Passenger Loads? Are they back to pre 9/11

[sloany]

Hi,

What is the general consensus on passenger loads at the moment? Are they back to the pre September 11th levels or are there still a lot of empty seats?
I travelled out to Faro on Go and there were about 20 empty seats, compared to a flight to Calgary at christmas where there where only 50 people on a 777!

It would be great to have a view across all airlines if possible (long haul vs short haul).

Many Thanks

Sloany.

[Gaston777]

hey there
Looks like I'm the first one to answer this...
As far as long haul for Air France is concerned, levels are back to pre 9-11 status: mostly above 80%
Very often we are completly packed, making it very hard again for company pax to fly.
I also remember flying back from JFK with 60pax in the 777 just after the attacks.
Fortunatly atlantic flights only account for about 16% of our total revenue, so we were less affected than BA for example
see you
Jeff

[Splat]

As a pax, I've taken numerous flights since Sept 11th, mainly to New York and the med.

New youk flights on BA have been 100% full on all occasions.

On the 3 return trips to the med I've had, including a midweek Feb trip, I'd say there where as many free seats on ALL the flighs put together as fingers on my hands.

S

[Semaphore Sam]

Loads may be back up, but how many of those parked aircraft are back flying? I know the numbers of flights per sector (say, IAD-TPA) are still down. On the overall, how many of those cancelled flights are back on schedule? Both loads, and flight numbers, signify. Any info?

[FlyingForFun]

It's probably also worth asking how many of these seats are sold at vastly discounted prices, thereby increasing the nmber of pax but decreasing the profit.

FFF
-----------

[newswatcher]

From the BBC:

"British Airways has announced a big drop in passenger traffic in June, and said the outlook for the market remained "soft".
The airline blamed disruption in air traffic control, along with the Golden Jubilee, the World Cup and "falling confidence in financial markets", had contributed to the fall in numbers.

June traffic, measured in the number of kilometres flown per paying customer, fell 13.1% compared with a year before.

The airline carried 3.3 million passengers last month, down 12.2% compared with last year, but higher than May's total of 3.1 million.

But BA said it hoped to reap benefits from cut prices fares revealed last month in a bid to win business back from no-frills carriers.

"In UK/Europe, seat factors are expected to benefit from the further roll-out of new fare structures through the summer," BA said.

BA's European short haul services have been hit hard by competition from low cost airlines such as Ryanair and Easyjet - as well as the post-11 September slump in passenger numbers.

[sloany]

Thanks Guys,

Jeff it was interesting to see that Air France are back to norm, and with the aid of discount fairs as FFF correctly commented then things seem to be looking a lot better for the flying industry.

It would be good to know about the routes which have been side lined, I doubt we will see some of them back due to the fact they were loss making. As for the aircraft in the desert if things keep picking up then some of them will have to come back especially with the lead times involved in getting new aircraft.

Thanks again for your replies.

Sloany

[Fokker-Jock]

Honestly!

Speaking only for my own company, although we have managed to fill our airplanes up again, still doesn't mean we are flying the same amount of pax as before 11/9. Reason being we don't have the same frequency anymore resulting from various effectiveness measures. We still have aircraft parked, and in order to make them fly again on routes that after 11/9 became unprofitable various measures will be taken in order to reduce administration to a minimum in order to make the overhead-cost less, thereby making the routes profitable again.

Is it like this in other European companies as well or is it just that all your airplanes are full as a consequense of reduced frequency ?

[Splat]

bodstrup

What's that got to do with the original question?

S

[Splat]

bodstrup,

"Now - were you looking for an answer or was it a burst of arrogance ?"

Not at all arrogance.

I just did not understand where your answer was going with respect to the original subject - still don't.

S

[Doors to Automatic]

Sloany

I run an aviation consulting company specialising in developing new routes. As such we have our ear very close to the ground on these issues.

Things are getting back to normal as the memory of the dreadful day last September slips further back into history. Intra European passenger loads were the first to recover followed by Trans-Atlantic traffic. In the USA by March 2002 the top performing airports were reporting the first year-on-year positive growth rates and all in all 2002 is expected to be on an even keel or slightly up on 2001 in most markets. The recovery is expected to continue in 2003.

Of course passenger numbers are only part of the story - in order to fill empty seats airlines have been forced to discount fares. This has been true across most markets. As such, average yields have fallen sharply. These should also start to recover but it is anticipated that this recovery will be much slower than that of passenger loads.

[newswatcher]

From the BBC(11/7):

Virgin Atlantic Airways is poised to announce that it is restoring more UK-US flights which were axed after the 11 September terror strikes, a report said. The move by the carrier, controlled by entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson, eases some of the gloom which has surrounded the longhaul travel market since the attacks.

Airports operator BAA on Wednesday revealed that it carried 10% fewer transatlantic passengers last month than in June 2001. And it represents a further fillip for Sir Richard's airline interests, coming the day after Virgin Express, 59% owned by his Virgin Group Investments company, said it planned to open a base at Cologne-Bonn airport.

Virgin Atlantic will this autumn reinstate a fifth daily Heathrow-New York service, with a second daily service to Washington planned for next summer, the Financial Times said.

The number of flights from Gatwick and Manchester to Orlando will rise in a year's time from 20 a week to 24, the newspaper added.

The additions will help the firm recover by next summer its pre-11 September capacity, the carrier said, and will be viewed as the latest of a series of signals that Virgin Atlantic is recovering from last travel slump quicker than rival British Airways.

While BA last week said it was not budgeting for increased revenues in coming months, Virgin Atlantic put in a sufficiently strong recovery to post an underlying profit in the first three months of the year.

Virgin Atlantic, which lost £90m overall in the year to April, is hoping for a significantly improved performance this year, chief financial officer Julie Southern told the FT.

"It will be a long haul back," she said. "We are driving to return to profitability this year, but it is still uncertain."

The carrier has credited its recovery to its focus on leisure, rather than business, travellers.

Virgin Atlantic cut capacity by about 20% following the 11 September strikes, and slashed fares in a bid to bolster passenger numbers."

[Gaston777]

hey bodstrup

Sorry if your flight on Air France was uncomfortable !
I dont travel a lot outside of work, and I have never tested econmy class in the 777 so cant help you there.
As far as the aircraft itself, are you sure Delta was flying a 777 or a smaller 767 ? Our 767 also have 2 2 2 seating, and I am pretty sure a lot of companies use the 2 3 2 config for their business class. I know it's a big problem for pax though, not very convenient.

As far as Air France is concerned, loading is ok, and we did not cancel a lot of lines (well we did after 9-11, but they are reopened now). We are actually buying more airplane now, with some more due in 2004

See you