Qantaslink PH base closes. AD opens
Soup Nazi...
If you are under 45 you would have no adult experience of a recession, nor have a grasp on exactly how devastating is deflation in a primary sector like resources. China is in an announced period of credit tightening, which is depressing commodity prices below the cost of production. There are NO projects starting, and NO projects finishing after 2016
China raced years ahead of its own internal demand curve recently to build entire cities which are unoccupied. It has pretty much reinforced all the paving its going to do for years, and laid all the rails, too. All of that infrastructure is in inventory and will be for decades. The party appears to be over.
The economists respect reversion to the mean, as does nature. Before 1990 recessions used to occur every seven years or so. We owe the universe at least three downturns, so expect this one to be profound. While the resource sector is contracting, automotive and support manufacturing is likewise being hollowed out.
I wouldn't be talking like better days are around the corner. Absent more free money from the central banks we are screwed. With too much free money from the central banks we are really, really screwed. We are in an economic coffin corner, where either the thrust or the speedbrakes will end in tears.
Best,
BummerMan
If you are under 45 you would have no adult experience of a recession, nor have a grasp on exactly how devastating is deflation in a primary sector like resources. China is in an announced period of credit tightening, which is depressing commodity prices below the cost of production. There are NO projects starting, and NO projects finishing after 2016
China raced years ahead of its own internal demand curve recently to build entire cities which are unoccupied. It has pretty much reinforced all the paving its going to do for years, and laid all the rails, too. All of that infrastructure is in inventory and will be for decades. The party appears to be over.
The economists respect reversion to the mean, as does nature. Before 1990 recessions used to occur every seven years or so. We owe the universe at least three downturns, so expect this one to be profound. While the resource sector is contracting, automotive and support manufacturing is likewise being hollowed out.
I wouldn't be talking like better days are around the corner. Absent more free money from the central banks we are screwed. With too much free money from the central banks we are really, really screwed. We are in an economic coffin corner, where either the thrust or the speedbrakes will end in tears.
Best,
BummerMan
"There are NO projects starting, and NO projects finishing after 2016"
Maybe not in South Australia, Carmichael/Alpha appear to be gearing up for exports to India by 2016.
Expression of Interest- Carmichael Coal Mine Jobs
"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to switch careers or look for a fresh start in mining in Queensland."
"When fully developed, the Carmichael Coal Mine will be the largest coal mine in Queensland"
Maybe not in South Australia, Carmichael/Alpha appear to be gearing up for exports to India by 2016.
Expression of Interest- Carmichael Coal Mine Jobs
"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to switch careers or look for a fresh start in mining in Queensland."
"When fully developed, the Carmichael Coal Mine will be the largest coal mine in Queensland"
Sorry...I meant big construction projects, which always employ many more people short-term than are required once the property is producing.
On the larger implications of coal: While there are obvious difficulties, I reckon that coal will be both a political hot potato and a solid earner for years yet. For as long as the current government stays in power. Since that looks like thin ice, I would be open, if i were you, to seeing coal being hamstrung in the medium term.
I think that we are at a watershed moment in the whole carbon discussion. If, as I expect, climate reveals itself as "big weather" over the next five years, the lie that is "clean coal" may become unpalatable. Still, five years is a long time. More so if you factor in political inertia.
So that's coal, and the sub-continent. What say you about ore? And China?
On the larger implications of coal: While there are obvious difficulties, I reckon that coal will be both a political hot potato and a solid earner for years yet. For as long as the current government stays in power. Since that looks like thin ice, I would be open, if i were you, to seeing coal being hamstrung in the medium term.
I think that we are at a watershed moment in the whole carbon discussion. If, as I expect, climate reveals itself as "big weather" over the next five years, the lie that is "clean coal" may become unpalatable. Still, five years is a long time. More so if you factor in political inertia.
So that's coal, and the sub-continent. What say you about ore? And China?
