Is this a good time to get into flying?

[Leviatan]

I've wanted to fly jets all my life, but recently I've been thinking that dream might be out of reach. I'm going to be finishing high school soon and will begin training for my PPL.

Now, as everyone knows, the industry is in terrible shape right now. It's probably one of the worst times to be trying to get into it, but that's not really stopping me. I'd never be happy doing anything else because this is what I really enjoy.

My question is this: Do you think it will pick up again in a few years time, or is it just going to get worse and worse? Every day there's more bad news. Another airline sacking people, or even going bankrupt. That's depressing for even me to hear, I can't imagine how it would be hearing things like that when you've already spent the time and money to try and work in that field.

It will be difficult for me to afford all the flying lessons I need, but I'm sure if I really try I won't have too much trouble. It would be terrible to go through all that then find out I'm not going to get a job though :(

[daredevil]

The long term trend for the Aviation Industry as a whole is upward growth with a few bumps in the road along the way, (as with any market sector that is growing) Which means more jobs for pilots, engineers, maintenance technitions etc etc, in the long run. The long-term growth predicted by analysts is due to several factors but the predominant one is simply that more Pilots are retiring than are being trained. Most of the Senior Captains out there got there wings in Vietnam, Korea, and I'm sure there are some WWII vets still in the skies. If I were you I woulndn't be too worried, the current state of the aviation industry is such a bump in the road, things will get better if you're thinking of making a long term career out of it. The airline industry has suffered before and the current cold it has will pass once a few economic factors run their course.:ok:

[ecj]

Historically you use to talk about a seven year cycle. I think 9/11 put pay to that, at least in the short term.

It all comes under the heading of supply and demand .

You are quite right, it is a risk paying for the training, with no certainty of employment at the end. Normally, but not always, the better students will be successful. It also helps to know somebody who can put a good word in for you at the right time.

Some might say that self funding is the acid test of commitment on your part - to take that risk. As always, a personnel choice.

The other options are airline sponsorship, or the military.

[daredevil]

Good Point about the military ecj, in some circles it's argued that the current 'state of war' Bush, Blair and Howard are in is an indirect long term stimulus to the airline industry as traditionally airlines looked to the military first when recruiting pilots(higher standards, less tolerance for error equals better pilots). When the dust settles and not so much tourists but business travellers begin flying again, the demand for pilots will increase and pilots that have seen some action while in the military will be looked upon more favourably by the airlines.

[Notso Fantastic]

Whether that's right or wrong, the last time i can remember when getting into flying was 'good' was in the 60s! Ever since then the industry has lurched from crisis to crisis and coming into the industry has always been 'bad'. Look at it like this- you have youth. All us old foggies will have dropped out into retirement- somebody has to replace us (not that it will be easy to look as 'cool' as us old Dudes). Look at the way aviation is growing. If it's in your blood, and you have the fitness level, and you are literate enough, who else is there to do it?

[daredevil]

though I guess I would be considered a bean counter and not a pilot, my sentiments with notsofantastic exactly - if you have the right stuff, just do it

[Leviatan]

I guess you're right. Obviously I haven't been around long enough to see the ups and downs of it all, but to me it seems that since around the early 80s (after the deregulation act) everything was getting better until the crisis that September 11 brought about. There's always times where business is low in every industry, but there hasn't been anything like this in the aviation industry recently, has there?

I'm sure that everyone will agree that pilots aren't a dying breed and there will still be lots of air travel in the future, but how long will it be before things pick up? You can only speculate, but it's still good to see how people view the future and get an idea, rather than getting a nasty surprise :ok:

[daredevil]

if memory serves me correctly the last time, before 9/11 that a plane crashed into a building was in the 50's and coincidentily in New York City. It was an american military aircraft and it accidently crashed into the Empire State Bldg.

Maybe someone who knows more about that can give you the exact date :)

[Golf Charlie Charlie]

Daredevil

It was a B-25 and it occurred on 28 July 1945. While no 9/11 (and it was an accident due to fog), it was no small event. An engine went right through the building and landed on the street the other side killing passers-by. In all 'only' 14 were killed, but it was a Saturday.

http://history1900s.about.com/library/misc/blempirecrash.htm

[Touch'n'oops]

This topic is debated so often! I believe the aviation industry is the most volatile in terms of how other factors effect it.

Most airlines run on a cash flow basis. So that means that there is a lot of cash going through the airline and very little being held in reserve for a rainy day! Airlines then structure the company so it is quick and easy to adapt to forever the changing economies.

So you cannot look at an airline and say right it will follow this cycle of rotation. With markets crashing, virus, war...etc, it is impossible to say where the future of flying will go. But I have got my money on up!!!

Leviatan: I see that you're an ozzy, so from where I sit, I can't give any useful advise to your problem. All I can say is I think things will be looking up for the near future...

I have taken the chance and I am training in Spain for my ATPL. I see a lot of fresh airline guys/gals coming to do Jet Orientation Courses!

Heads up and good Luck!!!!:ok:

[scroggs]

daredevil, I think you have a rather optimistic view of the potential career length of ex-military pilots. WW2 finished 58 years ago. Even Vietnam ended over 30 years ago. There will be a very few ex-Vietnam pilots still employed in the airlines, but I doubt you'll find any ex-Korea and definitely no ex-WW2 pilots flying commercially!

As for the industry, it is and has always been cyclic around a long term trend of growth. Asia, the Pacific and Africa still have huge potential for growth, but evidence is beginning to suggest that political and environmental issues will limit the potential growth in Europe and North America.

Leviatan, before you commit yourself and a great deal of money to obtaining a commercial licence, make sure that you like flying as much as you think you're going to - take a couple of trial lessons. Get your Class One medical. And never forget that it's very, very easy to find yourself jobless in this game. So go in with your eyes open and your expectations realistic.

Scroggs

[Touch'n'oops]

Leviatan: From the large amount of reading I have done on PPRUNE I think that some of the most sound advice given, has been written by SCROGGS...

So this is a bit of a warning just to say that there are a lot of opinions flying around. Opinions are NOT FACT!

Starting an ATPL course is a big step and a lot of money! The best advice from me, is do your own research and after a bit of time you will have a better feel for the industry. From there you can make educated guesses.

Good Luck:ok: It's your future, so stay on top of it!!!

[Leviatan]

Thanks for the advice everyone. I've already gone for a couple of flying lessons, mainly because I couldn't stand looking at planes flying and knowing that it's not me up there :ok:

I'll still have a while to go until I have to make a decision though. I'm self-funding my training, so it will be at least 2 or 3 years before I'd be able to get my CPL. I'll be getting my PPL by the end of this year, so basically I'll have 3 years to check everything out and see if it's a smart move to make career-wise.

The instructor told me that the past decade it's been easier to get a job in aviation than it has been for the past 30 years, but I don't think that's true... It was probably something they just say to try and get you to hand over money for lessons, right?