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fliion
9th Oct 2014, 23:31
Had a very troubling chat with a 1st class pax on board this week @ L1.

He was a SNR VP with a Global Bank & he said they were having frenzied crisis meetings dealing with what they see will materialize in the next six months.

Points below essentially what they are preparing for should worst case scenario develop.

- it's unstoppable due complete lack of ability to handle proliferation in West Africa.

- Only a matter of time before it gets to Saudi due pilgrims.

- once in Saudi , it will go to all GCC labor camps & eventually it will go East - the nightmare scenario

- India, Bangla, Pak. Teaming cities, no hygiene close quarters etc

- Dubai & GCC tourism collapses, along with property market & a run on the bank

- Emirates (ME4) decimated

- civil unrest, 2 years to fix, 10m die.

Don't shoot the messenger, that's what he was preparing for and he was very serious.

Not cool.

f.

SOPS
10th Oct 2014, 00:19
I find that very concerning.

tartare
10th Oct 2014, 00:56
The biggest risk it poses is getting into mega-cities like Lagos.
17-21 million people (depending on whose population estimates you believe) living in very close proximity, poorly equipped health systems and lack of public education on how to contain it.
The disease itself is not really a first world threat - the economic flow-on effects may be.
The current hysteria in the US is laughable.
Ebola is it's own worst enemy - it is so lethal, and transmission via bodily fluids is not as effective as via aerosol.

SOPS
10th Oct 2014, 01:45
The thing is, this outbreak seems to be doing a better job of spreading. Well in MHO. Other outbreaks have self contained...but I'm not sure this on has. Add the fact that Air France is still flying to infected areas, and therefore have the ability to drop off people with the virus into the middle of Paris, plus all those arriving on leaky boats...it could get bad

ABBOT
10th Oct 2014, 03:52
This outbreak seems different to previous events, I was living in Nairobi during one of the early outbreaks. It was then difficult to become infected, but around 95% lethal.

This recent outbreak seems much easier to acquire, but about 50% lethal. Is that about accurate?

vfenext
10th Oct 2014, 05:08
Is this thread really based on a medical opinion given by a banker? Are we back to trusting bankers already? How naive.

UAV689
10th Oct 2014, 05:11
What about other security risks, some mental from IS goes to africa, gets body fluids from a corpse, and realease on a the tube in london, new york etc....sounds like a movie..so did 9/11...

crewmeal
10th Oct 2014, 05:50
Well the UK have started doing their bit now by interviewing pax at LHR LGW and Eurostar points (presumably St Pancras). Morocco also doing their bit by taking temperatures of pax that come in from West Africa. Will this help I ask myself?

Guess the only way to stop diseases spreading is to stop travelling.

Trader
10th Oct 2014, 06:28
If the banker is at risk financially--you BET I listen! They will be the FIRST to protect their positions and I have no doubt their risk analysis involved doctors and high level knowledge.

vfenext
10th Oct 2014, 06:50
Trader I bet you read the Daily Mail and watch FOX News

no sponsor
10th Oct 2014, 07:34
I suspect Trader is talking about the financial positions and risk analysis. You only need to look at IAGs share price to know that the smart money is being removed. Several other mining companies in West Africa have had share price meltdowns in the past few days, partly driven by Ebola. If it comes to that, there will be a financial market collapse, and Gold will go up (it's already been rising this past week).

Ebola has an incubation period of 21 days. People aren't exactly going to be honest in admitting they may have come into contact with an Ebola victim when arriving in Europe, no matter how many questions are asked of them.

Trader
10th Oct 2014, 08:32
vfenext---complete opposite actually! No tin foil hats here. The fact is the rich and the bankers are wealthy because they know how to make money and protect it.

You can be sure if the bankers are working to protect themselves it is based on sound evidence. FOX et el are too busy pontificating to see what may happen.

fliion
10th Oct 2014, 08:54
VFE

Below is a link to the leading story on the BBC website today. The source is the WHO.

www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29563530

This is not good.

I think the banker I talked to knew his stuff. What really concerned me was the reference to "frenzied meetings" & the worst case India factor that they believe will materialize.

