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Old 10th Dec 2016, 12:15
  #101 (permalink)  
 
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TuckMack there will only ever be a artifical pilot shortage in Australia never a real economic shortage. That is because immigration law blocks potential applicants. If anyone in the world could apply to any position in an Australian Airline there will be a permanent queue around the block as Australia is a desirable place to work.

So from a pure economic theory perspective the pressure will be on airlines in the Middle East. Asian carriers will just keep pumping out locals but the ME airlines don't have the population for that. Australia and NZ are always going to have people moving here.

The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreignors through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.

Also if there is a real worldwide shortage as you say how do you explain Norweigen International who are about to go in and under cut all the US carriers on the Atlantic on a pretty low ball contract.
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Old 10th Dec 2016, 18:59
  #102 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks Darkknight,

I was trying to broaden the discussion. There are big forces at play in the Western world, in demographics is destiny!You are most likely correct most will not research and read.

Neville thanks for your opinion as to how it will play out. I don't know exactly what Australia's crop of pathetic political representatives will do.Australia is already hollowed out to real estate interests, quick buck artists and with no cohesive national interest policy it faces a real choice between the USA and the new political overlords in China.

Nonetheless if I were Norwegian management I would expect to try it on too: Their motivation largely the same as any management, minimise cost.

Notwithstanding anything else, supply and demand will be artificially constrained by 457 visas, MPL and any other concoction for a while.Demographics are far bigger than most believe. Everyone's opinions are contextual, based upon their experience and age, mine too. We all tend to see things through our own experience, but this problem, of a lack of skilled workers in aviation, is not confined to any country, it is a global market. Whilst government policy may constrain a market, ultimately it matters little in the longer term. It was brewing from the conclusion of the Second World War, but it is certainly becoming a valid concern for western governments worldwide.. Supply will meet with demand eventually.

What I am trying to show, supported with fact is that all western economies have the same problem. Aging work forces are a symptom of Demographics. Unless you have sufficient echo generations (after the most numeric generation) economic pressures abound as tax revenues fall. You can already see it at play in Australia.

  • The 'future fund' to create a way to fund previously unfunded yet huge public service pension entitlements.
  • The raising of the pension age. (keeping older people at work longer)
  • The rising pressures on the health budget
  • Aged care coming into focus
  • Australia's treasurer for the real estate lobby Scott Morrison (he worked at the Property council for nine years) looking at 'budget repair', these cries will become more visible in future budgets. They may even eventually have to reform negative gearing and superannuation concessions, much to the displeasure of the bolted on baby boomers.
It isn't just Australia. The USA has similar problems. Many pension funds are under demographic pressure, as redemption rates rise.


Dallas' Police and Fire Pension is running out of money - Business Insider


The funds require more people paying in than redeeming. Declining birth rates and entitlements promised by governments are often times not funded and simply kicked down the road for the next guy to deal with. This is something politicians excel at.


Aviation is no different to any other market, Oldmeadow and all the IR practitioners will be sweating this stuff as are governments as they wonder how to kick the can to the next guy when the pressure is rising.



There is plenty of factual information out there:


Australia’s Demographic Challenges — A More Flexible and Adaptable Retirement Income System


3101.0 - Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2015


http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat03.pdf


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...n/february2016



The BLS (USA), the esteemed ABS in Australia and the ONS in the UK. There is abundant literature explaining the magnitude of the problem.



There is also a lot of information regarding pilot training rates, both in the Asia pacific region, the USA and Europe. Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.


The Asian and the Middle East carriers are also competing in a global market, pilots of required aptitude are expensive to train and may need to increase remuneration further, inducing increased supply. They may do a lot of things that entice supply from Australia, a traditional source of high quality pilots.. It depends how vital (strategic) they deem a pilot to their airlines, something Australian IR practitioners have undermined and indeed pilots themselves in previous decades, but as I alluded to Oldmeadow's context is based on his own experience, changing sides in 1989 and in those days aviation was indeed a more secular business.



Suggesting that pilots will be exempt from those opportunities and confined to Australia, by some bizarre form of protectionism, I think is a little extreme.

