Unemployment problem, why?

[superflanker]

Hi!
I tried to find a post of this matter, but they were too old or unspecific.

I read posts of finding job as a pilot (airline, air work, instruction, etc.) and it's very clear that it's a very difficult task, specially if it's the first job. There are obviously too many pilots for not too many jobs.

My question is, how can this be? With the money that takes to a CPL, are there that many people obtaining it every year? And if we compare this numbers with the growth of airline transport (I assume it's growing) and the people taht retires because of the age, shouldn't be all the opposite?

Has anyone got information/statistics about this?

[BusAirDriver]

Mainly issue is oversupply of low hour pilots, there are trained to many pilots.

Few years ago I heard when a company opened for recruitment, which also included non-experienced pilots, there was 4000 - 5000 applications for 100 jobs.

The demand today, is at has always been, demand for experienced guys with jet hours, hours on type etc. People who could be close to command, the real demand in the business is not for FO's, but for Captains.

This is a trend that could force the business one day in the near future to start doing Single pilot operations on commercial flights, as this would solve the airlines issues with having enough crew, supplies of crews and more importantly save the company billions.

Tests are being done by both Boeing and Airbus, on creating air-planes that can operate without crews, trough ground link, central control centre, this is the future of the business, there will be one pilot in the cockpit and one on the ground monitoring several aircraft, and I am pretty sure in the not to distant future, this will happen.
Maybe in 15 - 20 years time, that would not surprise me.

[superflanker]

I read some of this news. I know that if this is something that saves companies money, of course it will be a reality.
But I think it has it's drawbacks:

1-Implementing a complex system in ground and fleet (lots of money). Maintaining this system (lots of money).

2-If one pilot has to be on the cockpit, eventually, they will retire(or go to another company, or whatever). So, in order to replace them, you will have to train pilots. So, to train pilots you will have to hire pilots to be FO and to learn from captains... wait, it's the same system than now.

3-Complacency among crew. IA is not as flexible as human being. If you want to have pilots who can resolve tricky situations, you have tro train them...(go back to point 2).

4-Does this provide any commercial advantage between a company that has it and a company that doesn't? (seeing this at the passanger's point of view)

Of course, I am a person who doesn't want this to happen ever. So my thinking could be very subjetive.

[PA28161]

You also should note that the likes of CTC, OAAC or any other ATO for that matter will gladly take your money and promise you the earth, or at least an FO's job. The reality is that these establishments are just like any other business with eyes firmly fixed on the bottom line. Profit for investors and shareholders. They will tell you anything you want to believe and take your money, but no job at the end. This is why there are so many CPL/IR's fATPL et al all chasing far too few RHS jobs.
Airlines are interested in Captains, not FO's

[BusAirDriver]

"Airlines are interested in Captains, not FO's" - Exactly, this is the real demand today, Captains, that's where the problem is today, and what bears truth in the expression of great demand, however most the FTO's fail to mention this during their recruitment sales.

"superflanker" - Regarding points of airplanes with 1 pilot, if we look how aviation has developed the last 20 - 30 years, this does seem inevitable unfortunately.
Sure the cost initially would be big for companies, however considering how much they would save on crew salaries, training hotels etc., it would be billions, not millions. The military already have airplanes without pilots, and I could imagine with future developments in technology it would be fairly easy to have 1 pilot on the ground, being able to log into and remotely control an aircraft if required. The pilot on the ground would probably be "co-pilot / backup pilot" for up to 20 - 30 aircraft, in case of emergency / non normal situations.

So it would still be humans controlling the aircraft, just that the second human / pilot, will be on the ground, being able to take control of X amount of aircrafts if required.
The technology to fly these aircraft remotely from the ground already exists today.

Training pilots would not be an issue, they would be on the line for a certain period of sectors, before they would be released.

I could also see an advancement on todays CDPLC technology, where ATC will via datalink be able to control the aicraft 100%, by sending messages that would automatically control the aircraft without crews intervention.

All this might sound far fetched for many today, but I think it's highly plausible that this will be the future of aviation within the next 20 - 30 years. I will hopefully be well retired before it happens, but I do believe it will eventually happen at some stage.

The savings on money is to big, also it will resolve the issue with not enough Captains, it will resolve many crewing issues that exist today, that causes cancellations due to lack of crew etc., and most cancellations I have seen if it's been due to lack of crew, have been due to lack of Captains, no FO's.

It will reduce training costs etc. A company with 500 FO's, would save at least 40.000.000, if not more, that is a significant number. (That would be an airline with around 80 - 100 aircraft)