Bristow stock is not doing too well either

[DonQuixote23]

Down 50% in a week and now around 11$.
Is this all due to the shaky stock market in general combined with the oil price, or what are the causes for it to drop like this?

[gulliBell]

9+% dividend yield, might be a good buy. Certainly much better return than the cash deposit rate.

[DonQuixote23]

I was tempted to buy at 20. Even more so now :)

[twisted wrench]

Bristow better be careful and not let it drop to much more or CHC will swoop in and buy them.

[Barney238]

I have been wondering why Bristow has not purchased parts of CHC yet in areas where they are not well established till now, but this situation may have turned the cards indeed. Purchasing the majority of Bristow stock by First Reserve would allow them to turn their unprofitable helicopter activities into the worlds biggest operator. It would be a fight forward out of their troublesome situation with CHC. They have the money to do it...

[RyRy]

Heard from a few people that Bristow was very close to buying off CHC Global a few years back. Long story short, CHC got greedy at the close and upped the price, and Bristow walked away from the deal.

[fadecdegraded]

When the price of crude drops below marginal production cost, (which varies between $65-75 per barrel for offshore) oil companies will shut down rigs, (it's called the utilization rate). When they shut down the rigs it reduces the demand for transport services.
It's that simple.
And your point is?????

[terminus mos]

Chris Pochari

There is huge lack of detail and analysis in your post.

Rigs are for Drilling. Drilling is normally exploration or development drilling. Some companies actually utilise the lower day rates to increase their drilling "rig" activity.

Not all MODUs can be turned off as many are on longer term contract. I can assure you, making decisions about production, exploration, rig utilisation etc. its not "that simple".

Many lifting costs are quite a bit below the figures you suggest which is why production continues. But when it gets close, oil companies look for savings, often from contractors which hurts everyone including helicopter companies and their share price.

[Kulwin Park]

Bristow stock price for the last 5 years, with the start of 2015 as a downward trend. Unsure why?

2452

PS - I can't seem to paste the picture bigger. maybe someone knows how to do this - clicking on it will enlarge

[Chris Pochari]

Chris Pochari

There is huge lack of detail and analysis in your post.

Rigs are for Drilling. Drilling is normally exploration or development drilling. Some companies actually utilise the lower day rates to increase their drilling "rig" activity.

Not all MODUs can be turned off as many are on longer term contract. I can assure you, making decisions about production, exploration, rig utilisation etc. its not "that simple".

Many lifting costs are quite a bit below the figures you suggest which is why production continues. But when it gets close, oil companies look for savings, often from contractors which hurts everyone including helicopter companies and their share price.

https://ibb.co/b535q5 Yes it is "that simple" it's not theoretical physics, if an oil company spends $70 per barrel extracting oil but the market rate is $40 it aint gonna work. A macro economics course will explain that. Offshore rig utilization is at all time low,
https://ibb.co/iAXn3Q Oil exploration and discover is also at an all time low, when the price is low companies will not commit the capital for new projects.

[Chris Pochari]

If you look at PHI's stock it basically correlates with the price of oil, confirming my opinion.

[212man]

https://ibb.co/b535q5 Yes it is "that simple" it's not theoretical physics, if an oil company spends $70 per barrel extracting oil but the market rate is $40 it aint gonna work. A macro economics course will explain that. Offshore rig utilization is at all time low,
https://ibb.co/iAXn3Q Oil exploration and discover is also at an all time low, when the price is low companies will not commit the capital for new projects.

Love it - the 17 year old telling the senior manager of an oil and gas company, who has been in the business in various roles for more than twice as long as you have been on earth, how his business works! Go for it.....

As was explained, the 'rigs' you are referencing are used for exploration and have nothing to do with production. However, when they are used to explore new fields the success rates are eye wateringly low and so any exploration campaign represents a huge financial gamble. Even when successful the time to production is measured in years and, for very extreme parts of the world, even decades. Take Prelude as an example.

