P8 procurement

[PFMG]

So, following on from the momentous decision taken by the UK voting public on Thursday I offer up a few questions to ponder over:

Did MoD set the purchase price of the P8 at the time of the decision to make the procurement based on the dollar exchange rate at that time, or has the deal just become quite a bit more expensive.

With a projected dip in GDP over the short/medium term at least, is it now unaffordable or liable to be delayed/cancelled.

With the spectre of another Scottish referendum (and as far as I'm aware not a single turf has been cut at Lossiemouth yet) is the basing decision likely to the subject of a review.

[MPN11]

I fear you have just highlighted on of the hundreds of uncertainties that will exist for the next decade, and the simple answer would be "we don't know" :)

[99 Change Hands]

Can we have it in service before we get our fishing waters back too?

[milosbanshee]

don't forget the Scots will need those P8s to protect THEIR fishing grounds and THEIR oil platforms........

[tucumseh]

When it comes to contract pricing "Firm is Fixed, and Fixed is Variable".

[Evalu8ter]

Most major companies "hedge" currencies for such volatility - it's one of the excuses used by energy companies to explain why the retail price doesn't match the current wholesale price. I recall once in DE&S an urge to buy a large number of dollars as the ForEx was extremely favourable - I think we were prohibited from doing so. About a year later my PTL was in the queue outside a VSO's office with a price for some aircraft parts that had climbed by a couple of £100K due to currency fluctuations. When asked how it went he said "easy, the poor bas*ard in front of me was trying to explain the multi-£M spike in his Business Case to buy 4 LRIP F-35s.......". Yes, currency can have an effect.....

[Out Of Trim]

What is an LRIP F-35?

Is it the life-size plastic model?

[PhilipG]

LRIP Low Rate Initial Production, (development/test aircraft, that will need updating before IOC or FOC)

[thunderbird7]

PFMG - you looking for a free ticket home? ;)

Base them at St Mawgan - time for some reserve flying :)

Never mind the P8 - its screwed my allowance rate in the US!!

[melmothtw]

I have no idea what that German word meant and can't be arsed even looking it up. If you do not like the UK and its people, and clearly you don't, then why not sod off where you feel more at home.

I'd say that's about the level of the Brexit argument. I was pleased for Farage that he's 'got his country back'. I feel as though I've lost mine.

On the subject of the P-8, I was told that Fallon was to make the contract announcement the Thursday before last, and when he didn't that it was being held for Farnborough. Whether or not that now happens (along with the AH-64E contract, Protector UAV contract, further F-35 contracts, etc..) is anybody's guess, though none of that seems all that important anymore, IMHO.

Interesting times indeed.

[salad-dodger]

Whether or not that now happens (along with the AH-64E contract, Protector UAV contract, further F-35 contracts, etc..) is anybody's guess, though none of that seems all that important anymore, IMHO.
Why? Go on, please explain why the UK's military requirements have suddenly changed. Or do you want to carry on spouting more drivel?

S-D

[melmothtw]

Why? Go on, please explain why the UK's military requirements have suddenly changed. Or do you want to carry on spouting more drivel?

Which part - the contracts maybe not being announced, or it no longer mattering?

If the former, it is because platforms such as the P-8, F-35, Protector, AH-64E etc, are procured in dollars, and with the pound taking a tumble it is doubtful that the SDSR is still affordable (if it ever was). Also, the planning assumptions contained within the review are now up in the air - there might not even be a UK for long, after this.

If the latter, that was more of a personal sentiment - I find it hard to care too much about such matters right now, given the magnitude of what's just happened.

Or do you want to carry on spouting more drivel?

Why the hostility? You won, didn't you?

[Sandy Parts]

Any chance we could just stick to P8 matters in this thread as per the title. While the politics may/may not affect the contract/basing etc, endlessly repeating the same arguments on here will change that not one jot. I'm sure there must be another thread for "we wuz robbed / we are saved" referendum stuff?

[Heathrow Harry]

The issue is that the economic future has changed dramtically - right now no-one knows by how much or in which direction and we probably won't be certain for 3-4 years

What we DO know is that the £-$ exchange rate has gone south significantly - this obviuosly impacts on what we can buy from the USA - unless Mr Boeing is willing to bet that the £ will be back at $ 1.50 when it comes to delivery......................

[CoffmanStarter]

Here is the view of the RAeS ... See the 'Military Outlook' part of the article.

