UK & Argentine Falklands Rapprochement

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/dec/20/uk-and-argentina-agree-to-identify-unknown-victims-of-falklands-war

Britain and Argentina appear to have made significant headway towards improving relations after reaching an agreement to identify the bodies of more than 100 unknown Argentinian soldiers buried on the Falklands Islands after the 1982 war. The two countries also agreed to increase the number of flights between Argentina and the islands, which they claim as the Malvinas.

The 74-day war, which began when Argentina seized the islands and Britain sent a taskforce to retake them, saw 649 Argentinian and 255 British soldiers, as well as three Falkland islanders, lose their lives.

Under the agreement announced on Tuesday, the Red Cross will assemble a team of forensic experts, including two Argentinians, who will retrieve DNA samples from 123 unidentified Argentinian combatants buried at at Darwin Cemetery on East Falkland. The samples will then be compared against the samples taken from the volunteer Argentinian families. Work on identifying the remains will begin early next year, according to the Argentinian foreign ministry’s statement.

The two governments also announced that talks are proceeding smoothly for the opening of extra flights between the South American mainland and the islands. FCO minister Sir Alan Duncan tweeted that Argentina and Britain had “agreed a way forward on new flights from Falkland Islands to Latin America”. Press reports in Argentina indicated that these could include a flight from São Paulo, Brazil, and Mount Pleasant airport near Port Stanley, the capital of the islands, stopping over at Argentina’s capital city, Buenos Aires. The Argentinian foreign ministry said in its statement: “Both countries will negotiate with the air authorities in Brazil and Chile to determine what the stopovers will be.”

At the moment a twice-weekly flight is operated by the British ministry of defence from the United Kingdom to the Falklands, as well as a weekly flight from Punta Arenas in Chile that makes a monthly stopover at Rio Gallegos in Argentina.

Relations between London and Buenos Aires have improved significantly since Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, took office a year ago. Macri abandoned the confrontative attitude of former president Cristina Kirchner, who restricted hydrocarbon exploration in the area around the islands and at one point barred sea cruisers bound for the Falklands from docking at Argentinian ports.

The agreement was signed in London by Sir Alan Duncan, minister for Europe and the Americas at the Foreign Office, and Argentinian foreign deputy minister Pedro Villagra Delgado. The signing was attended by Falkland Islands officials.

[Fonsini]

I wonder if the MOD will start prosecuting Falklands vets for "murdering" Argentinians, you know, as part of the healing process :hmm:

[MACH2NUMBER]

ORAC,
Yes, things are easing diplomatically, but some of my friends in the Falklands are more fearful now of this new administration. They say the last one was looney, but this is more suave and subtle. The overall aim to take over the 'Malvinas' still remains.

[tornadoken]

Quite. When Spain jabbers Gib...Gib...Gib as the price of its Vote to endorse a Brexit settlement, Arg will gently ask its cousin to add Las Malvinas...

[Heathrow Harry]

People I know in the FI always said that if the Argies had kept up their softly softly approach in the 70's they'd be part of Argentina now - and those around at the time thought it was a realistic option as HMG couldn't give a stuff about them........

[ian16th]

Quite. When Spain jabbers Gib...Gib...Gib as the price of its Vote to endorse a Brexit settlement, The idiots in the Foreign Office missed their golden opportunity when Spain was allowed into the EU without them formally denouncing all and any claims on Gib.

[Wander00]

Orsini - you never know....

[Arclite01]

I think the offshore oil, fisheries and proximity to Antarctica will guarantee our interest for many years to come................

[Cynic]

Arc

[glad rag]

A long way to go BUT the idealist in me would hope that a pragmatic approach from Argentina could provide Argentina with some fiscal stability and the means to improve their society and most importantly bring political enlightenment...as I said, a LONG way to go..

[Heathrow Harry]

Well how many Argies actually want to go and live in the FI? Probably count them on the fingers of one hand - I can see them replacing the Chileans and Saints who work there for the high wages and then bugger off home but live there permananetly?????

[West Coast]

Probably count them on the fingers of one hand

By what means have you arrived at this conclusion?

[JAVELINBOY]

West Coast, I dare say Heathrow Harry has been there hence his conclusion

[West Coast]

I've been to North Dakota many times where today it is exceedingly cold and typographically boring. You can watch your dog run away for a week it's so flat. Despite having been there and and finding reason to cede it to Canada, the growth rate is enviable.

