Best/worst case scenerio

[Muggs]

Best/worst case scenario

What are peoples views on the next 6 months to a year.

Wannabe optimism - has it grown since 09/01? And is the immediate future (next 6-12months) brighter than present, if not when will the industry turn the corner?

Nice to know whether my fellow wannabes are:
Optimistic
Or
Pessimistic

[Blinkz]

It will improve, however i got no idea when. also i don't know if it will get worse before better.:confused:

[Dufwer]

I'm in the optimistic camp. This, however, is my unscientific outlook. With the amount of money I have already invested and the huge sums still to be handed over, I would be foolish to think otherwise. I'm following a dream, looking too closely at the facts would only clouds things. :ooh: No offense meant to anyone recently employed in their first airline job but at present it appears a fair amount of luck is required to be in the right place at the right time. I have had a fair amount of luck to get to where I am today and hope to continue riding it for a while longer ;) Talk about being naive!

Regards
D

[FlyingForFun]

:D @ Dufwer, but I know exactly what you mean!

My own thoughts are similar, except that I also know that even if the market doesn't pick up, I'll get a job because I'm by far the best pilot on the planet, not to mention my superb social and interview skills, and my ability to charm any female recruiters. If all the recruiters are male, though, I'm screwed :eek:

Ok, seriously - do not enter training right now unless you have a plan for what to do if you don't get a job. I have a plan, I hope not to need it, but realistically I expect that I will need it for a short while at the very least, possibly for longer.

FFF
----------------

[ecj]

The share prices might give an indication as to if / when recruiting will start again. If Emirates start a steady expansion, then the "upward flow" will begin, and make room for first time FOs on the smaller ac.

Also, when BA start to recruit again - DEPs. Sometime in 2004 perhaps?

Over the last 30 years, a 7 year cycle was evident. The first Gulf War and 9/11 has put a wobble on the whole process.

For those of you with the fATPL/MCC etc, do try and keep current at your local flying club, and if finances permit maintain a valid IR.
FNPT 2 sims will also keep you up to speed.

Hang on in there.

[foghorn]

My two penneth...

Unless there is another major terrorist outrage involving aviation, the airline industry will improve. SARS and the Iraq War are now out of the way, 11/09/01 is now a fading memory, and enough of the economies that produce travellers are expanding gently. Rumours say that many airlines have had a tight crewing situation for some while, but have been holidng off recruitment because of the uncertain international outlook. This will have to change sooner or later.

However I predict more contraction in the training industry, in particular in PPL training. With the IT and financial services industries still in the doldrums there is just not enough of the right sort of people with enough disposable income for training. Bad news for FIs or people considering gaining hours via that route.

cheers!
foggy.