When will the industry be back to normal?

[edd2000uk]

Has anyone heard anything indicating how long it's likely to be before the airline industry is back to normal, or at least the intake of new trainee pilots? I finished uni last year and had applied to British Airways amongst others before Sept 11th. I'm unsure whether to take up another career (my degree is in computer science) or wait it out doing part time work.

[no sponsor]

I'm not sure what you are saying here. Do you want only to fly for BA, or do you just want to fly for a career? If you want BA, then forget it: one, they probably won't see much motivation in you in anycase, since if all you do is moap about waiting for the golden BA ticket, second, the CEP program may not start for another few years.

If you want to fly as a career, then I suggest you start doing something associated to it: learn to fly in PPL etc.

Many on this forum work in IT, and use it to fund their flying careers - either doing modular courses, or saving for a ab-initio.

But, if you are a graduate, you may also find that parts of the IT industry are pants at the moment re hiring people.

[Capt Pit Bull]

Sorry to break it to you but this industry is never in a condition that could be described as normal.

CPB

[Tank_1981]

ppl I've talked to who are in the know edd say it could be anything between 2-3yrs. Don't hope on new trainee pilot positions for a very long time though, after sept 11th and the massive layoff of pilots by airlines there's a pretty big surplus and airlines will inevetably employ someone with experience over an absolute novice

[sickBocks]

Start a career that maximises your dosh intake and then ditch it when the time is right - that way if the sponsorships amount to nowt you will have some funds behind you to use later on for professional training. Wouldn't advise doing a mind-numbing part-time temp job (i.e. data entry) while waiting for the flying to take-off coz that only adds to the soul-destroying nature of the industry at present.

sB

[scroggs]

In many ways it would be reasonable to suggest that the airline employment situation now is closer to normality than it was before 9/11! It is unlikely that airline cadet schemes will return in significant numbers for two or three years, maybe longer. For the forseeable future, the only guaranteed way of getting an ATPL is either to pay for it yourself, or join the RAF (or RN), do 16 years and get it paid for you. In fact, that way you might end up with an airline job before some of those that do it themselves!. .(Joke, chaps, OK?)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

2 years from now self sponsored guys will start getting jobs without being Lottery sized lucky. The BA TEP should be running again by then as well.

Would be my guess. Note the use of the term Guess.

WWW

[ILS27R]

Providing something doesn't kick off in the Gulf.

[aces low]

from waht I am reading in the aviation press, I think we can forget about it being 'normal'ever again. The changes in legislation regarding EU negotiated agreements with the US, carriers going to the wall, low cost initiatives, changing fleets etc means that we may be entering a new and hence uncertain phase of development for the industry. My guess is that there will be more aircraft working harder by 2004 and there will be an instructor shortage in that year...and a pilot shortage the year after. Unless it all kicks off...

Just a guess

[Lucifer]

I'd say get into something with a good training scheme for your degree (IBM I believe do, or QinetiQ) but which does not tie you to a contract for period of time any longer than perhaps a year or 18 months. With a degree in computer science you should be able to start something good which could pan out as a career if you are unable to get into aviation any time soon, will pay well, and should look good for the interviews.

[Irish Flyer]

Ed2000uk, I suppose I am in a similar position as yourself. I too have recently graduated with a good degree in IT and like yourself was in the middle of applying for BA before 11/10. I am under the opinion that things will pick up in the next year or so but I don't expect any sponsorship schemes to be running for quite a few years yet. I have been very lucky however to secure a loan for a ab initio course starting soon thanks to very supportive parents who have guaranteed a substancial amount for me. I am under the opinion that in two years time the situation in the industry will have improved and that there will be sufficient jobs available for the low timers.

[cleared24right]

Things are going the right way now, with the recent advertisement for the British European Sponsorship things are looking up for a lucky few!

(if they have 180TT)

[Quarternion.]

Computer science degree?

Have you ever considered joining a flight simulator company, they are crying out for people and are taking on graduates.

If you are interested in aviation, building a variety of level D sims, learning about different aircraft cockpits and traveling the world installing them. Then give it go.

When the market picks up (and it will) you can jump to the real thing with some experience. Be pretty proficient at a sim check.

Alternately, you may decide that you cannot take the pay cut leaving computers or that it would be too boring sitting in a cockpit watching instruments instruments when you have already been involved in what makes them work !!!

Suggest you give it a go and use your salary to pay for weekend flying.

All the best.

