Russian worries or just posturing?

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

So apparently Putin has ordered Russian families of diplomats and oversees workers to return to the motherland for fear of WW3

Syria, France visit cancelled and nuclear processing agreement cancelled with the USA are some of the latest causes for concern.

Linked on a number of sources including the Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/720430/Vladimir-Putin-orders-Russian-officials-fly-home-relatives-fears-world-war)

Is it time to head for the bunkers?

[Wyler]

What Bunkers?
The UK response to Russia's antics? Our Foreign Secretary asking for placard wavers.
I think there is a element of posturing but, let's face it, Russia can do what it likes.
The USA has left the stage, the UK could not punch it's way out of a wet paper bag and as for our 'allies' in Europe :rolleyes:

Fifth biggest economy? Fifth biggest illusion more like.

[racedo]

There is a lot of goading going on to get a reaction and its clear where it is coming from.

Listening to US State Dept Ex Military Press spokesperson stating that living under Al Qaeda in Aleppo is ok tells you something is fundamentally wrong.

US has lost its way with 5th rate politicians and chancers funded by rich Corporations seeking to have their way.

[ShotOne]

Before we get cross with the Russians, what do we want to happen? I haven't seen any coherent objectives laid out by a Western government. Still less a plan to achieve it. Last report, General Petraus was insisting we support Al Qaeda

[Basil]

Our Foreign Secretary asking for placard wavers.
https://hansard.parliament.uk/commons/2016-10-11/debates/F9DCC666-4E96-4F13-A37A-8D51120B8594/AleppoAndSyria

Boris Johnson

I listened to all the speeches that made the point that there is no commensurate horror among some of the anti-war protest groups, and I agree with the right hon. Member for Cynon Valley: I would certainly like to see demonstrations outside the Russian embassy. Where is the Stop the War coalition at the moment?

Very unfortunate comment esp when made by someone in his position but I feel he was getting at the usual domestic suspects.

[NutLoose]

I hope they don't kick off soon as we are about to start a new caption comp.

Seen this horse crock?

Vladimir Putin's ally: US must vote Donald Trump of face all out nuclear war | World | News | Daily Express (http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/720585/Vladimir-Putin-ally-Donald-Trump-nuclear-world-war-three-Vladimir-Zhirinovsky-Clinton)

[pax britanica]

i think the daily express could do with a spell working under Vlads rules and then they might find out what peddling Lies and sensationalism (as seen from the authoritative point of view of course) every day for years

What their motivation is god alone knows

[noflynomore]

What their motivation is god alone knows

Simple.

The bigger the story the bigger the coverage the bigger the sales the bigger the profit the bigger the glory for Our Wonderful "news"paper.

And nuclear war is about the biggest event they can think of, so dimwitted journos crave it because it might just be them that files that first heroic scoop report at ground zero, just before the flash...

[tartare]

Notice the similarity in photos in the article?
Two loudmouth, thuggish bullies, in both instances pointing fingers.

[AreOut]

HRC in the last debate publicly called for enforcing NFZ in Syria which would mean direct military confrontation with Russia (if you know any other way of enforcing NFZ please let me know).

When you have presidential candidate likely to win election announce something like that how could you not be worried?!

[A_Van]

One more example how paranoid interpretations (I mean mentioning WW3) from paperback press generate unnecessary fears and panic.

The issue is that it was found out that kids of some diplomats and other servants of the regime abroad were attending foreign schools and not the ones inside the embassy perimeter. The obvious goal of those parents is to later bring them to the universities and then find jobs there. Moscow bosses found it inconsistent when the fathers publicly condemn "blood thursty uncle Sam and his European vassal licking his boots" and in parallel trying to arrange for a hideaway for their kids in the countries being blamed. I do not like all those folks, but at least this position is consistent. I would be very surprised to learn that children of high-ranked offices in the US embassy in Moscow attend regular (or even elite) Russian schools.

The whole thing concerns a few hundreds of bureaucrats and their family members. So, what's the buzz, what the hell WW3?

[BEagle]

Perhaps it's because they know of terrorist cowards plotting against the embassy families and their children?

I can't feel much support for the US in Syria. Attempting regime change by assisting known terrorist groups opposing al-Assad - what a great strategy that's proving to be.

[Wokkafans]

If this is correct it's not going to help at all.