He left me in no doubt that SHOULD it go that way - all our lives are going to change.

f.

Kenai
10th Oct 2014, 09:34
I think the banker I talked to knew his stuff. What really concerned me was the reference to "frenzied meetings" & the worst case India factor that they believe will materialize.


What worst case India factor? Going by past experience ...SARS, MERS...none of them have affected India in any way as to cause an epidemic.

The only trouble I see is that health care workers from Philippines and India working in the ME do get exposed to such issues. However the last time I flew to both these countries i saw medical teams at the airports scanning the inbound pax. I did not see that in European airports however. (only seen some reports in the media that soon such checks will be in place)

I see more risk to Europe in the current situation especially from the French speaking colonies in West Africa.

FLYDHC8
10th Oct 2014, 09:43
The biggest risk it poses is getting into mega-cities like Lagos.
17-21 million people (depending on whose population estimates you believe) living in very close proximity, poorly equipped health systems and lack of public education on how to contain it.
The disease itself is not really a first world threat - the economic flow-on effects may be.
The current hysteria in the US is laughable.
Ebola is it's own worst enemy - it is so lethal, and transmission via bodily fluids is not as effective as via aerosol.

Tartare:

Where have you been? It's already been in Lagos and they were able to contain it with a total of 20 reported cases (8 deaths and 12 people cured including the index case of the Liberian man who brought it into Lagos). At the moment, Nigeria has no reported case of Ebola.

tartare
10th Oct 2014, 10:15
I hardly think that amount of cases constitutes it getting into Lagos in any great numbers.
I note that they're claiming they've contained it.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/10/nigeria-ebola-cdc
Good luck.
I wouldn't put too much weight on the wisdom of bankers either.
The people so smart that they fvcked the global economy.
Ebola is not the threat to the West it is being made out to be in the media hysteria we are witnessing - it's not aerosol borne.
Unless you get the blood, sweat, tears, urine or any other bodily fluids into a mucus membrane or open cut on your skin, you will not catch it.

FLYDHC8
10th Oct 2014, 13:03
It's no claim, if you doubt it you can confirm with the W.H.O.

My point is that it has gotten into Lagos and it was contained so if there is any doubt if they have the ability to contain it, I guess they have been able to prove that. The difference with Nigeria is that the citizens seem to understand how serious this is and they are cooperating with authorities and that is why it didn't get worse than this. Don't forget that what we are witnessing now with the other three countries started from just one case of Ebola.

fliion
10th Oct 2014, 14:23
Whether or not it's contained is one thing.

But that will be irrelevant if 'eight cases' get reported in Dubai - the tourist/conference season will collapse the minute it hits the Euro newspapers. And that will affect ME pilots.

Not saying that's a rational response - but that's Joe Public for you. "Why risk it when we have other options"

f.

pilotday
11th Oct 2014, 12:48
Just flew with a guy that claimed those "Yanks" engineered Ebola as a form of biological warfare.

I asked him if he thought the moon landing was staged on a Hollywood set, of course, he said Yes!

wow

Unfortunately, We forget to complete the Chemtrail checklist.

FlyingCroc
11th Oct 2014, 13:14
Yep, he was right, the moon landing were staged.

onetrack
11th Oct 2014, 15:04
The banker and his cronies are just spreading rumours so they can upset the markets and make a killing. Nothing like wildly fluctuating markets and commodity prices for bankers to make a killing.

Let's just go back a little less than 100 years. The world suffered from a pandemic that makes Ebola look like chicken pox. It was called the Spanish Influenza and it killed somewhere between 3% and 5% of the worlds population.
More people died from Spanish 'Flu than were killed in the whole of WW1. In one year, Spanish 'Flu killed more people than 4 years of the Black Death did (Bubonic Plague - 1347-1351).
The Spanish 'Flu infected a fifth of the worlds population. A cure for Spanish 'Flu was unknown, and there was no reliable treatment for it.

