Is this Deja Vu? Balad & Al Asad

[Lonewolf_50]

About a decade ago, various un-friendlies in Iraq had the hobby of lobbing rockets and mortars into the Balad Air Base where some U.S. aircraft were based. While a lot of the time they didn't hit much, sometimes they hit things and killed people. Any of you who got to spend some time in Balad (like the son of one of my friends) probably remember the hobby with little affection.

Fast forward ten years later and we learn that the lovely gents in ISIS are now lobbing "ineffective" indirect fire into Al Asad, where there are a few hundred US advisors assisting the Iraqi Army.

It may be ineffective early, but some folks improve their aim over time.

Then what?
More advisors, Fort Apache(Al Asad), or something else?

[West Coast]

Those are names I recognize from GW1.

Can't believe that was pushing 25 years ago.

[VinRouge]

Perhaps the soluton is counter battery radar and 155mm howitzer

[Lonewolf_50]

Vin Rouge, the rules as I remember them when we had over 100,000 in country didn't often permit that in built up areas. I doubt, now that we are mostly "out" more than "in" that such a scheme would be implemented by anyone in the US chain.

What the current Iraqi government and military chain of command would permit I won't guess at, beyond suspecting that they don't want to be goaded into shelling a civilian area in al Anbar province. ;)

[Davef68]

Counter battery radar and a datalink to an MQ-9?

[Lonewolf_50]

Dave:
Interesting combination if you have them available.

One of the wrinkles to the problem solution of counter battery fire in this scenario:

if you want to hit a rocket or mortar firing position in such a bit of guerilla warfare, you have a finite time window before the folks involved disappear into the local population. (If they didn't fire remotely). You also have the problem of having sufficient confidence that the firing position wasn't right behind the usual orphanage or school before that battery lets loose. Getting it wrong costs you in the media war, which is part and parcel to the battlefield these days.

Being fortunate enough to have the aerial asset in the right piece of sky with the right other conditions is an interesting problem is estimation and prediction. I remember one fine day where it all came together, and more than one where it didn't.

Not sure how far the state of the art has advanced in the interim.

[downsizer]

When I visited Balad regularly between '05-09 it was surrounded by Phalanx's that were always blasting off at the IDFs.

[VinRouge]

I think the theory being that if the locals know there will be incoming every time one is set up, it might lead to a bit of attitude adjustment in terms of allowing rocket setting scrotes to use your roof as a mortar or rocket base plate...

[Lonewolf_50]

downsizer:
What did they end up hitting?

[Lima Juliet]

Yup Phalanx was impressive during the practice firings, let alone for the real deal. Very effective as well if I recall...

LJ

[VinRouge]

T'was impressive to watch. Used to like the little airbursts off the top as they used to self-destruct. Sounded awesome too.

[downsizer]

What did they end up hitting?

Incoming rounds. I couldn't say the success rate in all honesty, but I was IDF'd a lot less at Balad than Basra.:\

[downsizer]

Drove past one on the way to the DFAC outside FLP. Fooking shat myself when it went off....as did most of the others in the wagon...:}:D

[VinRouge]

Gives you an idea from where we were. AWesome to watch whilst airborne.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILcVt9p7cug

[Lonewolf_50]

Attack on al-Asad no threat to U.S. troops, Pentagon says (http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/02/13/al-asad-attack/23360103/)

It appears that the government forces successfully repulsed a raid by ISIS fighters who were dressed in ... government forces uniforms. :eek:

From the PoV of the various anti-government groups in Anbar province, I'll suggest that Al Asad is a high value target. Open source news and US government sources confirm over a hundred Americans there in a support role. For ISIS goons, that likely represents a potentially rich hostage grab opportunity. Granted, they are up against an armed camp, with professional soldiers, but that doesn't mean they won't try.

With that thought foremost, I assert that this raid, which was repulsed, was a probe. A follow up is likely using various misdirection and different tactics now that a response has been assessed.

ISIS' freedom action seems to me considerable. Most of inhabitants of Al Anbar are Sunni (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunni) Muslims, and most of them are from the Dulaim (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulaim) tribe.

As noted previously, most of the province is occupied by or symypathetic to DASEH/Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_of_Iraq_and_the_Levant).

Is it that hard to retain support? I think not.