Direct rule from Scotland?

[ShotOne]

Has anyone considered the post-election defence implications of the quite likely event of a collapse in the Scottish Labour vote? The SNP have been fully upfront on their intention to pull any political levers at their disposal to achieve their aims. What will this mean for Milliband owing homage to Salmond? SNP would have an effective veto on key votes. Could this be the means of achieving their key pledge of removing Trident from Scotland?

[Evalu8ter]

Shot one,
Errr-yes......

Why do you think 'call me Dave' kept pressing '2 kitchens Mili-Bland' on this the other day? The SNP have hit a raw nerve with Trident in Labour's core vote; instinctively, they are unilateralist disarmers (and see the 'saved' cash being diverted straight to the NHS and Welfare) but are warned not to say so due to the the memories of Michael Foot's "suicide note" manifesto. Angus Robertson challenged Yvette Cooper on this issue on R4 the other day saying that 75% of Labour voters wanted to scrap Trident and all they were doing by making it a pre-pact red line was keeping the Labour leadership honest. Nicely done it was too.....prepare to see little Mili-Bland in Salmonds pocket on every street corner soon....

Time to hibernate till it's all over.......

[Heathrow Harry]

Over the years the Labour leaders have supported the deterrent - Atlee started the bomb programme when the Yanks dumped us at the end of the war, Gaitskill fought the unilateralists, Wilson & Callaghan approved Chevaline, Blair kicked off the "Successor" programme in 2006

The question is would the PLP do a deal with the SNP?

And if they did how high on the list would be the removal of Trident be?

I can see it becoming only an "aspiration" while the SNP concentrate on getting more cash and powers from London so they can get their really overriding target which is a fully independent Scotland

[The Old Fat One]

Being a gambling man I rather suspect we are in for a chapter of political turmoil throughout the UK, which might drag on for quite a long time.

With the likelihood of any sort of one party majority looking ever less likely, we could see an unholy mess of king-making in order get some sort of administration in power.

But these parties (and the politicians that make them) do have to keep one eye on their popular mandates (especially in this regard, the SNP) or they will find themselves in for a damn good-kicking downstream.

I could certainly see a short term pact between Labour and the SNP...closely followed by a commons defeat and government collapse, the first time they try and apply a whip to any meaningful legislation.

Best just ignore it all and get on with your lives.

[ShotOne]

"Would labour do a deal with the SNP?" Being as Gordon did his best to stitch up a Lib Dem partnership that would have fallen not far short of a coup last time, I don't think there's any doubt about the answer to that one!

And it's not just about Trident. Their yanking of the purse strings in debates and votes far removed from defence could have serious impact.

[Rosevidney1]

'We live in interesting times' is sounding passe


We live in increasingly interesting times.


Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire again. History appears to be repeating itself.

[Martin the Martian]

I think there may be may elements of the public sector that would be happy to see a protracted period of negotiations in order to form a government if only so that they can be allowed to get on with their work without a politician peering over their shoulder and threatening to change everything again.

[NutLoose]

What gets me is Scotland had a resolution on binning Trident as part of the independence debate and it was firmly rejected, why then are these things back on the table..

[melmothtw]

What gets me is Scotland had a resolution on binning Trident as part of the independence debate and it was firmly rejected, why then are these things back on the table..

I'm not sure that anything was firmly rejected in the referendum. I seem to recall it was a pretty close-run thing. Setting that aside though, I think most commentators would suggest that it was independence rather than the Trident issue that was rejected.

Look on the bright side, if it is binned then Cameron (and any other UK leader) will no longer be able to hide behind the 2% for defence figure, unless they are to significantly increase spending on conventional capabilities.

[Fareastdriver]

Should Labour be the largest party there should be no problem in forming a minority goverment as long as they are not outnumbered by the right wing parties. They are not going to lose a vote of confidence as the SNP will support them for that and their Socialist agenda. Should the SNP insist on Trident being scrapped as a condition for their voting support Milliband will tell them to get knotted and that is all the SNP can really do,

[The Old Fat One]

should be no problem in forming a minority goverment as long as they are not outnumbered by the right wing parties

That's either a whopper of an oxymoron, or a statement of the blindingly obvious (or both).

Minority governments in the UK are inherently unstable and short-lived for the rather obvious reason that they can't push through legislation.

The UK has only had three minority governments in the last 40 odd years (or longer). One lasted 7 months, one lasted 2 years and collapsed after one of these "informal pacts" got sh1tcanned, and the only other one came about because of attrition during office of a small majority towards the end of its term.

Chill out, sit back and watch the fun unfold. Don't worry, the world will still spin.

[Xenophon]

Popcorn time : relax & watch them(whoever) sell their souls to the highest bidder. I don't return to UK until 5 days after polling (postal vote arranged) so may miss most of the fun. Prepare for run on the £.

[Heathrow Harry]

"Time to read The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire again. History appears to be repeating itself."

Not sure - I'm seriously short on both Bread AND Circuses.............

