same way, but for a couple of years now
777 Partners also has a lot more tied to Flair, ie loans. Depending on how much revenue Bonza has, they can likely exit Australia as a relatively unscathed secured creditor. Different story in Canada as they only hold 1/4 but have very large loans tied to Flair, one masthead reported something like half a billion.
Last edited by nomess; 26th Apr 2024 at 05:36.
You can't scale your way to success if your basic business model is flawed.
And tape, red or otherwise, similarly does not change basic business dynamics. A loss-making model ushered promptly to market is just as bad as a loss making model that is delayed in getting to market (you could, in fact, make a case that the latter is marginally preferable, in that losing money next week is better than losing money today).
Bonza essentially went all-in on the premise that there was sufficient hitherto untapped demand for regional-regional travel to sustain a profitable low cost carrier business. That has proven to be incorrect. While there is evidence of untapped demand for regional-regional travel being stimulated, the data shows that it is not of sufficient volume to sustain a break-even, leave alone a profitable business.
And tape, red or otherwise, similarly does not change basic business dynamics. A loss-making model ushered promptly to market is just as bad as a loss making model that is delayed in getting to market (you could, in fact, make a case that the latter is marginally preferable, in that losing money next week is better than losing money today).
Bonza essentially went all-in on the premise that there was sufficient hitherto untapped demand for regional-regional travel to sustain a profitable low cost carrier business. That has proven to be incorrect. While there is evidence of untapped demand for regional-regional travel being stimulated, the data shows that it is not of sufficient volume to sustain a break-even, leave alone a profitable business.
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True AB have had their issues
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
Mainly with CASA red tape, but also the supply of tails from 777
Bonza is a basket case of a company. CASA doesn’t cause a company to withhold refunds until the various Offices of Fair Trade step in and force them to.
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Mick, I don’t believe they went into this with a Plan B either.
Jordan was incredibly committed to this model. No denying that, incredibly passionate. That’s great, but what if it didn’t work? It comes across to me, in that it wasn’t an option for it to fail, it was to succeed. They now have a heavily bleeding business, flawed business model, no access to more aircraft, and customer sentiment down the toilet. I just don’t see how anyone could market this to someone.
Tiger had about ten different strategy changes over its 15 years and blew $800m. Sydney didn’t save Tiger either, doubt it’s going to save this place either.
Jordan was incredibly committed to this model. No denying that, incredibly passionate. That’s great, but what if it didn’t work? It comes across to me, in that it wasn’t an option for it to fail, it was to succeed. They now have a heavily bleeding business, flawed business model, no access to more aircraft, and customer sentiment down the toilet. I just don’t see how anyone could market this to someone.
Tiger had about ten different strategy changes over its 15 years and blew $800m. Sydney didn’t save Tiger either, doubt it’s going to save this place either.
The Canadians are back in town apparently, looks like they might be taking their aircraft back home. Went up for a test flight today.
They are also starting to cancel flights this and next week. I guess crew numbers are starting to thin out.
Seems like they are in the palliative care stage now.
A very select few insurers offer insolvency protection, if you have a big dollar amount tied up in bookings I’d be taking that cover out pronto. Worth the investment. The time to apply for that was yesterday.
They are also starting to cancel flights this and next week. I guess crew numbers are starting to thin out.
Seems like they are in the palliative care stage now.
A very select few insurers offer insolvency protection, if you have a big dollar amount tied up in bookings I’d be taking that cover out pronto. Worth the investment. The time to apply for that was yesterday.
Last edited by nomess; 29th Apr 2024 at 07:47.
short flights long nights
This does not look good.
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Flight is just to prevent additional maintenance from aircraft being in storage for a certain period of time. Aircraft not going anywhere, for now at least.
Operations have now ceased.
Good luck to all the front line teams, once again, screwed over by incompetent management. The front line guys are legends, I will give the company that. Not to your fault, and you guys are what gives this profession the respected name it has.
I hope CPs from around the country reach out to this group.
You didn’t have to turn up to work in recent weeks. But you did. Full credit to you lot.
Tim Jordan rides off into the sunset with Michael James….
Good luck to all the front line teams, once again, screwed over by incompetent management. The front line guys are legends, I will give the company that. Not to your fault, and you guys are what gives this profession the respected name it has.
I hope CPs from around the country reach out to this group.
You didn’t have to turn up to work in recent weeks. But you did. Full credit to you lot.
Tim Jordan rides off into the sunset with Michael James….
Last edited by nomess; 29th Apr 2024 at 21:43.
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Is it all over?
Looking at this morning’s operations:
AB607 MCY-NTL
AB623 MCY-ROK
AB1755 OOL-LST
AB1009 MEL-GLT
AB1051 MEL-ROK
Plus all the return legs, cancelled.
Looks like some news channels are picking it up too. Is this it for them?
AB607 MCY-NTL
AB623 MCY-ROK
AB1755 OOL-LST
AB1009 MEL-GLT
AB1051 MEL-ROK
Plus all the return legs, cancelled.
Looks like some news channels are picking it up too. Is this it for them?
Their website is still up but you can’t book anything. I’d say very predictably that’s all she wrote.
thoughts with you all.
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