Cutting exploration during a low oil price environment is a quick and easy way to cut overall costs, but it cannot be sustained as reserves have to be replenished at some point. In fact, as was pointed out, the low rig costs actually present an opportunity to go exploring basins that previously were considered too expensive and I know, for a fact, that some companies are discussing basins that 18 months ago would have been dismissed out of hand.

The other side of the coin is that for large integrated energy companies, this low price environment means a boost to their downstream businesses as the cost of their raw product is proportionately lower than any reductions in the price of the products they sell. In many cases this side of the business is 'propping up' the company in this period.

So, no, as TM said; "it's not that simple"!

[terminus mos]

If you look at PHI's stock it basically correlates with the price of oil, confirming my opinion. PHI is not a typical example. It may be publicly traded but its privately controlled.

I am surprised that a helicopter company or oil and gas company hasn't already offered you a fast track career, you would be quite a catch with your deep industry insight and abilities with Google.

Bristow has just announced the removal of a whole layer of VP level senior management, perhaps there is an opening for you to help turn around their share price? Don't set your salary expectations too low, people with your industry experience and smarts are rare.

[Chris Pochari]

PHI is not a typical example. It may be publicly traded but its privately controlled.

I am surprised that a helicopter company or oil and gas company hasn't already offered you a fast track career, you would be quite a catch with your deep industry insight and abilities with Google.

Bristow has just announced the removal of a whole layer of VP level senior management, perhaps there is an opening for you to help turn around their share price? Don't set your salary expectations too low, people with your industry experience and smarts are rare.

You guys are so insecure. How does it bother you that a person who has born later than you takes an interest in the offshore helicopter industry? would you rather I don't?

[Chris Pochari]

why are you guys so concerned with my age?, I'm not telling you what to do regarding your oil company.

[Chris Pochari]

Love it - the 17 year old telling the senior manager of an oil and gas company, who has been in the business in various roles for more than twice as long as you have been on earth, how his business works! Go for it.....

As was explained, the 'rigs' you are referencing are used for exploration and have nothing to do with production. However, when they are used to explore new fields the success rates are eye wateringly low and so any exploration campaign represents a huge financial gamble. Even when successful the time to production is measured in years and, for very extreme parts of the world, even decades. Take Prelude as an example.

Cutting exploration during a low oil price environment is a quick and easy way to cut overall costs, but it cannot be sustained as reserves have to be replenished at some point. In fact, as was pointed out, the low rig costs actually present an opportunity to go exploring basins that previously were considered too expensive and I know, for a fact, that some companies are discussing basins that 18 months ago would have been dismissed out of hand.

The other side of the coin is that for large integrated energy companies, this low price environment means a boost to their downstream businesses as the cost of their raw product is proportionately lower than any reductions in the price of the products they sell. In many cases this side of the business is 'propping up' the company in this period.

So, no, as TM said; "it's not that simple"!

So I just went to control panel and clicked don't show my age now there won't be a problem. I get the feeling your teen years may have been interesting.

[finalchecksplease]

Chris,

Don't know what 212man's teen years were like but I've known him for the last 20 years. He has a lot of experience in the oil and gas world both as a pilot / instructor / examiner and in various management roles.
I hope if you choose a career in the helicopter world you might be able to achieve part of what he has achieved and you will have a great career!

At 17 I spend most of my time listening to others trying to learn as much as I could so I would be able to fly helicopters for a living one day. Maybe you should take a leaf out of my book rather than continuing on your current track and possibly upsetting people in the small world that professional helicopter flying is.

Cheers,

Finalchecksplease

[Chris Pochari]

Chris,

Don't know what 212man's teen years were like but I've known him for the last 20 years. He has a lot of experience in the oil and gas world both as a pilot / instructor / examiner and in various management roles.
I hope if you choose a career in the helicopter world you might be able to achieve part of what he has achieved and you will have a great career!