[Heathrow Harry]

"I don't return to UK until 5 days after polling (postal vote arranged) so may miss most of the fun."

no hope - the AVERAGE time it takes to form a coalition in European countries is 34 days - and they have years of practise

the good news is that generally countries are better off when the politicains are arguing and not in power

[scr1]

To see a coalition gov being negotiated watch Israel for the next few days or maybe weeks.

[Willard Whyte]

At least both sides of the political spectrum in Israel have a decent defence policy and, almost, as many nukes as us.

And more importantly the will to use them.

[Heathrow Harry]

more Isuspect

and a really itchy trigger ifnger


although they deny everything

[Wander00]

I think we see unfolding a massive example of the "law of unintended consequences" - voters, with massive encouragement from Conservative and Labour, reject independence for Scotland. As a consequence, it seems that the SNP (rot their socks) may have the balance of power in the UK Parliament with a relatively small number of MPs. Perhaps we should have let the bu@@ers go quietly

[Heathrow Harry]

pre 1914 there were a lot of Irish Nats in parliament and they caused a lot of ructions.......

everntually we let them go....

[Hangarshuffle]

Strikes me our islands are simply so less and less as one nation and its fair for the politicians to reflect this.
Might be a good idea for a few pruners to get out of their warm holes and actually travel around and listen to the many different types of people within the islands before lambasting them about their voting preferences.
The United Kingdom is a busted flush.

[AR1]

Better together - It works both ways. History will judge Cameron & Clegg in a much better light than the present. By forming a strong coalition at a time when minority government would have been disasterous, they have given us the platform for recovery, irrespective of your politics. Sadly it heralds the collapse of Liberal support as those to the left of centre react badly to courting the enemy. Who knows whats going to happen. Can't wait for the TV debates...

[Heathrow Harry]

I agree thatthe Coalition has done well - but there are also a lot of right wing Tories who loathe the idea - they sank the electoral reform deal with the LibDems which came back in spades when the LibDems sank the redrawing of boundaries - thus costing the Tories about 10 seats in May..............

[Fareastdriver]

I see the cuts on North Sea taxes would have cost an independent Scotland approximately 10% of its taxable income. It was going to be in trouble when the price dropped below $100 /bbl; it would be heading for bankruptcy now.

[Bigbux]

Change is horrible and expensive, and you have to find all kinds of new ways to solve your problems. But if the SNP and Labour did win, and we got a de-facto break up of the UK, with the deterrent scrapped and all kinds of Greek-style spending decisions - there would be a rebalance.

In the in/out referendum the rest of the UK did not get a say. I'm sure that in the aftermath of a Scottish highjack, devo max +++ would probably be insisted upon by the English electorate. Think of the benefits:


We could hand back all the "foreign" MPs - like Galloway.

We could let them have the 2 mahoussive carriers; originally future proofed and built large for catapult operations - now excessively large for VSTOL ops.

We could build and base all our own ships and submarines etc etc

But that would be very unfair on the majority of Scots who did NOT vote for the SNP in the referendum.

Surely such decisions are subject to a debate in the House - and an awful lot of jobs rely on the industries threatened.

[dervish]

If the polls are correct about the SNP and they hold the balance of power, the Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy will find himself in an intriguing position.

He and Salmond both blown out of the water in the space of 9 months then finding themselves allies in powerful positions.

[Biggus]

dervish,

Just how did Salmond get "blown out of the water"? He went from well behind in the original polls to within a hairs breath of winning the referendum. I can't see Jim Murphy being in a "powerful position", leader of Labour in Scotland with just a handful of westminster MPs and in opposition in the Scottish Parliament.

The people co-operating will be Salmond and Milliband if your scenario comes to pass, which I believe it will. Murphy will be an irrelevance.

[melmothtw]

But that would be very unfair on the majority of Scots who did NOT vote for the SNP in the referendum.

No Scots voted for the SNP in the referendum - they voted for or against independence.

[pax britanica]

Why not go the whole way and 'Balkanise' the UK . Economics have already done that .
As a good example on one of the day time property show a decent terraced 3 bed house in NI sold for 45k , following program had some hideous Russian woman in London arguing with her Polish builder over completion dates so she could install her 50k bed. That is an awful disparity in a very small country.

So allow Scotland NI amd Wales to go their own way. Yorkshire and NE is probably another area as in the NW. Pretty easy to cut up the rest and cut London adrift , it is after all full of 'foreigners' and criminals and we in the SE can charge them massive sums for food, water, sewage, use of airspace electricity etc etc etc.

Thats alla bit tongue in cheek but sadly the one size fits all model just doesnt work for us any more. Unlike much of Europe we dont have significant third and fourth parties who balance out different coalitions over time or in the US where the Feds only control so much of day to day life and even at the Federal level there are often balances between executive ad legislative.
Can any one here really claim that first past the post with its violent 'mood swings' has really served this country well since WW2?

[ShotOne]

"If you hold the balance, you hold the power". Alex Salmond on The Marr Show, today. Nobody can accuse Mr Salmond of not being upfront about his intentions to use every electoral opportunity to wield power.

[Courtney Mil]

We could hand back all the "foreign" MPs - like Galloway.

