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LHR mixed mode trial

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LHR mixed mode trial

Old 3rd Mar 2012, 10:24
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The monthly report for January has yet to appear (and is thus rather delayed compared with those for November and December which appeared around the 22nd of the following month). Perhaps some additional screening work is going on before publication.

Going on to the second phase of the trials (if the Minister is minded to pursue them), the CAA have recommended better and earlier discussion with the local authorities and other stakeholders :

Recommendations:
(a) We note that the timing of the first phase of the trial allowed only limited opportunity for prior engagement with local communities. We recommend that BAA considers how best to engage with communities about the trial ahead of the commencement of the second phase, including seeking agreement with the DfT and CAA on what successful engagement looks like.

(b) We recommend that local authority technical experts should have more, and earlier, opportunity to be engaged in the data verification and analysis.

(c) The publication of existing runway operating procedures in mid-December helped to answer a number of the questions raised about the distinction between pre-existing procedures and the operational freedoms in the trial. We recommend that the differences between existing flexibility and the freedoms being tested by the trial are clearly explained at an earlier stage for the second phase of the trial.


http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/201202...A%20Report.pdf

ACL have also written to airlines regarding the reduced declared capacity for the Olympic period
Specifically for the period 14th July to 14th September inclusive, Heathrow is declaring a revised scheduling limit for both runway arrivals and departures, and for terminal load factors.
They also request that night time operations be avoided
The purpose of the trial is to provide an evidential base for future operating permissions whose outcome will be the reduction in delay, improvement in punctuality and increased resilience of the ATM operation. In turn, the flexible use of the runways is anticipated to deliver less airborne and runway holding as well as a significant reduction in the number of late running departures. With regard to this last point, ACL is requested to use all means available to avoid night time operations and where such flights take place to provide a detailed account of the rationale to the Slot Performance Committee.

LHR Summer 2012 Capacity Declaration Letter
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 07:41
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Going on to the second phase of the trials (if the Minister is minded to pursue them)
Interesting - I wasn't aware of that caveat, although I guess the Minister can change her mind whenever she wants.

Phase II of the trial will be crucial, not least because of the extra ATC challenges that the summer/Olympics peak will bring, and the lessons learned from Phase I.

I would expect that a number of things will change in the 4 months leading up to the next phase: stakeholder engagement, data capture and analysis, reporting, etc, and possibly even the ground rules re when freedoms can be deployed.
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 10:34
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What are the major challenges of ATC for the summer/Olympic peak ?

If LHR scheduled capacity has been reduced, all airports have been coordinated and new air routes introduced haven't most of the boxes been ticked ?

I can see issues with turning planes round with large quantities of untypical baggage and high load factors, but how serious are the extra demands on ATC ?
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 12:58
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I can see issues with turning planes round with large quantities of untypical baggage and high load factors, but how serious are the extra demands on ATC ?
Fair enough, I stand corrected. It's reassuring to know that the summer/Olympics period will be simply business as usual for ATC.

I had mistakenly inferred from the CAA's comment in their interim report, about Heathrow being at full stretch over the Olympic period, that they were implying an abnormally high workload for ATC.
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 13:48
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I'm not quite sure about "business as usual" for the Olympics

Some people are already rather twitchy :


http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/201201...Dec%202011.pdf

and the NATS reply raises all kinds of questions about further extensions to the "trials"

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/DOC270212.pdf

Alleviate the ban on night time jets ?
Stop using first come- first served and divert those who abuse the slot system
Do proper mixed mode at Heathrow
Remove the 6/hour cap on TEAM...........
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Old 6th Mar 2012, 15:21
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and the NATS reply raises all kinds of questions about further extensions to the "trials"
And here's the CAA letter referred to in the reply from NATS:

http://www.caa.co.uk/docs/589/201201...%20meeting.pdf

Interesting reference (2nd para) to:

"Plans are already being formulated to stand up the NACME [National Airspace Crisis Management Executive] for some of the peak capacity days as a precaution."
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Old 8th Mar 2012, 09:47
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I see the January summary report has now been issued.

I am surprised that while stack holding and taxi-in times have been fairly consistent in the three months that have been reported on, and average taxi-out time has been steady-ish, the average times for departure hold have been all over the place.