[Jetavia]

Here is IATA's newest outlook for the future :

Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition

. .IATA: LATEST PASSENGER FORECAST SHOWS EFFECT OF SEPTEMBER 11th AND POINTS TO THE RECOVERY AHEAD

. .IATA’s ‘Passenger Forecast 2001-2005 Special Interim Edition’ reflects the sharp impact on the aviation business of the global downturn and September 11th. An initial 2001-2005 forecast withheld from publication in September 2001, has now been replaced by this new interim edition. The new forecast was completed with the help of input from IATA Member Airlines between November 2001 and January 2002. It also compares current views with the initial September five year forecast.

The Interim Forecast highlights the downturn in growth in 2001 and predicts a continued contraction in early 2002. However, it also reveals the scale and shape of the recovery expected from late 2002 onwards.

Some key findings are:

• The route areas where the five year forecasts average annual growth rate (AAGR) has significantly been downgraded from IATA’s original September forecast are: Transatlantic, Transpacific and Europe to the Middle East. These are also the markets to demonstrate the strongest recovery from 2003 onwards. . . . .• The Intra-European route area, the largest of the international passenger markets, is estimated to achieve an AAGR of over 4% over the period 2001-2005, with low-cost carriers continuing to stimulate demand.

• The AAGR for total scheduled international passengers is 3.5%, down from 4.7% in the original 2001 forecast. This growth is made up of a clear decline in 2001, stabilisation in 2002, and then recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on international scheduled services is estimated to reach 637 million by 2005.

• The outlook for growth in domestic passenger traffic shows an AAGR of 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the original forecast, The domestic forecast anticipates a decline in both 2001 and 2002, before recovery from 2003 onwards. On this projection the annual number of passengers on domestic scheduled services is estimated to reach 1.2 billion by 2005.

IATA’s Passenger Forecast Special Interim Edition was derived from a supplementary survey of the world’s major airlines, airports and civil aviation authorities, and the expert opinion and commentary of staff from within IATA’s Aviation, Information and Research department. This edition reports the consensus opinion of the aviation industry’s forecasting and strategic planning experts since September 11th, and provides commentary on the current and future development of the global passenger market.

Source: <a href="http://www.iata.org" target="_blank">www.iata.org</a>

[Polar_stereographic]

May I add my personal opinion on this as found on the following:

<a href="http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=41&t=002575" target="_blank">http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=41&t=002575</a>

You'll see the replies in there, the same of which will probably be posted here by the moderators.

PS

[BillyFish2]

WWW, a quick (& probably dumb) question,

What is B.A's TEP? I know what the CEP and DEP mean. Or is it just a typo?

[InFinRetirement]

When will the industry be back to normal?

It depends on what your definition of normal is.

At this time of the year, year in year out, the airline industry supports itself from the shoulder months of the previous year. That is April/May to end of October. That, of course, is largely relevant to charter companies more than scheduled operators, but passenger figures always fall and they further fell disastrously low as a result of 11/9.

In October I gave an opinion on what I thought, from experience, the outcome of this might be. I said that I think we would see an upturn in business in March and further growth from then on. I think that will happen. What I also think will happen, is that this growth will encourage further growth. BAA have already seen signs of this and it will be interesting to see what Easter traffic is like. I would take a bet it won't be far off last year. As always, people have had enough of being "put down" and will start to migrate back to flying - probably in a mad rush. The short memory syndrome!

This effect, should it happen, will catch the airlines out. The result will be a shortfall in capacity and people will not be able to travel.

Much has been written in the past 24 hours about the Virgin deal. What other deals are being made as we speak we can only wonder. But I also bet that more aircraft are on the cards for other operators. More pilots will be wanted and I expect call-back lists have already been drawn up.

I also said that I thought that some pilots with low hours may find that they can get an interview if they push and shove their way through to the front. I think this is a probabilty too.

Long term I think the same applies now as it did after 11/9, that cadet schemes and other sponsorships will be hard to come by, but I am still sure they will start, albeit at low levels of activity. So you still have to keep up with the news.

Plan what you want to do according to your pocket and don't overstretch on the basis that one swallow makes a summer. Wait! The worm IS turning but as Scoggs says, there is still some way to go. Just how far may turn out to be a bit of a surprise.

But like I always say - DON'T GIVE UP!

[Polar_stereographic]

InFinRetirement

A very good reply if I may say so, and one that echoes my long held beliefs. Nothing that I have seen to date leads me to think otherwise.

PS

ps Hope I'm right.

[sickBocks]

BillyFish2

TEP = Trainee Entry Pilot (BA's own nomenclature for what they previously titled CEP)

sB

[Autofly]

IFR,

We can always rely on you to keep our spirits up <img src="wink.gif" border="0"> .

..... and the caution advice is well noted.