Could you explain than that a little more? Galloway sounds like he is Scottish. He is the sitting MP for Bradford West, a constituency in England, before I'm misunderstood). But he is not a MSP or a Scottish MP sitting the Commons (MP in a constituency in Scotland sitting in the UK Parliament. So how will he be "handed back" exactly. You think someone may deport all the Scots from England? Really?

No, your sarcasm wasn't lost on me. Just raising a point. NOI.

But it's going to be OK as the Tory candidate for Bradford West may just get elected leaving that idiot Galloway nowhere else to go apart from Scotland or a couple of places in the Middle East.

[Willard Whyte]

Minority governments in the UK are inherently unstable and short-lived for the rather obvious reason that they can't push through legislation.

A little less legislation wouldn't go amiss.

[Heathrow Harry]

who was the French writer who wrote:-

"no man's life, liberty or property is safe while the legistlature are in session"???

[ShotOne]

Fears of an SNP takeover are coming to life; yesterday one of their top people, Stewart Hosie, laid it on the line that they would block defence spending if Mr Milliband refused to scrap Trident. This could lead to unpaid salaries and delays in equipment projects. In the normal run of parliamentary process this doesn't happen even when parties have major differences. But in the SNP case they would prefer the UK didn't exist so the more mayhem the better

[Wensleydale]

Being interviewed on BBC this morning, the Scot Nat spokesman stated that they would scrap Trident and use the money to bring in maritime patrol aircraft. Now I thought that the primary function of the MPA was to protect Trident?

[Hangarshuffle]

My sketchy understanding is the SNP will expel Trident from the Faslane base as quickly as they can - no longer based there, meaning the submarine will seek a new base-Plymouth Devonport probably.
I can see Labour going this as its a headline solution-keeps the SNP on their side of the house division, and keeps us (the remainder of the UK) with a nuclear weapon system for a little bit of time. But yes of course England will have no real support facility at Devonport because that is in Scotland. USA to the rescue here, in that capacity, for a time? Beyond that general UK disintegration will somehow occur, bit by bit. Thatcherism from beyond the grave..she must be laughing. She hated the Scots, among many other things (football, railways, trades unions). No way SNP will sanction increased defence spending, I think and guess their vision is for a much more Scando style future for the nation. Its just chickens coming home to roost.

[Hangarshuffle]

ScotForce MPA to defend the remaining oil fields/wind farms/fishing rights? Good call.

[Tourist]

I disagree with everything Galliway says, but the world of politics would be far worse off without him.

He is the best debater and orator I have seen by a country mile.

Watch the video of him destroying a senate inquiry. Awesome

[ShotOne]

"no way SNP would sanction increased defence spending..." Thats a gigantic understatement! They would be in a position to block EVERY vote concerning defence, and vote to divert funds in favour of other expensive projects which would take chunks out of the existing budget. If that rendered the UK defenceless, as far as they're concerned, so what?

[ShotOne]

**bonus stars for Hang shuff for somehow getting in a mention for Mrs Thatcher here. Did she hate Scotland? How would you know -her party were/are firmly committed to the union; it's even in the name. Trade unions? Ok nothing to do with the thread but I'll bite, and I write as a fully paid up trade union member. Would you really prefer to live in a country where the likes of Scargill or Gormley could turn your electricity off at will?

[Skeleton]

Nicola Sturgeon has had a good teacher in the "tell them how it is going to be" before we actually win anything show thanks to Wee Eck. I think Scotland should be Independent, and am I also certain Scotland could be Independent but not with Wee Eck and his puppet running the show, which is why the majority said no.

[Reinhardt]

Should the SNP "expel Trident from the Faslane base as quickly as they can" then what would remain of UK after a secession would be too small to afford some significant defence of any sort, would it be an Air Force, an Army, a Navy or a nuclear "triad" - which for the moment is a one-finger element, with US warheads and US control in any case.
So in other words UK would become smaller, and the significant foreign population with no real british interests or feelings would become more apparent in perspective (just watch the number of indians who discover themselves scottish, as a result of some resentment towards "colonial" England...)
How sad that a country which didn't surrender in WWII and led the fight of the Free World for two years alone (75 years ago, anyway - it was a different generation) has now become so much prone to self-disbanding and desintegration ?
Being from another european country which still has independant nuc' submarines and bombers, along with MPA and aircraft carriers, I cannot prevent myself from thinking that we - and others - should benefit from that semi-retirement of this island country from the international scene, as a result of its reduction in size...

It seems the US got the same conclusion.

[woptb]

**bonus stars for Hang shuff for somehow getting in a mention for Mrs Thatcher here. Did she hate Scotland? How would you know -her party were/are firmly committed to the union; it's even in the name.

Introduction of the poll tax,closure of mines, steel plants and other traditional industries across Scotland,may have been indicators.

Thatcher's impact in Scotland was electorally lethal for the Conservative Party.A leader that a wide cross-section of Scots despise,making Conservatism toxic & playing a huge part in the rise of Scottish Nationalism.