Royal Aeronautical Society | Insight Blog | Brexit - UK takes off for a unknown destination (http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/4503/Brexit-UK-takes-off-for-a-unknown-destination)

[PFMG]

Thanks for all the contributions. In between the soul searching, blame and general re-run of last Thurday's events some replies actually discussed the issues I raised. I suppose the former is only to be expected and certainly every crew room I've been in since Friday is a lot more politically charged than ever before.

With respect to basing options either:

The MoD will continue with Lossie hoping that the investment will be yet another reason for Wee Jimmy Crankie to fail in her latest attempt to break up the UK

Or it will not call her bluff and risk having to move the infrastructure down south in a couple of years and so opt for a less risky option (Waddo)

The lack of tangible P8 prep (sim building, Sqn accom, etc) is somewhat worrying and gives raise to doubt that the Govt is fully committed.

[salad-dodger]

Brilliant!

[chopper2004]

Thanks for all the contributions. In between the soul searching, blame and general re-run of last Thurday's events some replies actually discussed the issues I raised. I suppose the former is only to be expected and certainly every crew room I've been in since Friday is a lot more politically charged than ever before.

With respect to basing options either:

The MoD will continue with Lossie hoping that the investment will be yet another reason for Wee Jimmy Crankie to fail in her latest attempt to break up the UK

Or it will not call her bluff and risk having to move the infrastructure down south in a couple of years and so opt for a less risky option (Waddo)

The lack of tangible P8 prep (sim building, Sqn accom, etc) is somewhat worrying and gives raise to doubt that the Govt is fully committed.
If in doubt, wonder if Waddo could accomodate the Poseidon fleet plus support or at least provide the support, sim, etc seemingly as Boeing and AAR et al are at Waddo already in support of Sentry and Airseeker?

cheers

[Ken Scott]

Alternatively Newquay Airport is rather underused, I believe that Cornwall Council is struggling with the funding of it, there's plenty of space at the RAF St Mawgan part the MOD still owns, so how about a shared mil/ civil basing solution?

[The Old Fat One]

Following the reasonable appeals to stay on topic, this article may have more pertinence:

No Type 26 frigate deal unless it is 'value for money' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-36645486)

It seems to me to be to soon to be making any "brexit adjustments" to budgetary spend at the moment (in regard of defence, or anythng else) but clearly everything is on table and in play in these troubled times.

How far are we down the line with the P8 contract...have we reached a stage where pulling out would cost us penalty payments?

[peter we]

The pound is predicted to fall significantly. No dollar denominated deals will be signed and the affordability of existing plans will have to be investigated.

have we reached a stage where pulling out would cost us penalty payments?

Nope. Even if there were penalty payments it wouldn't matter.

[Buster Hyman]

Maybe a picture will keep this on topic. :p It looks rather fetching with that Roundel IMHO. :ok:

http://australianaviation.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/RAAF_P8-2.jpg

Oh...does anyone know what the 'bulge' on the engine nacelle is for? (it's on both engines)

[A and C]

The cowling bulge is ,in the location on the civil aircraft that houses the IDG, I would guess that the P8 has a much bigger requirement for electrical power and therefore requires a bigger IDG and the cowling bulge just accommodates this.

[Ken Scott]

The Type 26 buy would be money spent within the UK (at least for the moment....) whereas P8 is spent overseas involving exchange rates so is more likely to be at risk.

TOFO does raise a significant point though - should the MOD even consider placing a Frigate order in Scotland when that country is considering independence and is it too late for the yards at Portsmouth to bid for the contract?

[RAF_Techie101]

And yes, the P-8 has larger generators, hence the bulges.

[BBadanov]

Buster - nice pic of our first of 15.
Note also how the upper quarter window has been deleted from the 800-series.

I hope you keep your order, and we can keep Fincastle alive.
Now, back to P-8 procurement !!!

[BEagle]

The P-8 has twice the electrical generating capacity of the basic aeroplane, which has required redesign of both nacelle and mounting structure.

I do hope that the UK will still be able to afford the P-8, now that the pound has fallen to its lowest value against the US dollar since 1985.

I note that there's a meeting of major airlines today in Europe; although the main reason is to identify ways of reducing the revenue impact which the French cause by their ATC strikes (they're having another one today..), no doubt the effects of financial uncertainty and exchange rates will also be discussed....

[NutLoose]

The Type 26 buy would be money spent within the UK (at least for the moment....) whereas P8 is spent overseas involving exchange rates so is more likely to be at risk.