November average 10.26 mins
December 2.98 mins
January 7.53 mins

It doesn't appear to be related to easterlies/westerlies.

Anyone know any obvious causes ?
Is it a weather phenomenon ?
Or is there an ace who can get the movements running like clockwork in December but then goes on holiday ........?
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Old 8th Mar 2012, 11:58
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118.7 -

It's because of the quality of the L/Ops. Taxiway movement rates always go up when the R&Gs are on.

Well, that's what happened when I was on the Panel

<sits back and waits for chorus of agreement>
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Old 8th Mar 2012, 13:13
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Ha! Never laughed so much in ages.

In fact, a little wee came out!
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Old 8th Mar 2012, 15:48
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The BAA Annual Report includes:

In July 2011, the South East Airports Taskforce, sponsored by the Department for Transport, recommended that consideration be given to Heathrow having greater operational freedom to prevent or mitigate disruption. For example, this might involve simultaneous use of both runways for arrivals and departures in such circumstances, within the existing overall cap on aircraft movements. An initial trial of runway use in this manner concludes in February 2012 with another trial expected during summer 2012. If implemented permanently, such measures should improve areas such as punctuality and baggage misconnects as well as bringing environmental benefits such as reduced stacking.

It's the first time I've seen mention of "baggage misconnects" as being something that is potentially affected by the trial. And as it is directly related to the "passenger experience" I'm surprised they haven't included a metric for it in the protocol.
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Old 9th Mar 2012, 09:19
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It's the first time I've seen mention of "baggage misconnects" as being something that is potentially affected by the trial. And as it is directly related to the "passenger experience" I'm surprised they haven't included a metric for it in the protocol.
I'd guess there is a long list of outcomes that the SEATF could have listed as being dependent on punctuality, of which "baggage misconnects" is one ("passenger misconnects" too, come to that).

Presumably the 15 minute punctuality figures in the daily stats are intended as a proxy for all of those consequences too.

Interestingly, for the whole of the trial the punctuality stats, quoted as a percentage to 2 decimal places, have a zero as their second decimal (for example last Wednesday's were 89.70% for arrivals and 91.10% for departures). The odds of that happening for 121 consecutive days must be astronomical. Either that or someone needs to brush up on their maths: Significant figures - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 9th Mar 2012, 09:39
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I am surprised that while stack holding and taxi-in times have been fairly consistent in the three months that have been reported on, and average taxi-out time has been steady-ish, the average times for departure hold have been all over the place.

November average 10.26 mins
December 2.98 mins
January 7.53 mins

It doesn't appear to be related to easterlies/westerlies.
November is when IFACTS was introduced into the Area Control Ops Room and there was either a 10 or 20% reduction in traffic values for each sector, plus a lot of nervous supervisors who, had not received any of their training yet.

We did have a management meeting where they told us how much extra delay there was for the introduction of iFACTS, it was less than they expected, but still considerably more than the November average, hence the big figure.

Simples
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Old 15th Mar 2012, 18:17
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Local press interpret the CAA report :

Talking on trials must improve, aviation authority tells BAA (From Richmond and Twickenham Times)

Talking on trials must improve, aviation authority tells BAA


The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) has recommended BAA improves the way it communicates with communities next to Heathrow, to reduce hostility towards its runway trials.

The CAA said the air operator faced distrust from residents suspicious of its motives and suggested it could involve council experts in collecting and analysing data.

Heathrow ended its first four month test on February 29. It allowed the airport to use one runway simultaneously for arrivals and departures when planes face a 10 minute wait, or if more than 30 per cent of aircraft are running more than 30 minutes late.

Heathrow is due to start its second phase this summer.

Meanwhile, the Government has rejected an offer from Sir Richard Branson to invest £5bn expanding Virgin Atlantic operations if it dropped its opposition to Heathrow expansion.
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Old 15th Mar 2012, 18:55
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Anyone know the declared runway rates at Manchester for single runway mixed mode and two runway segregated ops?

SGC
 
Old 15th Mar 2012, 19:42
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Anyone know the declared runway rates at Manchester for single runway mixed mode and two runway segregated ops?
The ACL Library is a useful source for several airports and their declared capacities - runways and terminals. Page 4 for declared current runway capacities.