Her behaviour towards has Scotland totally skewed British politics and has made the SNP's apparent influence over UK defence possible.

[StuartP]

Introduction of the poll tax,closure of mines, steel plants and other traditional industries across Scotland,may have been indicators.


And South Wales, Lancashire, Yorkshire, the Midlands, Teeside, Tyneside, and Kent.

She appears to have hated most people, not just the Scots.

[hoofie]

Reinhardt - UK Nuclear weapon warheads are UK designed, built and use plutonium from UK reactors. The only control the US has is the provision of replacement missile bodies and servicing since they make them.

The US has no direct control mechanism over the use of Trident Ballistic Missiles operated by the UK. It of course has in-direct control as in "Please God, don't fire one".

[Jetex_Jim]

hoofie The only control the US has is the provision of replacement missile bodies and servicing since they make them.

IIRC, it's been revealed that the USA has to supply regular software updates. Should they decide not to do so the missiles become useless after a maximum of 18 months.

On another note I'm pleased that this thread has not been merged with the Jet Blast Scottish Independence thread. For one thing the standard of comments are rather better here.

Today someone told me that certain strategic industries, including the former Ferranti organisation that makes the Captor radar, would have to move to England, (or Wales or NI presumably) in the event of Scotland leaving the UK. Scaremongering or substance? Given that that radar is in any case produced by Selex, a primarily Italian company.

The whole question of Scottish independence looks set to make the discussion about the UK remaining part of the EU look trivial. Should the UK loose Scotland can the rest of the union remain part of the EU? The UK-Scotland union no longer being the same country that joined the EU. Should someone start promoting the idea that an independent Scotland would mean an automatic British exit even the UKIP will get behind the idea.

[Speedywheels]

Today someone told me that certain strategic industries, including the former Ferranti organisation that makes the Captor radar, would have to move to England, (or Wales or NI presumably) in the event of Scotland leaving the UK. Scaremongering or substance? Given that that radar is in any case produced by Selex, a primarily Italian company.

Presumably that is on the assumption that Scotland would not be a member of NATO, which obviously does include Italy.

[baffman]

Presumably that is on the assumption that Scotland would not be a member of NATO, which obviously does include Italy.
Unlikely to be a NATO issue. More likely, as with shipbuilding, to be down to the fact that under EU competition regulations, nations such as the UK can give preference to in-country defence contractors but can't give preference to any foreign contractor.

In other words, a Ferranti or similar defence company based in an independent Scotland would have to compete on cost with other bidders across the EU, and could find competitors in the remaining-UK being given preference over them for remaining-UK defence contracts.

[alwayslookingup]

I'll keep it simple, folks.

Trident renewal is a red herring. If it's Milliband in govt with confidence and supply from the SNP then there are enough Tories and Labour willing to vote to renew Trident to make the SNP votes unnecessary.

And, we don't actually "need" anything from the UK, we're quite happy to go it alone. We raise enough taxes and are productive enough to stand on out own two feet. Heck, there are even plenty of skilled and semi skilled poor sods floating around in the Med right now I'd be delighted to give a home to. Countries need PEOPLE to prosper. The states have done pretty well with their "poor, huddled masses" in the last few hundred years.

So once and for all, if you're all so fed up with perfidious Albion, LET US GO! Keep your Tories, UKIP and champagne socialists, let us get on with running our country for ourselves. Rant over.

ps, check out "Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (c. 14)". A government can only be brought down now if they lose a vote of no confidence OR a two thirds majority of members votes that there shall be a new Parliament. Remember, once this election is done and dusted the SNP and other parties in Scotland have to do it ALL OVER AGAIN in 2016 for the Scottish Parliament.

[Herod]

So once and for all, if you're all so fed up with perfidious Albion, LET US GO!

You had the option last year, as I recall, and 55% of you didn't want to leave. That's called democracy, which if we get the SNP controlling UK votes, it isn't.

[serf]

That's called democracy, which if we get the SNP controlling UK votes, it isn't.

Really, could you explain that please?

[Al R]

alwayslookingup,

The SNP predicated its referendum manifesto on oil prices (http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/scottish-politics/snp-accused-of-deception-after-government-refuses-to-release-oil-revenue-.124040626) - it wouldn't be pretty.

[Thelma Viaduct]

Sooner be shafted by a jock than a robbing southern eton sub-human tory spiv.

[alwayslookingup]

Herod
Living in England you won;t be privy to the number of people who voted no last September on the basis of what was promised and who now wished they'd voted yes. Believe me, it's a lot.

Al R
Read Standard & Poor's analysis of what the economy of an Independent Scotland would comprise. Only about 15% of the economy would be based on oil revenue. Scotland is an extremely diverse economy, as is the entire UK. At oil prices around $60 a barrel very few fields in the North Sea are actually paying tax, so how much revenue is the UK Exchequer losing itself? Of course, as has been discussed ad infinitum, if successive UK govts had set up an oil fund like Norway.... As before, I'd be happy to take my chances. Oh, and S & P also said one of the strengths of Scotland at present is open and accountable government and public bodies. We've had a Parliament here since 1999 without any expense scandals, cash for questions, nepotism or ministers of state exerting undue influence.

