Bye Bye Emirates and Dubai....

[keepitrealok]

You all know Australia is the centre of the Aviation Universe, so now the partner will start the downfall of Emirates and Dubai.....:ok:

https://scontent-fra3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xft1/v/t1.0-9/11012752_1009249042448602_6544131987644013994_n.jpg?oh=d9f14 40cd19ae4947f1dc6a51e38a41d&oe=56436B08

[Ghost_Rider737]

Dude there ain't no OIL on the East Coast of OZ !!!

[north flyer]

There is no oil in Dubai either, but this is not about oil, never has been. The Emirates model is being attacked and from all sides.

Clark had it easy for the last 2 decades, now that he has to operate in the real world, with real regulation and competition, he is not doing well, nor is Emirates.

Time will tell.

[uba737]

The only place EK seems not to be doing well in is with us the employees! Flights are running full!

[glofish]

I beg to differ.

It is about oil, -- > cheap oil.
Put the price back up to ~ 100 or 120$ and Timbo will start squealing with his fleet.

[halas]

They are acquiring eight 787's.

Eight :confused:

How will that affect anyone?
Especially when they will phase out 5 744's?

halas

[north flyer]

Glofish,

Yea, you are right, it is about the price of oil, always has been and I guess always will.

But,

And this is what I should have said, you and I think like they do in the real world, where when the price of oil goes down it is a good thing for everyone, just look at the profits that all the airlines outside of the oil producing part of the world are making, billions, and not per year, per quarter.

The ME economies depend on it, it all they really have.

So, I guess what I am saying is that, everything in this part of the world is upside down, the reverse of the rest of the world, it is hard to think like that.

Emirates needs a high price of oil, the oil producing world needs it to keep the ball in the air, it is not about the cost of fuel to Emirates that is killing them, it is that the whole ME economies are in a tailspin.


The geo politics of oil is something that is so above my pay grade, all I know is that EK is not doing well with the price of oil down.

And the band played on.

[Metro man]

QF will be able at last to take on EK with its hub and spoke network. Major cities can now be paired one stop via Australia. Addis Ababa to Santiago, and Cape Town to Moscow via Sydney will open up a new era in air travel.

A brand new mega airport will need to be built for Sydney to be able to cope with the extra demand, initially six runways are planned with an annual capacity of 80 million passengers.

QF will be starting a massive recruitment and training program to cope with the capacity increase, PPL holders are encouraged to register their interest. Even with all the overseas Aussie pilots returning in droves a shortfall is predicted.

This is really the next mining boom.;)

[glofish]

NF:

There's the real conundrum. The UAE is heavily dependant on Abu Dhabi's financial strenght mainly based on oil revenue. Dubai is a subsidiary Emirate who wanted to escape that dependency, because of its oil fields drying out, the main pillars being its airline, the tourism industry and real estate. This backfired big time during the 2008 crisis. They avoided a complete sell out by the thinnest margin being able to retain control of its main asset EK. Today's strategy can be described as a all or nothing. TC's megalomania reflects HH's vision of a World air dominance via DWC and a killer megafleet of 380ies, strangling the competition. This depends on 1. Europe continuing to heavily subsidise the manufacturing of this very expensive hardware. 2. The oil price remaining low as this fleet is somewhat fuel greedy.
Abu Dhabi however is caught between its strategy of low oil price to fight the West on its strive to push expensive oil production for independence and the need of oil income due their need to subsidise the unproductive locals. The way it goes right now, according to some experts, gives the GCC states some 7 years to go broke. So prepare for a oil price hike around 2021. Then EK will turn terminally ill and will be taken over by the neighbours. They seem to adopt another strategy, to come back to the thread, the one QF seems to adopt as well. Smaller less greedy airframes with huge reach, more flexibility in route length and airport facilities.

[ExDubai]

The big isseu is, that Dubai has no sustainable business model. If the tourism sector starts to sour then the real estate business is also in trouble. The big question will be are the rulers of AD willing to step in again and what will be the prize for Dubai. The trouble in China will also effect the UAE and Dubai is def. weak because their business depends on foreign money. Another threat is the political development in the neighborhood, no doubt that you'll find also fundamentalistic idiots in the UAE.

I don't see the future of Dubai that bright as a lot of other people.