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View Full Version : A tangible reason for hope of a rapid recovery


Wee Weasley Welshman
1st Nov 2001, 23:25
I urge Wannabes to read the following Anatole Kaletsky article in The Times today.

The biggest threat from *this point* on to Wannabe prospects is that of general recession. Anatole gives us some cause for hope. I have read him for years and trust his view. He also won financial journalist of the year award this year...
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0,,248-2001380392,00.html

WWW

Luke SkyToddler
2nd Nov 2001, 00:36
Well that ought to p!ss the guv off ... :D

topunicyclist
2nd Nov 2001, 01:15
potentially quite encouraging.....I only hope it's all true and going to happen.....

OK far be it for me to be pessimistic, but with the Gulf War in the early 90s, the 'trigger' for recession was very much "over there" and there was very little perceived threat to the western world. This time, the 'trigger' for recession was very much "over here" and there is now a much greater perceived threat to the west in general. Note my use of the terms trigger, over here and over there are used in a very general sense. Surely the greater perceived
threat to the western world is having a substantially greater impact on consumer confidence and therefore spending particularly in sectors such as air travel.

Any criticisms/discussions welcome........(I am not an economist by the way!)......

[ 01 November 2001: Message edited by: topunicyclist ]

JB007
2nd Nov 2001, 12:52
The whole thing I find frightning is Bush potentially in charge of World War 3!!..I mean, come on, the American's couldn't even find the A-Team and they drove around in a big black van !!!!

But seriously, a very good article, at last, someone looking forward and with positive thought. It's very easy, particulary if the closest you get to this industry is PPRuNe, to think it's all doom & gloom. But there are people who are still spending a lot of money on aviation.

A friend of mine gets a spanking new Falcon 900 to play with in October 02 as his boss wanted something with "longer legs"...and he's giving his 1 year old Hawker 800SP to the kids to play with...

The mole
2nd Nov 2001, 14:59
So where are the signs of the recession? - House prices falling; stock market falling; unemployment rising; industrial output declining... Some sectors of the economy are still heading for a downturn and haven't got there yet(construction industry for example), and I think things will get a lot worse before they get better. With uncertainty in the Middle East people ain't gonna be investing in high-outlay long term capital projects = No money sloshing around the economy. Furthermore, where do we go from here? The stock market, the generel index of wealth, is historically still relatively high, and with flat or decreasing sales and profits in many of our major companies, it ain't gonna be rocketing skywards in the near future.

MJR
2nd Nov 2001, 15:10
Some elements of the aviation industry I'm sure are exacerbating the situation by using the 11/9/01 as excuse for poor management and econonic strategy. You only have to read back through Flight International in the weeks prior to 11/9/01 and see the Global aviation industry was on a bit of a slide. I'm sure Swiss Air's 8 billion debt did not accumulate in the last few weeks. The major headlines that these companies promote through there doom mongering can only lower the morale of the industry itself and displace public confidence further still.

Its the likes of BA Baracus who need the encouragement to fly again.

Steam valve closed

cheers

MJR

foghorn
2nd Nov 2001, 15:12
As I've said before, all the signs for the UK point towards a soft landing, which is exactly what the economy needed to save it overheating and going into a boom-bust phase.

Things will pick up quickly.

I'm much more worried about the psychological effect of 11-Sep on the travelling public than a general recession in the UK.

cheers!
foggy.

tailscrape
2nd Nov 2001, 16:13
Billy Fish 2,

You are quite wrong I am afraid. The amrket in the UK is still at a pretty reasonable level. Stocks may have come off their overinflated dot com boom highs, but they are still (generally) as high now as they were before that mad cycle started.

You cannot look at the tech stocks alone for a stand alone index. If you do, you see the sad state of the Techmark index and its poor performance. Too narrow a band of stocks to have an index for. Wild swings in up and down moves will always be prevalent in such an index.

The FTSE 100 is still around the area it was in pre Sept11 as well.