New horizons will always attract new comers, be it for adventure, for profit or escaping a past life. That's human nature. In no way saying the Argies have a right to, but if offered the opportunity, there'd be more than a handful showing up.

[engineer(retard)]

Regardless of the political situation, I think this rapprochement is long overdue and the soldiers need to be put properly to rest and there families informed. I always found the "soldier known only to God" markings as being very saddening.

[MACH2NUMBER]

West Coast,
The Falkland Islands are not in any way like North Dakota except for the big sky. The typography, flora and fauna are certainly very interesting. The climate is actually quite pleasant, the only drawback being the wind. Most of my friends there have come from many generations of British settlers. It is their land and they want it to remain so and keep their strong link to the UK. If you are from the USA, you would certainly fight to keep it.
Great news that the Argentinians can finally identify their dead, God knows we certainly lost many of our own.

[West Coast]

You're aiding my point Mach. The thought that Argies wouldn't want to move in if offered the chance is laughable.

[ImageGear]

I would suggest that there are more similarities with Alaska.

Inhospitable climate, low permanent population, servicing the needs of a much larger oil, gas and mining economy.

Tourists and temporary economic migrants doeth not a settler make.

I expect that FI would become more of a tax haven than a viable industrial economy kept alive by overly large ego's

Imagegear

[Basil]

Argentina has no claim whatsoever to islands out in the South Atlantic which are British territory.
By all means let them identify and repatriate their dead whose demise is entirely the fault of Galtieri but no rapprochement is possible whilst their leaders try to use such a bogus claim to ingratiate themselves with their Argentinian citizens.

Galtieri was a destroyer who ruined a good relationship between our two countries.

[Heathrow Harry]

there's plenty of identical country to the FI in Southern Argentina which isn't exactly overrun by people either.... my FI friends tell me they reckon the wages would be a major attraction but otherwise why would they go there?

If & when the oil kicks in the FI will be a very rich place - like other suddenly rich places you may well find the other generation decide to give up traditional practices and live the high life with all the menial tasks (like running the place) out sourced to Brits, Saints, Gurkhas, Argies and Chileans.........

PS before I'm accused of being a fully fledged surrender monkey - for the record the Argentinean Claim to the FI is probably one of the least credible "claims" to other people's territory floating around World Politics...................... they were wrong (and stupid) to invade and we were right to take it back

[Fareastdriver]

If & when the oil kicks in the FI will be a very rich place

Dream along! Oil will take decades, if ever, to reach the $100+/bbl of recent years. I cannot think of a more expensive place to extract and transport oil than the Falklands Islands and I've been to a few.

They may continue to explore, assess and plug for a few more years yet but I cannot see any bonanza materialising.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Fareastdriver, you are spot on. If it was economically viable it would have been exploited many years ago. With the current glut of oil extending into the foreseeable future, I find it difficult to foresee the FI ever being a rich oil based economy.

[Basil]

Nevertheless, why give away a possible asset even if not valuable until the future?

Why did we sell the Harriers? :rolleyes:

[Marcantilan]

For the record, Argentine claim has some grounds. Last time I´ve check the majority of the international community supports Argentine position...even US backed the claim before 1982.

I don´t want to convince anyone here, just I think is appropiate to mention it.

Regards to all,

[ORAC]

Forget the oil, the associated islands to the south gives the UK it's historic rights to its territories in Antarctica - which whilst currently unexploited for environmental reasons, are worth untold trillions in the future.


https://www.bas.ac.uk/about/antarctica/environmental-protection/mining/

https://www.princeton.edu/~ota/disk1/1989/8926/892606.PDF

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Antarctic_Territory

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2007/oct/17/antarctica.sciencenews

[Basil]

For the record, Argentine claim has some grounds. Last time I´ve check the majority of the international community supports Argentine position...even US backed the claim before 1982.

I don´t want to convince anyone here, just I think is appropiate to mention it.

Regards to all,
Courteously put, as I'd expect from an Argentinian gentleman.
The whole thing was a disaster for our relationship.