As I said previously, we don't need anything from the UK Parliament, (other than another Independence Referendum when the Scottish People are ready for it), so the idea that SNP MPs would operate as some sort of wrecking bar in the parliament is only coming from the opposition. Trident would go through without SNP votes and there is very little else where SNP votes would be required. You can't beg and plead for us to stay as part of the UK then throw your toys out of the pram when we have the temerity to vote the way we want to and then possibly use that to our advantage as and when required. In the lead up to the Referendum last September David Cameron said that Scotland should not only stay in the UK, but should lead the UK. Bet he wishes he'd kept his trap shut now.

And finally, none of this really matters up here now. The SNP vote is in the bag, and is at a level that the other parties can only dream about. Instead of spending air time and effort trying to influence something they can't change, perhaps the Tories and Labour should concentrate their efforts where they'd have the most impact, on each other.

[Al R]

I have done. This (http://www.economist.com/news/business-and-finance/21642130-justice-departments-treatment-sp-raises-some-serious-questions-fine-too-far) Standard & Poor's you mean?

Don't get me wrong, I'm all for Scottish independence (genuinely, and I hope we can all subsequently work together). And (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/shetland-orkney-and-the-outer-hebrides-demand-independence-referendums-of-their-own-if-scotland-votes-yes-9217514.html) Shetland, Orkney, Hebrides too, mind.

[Tengah Type]

Alway looking up #48

" We raise enough taxes and are productive enough to stand on our own two feet."

So we can end the Barnett Formula forthwith?

[alwayslookingup]

Tengah Type
Yep. Give us full fiscal autonomy. Let us raise all our own taxes and give us control of all the revenue raised (including, of course, the revenue raised from North Sea Oil and Gas fields that would devolve to Scotland). What's hard about that? No need for rUK to have to worry about subsidising us any more, no worries about the amount of money "going over Hadrian's Wall". Just leave us to it, we're not your worry any more. How hard is that to accept?

[gsa]

Trident renewal is a red herring. If it's Milliband in govt with confidence and supply from the SNP then there are enough Tories and Labour willing to vote to renew Trident to make the SNP votes unnecessary.

Good god you cant say that, Cameron doesn't want you to think that way.

[The Old Fat One]

Living in England you won;t be privy to the number of people who voted no last September on the basis of what was promised and who now wished they'd voted yes. Believe me, it's a lot.

I'm English living in Scotland (and in the epicentre of the Yes vote to boot). I have zero interest in politics (and I mean zero) so could not give a FF who governs Scotland and/or the UK. Having property North and South of Hadrian's Wall I do have a great concern over outcomes which affect Residence and Domicile (which are legal international terms, which I know a fair bit about).

Thus, I watched the referendum with a forensic and analytic eye, from the perspective of being right in the thick of it.

That quote above is not true - pure and simple. A lot of Scotland will always vote no (just as a lot of Scotland will always vote yes). Look at the votes away for the central belt, which at times reached 65% No.

The vote is predominantly ordered around age demographics. Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling.

Scotland will get independence have no fear of that, and maybe by a smash and grab opportunistic raid in a few years. But much, much more likely in 10-15 years time, when the top half of the current population have shuffled off the mortal coil.

Pity really, life should be an adventure and I was looking forward to the opportunities carving up the UK would present.

[ShotOne]

Re "Let us go!" There is a thread running (on jetblast) on the subject of independence. The issue isn't whether or not the SNP would make a good job of running Scotland; it's whether they should be put in a position "to call the tune" for the entire UK.

Pious pilot, I'd like to be shafted by the jock or spiv that wins the election, not whoever gets most leverage in the likely event of a minority government

[Herod]

Ref my post 49. The population of the UK is about 63.8 million; of which 5.3 million (8%). IF the SNP win their 40 seats and end up supporting a minority government, we get the situation where a group of MPs, who we didn't have any chance of voting for, and whose whole raison d'etre is the break up of the nation, holding the rest of us to ransom. I guess it's democracy of a sort, but I'm not sure it's what it should be..

[The Old Fat One]

^^

IF the SNP win their 40 seats and end up supporting a minority government, we get the situation where a group of MPs, who we didn't have any chance of voting for, and whose whole raison d'etre is the break up of the nation, holding the rest of us to ransom.

Nope...think it through.

If NS gets into to some sort of coalition (even a loose one) she will be faced with compromising the very politics which are proving so popular in Scotland, or pulling the rug from under Milibrand in short order, which will simply lead to another general election.

The danger to the UK from a SNP/Labour coalition is emphatically not constitutional change or a massive shift in the main political landscape. The danger is economic & political uncertainty & stasis for an indeterminate period.

If the jocks still want independence (and many want it more than ever) their best hope is a continuation of the current coalition, which will polarise and harden feelings on both sides of the border. (as evidenced by Cameron's latest pledge: English laws for English voters.)

[ShotOne]

Agreed, the danger isn't constitutional change; it's the firm tartan grasp on the nations purse-strings which will ensue and that Alex Salmond is already openly boasting about.