Last edited by Australopithecus; 25th Nov 2014 at 23:23. Reason: Sub-continent with an "o" instead if a "u"
Coal is done in my opinion. Yes it will still be a major energy source for the likes of India and China for the foreseeable future but it's definitely reached it's peak. I've pulled all of my super related shares out of the industry.
The coming few years will see the start of the next industrial revolution - the move to renewables on a large scale. Battery technology is only getting better and soon enough we'll all have storage cabinets (some say by 2020) in our garages where we'll store all of our own energy needs by day for use at night.
We'll be driving Tesla style cars around for 486km off a single charge (which we got for free from our roofs and storage systems).
Any company or Government planning for a future based on a healthy coal industry is run by a f**king idiot IMO.
But I digress. I feel for the Perth guys in this situation. I'm a bit perplexed as to why they made the AD base a sunnies one. Moving 21 crew from PH to AD seemed like the logical decision.
The coming few years will see the start of the next industrial revolution - the move to renewables on a large scale. Battery technology is only getting better and soon enough we'll all have storage cabinets (some say by 2020) in our garages where we'll store all of our own energy needs by day for use at night.
We'll be driving Tesla style cars around for 486km off a single charge (which we got for free from our roofs and storage systems).
Any company or Government planning for a future based on a healthy coal industry is run by a f**king idiot IMO.
But I digress. I feel for the Perth guys in this situation. I'm a bit perplexed as to why they made the AD base a sunnies one. Moving 21 crew from PH to AD seemed like the logical decision.
Yes it would have been the logical move, but at whose expense? Doing it this way does Qantas escape paying for it?
Like any crime novel, follow the money.
Like any crime novel, follow the money.
Fuel Off
I'll tell you why I think they made the announcement now….EBA negotiations have begun. No coincidence. As Going Nowhere said this does not bode well for EBA negotiations.
Personally I think the announcement could have definitely been expressed a whole lot better…most people I have spoken with didn't even know there was a review undergoing.
As for the Adelaide base….history has not been kind with outport bases and am skeptical of managements outlook especially considering they are not adding more 400 frames rather downgrading to 300's. I know for a fact that there are a number of 300 guys/gals from Cairns that were originally from Adelaide and wanting to return. Good luck for all concerned….it is a tough time for our colleagues!
I'll tell you why I think they made the announcement now….EBA negotiations have begun. No coincidence. As Going Nowhere said this does not bode well for EBA negotiations.
Personally I think the announcement could have definitely been expressed a whole lot better…most people I have spoken with didn't even know there was a review undergoing.
As for the Adelaide base….history has not been kind with outport bases and am skeptical of managements outlook especially considering they are not adding more 400 frames rather downgrading to 300's. I know for a fact that there are a number of 300 guys/gals from Cairns that were originally from Adelaide and wanting to return. Good luck for all concerned….it is a tough time for our colleagues!
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There's more to this one than meets the eye.
Don't think RPT, but perhaps Closed Charter. Have a read of Monday's(?) press release re Ceduna Airport and then join the dots.
Outside of Port Lincoln, there is no market to support 2 X 50 seat turbos. I say again, this is not for RPT.
As KABOY said on a different thread, there is history with this mob. I was directly effected in the demise of the previous Regional Jet operator. It didn't pan out well for anybody. Been there, done that and have the T shirt.
Get out. There's a big wide world out there people.
Best wishes to all!
Don't think RPT, but perhaps Closed Charter. Have a read of Monday's(?) press release re Ceduna Airport and then join the dots.
Outside of Port Lincoln, there is no market to support 2 X 50 seat turbos. I say again, this is not for RPT.
As KABOY said on a different thread, there is history with this mob. I was directly effected in the demise of the previous Regional Jet operator. It didn't pan out well for anybody. Been there, done that and have the T shirt.
Get out. There's a big wide world out there people.
Best wishes to all!
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CONFIRMED
EBA will be to the letter, FACT!