Auto

[BillyFish2]

Ta sickBocks & I'll second that Polar!

[Meeb]

As usual IFR has got it. Bookings over Easter are way up, just spoke to a major long haul booking agency and they are finding it hard to find any availability over Easter, except for USA which is still a bit slow. The airlines have cut back so far that they will be caught out, lets hope they see it before it happens or it might work against the industry, but the recovery is under way.

[VTOL]

I think that IFR has hit the nail with his usual style - I just hope that he's right!

As for the rest of us wannabes we've just got to keep on chipping away at the coalface to get to where we want to be...

On a personal note, I've just booked my IMC and Night course for later on this year and am (finally) sorting out how the hell I'm going to fund my ATPL studies.

Autofly - long time no see, I will reply to your email I promise!

VTOL :)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Now I don't want to be a real misery - despite my letter in this months Flyer. BUT. I personally know of 4 airline pilots averaging, oh, about 5000hrs each on everything from jets to glass turboprops to HS748's that are OUT OF WORK.

I further know of 15 fully qualified CPL/IR Frzn ATPL holders with &lt;500hrs WITH WHOM I HAVE FLOWN who are OUT OF WORK.

And I am but one man and have been out of flying training for over a year now.

Its all very well Virgin announcing that they are NOT cancelling the 10 new Airbi but lets be honest. They are not even built yet. It'll take until 2004 for them to all come on line. That hardly helps guys trying to pay next months rent.

And every month that goes by more and more people join the queue. CABAIR, OATS and BAE alone have pumped out 400 low time pilots since Sept 11th. In the next 6 months they will do the same and only then will numbers dip as people put off training post attack.

I don't care how decicated and brilliant you are its going to be a living nightmare getting a job when there are 800+ similarly qualified applicants for every job.

I do not dispute for a second that the industry is recovering strongly. This is a mild crisis by Gulf War standards. Albeit dependent on the USA of A taking on Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Libya and North Korea as has been hinted at. The good time will return.

But for now I cannot think of a worse industry to be getting into. It would be easier becoming a Luton car maker or South Wales steel worker than an airline pilot at the moment. Its a brilliant job, rewarding career and worthwhile pursuit. But join at the right time and spare yourself the heartache of endless Sod Off letters. Its EXPENSIVE maintaining your IR and the clock is ticking on your ATPL exams. Why not save yourself some money and stress and delay those exams and that IR?

Don't ever give up your dream. Do make your dream more pleasurable and go to sleep at the right time - which in my view will not be for at least another year.

WWW

[TomPierce]

[quote]Its all very well Virgin announcing that they are NOT cancelling the 10 new Airbi but lets be honest. They are not even built yet. It'll take until 2004 for them to all come on line. That hardly helps guys trying to pay next months rent.<hr></blockquote>

. .Not quite right WWW. The first one will be on line in June, THREE more by October - this year. The remaining six by 2006. BBC yesterday! Four aircraft x 6 crews(?) = 72 pilots!

[ILS27R]

Good post WWW.

What happens if you are in the middle of those exams by distance learning?

I guess it wouldn't hurt to gain a CPL- as this has the same validity as a PPL.

However, the IR is a different story altogether. Would it be such a hardship if you were to let 3 years go by without gaining your IR? How many ATPL exams do you have to do again?

What do you guys think?

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

UTC - thanks for that correction. 4 this year = good. 2006 = poor.

Keeping an IR current will cost the best part of £2000 a year. It will also be extremely stressful as you passed last time at the zenith of your flight training and now have 52 weeks of rust to overcome.

I think as policy it is a good idea to plan your entry into the market such that you can get a first job within 12 months. I did my IR in Nov 1999 and by Nov 2000 I was in the position that BAE had to pay for my renewal and flight preparation. This is an ideal situation and I commend it to everyone.

Do everything bar the IR and the ATPL exams would be my advice at the moment. If you have a reasonably lucrative job - keep it for a while. Remember employers often ask - How many hours Total and THEN How many hours in the last 12 months? If you have low time then the total figures will be all of a muchness. Your initial application may stand or fall on the basis of the last 12 months hours total. Just to pass the secretary test i.e. "Bin any CV's that don't have 100hrs in the last 12 months".

With factors such as this plus currency for sim rides it looks sensible to enter the market when you have a realistic chance of a job within 12 months. If that means delaying at the moment - which I believe it does - then its the smart thing to do.