Pro-Russian rebels shoot down helicopter 'with NATO officials on board' over rebel-held eastern Ukraine - Mirror Online (http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/pro-russian-rebels-shoot-down-9048091)

"The self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic's (DPR) ministry of defence claims the chopper was downed over rebel held territory of Krasnogorovka, in Donetsk, on October 12.

It was revealed on October 13 that a Ukrainian helicopter had allegedly attempted to attack on separatist militia positions, and was shot down.

Spokesperson for the pro-Russia rebel group, Eduard Basurin, today claimed several NATO military officials were on board the aircraft, Russian news agency TASS reported.

It is currently unclear whether there were any casualties.

We'll be bringing you the very latest updates, pictures and video on this breaking news story."

[peter we]

If this is correct

FFS, are you joking? This is from the DPR, they kill 'NATO' troops, tanks etc. all the time.

[thunderbird7]

When I read the thread title about Russian posturing, I thought it meant this:

https://thenypost.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/514368548.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=664&h=441&crop=1

[Stanwell]

Umm, yeah.
You can tell by the masterful way he's trying to hold the reins that he's really in control of things, eh?
Is he still an 'A' cup or should we send him a bigger size this Christmas?

[TEEEJ]

Russian carrier task force left Severomorsk this morning (15th October) bound for the Mediterranean. Noted leaving on the Severomorsk webcam.

Should still be available on the 24 hour playback.

https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1452449401-Severomorsk

https://www.webkams.com/russia/murmanskaya/severomorsk/334345

Image from 14th October showing Admiral Kuznetsov with MiG-29K Fulcrum D and the usual Su-33 Flanker D. More than likely Russian Navy Ka-52K attack helos will be onboard?

http://files.abovetopsecret.com/files/img/hp58024146.JPG

The support tug Nikolay Chiker is currently on AIS. Task Force going down the Norwegian coast.

69.89074N 14.44927E as of 16 GMT

Map Link

https://goo.gl/maps/xG42tj7T7zE2

Vessel details for: NIKOLAY CHIKER (Tug) - IMO 8613334, MMSI 273531629, Call Sign RAL 48 Registered in Russia | AIS Marine Traffic (http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:4404011/mmsi:273531629/imo:8613334/vessel:NIKOLAY_CHIKER)

[TEEEJ]

Image from Severomorsk on the 14th October showing task force. Kuznetsov with destroyer Severomorsk and cruiser Peter the Great. Tanker likely Osipov?

http://files.abovetopsecret.com/files/img/hg58022b54.jpg

[taxydual]

Well, at least, QRA will know when and where to go thanks to the Internet and AIS. Plenty of time for a sh*t, shave and haircut.

Naval intelligence can take the weekend off too.

These are just ships on 'their lawful occasions'. No need to panic and feed a newspaper frenzy.

As for the recall of families etc I vote with BEagles view on things . Drama it ain't, sensible it is.

[Green Flash]

Perhaps they are joining in with Joint Warrior! :}

[Green Flash]

Although if there isn't an Akula lurking off the Butt of Lewis just now I'd be rather surprised.

[Rick777]

If Trump is elected we won't have to worry about. He'll give them whatever they want in exchange for some prime real-estate in Moscow. Why do you think they have been working with wiki leaks to smear Clinton? She and Putin really don't like each other. Trump regularly expresses his admiration for Putin.

[Tiger_mate]

I have been speaking with a Russian family who have resided in the USA for 16 years (the husband 25 years). They have just purchased an appartment in St Petersburg (Russia) for 'when' they have to leave America. When people put their $ into perceived risk you know we live in unpredictable times. They also think that Putin is the best state leader the country has ever had; based upon the quality of life the citizens enjoy now compared to immediately after the wall came down.

[MSOCS]

The Russian economy is going south and that is a major source of issue for Putin even though it is perhaps being downplayed by Moscow at the moment. Putin will firmly push Assad to victory in Aleppo, no matter what the cost of human life, and Assad's regime will continue to rule the parts of Syria that matter. That's Moscow's strategic end-state for this mess. However it looks like they'll now have to do it without being able to blame the West for things that go wrong. I think Admiral K is just posturing, should the West push a no-fly zone of [arguably] very limited utility.

[Buster Hyman]

What their motivation is god alone knows
Pulitzer Prize, or their very own Watergate moment.

[sitigeltfel]

NatWest have just closed all the bank accounts and facilities of the news channel, and Putins mouthpiece, Russia Today.