[Tengah Type]

Alwayslookingup #56

If Scottish Government income was reduced to the level of UK per capita income it would mean a cut of 7.3 Billion per annum. Even if the whole 4.745 Billion of Oil and Gas Revenue ( Including the Southern North Sea ) was allocated to Scotland it would still leave a shortfall of 2.5 Billion. As Scottish average income is some 10% lower than in England, Tax rates would have to rise in Scotland to pay for it, or expenditure reduced.

Meanwhile I will enjoy my Tax cut.

" How hard is that to accept? " - Not very hard at all.

[glad rag]

Awesome thread....:mad:

[alwayslookingup]

Tengah Type
So we run a deficit. Where have I heard that before? In fact, pre 1707 the then independent Scotland had no debt. In order to balance the share of the English debt it would become liable for, a sum of money, called "The Equivalent", was paid to Scotland. Ironically part of this was used as the seed capital for the formation of, The Royal Bank of Scotland!

So, I'll take my chances. Can you fix it?!!

Meanwhile, to return to a military aviation theme. Although it's not part of this election, but in the event of Scotland becoming independent, what happens to Lossiemouth, and all the lovely low flying training areas north of Hadrian's Wall? What will become England's Garvie Island, somewhere on the Isles of Scilly?

[longer ron]

I have spent quite a lot of time in scotland during the last 12 months and would ask the english forum members to remember that many many scots do not share the views of the SNP and do not wish to see the UK break up.
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !

The main uk parties do have to try and wheel out people with more 'street cred' than Darling and 'Broon' though :)

[Rosevidney1]

longer ron wrote:


I have spent quite a lot of time in scotland during the last 12 months and would ask the english forum members to remember that many many scots do not share the views of the SNP and do not wish to see the UK break up.
TBH - the SNP spokespersons always remind me of angry 1970's trade unionists.
The people who wish to remain 'british' tend to be quieter than the SNP's !


Absolutely true! my Scottish friends are appalled at what is going on , allegedly 'in their name'.

[alwayslookingup]

Ron,

that's stating the bleedin' obvious. That's like saying the majority of English people don't like Labour, or the Tories, but under the FPTP electoral system have to put up with a Government they didn't elect. Far better with a proportional system, some say. But wait, isn't that exactly what we have in the Scottish Parliament. And who was elected into government there in 2011 by an absolute majority, breaking a system that was specifically designed to ensure no single party could achieve an overall majority?.....

In truth, TOFO in Post #58 above hit the nail on the head when he said;-

"The vote is predominantly ordered around age demographics. (my emphasis). Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling."

I can't improve on that.

[longer ron]

It might be a slight over simplification to say it is just age related !

Although some younger people might just be a little more naive about trusting any politician ;)

[alwayslookingup]

Ron,

correct, there are other factors to consider. The best analysis of voting patterns I have come across is by Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University:-

So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No? - What Scotland Thinks (http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2014/09/voted-yes-voted/)

From this lengthy article:-

"Between them the two exercises confirm the presence of four patterns that were evident in the polls throughout most of the campaign: women, older people, those in more affluent circumstances and those who were born elsewhere in the UK were all relatively reluctant to vote Yes."

[Willard Whyte]

Every morning I sat in the gym sauna and listened to 40 plus Scots ranting about wee eck. Every day I went to work and listened to 20 plus Scots ranting about Captain Darling.

Twice as many people in a 'gym' (whatever that is) as at work. Not sure whether to be surprised or not, iven it's scotlandland.

[longer ron]

Yes the geographical split was my guess,I do worry about what would happen in scotland if independence actually occurs... as I said on here before - far better to have the damned english to blame for everything than turn inwards and have internal strife - which would be almost inevitable once the country went bankrupt.
I am on the verge of returning to scotland after many years away and am reluctant to invest any capital in property etc because of the fear of the possibility of independence -

I know many people in scotland - none want independence and they are all hard workers !

[alwayslookingup]

Willard, I think he meant 40 plus as in over forty years old, same for twenty plus.

Nobody's bitten yet about Lossie and the LFAs or Garvie Island in the event of Scottish Independence? A couple of years ago that would have been Lossie, Kinloss & Leuchars, but we know who closed the latter two RAF stations. I say RAF as there is still a military capability, just not light blue. not even bright yellow helicopters, as even that capability's been privatised!

[The Old Fat One]

Willard, I think he meant 40 plus as in over forty years old, same for twenty plus.

Correct

Nobody's bitten yet about Lossie and the LFAs or Garvie Island in the event of Scottish Independence?

TBF it's beyond analysis. The vast majority of people living in these Islands have absolutely no idea about the ramifications of a UK break up to everybody, whichever side of the border they live on. The Scottish Law Society produced a public paper about 6 months before the referendum highlighting the massive range of unanswered (and unasked) questions pertinent to the debate. It was pretty sobering reading...except nobody read it, it was not debated, it got no publicity. Several academic figures blogged much the same thing.