At 17 I spend most of my time listening to others trying to learn as much as I could so I would be able to fly helicopters for a living one day. Maybe you should take a leaf out of my book rather than continuing on your current track and possibly upsetting people in the small world that professional helicopter flying is.

Cheers,

Finalchecksplease

If by saying that low oil prices depress the offshore helicopter business is upsetting people than I can't help you there.

[Nigerian Expat Outlaw]

Chris,

212man and finalchecksplease have been in this game for a very long time and know a lot. I've known them for 27 and 20 years respectively.

Of all the items people put on their CVs, be it as pilots, engineers, VPs, Managers or whatever, the one thing that can't be learnt in a classroom or bought is experience.

For what it's worth my advice would be to simply accept that they know what they're talking about. Just my two penneth.

Cheers,

NEO

[212man]

So I just went to control panel and clicked don't show my age now there won't be a problem. I get the feeling your teen years may have been interesting.

Cool, good for you. BTW they were, as were my pre-teen and post-teen years. Good luck with your O&G gas career and I (we I guess) look forward to learning from your wisdom. Out of interest, did you actually register that some of the posters are employed by O&G majors?

[212man]

why are you guys so concerned with my age?, I'm not telling you what to do regarding your oil company.

Sorry, missed that bit. Because you are a ******* child, that's why!

[212man]

If by saying that low oil prices depress the offshore helicopter business is upsetting people than I can't help you there.

Have a chat with those being made redundant and discover what the word "upset" means.

[bigglesbutler]

Chris I think what people are getting at isn't the question nor the subject it is the perceived attitude coming across. Don't forget the vast majority of communication we as human beings use is body language and tone of voice, none of that here. One thing I certainly learnt the hard way was when typing, be it email or forum, err on the softer side so people don't read it the wrong way.

None of us can really tell you what to do, but when the names here give me a suggestion or advice I damn well take heed. Go through rotor heads a bit and you will see the same few names appear with good sage advice. I wish my teen/twenties had been half as interesting as some of theirs. It will also help you build your professional persona if you are indeed wanting to fly in their playground.

Good luck.

Si

[Chris Pochari]

Have a chat with those being made redundant and discover what the word "upset" means.
Being made redundant lol, no need to take it out on others. Instead of moaning why don't you look at my thread about electric cars and future oil being $25.
I wonder if you foresaw that being such an industry expert

[Um... lifting...]

Oh, Dear.

Chris, for someone with such a high opinion of himself and who owns so many books your reading comprehension doesn't appear to be too hot. Might want to bone up before you take (or retake, as the case may be) the SAT.

Reading your thread about electric cars (while no doubt fascinating, erudite, and full of pithy bon mots) would perhaps not bring as much comfort to people who are in financial distress due to the industry's economic downturn as you might imagine. But I'll suggest to Elon Musk and those good people in Munich who are reportedly working on electric cars that they move your thread right up on their reading list.

Many of us have seen previous industry downturns and have foreseen the possibility of changes in fossil fuel usage and have planned accordingly. Most international offshore helicopter pilots I know (and I daresay I know a thousand or so more than you do having been one myself) have hedged their bets over the years with other businesses, investments, savings, education & training, financial planning and the like. You might be surprised what you can learn over 1000 cups of coffee in global pilot lounges and the odd pint here and there given time.

Some haven't hedged their bets, but you don't know who those might be and you probably shouldn't presume that you do. At least not until you've held down a job, paid for your own training out of your own earnings or paid for the roof over your head. You lack perspective, experience, and humility. Start with the third of those and you might eventually gain the other two. Fail to embrace that third one and you won't even find the path to get you the other two. Right now I can assure you that you're started down the wrong road.

I was flying one of the aircraft you have posted on your FB page as a cover photo more than a decade before you were born. The very airframe is in my logbook, one of the 5 that I have filled. At that stage of my life I was far more educated, experienced and skilled than you are by about an order of magnitude and I haven't stopped becoming even more so. But even at that I knew and know enough to be aware that there was and is a great deal I do not yet know. I would not have presumed to tell professionals in an industry where I had not so much as a day of real experience how they ought to think. You have no such filter. Better get one.