TOFO does raise a significant point though - should the MOD even consider placing a Frigate order in Scotland when that country is considering independence and is it too late for the yards at Portsmouth to bid for the contract? It's a pretty big leverage point to the possible Scottish split from the UK in losing the contract and the revenue it produces, it also would make the Scottish claims on part of the Military less attractive at the split, after all, the wicked witch couldn't try to claim them for Scotland or factor them into the equation if they haven't been built.


..

[Buster Hyman]

The cowling bulge is ,in the location on the civil aircraft that houses the IDG, I would guess that the P8 has a much bigger requirement for electrical power and therefore requires a bigger IDG and the cowling bulge just accommodates this.
Thank you, and BBadanov

[Heathrow Harry]

I can't see the Govt (who they?) ordering anything for the rest of this year - if we assume a new Tory leader and Cabinet in October that will probably mean an autumn budget

The Type 26's and the P8 will be defered until we can see where the hell the economy is headed. And Successor is an obvious target for cost savings

[Sideshow Bob]

as Boeing and AAR et al are at Waddo
No Boeing here, Northrop Grumman yes Boeing no, they lost the Design Organisation tag for Sentry some time ago.

[Bannock]

The UK's plans to buy the Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft is one of a number of short- to near-term procurement decisions that now may have to be delayed or even cancelled following the country's decision to leave the European Union. Source: US Navy

http://www.janes.com/article/61810/analysis-eu-exit-uncertainties-to-cast-shadow-over-farnborough-airshow

[Heathrow Harry]

Anyway it'll be a damn shame if having spent years arguing we need some sort of marine capability and getting the nod it all goes west again because of the referendum..........

you start to wonder if it is possible to acquire anything within the current speed of political/economic cycles

[retrosgone]

The major problem up here for Scots wishing to keep the UK together, is that at the time of the Independence Referendum the EU and the UK Government put out the same message, namely - the only way for Scotland to stay in the EU would be to vote No to independence. That position swayed a lot of people worried about the possible economic consequences.

Last Thursday, what all the politicians thought unthinkable happened, and now the consequence of having voted No is that we are being dragged out of the EU anyway. You could hardly make it up!

If Indyref2 should come along, the only thing that will stop a Yes vote will be the prospect of continuing low to zero revenue from the North Sea, and the colossal current account deficit Scotland would therefore face. Mind you, the likelihood of a completely buggered up economy didn't stop England and Wales voting for "Independence" from Europe.

Much as I would like to see them, I wouldn't hold your breath about P8 being seen on the Moray Firth any time soon, and the Government wont decide on anything at all (P8, HS2, Heathrow runway) until they sort out the developing chaos.

[ORAC]

P8 I am unsure about, Heathrow R3 is dead if Boris gets to be PM. HS2 is a puzzle, if a recession is on the cards they will want to pump funds into infrastructure, particularly in the north where the major voters for Leave complained about being left behind.

I could see HS3 being promoted and HS2 starting from the northern end as a compromise measure, and Boris island being resurrected again.......

[Quick Brown Fox]

Judging by discussions in Defence Questions on BBC Parliament on Monday, P-8 procurement is at risk and if it does go ahead the basing decision (Lossiemouth) is certain to be revisited (ie changed)

[QTRZulu]

Retro,

As ex-military and still (just) an oil and gas worker, I can say that revenue from the North Sea will be subdued for many more years to come. All the industry experts and insiders are all saying so, and the imminent laying off of another 1000+ where I work all point to this, so it must be true. The SNP dodged a bullet when the vote went against them although they will never admit it publicly.

As for IndyRef2, I work with guys who are long standing SNP die-hards and they do not want another referendum anytime soon (although they still want independence). The trouble with the current situation is that support for the SNP and in particular their party membership rocketed from around 20K to 120K+ active members around the last referendum. It is unfortunate that the new 100K+ are all fanatical about independence and they will ultimately force the party into another referendum whether Sturgeon et al are ready for it or not. They have a party conference planned for this Autumn, so I would expect an announcement around then as their hand will be forced by a fervent party membership that is baying for any opportunity to rid itself of the shackles of Westminster irrespective of the consequences.

[NutLoose]

As to the P8 being at risk, if contracts are signed, surely it would have clauses in it that would cost the UK a fortune to withdraw from it.

[ORAC]

The Sunday Times 10th July (behind firewall):

David Cameron is set to hand multibillion-pound deals to build maritime patrol aircraft and overhaul Apache attack helicopters to the American aerospace giant Boeing. The prime minister is expected to sign the contracts at the Farnborough International Airshow tomorrow. The US goliath will supply nine P-8 aircraft, which detect submarines, and overhaul 50 Apaches on its production line in Arizona.