AS based his campaigning on the idea that everybody would have got round the table and carved everything up in a very reasoned and sensible fashion. I am FAR from convinced that is the way it would have played. I have a feeling that the Scots would have faced a united, angry and vindictive rUK, much as Ireland did when they went their own way...and it took them fifty years and more to "normalise" their state.

Like I said...it would have been (and in the future, will be) an adventure...but those that think things would have got better overnight (or even in their lifetime) are naive beyond belief.

[Jetex_Jim]

TOFOLike I said...it would have been (and in the future, will be) an adventure...but those that think things would have got better overnight (or even in their lifetime) are naive beyond belief.

Perhaps, but while the independent Scots wait for their circumstances to improve they will be consoled by the fact that they are no longer part of an economy which is run largely in the interests of the international banking community.

[longer ron]

Western Countries are run by big business - not by governments LOL

The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country...as TOFO posted - nobody really knows how the break up would actually be worked out but we can be sure that it would cost every tax payer in the former UK a shed load of money - and for what ?
So a few people can do a power grab LOL

The grass will not be greener on the other side when you start paying through the nose to split from rUK !

[perthsaint]

The SNP leadership have been running a country for the last 8 years.

Plenty of people know how the creation of the two successor states would work. It's happened 150 times in the last 70 years.

[alwayslookingup]

Ron

"The SNP leadership do not have a clue about running a country"

Little bit off the mark there. As I intimated in a post above, the SNP have actually been the Government in Scotland since 2007. In the first four years they ran as a minority govt, since 2011 they have been in majority, in a proportional system designed to ensure NO one Party should achieve a majority, but they did. So, contrary to your assertion, they have extensive experience of running a country, both as a minority government AND a majority government.

Remind me, just how much experience did Cameron/Clegg/Osborne have of running a country before 2010? And, as is looking increasingly likely, how much experience have Miliband and Co had of running a country?

Nobody ever said Independence was going to be easy, in fact it was anticipated life would potentially be worse in the initial few years. But, as has been alluded to above, at least we'd be running our own affairs, and not have the strings being pulled by banks and business interests who's personnel pay little or no tax here due to their very convenient non dom status.

Edited to say "perthsaint beat me to it"

[longer ron]

The difference is - they are running it as part of the United Kingdom - with money supplied by taxpayers including English taxpayers ;).

Funnily enough if the Union is split - the English are as likely to say 'up yours' and give away as little as possible - and all the money will then be coming from Scottish taxpayers - huge difference ;)

They will not be part of the EU (unless the rules are rewritten ) there will likely be a big pull out of businesses because of big uncertainties.

You only have to look at me - I am reluctant to buy a house in scotland in case the SNP do get independence - read that across to big business ;)

[The Stimulator]

And in that 8 years of SNP run government, council tax has been frozen, resulting in cutbacks in council provided public services, which tend to slip under the media radar.

Anyway, I thought this thread was about the influence the SNP would have in the UK post the May 2015 election, not what may have happened following last years referendum, the result of which was clearly in favour of continuing as a member state of the UK

[Courtney Mil]

I love the unshakeable confidence of the nationalist fanatics. It must come from Salmond's behaviour during the referendum, persistently spouting "certainties" even in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. And the ability to quote what one country did to another back in 1707 or some such irrelevance. And the fact that you seem to have three times as much to say as everyone else.

Still, reading your rants filled in some time during half time in the Rugby.

Back to the game. Crack on, as if it will make any difference.

[glad rag]

It might be a slight over simplification to say it is just age related !

Although some younger people might just be a little more naive about trusting any politician ;)

Just goes to show how out of touch you are then ;)


All this media induced storm over the SNP is just that.

We had the same :mad: flung at us during the referendum debate, in the end 38% of the voting population voted YES [that’s right 38% they even lie about that but no surprises there] and this really is their LAST chance, hopefully they will be rejected once again and then they can fade into oblivion, just like the Nazi's their originator Arthur Donaldson so admired!!


http://s27.postimg.org/n5jrccwc3/Arthur_Donaldson_Hitler_Youth.jpg

"you can be sure that Germany will give us every possible assistance in our early struggle. The time is not yet ripe for us to start a virile campaign against England, but when fire and confusion is at its height in England, we can start in earnest."

http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/mi5-file-links-former-snp-leader-to-nazi-plan-1-1103305


Donaldson and Wolfe- a marriage made in heaven....

http://s23.postimg.org/nsp3eu9wb/Arthur_Donaldson_William_Wolfe.jpg


Or perhaps not..

Letters reveal SNP crisi over ?bigoted? president?s anti-Catholic diatribes (From The Times 11-9-2010) | David Torrance (http://davidtorrance.com/letters-reveal-snp-crisi-over-bigoted-presidents-anti-catholic-diatribes-from-the-times-11-9-2010/)

"It was February 1982 and Pope John Paul II’s pastoral visit to Scotland was just months away. The Vatican’s diplomatic representative to the United Kingdom had recently been upgraded to ambassadorial rank and Billy Wolfe, leader of the SNP from 1969-79 and a Kirk elder, wrote to Life and Work – the “pre-eminent voice of the Church of Scotland” – to voice his opposition. The Vatican, he argued, was “not much larger than a town’s public park” and its population (“I understand, nearly all priests”) “only about 700”. As such, it was “neither a city nor a state” and therefore not entitled to send a diplomatic representative to the “Protestant United Kingdom”.


