Am I risking missing the boat?

[Wireless]

I was really hoping that those of you whom are in the know could help me out with this:

Basically, I am currently saving up for my CPL/IR. I already have my PPL and 300 hours so i'm gonna go modular. I am currently driving trucks for a crust and have worked out that I will not be in a financial position to start my training until two to three years time.

Will I be leaving it too late do you think. I have been warned that when recruiting picks up again I may "miss the boat" so to speak. What do you think? I'm 22 now so I would be 24/25 by the time I start, is that pushing things. Just to put you in the frame, I am adamant that I do not want to fly for the airlines so I am aiming my enthusiasm towards flying smaller aircraft for a living (e.g Kingairs in Africa). I probably will not make a good airline Pilot anyway as I enjoy hands on type stuff.

Any advice? Many thanks folks, all helpful advice would be absolutely marvellous :)

[ 16 January 2002: Message edited by: PoleStar ]</p>

[Biz]

Polestar, are you psychic?! I only ask because I was just logging on to post a very similar question <img src="eek.gif" border="0">
Anyway, for all you in the know, I'm in a very similar situation to Polestar, except I'm 25 now and do potentially want an airline career.
Sorry if it seems I'm hijacking your thread here, but it would be interesting if any responses could give both sides of the coin please.

[thedove]

Looks there are a few of us with the same issue. I am planning going "integrated" and flying for the airlines. The disavtange is that I am 29 this year. The advantage is that I have saved enough to train and support myself for the year without taking any loans.

At 31 with a frozen ATPL will I struggle?

I am sure there is someone there that can answer these queries........

[scroggs]

Polestar,
do you seriously think that all airline recruiting will be over and done with in three years' time? That doesn't bode well for the continuing existence of any of our jobs! Come on, do think it through a little.
Any cursory study of the post-war (WWll) airline industry reaveals a roughly 10-year cycle. At the high points of the cycle (most recently 1998-2000) there are pilot shortages; the rest of the time there is a varying surplus of pilots over jobs. Although the overall industry continues to expand on average (and will again soon), so does the number of would-be pilots in training, so this cyclic behaviour isn't likely to change.
Right now, there are considerably more wannabes than jobs. But the low cost airlines are already bucking the trend, and most of the majors now believe that the worst of the current problems are over. This much can be gleaned from reading the newspapers. Therefore, it would be logical to assume that there will indeed be jobs available in the industry in two or three years' time, and that the industry will be enjoying a great time whilst bounding towards its next crisis in 2010-11!
As for being to old at 24-25, please! If you were 45 you might have some cause to worry.
I think you need to apply a little common sense to your questions - I hope you think through your exam questions more thoroughly! <img src="wink.gif" border="0">

[LAVDUMPER]

Scroggs,

How about your situation? I understand that, sadly, Virgin has been shedding some pilots recently. How is your situation on the Classic? Have you switched fleets? Will you need to look for a new position as well?

All the best,

Lav

[Wireless]

Scoggs

Thanks for replying. Gratefully received words of wisdom there, even if a little acerbic.

I have read reports of "cyclical" behaviour etc, but when you have friends who fly for a living and impart such warnings of doom, it can cloud your reasoning especially if you are risking a hell of a lot financially (I have no rich relatives).

You are right, I was wrong, I should have thought it through more carefully but I had 2 airline Pilot friends (?) impart their thoughts of doom on me today, and it made me a little paranoid, after all I have bo*"£cks all experience really of how these things pan out. It may seem obvious to you now but don't you remember what it was like when you couldn't see the aviation wood for the trees because of all the misleading info'? So perhaps a little understanding, pretty please? :) <img src="wink.gif" border="0">

Cheers for replying tho', as you would know if anybody. Pstar <img src="smile.gif" border="0">

[scroggs]

Pole,
a gentle dig often achieves more than an unquestioning response! Sorry if it came over a bit sarcastic. Remember always to assess your situation by looking at the overall perspective; use more than just Pprune and Airlines.net to judge the market.
I'm not saying that it's all going to be sweetness and light for wannabes in 2 to 3 years' time, but it will be a damn sight better than it is now. And bear in mind that our own Capt Pprune, now a B757 pilot, began his flying career well into his 30s.
Hope it goes well for you.
Lavdumper,
yes, I'm OK for now, unlike many of my mates.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

I would personally aim not to graduate into the hiring market for 3 years time. In which case your time scale looks grand.

WWW

[Quidditch Captain]

Call me a fool if you like, but I'm 42 and still going for it!
If you don't ask you don't get in this world.....

QC

[Biz]

Scroggs et WWW, thanks for responding. I was particularly interested in WWW's response. You see, I have been given contradictary advice over the past four months. Some have said to me that for a wannabe, it would be particularly advantageous to commence training now in order to graduate (hopefully) just about the right time when an anticipated upturn in recruitment takes place with the airlines/other operators. Others, like our good WWW, have said to delay graduating until we actually see the market improving. But surely to follow this advice would mean that we do "...miss the boat" so to speak? Is it not better to try to be in the right place, at the right time?

We all understand no one can predict the future, but what are the opinions of the PPprune Oracles' on this topic? <img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

By the way Scroggs, I may not seem over the hill at 25, but Bejesus do I feel it!!

[scroggs]

Biz,
WWW's and my advice may differ in emphasis, but essentially we are saying the same thing, and have been since 11/09. If you can delay your entry into training to achieve a graduation at the earliest in late 2003, we would recommend that you do so. We say that so that you don't end up spending too much money maintaining currency etc in what will still probably be a difficult market.
That's not to say that it will be impossible to get jobs before then, but you will for a while be in competition with experienced pilots laid off by Virgin, bmi, Gill, etc. Not ideal! WWW makes a big thing about the number of Wannabes backed up in the system due to the rapid closing of the door in September. He's right, but your date of graduation does not give you priority at interview. In other words, if experience is not a factor, all fATPL-qualified candidates will operate on a level playing field, so you are as likely to get the job as the guy who graduated last summer. Your task is to ensure that you are the most attractive prospect for your future employer - ie you get invited to interview first. That means not failing any exams or flight tests, researching the market, and equipping yourself with as much knowledge as possible. If you can aim that high, go for it now.
It will be very tough for a while but, as always, there will be some winners. For the vast majority, though, a delay would be prudent.

[firehorse]

I can see the industry turning around in a snap and a certain world weary (25yr old!!) rushing to a flight school to get the fastest ATPL known to man so that he can get into the workforce. Remember the saying "Procrastination is the thief of time" (I'm a prime example!!)Best of luck and to sum it all up
Fortes Fortuna Juvata!!