[A_Van]

Note that here in Russia nobody shuts down CNN, BBC, France24, DW, Euronews, etc. (just mentioning the channels I am zapping through and periodically watch). And do not tell me that they are telling truth and bloody RT is only spreading lies.

[Bigbux]

No one has shut down RT. The fact that the banks no longer wish handle RT's account in the UK may very well be to do with the fact that Putin isn't paying his bills. Obviously, this then leads to a glorious bit of propaganda where RT plays the victim of the evil West. :yuk:

How's the funding for Stop the War going? A bit ironic that, wouldn't you say?

[Heathrow Harry]

Mrs H dragged me to the Cheltenham LitFest last week

There was a really good panel discussion between a Russian lady who specialised in oil, two UK Kremlin watchers and the moderator - who was Lt-Gen. Ben Hodges, Commander US Army Europe.

They pretty much agreed on the following:-

1. Russia is in a state of "mobilisation" to recover economically and militarily the lost ground (not actual acreage!) from 1988-2005

2. We are always surprised by being surprised by events involving Russia

3. They are using Syria etc as a test ground for people, tactics and kit

4. There is a major push inside Russia to bring on younger, brighter people

5. the Russians reckon that whoever wins the election in the USA means a tougher time ahead - so there is a short window of political (rather than military) opportunity - maybe to cement in Assad etc

6. Mr Putin is important but definitely not all-powerful

7. Militarily the Baltic States are not a very serious concern after recent changes - we should worry about the Black Sea & Caucasus - Romania and especially Turkey

8. Break even for Russian oil is nowhere near the $80 a bbl quoted in the Western Press - it's more like $ 30 in fact

9. Sanctions are important politically rather than economically but they are forcing the Russians to look at alternative sources for ANY critical kit currently sourced from the West - this will act as a long-term brake on their economy

10. Big swing towards China

11. Difficulty in getting the attention of politicians for any length of time - tho it was admitted that just about everyone has other fish to fry


I have to say I was extremely impressed by Lt Gen Hodges - incisive, very sharp, intellectually robust and a million miles from the usual idea of a US SO. I only wish I thought we had people that good in the UK ....

[AreOut]

If Trump is elected we won't have to worry about. He'll give them whatever they want in exchange for some prime real-estate in Moscow. Why do you think they have been working with wiki leaks to smear Clinton? She and Putin really don't like each other. Trump regularly expresses his admiration for Putin.
wow, conspiracy much?! Putin (and Russians in general) love Trump because he doesn't threaten them with war like HRC does, it's that simple.

If you think that poking a nuclear power every now and then is smart strategy then go vote for her, but don't accuse Trump if SHTF.

[ricardian]

Here's the cause of the sound I heard overhead a few hours ago.

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/14572368_10157670764115046_7525656468294841098_n.jpg?oh=cbbe fd88f5a8b031fa0d8b769fb58224&oe=58A3630B

[Fonsini]

Perhaps we could get one of the morons who authorised the 1999 bombing of Belgrade to start posting on here, because all this Russian silliness stems directly from our actions in the former Yugoslavia. It was breathtaking stupidity that failed to take account of how the Russians would view such action in the territory of a former ally.

[racedo]

Mrs H dragged me to the Cheltenham LitFest last week

There was a really good panel discussion between a Russian lady who specialised in oil, two UK Kremlin watchers and the moderator - who was Lt-Gen. Ben Hodges, Commander US Army Europe.

They pretty much agreed on the following:-

1. Russia is in a state of "mobilisation" to recover economically and militarily the lost ground (not actual acreage!) from 1988-2005

2. We are always surprised by being surprised by events involving Russia

3. They are using Syria etc as a test ground for people, tactics and kit

4. There is a major push inside Russia to bring on younger, brighter people

5. the Russians reckon that whoever wins the election in the USA means a tougher time ahead - so there is a short window of political (rather than military) opportunity - maybe to cement in Assad etc

6. Mr Putin is important but definitely not all-powerful

7. Militarily the Baltic States are not a very serious concern after recent changes - we should worry about the Black Sea & Caucasus - Romania and especially Turkey

8. Break even for Russian oil is nowhere near the $80 a bbl quoted in the Western Press - it's more like $ 30 in fact

9. Sanctions are important politically rather than economically but they are forcing the Russians to look at alternative sources for ANY critical kit currently sourced from the West - this will act as a long-term brake on their economy

10. Big swing towards China

11. Difficulty in getting the attention of politicians for any length of time - tho it was admitted that just about everyone has other fish to fry


I have to say I was extremely impressed by Lt Gen Hodges - incisive, very sharp, intellectually robust and a million miles from the usual idea of a US SO. I only wish I thought we had people that good in the UK ....