Globalisation does work both ways and you may well see further commuting opportunities (contracts) from Australia, into Asia to address their supply concerns. After all, as you quite rightly describe, living in Australia is 'desirable' and perhaps a commuting contract of substance may emerge to address a shortage, that brings Australian employers away from their myopic view of airline pilots and into a global market.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 01:34
  #103 (permalink)  
 
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The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreignors through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.
If that's a local pilot shortage I assume it's for regionals and lesser paid Australian flying jobs that would see a need to attract foreign 457 sponsored labour?

There must be two thousand or so Australian expatriate command rated pilots abroad and as Tuck Mach alludes to, it will be creative carriers abroad tapping into the resource with commuting contracts if we truly do have a pilot shortage. Even more creative companies may stem their attrition with Australian bases.

The ATO will be onto loose tax arrangements and residency issues well before any negative gearing reforms BTW.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 02:43
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Australia has very few pilots training to be commercial pilots and many of those are foreign anyway. There are significant impediments to learning to fly, not withstanding the cost, the remuneration has been constrained in such a way, that the reward is diminished, this has feedback implications.
Agreed: being partly involved within training the figures already illustrate this. Couple this with CASA's latest brilliant move introducing Part 61 Licencing particularly where great difficulties are found creating/maintaining Instructor Ratings including Simulator Instructor ratings. Where in the past many of these were filled by retired pilots the current hassles and poor remuneration do not make it worth the effort.

The way it will probably play out here is through hiring of foreigners through 457 program which will circumvent any shortage.
If that's a local pilot shortage I assume it's for regionals and lesser paid Australian flying jobs that would see a need to attract foreign 457 sponsored labour?
Already this is increasingly occuring with employers regularly manipulating the scheme. Employers communicate with each other comparing notes how the scheme can be manipulated to their advantage. Couple this with an overworked Department of Immigration and Border Protection failing to vet and check all applications then 457 pilots will increase rapidly. Interestingly, as shown in another thread, their appears to b a steady stream of pilots moving to USA commuter jobs filling shortage experienced there.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 06:04
  #105 (permalink)  
 
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Tuck Mach if you read those articles you posted on the so-called US shortage, they are actually referring to the regional airlines who are going to be short not mainline carriers.
Now that situation is not a real pilot shortage but a labour shortage at a particular price point. It actually has more to do with how the US Regionals are structured than it does the supply of pilot Labour. A easy way around that, would be to abolish the Regionals all together and move ALL flying onto the major airline's AOC. If that happened you would find that the so-called labour shortage would go away overnight. Instead the regionals are now trying the foreign labour option.

Personally I think the squeeze will be on the Middle Eastern Carriers, for whom commuting contracts would actually do damage to their local economies and would have very negative local political ramifications.

Last edited by neville_nobody; 11th Dec 2016 at 06:18.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 07:38
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I think some of you are arguing about the colour of the suede on the chairs in the first class lounge of the Titanic. Within a lifetime there will be no Australian Airline system. We will have Chinese pilots on $4,000 per month.
We have a generation of under achievers in school, a vast number of which will never be employable. The brightest are now and will continue to head overseas where their skills and knowledge are valued.

Our government, on both sides of the political fence seems hell bent on treason to the people it governs, the very same people that worked to make something of this country.

Only last week I was trying to get dental work for my elderly mother in law, we could pay now the sum of $8,000 or wait a minimum 7 years. Yet the refugee lady in the waiting room who had been in the country a few months was getting it done for free……right now, no waiting. You can be prosecuted for saying that Muslims are bad, but the government cowers when they hold up placards “ kill the unbelievers”. No one has the guts to repeal 18C of the discrimination act, nor the guts to use it when “a certain religion” willfully violates it.

Even corporations are in on the it, sacking people in vast numbers so they could move the office off shore.

You only have to look at the governments own projections out to 50 years of government revenue v income. Social security costs are rising exponentially while revenue from taxes is falling.