[Heathrow Harry]

Good post by Marcantilan

But the rest of us should be careful about saying the oil price will "never" recover - it has done so many times. It takes about 3-5 years for the projects approved and started at $ 120 a barrel to finally be completed. After that the oil companies start again, and their supply chain readjusts to $ 50 a barrel - less gold plating, less specialisation, wage cuts and job cuts (the UK oil business has lost tens of thousands of jobs in the last 2 years).

Governments adjust the fiscal terms to keep jobs, financiers see "bargains", and the oil fields still pump away 24/7 generating cash flow

Happened in 1986-88, 1999-2001 etc etc

[Fareastdriver]

It's slightly different this time. OPEC hasn't got the clout that it used to have especially when the world's largest consumer doesn't need it. The world is awash with oil and even China is using its clout to make itself self sufficient.

<a href='http://www.macrotrends.net/2562/us-crude-oil-production-historical-chart'>U.S. Crude Oil Production - Historical Chart</a>

There's a lot more bad news for OPEC in the attached graphs.

Crude Oil Prices - 70 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends (http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart)

[Heathrow Harry]

OPEC didn't have muchclout on 1999-2000 but the price still came back

US shale oil/gas will undoubtedly have an effect but the oil companies have a very long history of re-inventing themsleves and still making money......

[Fonsini]

As this is a military forum and not a political one I would be far more interested in a professional assessment of the respective Argentinian and British forces and an analysis of the likely outcome of events should hostilities recommence today with all the unexpected suddeness that they did back in 1982.

It is interesting to me that many of the major weapon systems from 34 years ago are still in use today albeit in upgraded forms. The Type 42 destroyer wasn't new in 1982 and only saw an end to its active service just 3 years ago, the Argentinians are still flying A-4s, Rapier (which didn't work very well in 1982) is still in service, Sea Wolf, Stingray, Chinook, and Lynx to name but a few systems are still in service, amazingly even Sea Skua which must have shelf life issues at this point. Mercifully the appalling Seacat and Blowpipe missile systems are a thing of the past, along with the equally useless Tigerfish torpedo. I could bang on ad nauseam about the individual merits and demerits of specific systems but bigger picture wise I do wonder how things would play out today especially with the UK lacking any carriers and the absence of superb assets like the Sea Harrier FA2.

As for saying it could never happen again with today's more "evolved" Argentina - I don't personally subscribe to that opinion as emotions still run very hot on the subject down south.

[Heathrow Harry]

The UK is far better off - a very large air base is the main change and a few state of the art fighters (far more effective one hopes than the SHAR) - but without any medium/long range AA missile defence it must be open to a take-out strike

Argentina is certainly less effective - the Armed Forces have been short of cash for maintenance and upgrades for a couple of decades...........

[Wander00]

Surely the key is that about 98% of Falkland Islanders want to remain British

[Heathrow Harry]

I think Fonsini was thinking about another invasion scenario in the future

[Coochycool]

You've got to imagine that the Brits keep at least one Hunter Killer down there ready to TLAM the Arg air bases should the need arise

[Heathrow Harry]

They may have an SSN down there some of the time but it's to frighten off any invasion fleet

We didn't attack the mainland in the war and I really doubt we'd do so in another flare up

[TEEEJ]

Fonsini,
The A-4s are scheduled to be retired.

The Argentine Air Force has informed the Ministry of Defence that it will be retiring its fleet of Lockheed Martin (McDonnell Douglas) A-4AR Fightinghawks by 2018 due to the scarcity of replacement parts and high maintenance costs.

The decision follows the recent retirement of the Dassault Mirage fleet (the only supersonic fighter in Argentina's inventory) and would leave the air force's combat capabilities limited to the FAdeA IA-63 Pampa armed trainer and IA-58 Pucara counter-insurgency aircraft, with the latter having issues with spare parts for its Astazou engines.

Argentina received a total of 32 A-4M and 4 TA-4F aircraft in the early 1990s and these were upgraded to the A-4AR by Lockheed Martin (mostly in Argentina via a deal that included FAdeA's transfer to the US company).