:ok:

Thanks for the decent synopsis.

I don't worry about Russia because quite simply it knows the cost of a war.
Every child in school knows of WW2 and the cost of it in Russian blood.
Doubtful in US that many kids know of WW2.

US Gen seems to know what he is on about great credit to him but US politicians and chickenhwaks who ran from Vietnam service want a war to make them rich. Its not their kids who will die so what do they care.

[racedo]

Perhaps we could get one of the morons who authorised the 1999 bombing of Belgrade to start posting on here, because all this Russian silliness stems directly from our actions in the former Yugoslavia. It was breathtaking stupidity that failed to take account of how the Russians would view such action in the territory of a former ally.

Bush 1 claiming NATO will not allow former Warsaw pact become members was taken on trust by Moscow, they became members and when Moscow highlighted it they told it wasn't a treaty or legal statement just a statement by a President.
Therefore you just told someone not to rely on the word of US President as next administration not obligated to honour his words...................

[A_Van]

HH,

A very nice post, thanks. I once attended a conference where Lt-Gen Hodges was among keynote speakers and I agree with your characteristic. Also rather agree on all items except for 4 (younger, brighter people). Yes, of course, "all the king's men" here are now much younger than old Kremlin marasmatics in the Soviet era. But most of them are bad professionals, prone to corruption, etc. They jump from one chair to another in parliament, government, other administrations, but with no visible results.


Racedo,

Absolutely right. I would also add Kohl whom stupid Gorby and then drunked Yeltsin trusted totally.

But the main point to change the course in Russia was bombing of Yugoslavia. With the help of bombs and missiles a good piece of territory was given to criminal elements and then named as an independent state (of Kosovo). All sides of conflict were to blame for war crimes, but absolute majority of those who were toughly sentenced were from one side, the Serbians. After that only idiots would keep believing that you are safe just because some western leaders are currently kind to you. They are rotating every 4-5-6 years and no guarantee that the next guy would not order "let's take them away, too".

[SASless]

Racedo,

Every four years we have a Presidential Election, and every two Years we have Congressional Elections.

The UK changes government by a different manner but you do change as well.

Is it a surprise to you that Foreign Policy alters with various Governments?

Is your Parliament and Prime Minister bound by previous decisions of predecessors or do they feel quite free to change course when they see it the thing to do?

Unless it was a Treaty or International Accord that gave some permanence to the Terms and Conditions....how can the President or Prime Minister be criticized if they take different paths than their predecessors?


Another quick question....this article says the Russians are challenging the Americans by steaming Naval Units through the English Channel.

Can you explain why it is the Americans being challenged and not the British, French, and other NATO nations?

Do we even homeport a Warship in any NATO nation?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2013780/royal-navy-pledges-to-man-mark-vladimir-putins-navy-as-russians-begin-ten-ship-pincer-move-on-the-english-channel/

[racedo]

Every four years we have a Presidential Election, and every two Years we have Congressional Elections.

The UK changes government by a different manner but you do change as well.

Is it a surprise to you that Foreign Policy alters with various Governments?
Govt policy can change at will BUT if your leader commits your country to something then either someone else can rely on their word or your country is just dishonestly making commitments knowing it can break them and blame someone else.

Native Americans used to this in 19th century.

Either your countrys word means something or it doesn't.


Is your Parliament and Prime Minister bound by previous decisions of predecessors or do they feel quite free to change course when they see it the thing to do?

Unless it was a Treaty or International Accord that gave some permanence to the Terms and Conditions....how can the President or Prime Minister be criticized if they take different paths than their predecessors?



IT is not different paths that is they issue it is showing predecessor's word being useless that will undo. After all why would a word leader trust Potus on anything when ne/xt Potus will just change it. In Phillipines case would they trust China or US

Another quick question....this article says the Russians are challenging the Americans by steaming Naval Units through the English Channel.

Can you explain why it is the Americans being challenged and not the British, French, and other NATO nations?

Do we even homeport a Warship in any NATO nation?

WIkileaks tells us media just another arm of Government and not that bright.

[Lonewolf_50]

@SASless:
The US Sixth Fleet still has its flagship in Gaeta (http://www.c6f.navy.mil/ships/uss-mount-whitney), Italy.