Most pilots who have survived (both literally and figuratively) for years in helicopters are keenly aware of what they do not know and seek out those who know what they do not. That's why helicopter pilots tend to get along with one another. Almost all of us on this page know one another either from first-hand experience or by reputation via close personal friends and colleagues. That network is incredibly strong and largely self-policing and those of us who are part of it do not take it lightly nor for granted. You forget that at your peril.

[Chris Pochari]

"from the experts"
The economic threshold that the rotorcraft market uses to plan for demand in the offshore sector is about $65 per barrel — a price that’s now very far in the rear view mirror.

“If oil goes higher than $65 per barrel, large energy companies will boost exploration and production, which in turn hikes demand for helicopter transport and the acquisition of new aircraft,” Aboulafia pointed out. “Problem is, oil has remained well below that threshold price all during 2015.”
https://www.verticalmag.com/features/weathering-the-storm/
Hmm, confusing..............strange indeed.
Oil economics doesn't require a very high IQ to figure out, I thought heli pilots were smarter than that!
Guess that's why heli pilots don't go into management.
This book should help you
https://www.amazon.com/Crude-Volatility-History-Future-Boom-Bust/dp/023117814X/ref=sr_1_7?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1498976861&sr=1-7&keywords=oil+economics

[Saint Jack]

Chris, you wouldn't be related to "Shell Management" would you? (hint, the old timers will understand).

[obnoxio f*ckwit]

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/842/755/493.jpg

[Chris Pochari]

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/842/755/493.jpg
strong name. The stupidity level of this forum is too high, I'm going back to vertical reference, see ya later

[Evil Twin]

Just found a book in the bargain bin at the service station. "How to make friends and influence people" Author Chris Pochari. They were giving them away.....

When you're in a hole, stop digging.

[terminus mos]

You guys are so insecure. How does it bother you that a person who has born later than you takes an interest in the offshore helicopter industry? would you rather I don't?

If oil is going to be $25 and the future is electric, which it may well be eventually, why are you taking an interest in such a "dying" industry? Now, off you pop and squeeze your zits like a good boy.

[Chris Pochari]

Just found a book in the bargain bin at the service station. "How to make friends and influence people" Author Chris Pochari. They were giving them away.....

When you're in a hole, stop digging.
Hey it aint me who started this ruckus, just a bunch of old grouches with too much time on their hands

[Evil Twin]

Do you need a bigger shovel?

[Democritus]

Hey it aint me who started this ruckus, just a bunch of old grouches with too much time on their hands

Well here's another old grouch - thought you'd gone back to Vertical Reference, boy? Perhaps you missed the heading of this forum? It says: "Rotorheads. A haven for helicopter professionals to discuss the things that affect them." When you are a helicopter professional perhaps you might be qualified to post here. In the meantime do us all a favour and take your childish tantrums back to Vertical Reference.

[Nigerian Expat Outlaw]

Chris,

My post #22 was truly intended as friendly advice; please mate, you're way out of your depth. There are people on here who make me (with 32 years in the industry) realise how much I still have to learn; that's the whole point, I'll retire knowing that I don't know everything ! Nobody does.

All the best,

NEO

[nomorehelosforme]

Is Chris P for real, never heard so much rubbish

[Miles Gustaph]

Now I know that the Rotorheads forum can be a tad spirited and sporting but it has never been an uncaring place, ever.

Chris, you may or may-not be right in your claims but please remember that as a guest, yes a guest (The first P in PPRUNE stands for professional) in this forum reasonable standards of decency apply and first and foremost this means being tactful around subjects that involve people's employment and ability for support themselves and family.

There is a lot to learn here and boy are there people who will be happy to share but there are also admins that can ensure that this wealth of experience is locked out to those that do not wish to demonstrate basic levels of empathy to their fellow man.

So please do stay and make the most of the experience here, but equally please do be a little more tactful and considerate.