WWW

[scroggs]

The 'announcement' of Virgin's order for A340-600s is more than a bit misleading. These aircraft were ordered in 1997/8. Since October 2001 there has been much haggling between Virgin and Airbus over whether the order would actually go ahead. The announcement this week was that the order was indeed re-confirmed, thanks to some nifty re-financing very much in Virgin's favour.. .Unfortunately (for you), these aircraft are scheduled to be one-for-one replacements for the old A340-300s, although there may be a review of that later in the delivery schedule. So there won't be any new jobs at Virgin as a result.. .However, as IFR says, there are strong signs that things are on the way to a good recovery. The beancounters are unlikely to authorise any recovery of lost capacity this year (which is why it's going to be a bad year to get a cheap holiday!), but 2003 may well see much of the capacity restored. That will mean that most of the pilot jobs lost in the last 6 months will return over the next 10-20 months, and those made unemployed will be back in the saddle again - if they want to be. A proportion won't come back, so there will be some jobs for newbies. I don't see a net increase in capacity, and thus jobs, until 2004. That's when I think that the market for you guys will start to look reasonably healthy - but there will be a huge backlog of fATPLs to clear. It may well be that by 2006 the airlines will be screaming for new pilots, as there will be a dip in the output from the FTOs over the next 2 years. However, that's 4 years away!. .So, keep your chins up but have a back up plan to keep some income coming in in the meantime.

[edd2000uk]

Thanks for all the responses. Since my post I've been to stage 1 of the malgus selection, so keeping my fingers crossed for that. I'm also going to look into getting a loan for flight training.

Edd

[Jetavia]

.. every foreign JAR certificate holder will apply for a jobs with UK carriers, especially the lowfares ... talk about increaced competition .. <img src="eek.gif" border="0">

[BillyFish2]

fly4food,

But doesn't that work both ways? Now UK holders of the JAA ATPL can apply for every other member country's pilot vacancies.

[RVR800]

Not in France apparantly

quelle suprise, Non!

Recevez monsieur l'expression de nos salutations. .distinguees

Of course speaking the lingo helps as well

Balpa put the number of casualties since 9/11. .at over 1100 all type rated multi-crew mates

It may improve rapidly but we are as Scroggs points out we are looking at years not months....

[ 26 February 2002: Message edited by: RVR800 ]</p>

[Polar_stereographic]

RVR800,

Check your mail.

Those figures, are they UK alone? I must say I'd like to see their break down, in terms of airline a x number etc. I know BA have not let anyone go, Virgin's actual numbers are realy quite small, Gill let off 40 or so, but we are a long way short of the 1100.

It might be a bit of creative acounting going on here I suspect.

btw, re the France bit, check my comments in the Frozen ATPL deadline thread.

PS

[BillyFish2]

RVR800,

That is indeed France for you but not necessarily the rest of Europe.

Our French friends have been at this protectionist lark a long time before anyone ever thought up the JAA. For instance, try using a UK or Irish engineering degree in France to get a job - not bloody likely, an MSc might get just you a technician's job. Try getting an electronic, electrical or telecom system approved for use in France - ah no I don't think so, unless you can dress it up and make it look like it was designed or made in France. However when someone goes to sell top quality beef to the French, the open European market suddenly gets very 'a la carte'!

OK so I know this comes from an commercial engineering perspective but France is the only country in the EU to throw up barriers as high for imports. Deal with Spain, Italy, Portugal, Germany, Denmark and (most of!) the rest and this never ever happens. They only want to know: will it work and how much. With France, it is an entirely different matter.

[scroggs]

Polar,. .I believe those figures are UK only. I'm afraid your perception of the number of jobs lost is quite wrong.. .BA may not have made any pilots compulsorily redundant, but there are 400 fewer aircrew jobs in BA mainline than there were this time last year. Virgin has lost 160 pilots and 90 flight engineers - hardly small numbers, I think you'll agree - and BMI has got rid of 109 pilots. Gill's 40 you know about. There are many more, but I don't have the figures to hand, but just those few add up to about 800. 1100 is quite easy to believe.

[Jetavia]

Billyfish2

Well nearly all Europeans speak and understand english ... but how many languages do the English and Irish speak .. spanish, german, french, scandinavian languages ??

The number of applicants from the other European countries will far exceed the number of UK, Irish applications the other way .. due to the language barrier .. me think .. <img src="rolleyes.gif" border="0">

[ 26 February 2002: Message edited by: fly4food ]</p>

[twistedenginestarter]

ed2000

You've got an IT degree. Become a contractor. Work for a year or two and buy an ATPL. After that work six months of the year and spend the other flying for nothing. Yes, I think it'll get like PFT in America. There's just too many sub 2000 hrs people chucking about to expect to get paid much longer.