Airport Coordination Limited - Reports/Statistics

S 2011 limits for MAN are here - times in UTC.

http://80.168.119.219/UserFiles/File...f%20season.pdf

W2011 limits here

http://80.168.119.219/UserFiles/File...f%20Season.pdf

Think the 2 runways are only both open 06.30-10.30 and 16.00 to 20.00 LT weekdays now plus Sat 06.30. - 10.00 and Sun 16.00 - 20.00

Hope this helps

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Old 15th Mar 2012, 20:42
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Think the 2 runways are only both open 06.30-10.30 and 16.00 to 20.00 LT weekdays now plus Sat 06.30. - 10.00 and Sun 16.00 - 20.00
Only 2 runways available 8 hours out of 24 hours?

I can't believe that. Ever likely the aviation business in this country isn't performing to it's potential!

On the beach
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Old 15th Mar 2012, 20:51
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Regarding holding time stats. When is the aircraft deemed to have ceased holding? Is it upon receiving the clearance or when the heading has been taken up? For example it takes a long time to do the following "next time overhead make a 360 back to OCK, then leave hdg085" The sceptic in me thinks this is to keep the delay stats lower.
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Old 17th Mar 2012, 10:29
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Airline twitchiness reaches new levels :

Olympic air chaos for millions: BA and top airlines warning 'foolhardy and reckless' Government over risk of delays in apocalyptic letter | Mail Online

I wonder what NATS five options were ?
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Old 17th Mar 2012, 23:57
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I wonder what NATS five options were ?
They presumably include the options that BA proposed in its evidence this week to the Commons Transport Select Committee:

a) relaxation of the night flight restrictions

b) further relaxation of the restrictions on mixed mode (beyond the provisions of Operational Freedoms trial)

c) removal of the requirement of NATS' licence that all traffic must be treated equally on a first-come first-served basis
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Old 18th Mar 2012, 11:50
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Thanks for the link .

House of Commons - Transport Committee - Written Evidence

The NATS evidence includes :
8.3 The industry will need to be prepared, and the CAA will need to be flexible and responsive on a tactical basis throughout the Olympics period to the various types of disruption risk, particularly if more than one of these risks was to be coincident.

8.4 NATS has facilitated two cross industry workshops with airports, airlines, business jet operators, ACL, CAA, DfT and MoD to highlight risks and discuss an industry response. At these
workshops, airports and airlines suggested mitigations that could be provided by the Government on a temporary basis which would significantly improve resilience or recovery from disruption, such as:

Additional measures to ensure effective management and policing of additional airport slots

Increased availability of military airspace

Limited easing of the night jet ban restrictions

Early vectoring off departure routes to enable increased runway capacity during recovery from disruption

Prioritisation of certain aircraft types or flights over others.

8.5 The CAA has acknowledged the risks that various stakeholders raised, primarily around lack of resilience of
London’s airspace today and the forecast additional Olympics traffic, combined with heightened security considerations, which meant there was a real and significant risk of widespread disruption. The CAA confirmed in February 2012, that it will progress, with industry, the risks identified which NATS does not have the authority to progress, including some of the items listed in 8.4 above.

8.6 The CAA and NATS have held discussions recently to establish the extent to which the restrictions on NATS imposed by its Licence and the Transport Act, might limit NATS’ ability to exercise the full range of operational decisions that its customers might desire, across a range of situations in which the resilience of the network was adversely affected.

8.7 The overriding principle established by the Licence is that any operational decisions must not unduly favour
any particular aircraft or class of aircraft user. However, some reasonable latitude is allowed to deviate from that principle, taking into account a need to operate the route network as a whole, as efficiently as practicable.

8.8 The result from those recent meetings is that NATS is preparing a range of possible operational responses to

potential scenarios designed to respond to customer needs, balanced with network efficiency. These will be discussed further with the CAA such that the CAA will be able to give clear guidance as to the limits of latitude NATS will be able to exercise.

So if those five measures mentioned in the letter are the ones in 8.4, it adds military airspace and vectoring off NPRs to your three.
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