Manufacturing in this country is becoming a thing of the past. In 2018 Australia will be the only large 1st world country that does not build cars. The DE-industrialisation of Australia will be almost complete.
Eventually we will run out of minerals, or other countries like Brazil will undercut us. They are already doing that. Digging holes in the ground is one of our few remaining sources of national income. We seem to have dropped the ball in the food game.

Soon after the government will be unable to pay it’s bills. We won’t be able to import anything when the Dollar slides to 35c US. The pain that Greece has been feeling will visit us. We are heading for Bankruptcy, yet post after post on Facebook proclaims that “ we are the best country in the world”. Clear to Land’s post nailed it on the head. Australians are very naive about their past, themselves and the future.

Last edited by Guptar; 11th Dec 2016 at 07:39. Reason: Spelling
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 07:50
  #107 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting you mention dentists, in my part of the country at least, there is an oversupply of them now. Not sure if the schools pumped too many out or too many were imported but it's more competitive than it used to be.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 08:58
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Guptar,

You may well be right, Australia has been hollowed out. Andrew Robb resigning as a trade minister to pop up a few months later working for the Chinese company Langridge, naturally one of his last official roles was completing a FTA with China.
John Howard rather cleverly, 'stopped the boats' but opened the floodgates to refugees coming by aircraft, with intent to pump property prices. No infrastructure and now Australian cities are gridlocked. Labour continued the racket. Who could forget McFarlane who went from industry minister to a representative of the mineral's council. Of course don't forget that little Persian grub Sam Dastryari, quite comfortably having the Chinese pay a personal bill, step out behind the position of the party..soft power pushes everywhere.

However, short of an implosion, Australia and all western economies face a big problem: Aging work forces, big unfunded entitlements and not a clue how to address it.

Neville you are quite correct, many of the airlines increasing remuneration and struggling for applicants in the USA, feed the majors, the problem they have is who feeds them? This is precisely my point. I would also point out that Southwest is hardly a regional. Neither is Delta. Here is their latest response to this imagined shortage:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ots-union-says

Further, taken from the text of one article(my emphasis);

'That looming pilot deficit will soar to 15,000 by 2026, according to a study by the University of North Dakota’s Aviation Department, as more captains reach the mandatory retirement age of 65 and fewer young people choose commercial aviation as a profession. And that’s in an industry where captains on the biggest international jets average more than $200,000 a year -- with some pushing $300,000.
A pilot shortage is already the bane of the often low-paying regional carriers that ferry passengers from smaller airports to hubs operated by American, Delta and other major airlines. That’s worrisome for the major carriers because they typically use the smaller operators as a pipeline for hiring.

QED

Show me a western economy not facing an aging demographic?
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 09:19
  #109 (permalink)  
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Guptar, I thought I was the only one who could see what is plain as the nose on our faces. We are breeding them in Australia faster than we can smother them.

The country is totally apathetic to reality...to paraphrase Lee Kuan Yew "the poor white trash of Asia" is becoming a reality. We have taken away any identity in the name of political correctness and instead of heroics and mateship as witnessed in years past we are now scared of our own shadow, cowed and beaten we are in complete denial.

You are right, it is nothing short of treason, validated by 10 years of completely incompetent governments led by shallow vacillating leaders.

Last edited by E&H; 11th Dec 2016 at 10:42.
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 19:29
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No E&H you are not alone.
A political class of party hacks, the parliament infested with lawyers, self important smug and corrupted.
A smug boom generation comfortable in rising house prices, funded by dirty Chinese fiat, taking health care cards and pensions as 'entitlements' (whilst sitting on huge unrealised capital gain) their children saddled with debt can't find a job. I remember sloppy Joe Hockey telling Australians to get a better job. This is repeated in the west too: Economies hollowed out by globalisation enriching a few at the expense of the many. What happened to society?

I am glad I am not part of it.

It will be funny to watch those political (and I use the term deliberately) 'elite' deal with a rising China, owning chunks of our country versus our obligations under ANZUS should Trump push back in the South China sea. Marriage plebiscite anyone?