@racedo:
WIkileaks tells us media just another arm of Government and not that bright. If you bought the soap Assange is selling, that's fine, but to pretend that he is a purveyor of Truth is another matter. The American government officials do what they can to influence (and sometimes fool) the media, but to pretend that it is an arm of the US government is profoundly false. (Some news organs are more easily coopted than others, to be sure ...)


I realize that you have a few axes to grind (I suppose we all do) but talking out of your backside does not strengthen your case.

[racedo]

If you bought the soap Assange is selling, that's fine, but to pretend that he is a purveyor of Truth is another matter. The American government officials do what they can to influence (and sometimes fool) the media, but to pretend that it is an arm of the US government is profoundly false. (Some news organs are more easily coopted than others, to be sure ...)


Nobody has as of yet shown that what Assange has published is a lie................. don't think it is.

However we have had Bild in Germany have its editorials dictated by Central Government for decades, they openly admitted that.

UK Media has always been a tool of Government................ hell even some of senior Journos were outed as part of Intelligence network.

US media virtually ignoring a candidate's negatives and blanking anything negative posted against them is not a good democracy.

Wikileaks wouldn't need to exist if media did their job, instead Media cower for political favours and refuse to ask Politicians in power any questions.

[Lonewolf_50]

US media virtually ignoring a candidate's negatives and blanking anything negative posted against them is not a good democracy.

Pure horsecrap. You obviously do not read the American media. I am exposed to it on a daily basis. (It's awful for other reasons, but for "not criticizing candidates" you completely miss the mark).


I restate for your edification: no, the US Media is NOT an arm of the US government. (That said, it's got its share of issues that annoy the hell out of me).


I don't disagree with you that what Assange did with Wikileaks was of interest, whatever I think of his motives. It's a manifestation of both the information age, how utterly incompetent some people in my government are in information security, and how easily exploited twits like Manning are. That isn't new, though, the exploitation of minor members of opposing sides was rampant during the Cold War. It's part of the game.

[racedo]

Pure horsecrap. You obviously do not read the American media. I am exposed to it on a daily basis. (It's awful for other reasons, but for "not criticizing candidates" you completely miss the mark).

I restate for your edification: no, the US Media is NOT an arm of the US government. (That said, it's got its share of issues that annoy the hell out of me).


During GW2 any reporter who didn't toe the line got moved on very rapidly.

US Media sold its sole to the establishment and refuse to question anybody who says the things they want to hear while demonising anybody with values they hate.

When a Government or Party of whatever political hue have co opted the media so much then it then becomes just another arm of the Government.

[Bevo]

During GW2 any reporter who didn't toe the line got moved on very rapidly.

US Media sold its sole to the establishment and refuse to question anybody who says the things they want to hear while demonising anybody with values they hate.

When a Government or Party of whatever political hue have co opted the media so much then it then becomes just another arm of the Government.

And you base your statements on what??

A very good friend has a daughter who was an Associated Press reporter who was “embedded” with the US Army during the second gulf war. I have talked to her on several occasions and I can assure you that there were no “political” limitations on her reporting. In fact several AP reporters posed critical questions at the military briefings and were never limited on what they reported from the fighting they observed.

[glad rag]

Really. How Captain America indeed.

[Lonewolf_50]

When a Government or Party of whatever political hue have co opted the media so much then it then becomes just another arm of the Government. Not in the actual world. I am not sure how things work in the world that you live on. The press is adversarial, in general, although some reporters are better at cultivating sources and relationships than others. (The are all desperate to fill air time and pages in this 24/7 breathless news world.) Some government officials are better than others in their attempts to manipulate the media, but most aren't very good at it.


By the way: embedding isn't the only way to cover a war, but it's a good one. Suggest you read Bob Galloway's book. The "press conference" media who showed up every day for BGen Brooks' briefings got about what they asked for, and in one case I recall General Abizhaid getting rather hot under the collar at an Al Jazeerah reporter over something they were reporting that he found objectionable. (I'd need to see a repeat of that conference to recall the detail. Abizhaid was deputy CENTCOM at the time).

In the current world, the information stream is part of the battlefield, in depth. Been true since the Viet Nam war, is more true now that so much info transits the globe. The military is right to try and influence the media where they can: as I said, it's part of the battlefield. Welcome to 4th Generation warfare.

The fights ongoing are in a similar genre: they are not, and will never be, your grandfathers war.