The decision to hand the Apache deal to America will fuel concerns about the future of Britain’s only helicopter manufacturer, in Yeovil, Somerset. Cameron will try to ease those fears by handing the former Westlands plant, now owned by Italy’s Leonardo, a contract worth a few million pounds to begin developing a drone helicopter for the armed forces. It could be extended into a far more lucrative deal to design and build the drones.

The government will also indicate that Westlands could play a role in maintaining Britain’s upgraded Apaches.........

[Lyneham Lad]

Apropos the ST article - the usual in-depth research into the background to the orders is in evidence - the article is illustrated by a photo of a Sabena 747...

[engineer(retard)]

It seems that there has been an announcement:

Boeing and UK sign aircraft and investment deal - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36763212)

[BEagle]

In addition to buying the aircraft, Boeing will invest about £100m in an operational support and training base at RAF Lossiemouth, in Scotland, creating more than 100 new jobs.

That should keep 'Gnasher' happy!

[Cazalet33]

£3Bn for 9? £333Mn, plus cost overruns, apiece.

Nice.

Couldn't we have ordered these things a decade ago? It's not as if an island nation, sixth richest in the world, doesn't need a MPA capability, is it?

[Arclite01]

Actually we are a maritime nation.

We have a requirement for Merchant ships, Warships, MPA, SAR, Martime Strike, Coastal Patrols, Power projection, convoy escort et al...............

All the things we no longer invest in.

I only hope we never have to run a cross-Atlantic convoy system like our predecessors had to (twice in the last hundred years), or guarantee the security of our Merchant Fleet like our predecessors had to in the past (and now).

Our lack of foresight and capability in these key areas continues to baffle me. And like most capabilities - once it's gone - it's gone................ always too expensive to re-instate it.

Arc

[MSOCS]

Arc, the past guides us. We are not wedded to it, lest we all be fools.

[Arclite01]

Agreed

but as a Maritime Nation, with huge Maritime interests we'd be fools not to be able to protect them surely..................

Arc

[MSOCS]

We've invested a huge amount in the QEC carriers and all the aircraft that go into Carrier Strike. That's power projection. Not at the scale of WWII but incredibly potent and mobile nonetheless. We also have (and will likely retain) the Continuous At Sea Deterrent. That in itself displaces the similarity between our Navy in times gone by and what it is today. We have T45 - an amazing capability (engines aside - yup, go fix it quick).

Forgive me if I don't share your doom and gloom, considering the world we now live in.

[ORAC]

That was in the days of course when we had a merchant marine fleet to form into convoys and escort. I doubt the Chinese and other ships would either need or accept our limited attempts at protection.

Thehttp://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20100513020716/http://www.dft.gov.uk/about/strategy/whitepapers/previous/coll_britishshippingchartinganew/dft_shipping_505251-1.gif

[CoffmanStarter]

Interesting video of a quick walk through of the P-8A Mission Suite ...

https://amp.twimg.com/v/0231fd11-8db2-40e6-8518-9a73ec154730

[Heathrow Harry]

well thank God for that

[Heathrow Harry]

"but as a Maritime Nation, with huge Maritime interests we'd be fools not to be able to protect them surely.................."

wellll

way back Jackie Fisher pulled most of the RN back to Europe to fight the Kaiser and we haven't had much of anything east of Suez since the late 60's

The idea that we can "protect" our Merchant marine world wide is a long gone idea

[ShotOne]

Relative to the threat we face, we have a massive capability, now stronger still after today's announcement; most nations with the ability to threaten world commerce have just as much to lose as us by doing so. But if you're looking for something to worry about, do we have a merchant marine to protect?

[Arclite01]

all great responses and exactly what I wanted.................:-)

Arc

[ExGrunt]

Much as it pains a former 'Gentleman in Khaki' the number 1, national survival, military task is the security of the seas around and sea lanes to and from the UK.

It surprises me that the current River class OPV doesn't have even a limited ASW capability (no embarked Helicopter or ASW weapons) so that it could be pressed into escort duty.

Separately, but related, in the new order we are going to have our own independent fisheries policy and have to police it. To do that will need a layered capability of MPA and patrol vessels.

One query I have is whether the maritime patrol task is not one suited to an all weather long endurance RPV? If you stopped dragging the crew around you could carry more fuel and mission stores n'est ce pas?

I am not so worried about merchant fleet tonnage as the drop in registered tonnage, in part, is just a reflection of the commercial benefits of regisitering what would in previous times have been a 'British' ship in cheaper overseas registers.

EG