Scottish Nationalism has strong historic links to some pretty odious political movements, is it not unreasonable to point out the SNP's refusal to acknowledge their history and apologise for it?

Why won't they :hmm:.

[alwayslookingup]

Jeez, Glad Rag, don't know where to start on that one, so don't think I'll bother. Bigger fish to fry. Need to cut the grass then have a shave and shower, got a hot date later.

[glad rag]

Jeez, Glad Rag, don't know where to start on that one, so don't think I'll bother. Bigger fish to fry. Need to cut the grass then have a shave and shower, got a hot date later.

Really ?

z4uivPpzCGo

[Biggus]

So who deleted my last comment on this thread - and why?






(cybernats at work???)

[Biggus]

What was my deleted post?

It went something like this:

The way things will pan out is as follows.

May 2015 election - SNP take vast majority of seats in Scotland. Minority Labour government formed, relying on SNP votes to achieve anything.

On the basis of their success, the SNP put into their 2016 election manifesto for the Scottish Parliament that they will seek a second referendum on independence "as soon as possible".

2016 Scottish elections - SNP government returned with large majority.

SNP states that on basis of their majority achieved in both the 2015 and 2016 elections, especially given the inclusion of a referendum pledge in their 2016 manifesto, that "the Scottish people have spoken" and demand a second independence referendum. A weak Labour government, reliant on SNP votes to stay in power, has little choice but to agree.

2017/2018 - second Scottish independence referendum held, narrow YES victory.

2020 - Scotland becomes independent as Westminster parliament comes to the end of its 5 year fixed term.

The above scenario is largely predictable, and virtually unstoppable - and I'm not the only one to think so!

Election 2015: Row over second independence referendum warning - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-scotland-32458891)

How long before this post is "deleted"??

[glad rag]

The above scenario is largely predictable, and virtually unstoppable - and I'm not the only one to think so!

'Tis is often said that the harshest conflict is of sibling rivarly....

:ugh:

[Tengah Type]

alwayslooking up # 65

"So we run a deficit". Seems to be a Scottish habit. The UK deficit was run up by Anthony Charles Linton Blair nee Edinburgh and James Gordon Brown nee Glasgow. Do you hate the next generation(s) so much you will saddle them with your bills?

"In fact, pre 1707 the then independent Scotland had no debt" - also no navy, no industry and few roads. After the Darien Expedition had blown £400,000 (about 50% of total Scottish capital), 58.6% of The Equivalent (£398,085 10 shillings) was used to reimburse the shareholders of the Scotland Company. Many of whom were in the Scottish Parliament - No conflict of interest there then. Some of the rest was used to set up RBS, now 81% owned by UK taxpayers thanks to Fred the Shred.

Your second point - with the current size of the UK armed forces I do not suppose we need the Scottish LFAs as much as we did. Lossie will be the ideal base for the whole of the Scottish Air Force, and you can use Kinloss for the whole of the Army. Garvie Island can be another Scottish tourist attraction.

Hope the hot date goes well.

Perthsaint # 77

"Plenty of people know how the creation of the two successor states would work"

Three recent examples using IMF World Ranking of GDP per capita:

Czech Republic 38 Slovak Republic 40 Difference 5%
Sudan 138 South Sudan 161 Difference 40%
Ethiopia 174 Eritrea 180 Difference 90%

Then there are the minor difficulties of setting up the machinery for Passports, Driving Licences, etc. Hmm!.

In case you think I am a Scots hater - my sons are called Stuart and Andrew.

[perthsaint]

Thanks for confirming my point, TT.

[1.3VStall]

And the relevance of this continuing ranting post to military aviation is.........?

[airpolice]

Billy Wolfe:

I was a friend of Billy's in the later days of his involvement with the SNP, despite my Catholic background.

I found him to be honestly passionate about Scottish Independence and I got the impression that he was more in favour of it for Scotland than for himself, than he had been in the late 70s early 80s.

This seemed to be due to the fact that he was not going to be on the gravy train now, so where it stopped was largely academic to him.

He was a great font of knowledge on the processes and constitution of the SNP, as well as really good laugh when telling tales of how he had watched people elbow each other out of the way to the slippery pole.

Mostly, what I would say in response to digging up Billy's objection to the Papal visit, has been said on pprune many times before.

The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there.

[Courtney Mil]

I agree with you 1.3VStall. It made an amusing read earlier this afternoon, but this is just becoming another angry rant. And most of the points have all been made here before ad nausiam.

Move to Jet Blast now. Nothing to do with Mil Av.

[ShotOne]

There is one already. I started this one specifically to highlight the post election influence likely to be placed in the hands of the SNP and the effect on UK finances, specifically the defence budget. Unfortunately my attempts to nudge the debate back in that direction have been unsuccessful.