Argentina to retire ageing A-4AR fleet by 2018 | IHS Jane's 360 (http://www.janes.com/article/62600/argentina-to-retire-ageing-a-4ar-fleet-by-2018)

[Fonsini]

We didn't attack the mainland in the war and I really doubt we'd do so in another flare up


We certainly had no reservations about doing so and had every intention:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mikado

SAS 'suicide mission' to wipe out Exocets - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/argentina/1387091/SAS-suicide-mission-to-wipe-out-Exocets.html)

[Frostchamber]

I appreciate the political implications of striking the mainland. But at the same time it has always struck me as odd to think that if a country is sending military aircraft to attack you, you should feel obliged to refrain from attacking and disabling the military sites (and only those military sites) that are launching the attacks because it's somehow not cricket to do so.

[Fonsini]

Fonsini,
The A-4s are scheduled to be retired.



Argentina to retire ageing A-4AR fleet by 2018 | IHS Jane's 360 (http://www.janes.com/article/62600/argentina-to-retire-ageing-a-4ar-fleet-by-2018)
Yes, the A-4ARs are currently grounded with only 5 out of the original 36 remaining airworthy. Janes reported last year that they had been offered a range of alternatives including F-16s (which have long been denied to them) but that a specific request for the F-5E had been refused by the US ?!

Current favourite is the KAI FA-50, but I would say that the Mirage 2000 makes more sense for a variety of reasons.

In other news the argentine navy has also woken up of late, their Espora class corvette the ARA Rosales was out testing Exocets in February:

PVxqlYNrwRQ

They still need to be watched.

[Heathrow Harry]

never sure why S American countries spend $$$ on newish kit - it's been a while since there was any sort of war on (other than the FI of course....)

[pasta]

never sure why S American countries spend $$$ on newish kit - it's been a while since there was any sort of war on (other than the FI of course....)
Maybe they feel it's working. A bit like the argument that there's no point in spending money on nuclear weapons, because no-one's used one for 70 years.

[MAINJAFAD]

but without any medium/long range AA missile defence it must be open to a take-out strike

Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis. Rapier FSC is actually a very good bit of kit and CAAM, the replacement for Rapier will be much more capable.

[typerated]

For the record, Argentine claim has some grounds. Last time I´ve check the majority of the international community supports Argentine position...even US backed the claim before 1982.

I don´t want to convince anyone here, just I think is appropiate to mention it.

Regards to all,
Of course Argentina has grounds. I think the UK should take full advantage of the current Argentine governments stance and put maximum effort into getting a diplomatic solution.
Everyone stands to benefit if an agreement can be reached. Despite what the locals might think a good deal for Argentina is surely the best outcome in the long term for the islanders!

[Basil]

Of course Argentina has grounds. I think the UK should take full advantage of the current Argentine governments stance and put maximum effort into getting a diplomatic solution.
Everyone stands to benefit if an agreement can be reached. Despite what the locals might think a good deal for Argentina is surely the best outcome in the long term for the islanders!
I don't think so. Such a policy opens the floodgates to any beleaguered dictator or government to do a bit of grandstanding.
In the words of a man, much greater than I: "Never give in!"

[typerated]

I was looking forward not looking back.

So we can never find an agreement with them because of their actions in 82?

[Chinny Crewman]

The wishes of the inhabitants of Diego Garcia counted for nothing when British interests conflicted with them. I'm sure when the treasury decides it's too expensive and the Govt thinks it can get away with it the issue of sovereignty will be solved.
As for the military aspect if the Argentines were able to successfully take the islands I doubt the UK has the political determination or the military ability to retake them.

[MACH2NUMBER]

Several here are not giving serious consideration to the democratic wishes of the Falkland Islanders. Their Island was burgled and their houses trashed and ruined, civilians were killed and wounded. They have voted overwhelmingly to reject any change or sharing of sovereignty with Argentina. Its a bit like Brexit and the Remoaners. Lets just leave it at that.
Considerations of Argentine military options are inappropriate from those who know the Islands.

[Wander00]

M2N - I am with you on that - wishes of the Islanders must be the primary consideration

[Heathrow Harry]

Welllll.............. up to a point Lord Copper.........

previous UK Governments have decided against following the wishes of the inhabitants of various territories/colonies in quite a few cases - I don't think the Kelpers have any illusions about the fact that the British might ditch them when it suits us

[Heathrow Harry]

"Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis."

Indeed - but actually I was thinking of mounting them on West Falklands where they'd have a clear view to the west & north.....................