1) PER crew will see their seniority reset with SAA. What could be worse
2) Fleet Freeze will still stand as is written in EBA (this leaves only ADL for all the classic drivers
3) Bids that see upgrades given will be penalized to save the company money (to pay out the next HR and management bonuses as well as all the cash they are presently p*ssing up the wall.
4) Crunch the numbers of the vacancy bids, They can't expect to fill 15% excess capacity to LWOP and attrition. I foresee redundancies.
What a Christmas Present!
Unhumbly
1) PER crew will see their seniority reset with SAA. What could be worse
2) Fleet Freeze will still stand as is written in EBA (this leaves only ADL for all the classic drivers
3) Bids that see upgrades given will be penalized to save the company money (to pay out the next HR and management bonuses as well as all the cash they are presently p*ssing up the wall.
4) Crunch the numbers of the vacancy bids, They can't expect to fill 15% excess capacity to LWOP and attrition. I foresee redundancies.
What a Christmas Present!
Unhumbly
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The breakdown is also;
EASTERN PILOTS
Lose 3 Q400
Gain 1 Q200
SUNSTATE PILOTS
Lose 1 Q200
Lose 2 Q300 ( already announced)
Lose 2 Q300
Gain 3 Q400
Looks to me like the Eastern Pilot Group got the raw end of the deal
EASTERN PILOTS
Lose 3 Q400
Gain 1 Q200
SUNSTATE PILOTS
Lose 1 Q200
Lose 2 Q300 ( already announced)
Lose 2 Q300
Gain 3 Q400
Looks to me like the Eastern Pilot Group got the raw end of the deal
No fleet freeze at the moment. This is quite clearly stated to allow anyone to bid anywhere.
Looking at the seniority, junior CNS and BNE Capt's look to be hardest hit.
Redundancies look certain but not in the next 12-18 months.
Look at what happened to the 747/767 crew in Mainline. Draw down all the excess leave and then offer VR at the end of it. Fortunately we are looking at only a handful of redundancies potentially.
Already there are a few ppl putting their hand up for LWOP.
Looking at the seniority, junior CNS and BNE Capt's look to be hardest hit.
Redundancies look certain but not in the next 12-18 months.
Look at what happened to the 747/767 crew in Mainline. Draw down all the excess leave and then offer VR at the end of it. Fortunately we are looking at only a handful of redundancies potentially.
Already there are a few ppl putting their hand up for LWOP.
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Its not all negative people. After all the company is offering LWOP! Anyone interested in a working holiday?, what about taking a jet gig somewhere safe in the knowledge you have a position back here in OZ waiting for you. There are a lot of crew OS would have loved that chance. Ideal for the those who are board and would like to try something without the risk cause not much will happen around here for quite a while.
SN
SN
Last edited by PPRuNeUser0161; 26th Nov 2014 at 23:16. Reason: I should use spell checker!
Yes, it is. I wasn't being sarcastic when I wrote that i envied your ability to see a silver lining where I only see dark clouds.
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Thousands and thousands of Auto workers laid off in 2015/16. Australian economy grinding to a halt over the same time frame. Our industry rooted for at least a couple of years. Mining boom over, probably for a decade?
I just don't understand?
Abbott said on Election night with his usual $hit eating grin, "Australia is open for business".
I just don't understand?
At least rich Mummy's can stay home sticking a titty in a bubs mouth for 100K a year while our Defence Forces are sent to yet another war on a similar arse rogering EBA deal as us.
Gees, it's enough to puff ya chest out and be proud to be an Aussie eh?
God, no wonder half my flying buddies left this rip off country a decade ago and laugh when I have a whinge to them!
I just don't understand?
Abbott said on Election night with his usual $hit eating grin, "Australia is open for business".
I just don't understand?
At least rich Mummy's can stay home sticking a titty in a bubs mouth for 100K a year while our Defence Forces are sent to yet another war on a similar arse rogering EBA deal as us.
Gees, it's enough to puff ya chest out and be proud to be an Aussie eh?
God, no wonder half my flying buddies left this rip off country a decade ago and laugh when I have a whinge to them!