So I would fully expect the trend to continue 457 visas and regulatory capture to be the norm. Fortunately many pilots will have alternatives elsewhere and perhaps strategically clever foreign carriers will look to Australia to derive their required supply and good commuting contracts or indeed an Australian basing pops up...
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Old 11th Dec 2016, 23:38
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Tuck

Your last post is difficult to follow and twists about from a politics of envy to the politics of entitlement. Geo-politics in the South Chine Sea for another time and deserves expansion beyond an activation of the ANZUS treaty.

You really do take issue with Australian property and in this post you sway toward the envious side of politics inferring a capital gains tax on the family home? Now, most Australian pilots should own their own home by retirement and having been paid tax their working life it's rubbish to slug a CGT or forced sale as part of an access to retirement benefits.

Often, the debate on rising house prices and negative gearing is loudest from those who are not players, and fail to understand the significant benefits to the economy. They also fail to understand the balance sheets of many property investors where there is modest advantage in negative gearing but this policy does provide incentive to provide housing to other important areas of the economy such as tourism or the foreign education market. Foreign investment is a positive and will need to be sustained unless costs of welfare and other high-cost government budget expenditure addressed. As an expat, I don't take issue with somebody coming to Australia, buying a house that pumps huge taxes into government coffers and often living a self-funded happy ever-after. As opposed to taking in illiterate refugees, from parts of the world that require social integration at a cost even this country can't really afford if done properly.


But back to the pilot shortage. Cost of living rises in Australia and rises of living standards in the developing world may put a lid on the attraction of Australia as a place for foreign pilots and the 457 visa. I've noticed this since being abroad. Years ago, there was plenty of interest in Australia as a destination, whereas now, there is more attraction in a basing and setting up for retirement for example, in somewhere like Phuket. The commuting contract market is always interesting, yet to be harnessed, as is eventual basings and talking of the failings of Australian politics, perhaps there should be more incentives or push for foreign carriers to base crew in Australia.
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Old 12th Dec 2016, 08:50
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Gnad,

My observations are commentary of a political malaise that infects Australia. I remove my own bias (generational) and am worried for the future of the country. I equally fear for Gen Y, millenials, and the aged. I do not worry for the war boom generation. They represent a large voter block, it follows political decisions will favour those voter blocks! We can debate the welfare spend another day, the demographics, revenue effects and tax base distortions another time! I do however think that expectations people have will be met when expectations meet fiscal reality. Hyman Minsky might well be quoted when it happens!

We are in furious agreement however over the pilot shortage. Australia is very expensive in all metrics. With stagnant real wages and declining living standards, the politicians may well laud increasing GDP, but they neglect to mention the per capita bit.( That bit is falling.)

As such, I think, given as others alluded to part 61, expensive training and low remuneration drove people away from the industry. Supply was further choked. Those remaining, qualified, experienced and denied a career, may yet find that strategically clever airlines, find their supply in Australia. I would be interested to see the Qantas, Virgin et al response were a substantial carrier set up a base here, or facilitate 'game changing' commuting contract. My hunch and hope is that we find out.
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Old 12th Dec 2016, 19:46
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Get Keating back in power. A guy with balls and far from clueless.
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 01:04
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Originally Posted by rodney rude
Get Keating back in power. A guy with balls and far from clueless.
Yeah.

Bring back the "recession we had to have", rampant inflation and 18% interest rates. That'll work.

Why not resurrect Gough while your at it if you really want to screw the country for an ideology?
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 04:35
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Let's have another pointless stimulus that achieved nothing other than lifting the sales of big TV's
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Old 13th Dec 2016, 19:20
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Gerry Harvey wasn't complaining
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 00:59
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Neither was the low cost carriers and Balinese
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Old 14th Dec 2016, 19:32
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The shortage of experienced pilots suitable for check and training/chief pilot roles in GA is becoming a major headache for some operators, particularly for the operators using turbines and with CAR 217 approvals.

Similar problems at the regional airline level as well from what I hear.
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Old 15th Dec 2016, 07:20
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Use the Emirates principle:

Pay the money, and they will come
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Old 15th Dec 2016, 08:10
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Keep the missionaries and misfits away and let us mercenaries dictate.

Pay peanuts, get monkeys.
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