[MACH2NUMBER]

HH, I seem to remember the blessed TB saying something like "I'll never give up in peace what Maggie Thatcher won in war". Well I suppose we have had 3 PMs since then and memories quickly fade.
The examples you state of countries being ditched do not include those over we fought a full blown regional war - at least not recently.

[Heathrow Harry]

I agree that the FI should remain British but God knows what will happen if & when memories fade or we hit a full scale crisis

If they can get the oil on stream they'll be able to make an increased "voluntary contribution" to keep the armed forces there (or hire others to protect them).

If I was Argentinean I'd play a very long game - restore flights, lift sanctions and the nit-picking and just treat the inhabitants reasonably (maybe add in freebees such as university education, subsidised travel etc). Realistically aim to replace the UK as the Governing Power in say 50 years but offer exactly the same degree of self-government

[MACH2NUMBER]

HH Quite, and thats what they did before, lulled us into a false sense of security and pounced when their government was vulnerable, to restore public support. The Falkland Islanders are very right to fear charm offences, by both sides, they have seen it all before.

[glad rag]

"Total waste of time putting such weapons at MPA, too much terrain masking available on the main threat axis."

Indeed - but actually I was thinking of mounting them on West Falklands where they'd have a clear view to the west & north.....................
Blessed are they who serve West!!

[Frostchamber]

I agree that the FI should remain British but God knows what will happen if & when memories fade or we hit a full scale crisis

If they can get the oil on stream they'll be able to make an increased "voluntary contribution" to keep the armed forces there (or hire others to protect them).

If I was Argentinean I'd play a very long game - restore flights, lift sanctions and the nit-picking and just treat the inhabitants reasonably (maybe add in freebees such as university education, subsidised travel etc). Realistically aim to replace the UK as the Governing Power in say 50 years but offer exactly the same degree of self-government
Yes, that is exactly what they should do if they want to maximise their chance of success. Politics doesn't always lend itself to such a long game but in the face of successive decades of charm and warmth there must be a good chance that the UK's position - not least in terms of defensive posture - would shift over time in the face of other priorities and cost pressures. I'd hope not, but...

[Heathrow Harry]

The Argies have to make being part of Argentina more attractive than being part of the UK

Big ask but given enough time not impossible...................

[Fonsini]

The Argies have to make being part of Argentina more attractive than being part of the UK

Big ask but given enough time not impossible...................
I'm guessing you have never actually asked a Falklander that question. I have never met a resident who would do anything but resist Argentinian rule with their last breath. Similarly I have never met an Argentinian who was willing to let the UK keep the islands using anything less than force.

Make no mistake, there is no "winning over" - if we hand the islands over to Argentina it will be in flagrant denial of the islanders wishes. I'm not saying the UK hasn't done that before - but we need to be clear on the reality of the islander's perspective.

[Captivep]

Fonsini - I couldn't agree more.

When I was in a bar in Stanley (six years ago), one of the locals asked me where I was going next. As it happened, the next destination of our ship was Buenos Aires.

Without missing a beat, the islander said "give the b........ a kick from me."

One only has to look at the way the war memorial in Stanley is looked after (and the individual graves of British servicemen around the islands) to realise that it will be a very very long time before the Argentinians have the faintest chance of persuading the islanders to change their minds.

[Heathrow Harry]

"I'm guessing you have never actually asked a Falklander that question."

Wrong - I was actually talking to a couple of them just before Christmas - the older guy, some of whose family were banged up at Goose Green in the shed, is the one who told me that they expected the Brits to ditch them in the late 70's and that they might well do it again...........

The current feeling is that they may be able to do business with the current government in BA and the removal of the irritating restrictions on shipping will be very welcome as would be the renewal of flights to BA. However it will be a generation before anyone will trust the Argies again.........................

[ORAC]

Happy to talk to Argentina on the claim to the Falklands based on their presence there in 1811.

Right after they start substantive talks with the ethnic locals of Patagonia on handing it back to them after their invasion and massacre of the locals in the 1870s.

What's good for the goose and all that.....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conquest_of_the_Desert

[glad rag]

OT but having just watched the feral reaction to the top gear team from "the locals" in the Patagonia special, I think anyone who could believed, as I did earlier, that there may be a way forwards is wrong, as was I.
Argentina is deeply troubled.