[howmuch]

haven't had time to read the pages of replys but not sure if any one has mentioned the resession just around the corner! . .should stuff most airlines for a good 6 months to a year. it did in the US ! . . .i would get a good job , there;s plently for your sort of degree , save a bit money and get a PPL . what you have to ask yourself is it worth it ? 40k for a licence to fly back and forward to palma all day (thank-you easy jet). i felt it wasn't worth the risk and took an even greater risk of forming an investment company with a small american stock broker! i guess the risk of CPL flying was just too great.

. .neil. . .'Capital First Group' Alternative Investments.

[BillyFish2]

neil - wait till you get the bug. Then it will be worth the risk.

[Quarternion.]

Well so far the thread is as cheerful as they come, might as well cheer it up further !!!

Short term - No jobs, excess of experience pilots on the market. Got to have a contact to get in. When you're in the salary is poor.

Medium term - Probably a pick up in two to three years, if recession dosen't hit or the Americans take matters further in the Gulf.

Long term - Well with Rockwell flying these pilotless aircraft (the size of business jets) across the atlantic and the cockpit technology increasing year on year. You've probably got 15 to 20 years left of multi-crew operations, followed by a lowering of standards required for single pilot operations as technology takes over.

Before anyone jumps down my throat passionately saying there will always be a pilot at the front of the aircraft - the passengers won't accept it. No one seems to mind jumping into the unmanned airport shuttle at the Gatwick Satalite pre-boarding. What with 9/11 and Human Error the major cause of accidents, the drive is already there to ensure more control is directed from the ground.

Think long and hard before buying yourself into a career like being a bus conductor. Before you know it, bus conductors will be surplus to requirements.

I thought long and hard, but the bug got to me I'm afraid and I would still rather be in a cockpit than flying around behind a desk, recession or no recession, future or no future after all you only live once !!!

[Rowley]

http://www.stopstart.fsnet.co.uk/smilie/artillery.gif

[spitfire747]

Quatermain

Are you the pessimist amongst us ?

Good News I heard today, money is being spent investigating the possible site for a new 4 runway airport in Kent.....Things must be going to get better !!!

[Quarternion.]

Splotfire797,

Yep, you're right, I'm unfortunately having a pessimistic day.

Just jumped out of one cockpit 10 years old into another cockpit of today. Differences are pretty staggering. Introduction of glass cockpit, TCAS, GPS, HUD, Improved FMGC, EGWPS, computer control, sidestick etc....

Exprapolate those differences 30 years from now, incorporate latest military technology. You'll only need one man to do the job. Put in an emergency overide from the ground (probably on the cards after 9/11 in the US) and anyone will be able to sit in the Captains seat.

No you're right its totally pie in the sky - lets put my pilot hat on and now be optimistic, yes, it will never happen because you always need two pilots at the front of an aircraft.

But think of it - if it goes that way there will be one advantage in 30 years time - you won't need the 500 hours multi-crew to get a JAR ATPL!!!!

[EGCC4284]

VTOL,

Instead of wasting your money on an IMC. .and night rating, would you not be better doing . .a correspondence ATPL course first as your IR will. .cover IMC and night flying.

Put the money that you would of spent on IMC. .and night towards ATPL. <img src="cool.gif" border="0">

[Airbus A320]

Hi there,. .. .First of all, I'll apologise if I haven't done my homework and noticed if this point has been raised elsewhere.. .. .Secondly, I would like to make a point in saying that I think British Airlines are (or rather, were, before 11/09) a soft touch, or foreign airlines are far too stringent. You look at a crewing roster of any airline like easyJet or Ryanair and the like and you'll notice that there are many pilots who are not British. I'm not saying that these foreign dudes are not any less competent than a British pilot and any less deserving for a job assuming they have the right qualifications, but when a British airline can hire anybody with the appropriate licences and ratings and companies like Air France, Iberia, Lufthansa.....etc generally only employ people from their own country, the European governments need to take a shake to themselves and realise that the JAA was set up for a reason, and one of those reasons was to increase employment prospects for all European pilots.. .. .And now, that I've had my moan, I'll let somebody else get a word in.. .. .Cheers

[Stratocaster]

It seems this post could last for 200 years... <img border="0" title="" alt="[Big Grin]" src="biggrin.gif" /> . .. .Don't underestimate the language barrier ! I'm not defending the protectionist attitude, I'm just saying that the British would have everything to gain by learning at least another language.

[Polar_stereographic]

May I draw your attention to the following:. .. .<a href="http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=018002" target="_blank">http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic;f=1;t=018002</a>. .. .I have also heard this and more from a reliable source.. .. .PS