So, in all, why don't we just stick to this forum being about aircraft and wannabes, not finance and market making?

Yours...

a former city trader of five years standing. Now a future employee for Burger King!!

JB007
2nd Nov 2001, 16:26
The article should make good grounding for your speech next Saturday WWW !!

Just been given a ticket by a friend who can't make it and to quote him "A chap from that website you look at is doing a talk...". Just checked out the Flyer website and good lord...your name is in lights!!

Wee Weasley Welshman
2nd Nov 2001, 23:28
I didn't realise - JB - that I was on the billing personally !!! :eek:

The real downer is that I can't actually attend due to a short notice requirement to mobe house next weekend. Which is a shame.

WWW

QUERY
3rd Nov 2001, 05:03
BF2- Always looking for attractive homes for my money, so who do you work for?

PaulDeGearup
3rd Nov 2001, 20:43
11/9 was utilised by airline managers to make certain adjustments which had either been planned or researched and they suddenly had an Allah given excuse to implement them in short order. We all know that. The middle managers, who had planned the cuts, then found themselves subject to an axing too.

Well, come January when Mr & Mrs Bloggs pop down to the now closed branch of Thomas Cook to book their 2 week summer hols, the charter market will go into a spin; you cant add capacity overnight.We all know that.You can ACMI a bit, but with the level of layoffs industry wide it will be more difficult and more expensive.

If airline managers, and pilots/cabin crew for that matter, had any sense, rather than lay people off (by all means store aircraft) they would have put them on unpaid leave/job sharing/reduced hours/salary reduction - whatever means they could come up with to keep people in work and their skills current. That way when things improve, which they will, the labour pool is still there ready for an immediate upturn !

As it turns out there are going to be several hundred extremely cheesed off people;just read the bmi redundancies thread to realise that even if they are asked to come back they will be very disillusioned and probably extremely reluctant to to do anymore than the contract demands, assuming of course that bmi dont go down the pan first. That's just a gratuitous bit of scandal mongering ;)

So things will get better, but in the longer, rather than shorter term. The problem which has to be addressed though is that the bottom end, inexperienced and perhaps looking for that first job, may well become disenchanted and go elsewhere and the top end may take early retirement. Whatever, there will suddenly be a shortage of crews and panic will set in again! The winners in this will be easyjet and to lesser extent Go; Ryan have pissed people off with their new recruitment policy, but its MOL's bat and ball so how he plays it is up to him.

Anyone who pays Ryan for a rating is not helping matters; if every last one of us boycotted Ryanair we might see a result. Regrettably, I dont see that happening. :(

Essentially it looks a tho it will be every man and woman for themselves; is that so new?

The mole
8th Nov 2001, 15:11
Billyfish2,

Tailscrape has saved me the bother of replying re my crock of **** . Remenber all markets re supply and demand are cyclic, including aviation, and if this downturn stops wannabees commencing expensive training courses in the near future then those of us with ATPLs and without jobs will find ourselves in a better position in the near future.

InFinRetirement
8th Nov 2001, 17:38
NEVER EVER bite the hand (aviation) that feeds you. It is a very small world when it comes down to it.

Ride the swell until you can start your 'motor' again.

InFinRetirement
8th Nov 2001, 18:11
Not necessarily BF2.

On this and other threads, there is a hint of natural angst with what people see as the airlines 'taking stock' to disadvantage their staff. That may or may not be true.

However, there is also a hint that some will try to play hard to get when they are asked back. What I am saying is that if you whack the dog now you will get bitten later.
Better to get back and start over.

It's gonna be less time than you think IMHO, but it's going to be a long time before it's back to the norm of pre 9/11, so it is better to have a contract you don't like than not to have one at all!

InFinRetirement
8th Nov 2001, 21:22
It's OK. It wasn't directed at you at all really BF2. Just responding to a trend that is befalling so many who sadly, but understandably, feel bitter.

From my smug position of retirement, and having run my own operations, I see things somewhat more objectively perhaps. It will all come right! That's a certainty!