No country was spared - not even the remote ones. Vast numbers of people caught the Spanish Flu - including both my mother and father.
They both survived, as did a lot of others who caught it.
Regardless - the world kept running, and the markets didn't crash, and neither did the worlds economies.

Ebola threatens airlines and airline travel more than anything, right about now. If infections increase, one of the first areas to suffer will be airline travel, as countries commence to restrict air travel, because it is the fastest and most guaranteed way of spreading Ebola world wide.

ItsMeFromEarth
11th Oct 2014, 15:55
We cannot compare the market 100 years ago with today's market, globalization, and mondialization didnot exist.

fliion
12th Oct 2014, 17:42
So now a health worker in Texas as well as Madrid - has contracted Ebola - and they are considered the most prepared of all, not to mention the they wore protective clothing. What about the people they live with - no medical clothing.

I'm sorry, a guy with a thermometer at an airport in Jeddah ain't gonna stop this.

Doubling every four weeks.

Prepare for incoming.

Again I'm not saying it can't be contained - but if the market gets ahold of the fact that's it's in the ME - profound implications for airline/hotels - which, let's face it, is all we have here.

I really hope this banker is wrong

f.

littlejet
12th Oct 2014, 18:12
What makes you think that the ME would be the only place which will collapse?
Thermometer in JED is the same as the one in JFK. From your posts it seems that you really looking forward to it.

fliion
12th Oct 2014, 19:54
Not at all , you are getting the wrong tone.

I have a lot vested here. NY has a robust & varied economic engine, Dubai does not.
Also I believe that the host nation of the CDC has (not withstanding the cluster inTX) the resources & expertise to handle it.
The region here does not

I guess the reason for my posts is - and I don't think it will happen - is that UAE should shut down W Africa flights.

The more dramatic the reaction is here the stronger the response

It's essentially (cue your posts & others) a non event

It's a wake the Fcuk up call and act drastically now - a la banker - before it hurts us all

f.

Capn Rex Havoc
13th Oct 2014, 04:11
I agree with fliion.

Thermometers will do nothing to stop the spread. The incubation period can be up to 21 days. So there is a good chance and infected person will slip passed undetected. Additionally, one has to be honest and write down that they have been to an Ebola affected country, now you are relying on individual honesty, and that is not going to cut the mustard.

I think cutting flight travel to these countries is the only way, to truly stop the spread until an effective vaccine can be developed.

airbusgirl66
13th Oct 2014, 04:37
If a person knew that they had been exposed to ebola, and resided in a country where there was no care left available due to the overwhelmed health care system (like Liberia). What makes us think that they would be honest on a questionnaire if they had the financial means and a way to fly to a country where they could get care, when it literally could be a matter of life or death for them.
I like to think most people are honest. But when faced with a potentially dire life-threatening situation, I'm not sure that honesty would prevail.

Macrohard
13th Oct 2014, 05:13
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/global_ebolaoutbreakrisk_20140818-1.png?ua=1

crewmeal
13th Oct 2014, 05:33
At this rate the map will probably be updated daily.

littlejet
13th Oct 2014, 07:10
It is the WHO who should make more aggressive approach in fighting the virus.
They are the one (overpaid) body authorized to shut down airports and stop movements. If big Airlines stop flying there on their own there will be half a dozen bottom feeders to fill the gap...
What we see on the news is more or less relaxed approach of treating the situation in West Africa. Strict quarantines, cremations, triage, police lock down serum development... nothing is happening. It is amazing that everybody knows how contagious the dead body is and yet they bury them in shallow graves few meters from the houses. And the burial teams...kitchen gloves and cough masks?!?!? WTF! The whole WHO should simply be remodeled after this. It seems that they expect it to die down on its own.
EBOLA is the poor and insignificant countries problem
As for the pharmaceutical titans, it is much more interesting and lucrative to develop a new fancy lowering cholesterol drug...

GlueBall
13th Oct 2014, 07:42
In the late 80s HIV was predicted to become a global calamity. - Meanwhile, populations have increased and people are still copulating.:ooh:

McNugget
13th Oct 2014, 08:01
It may not become a global epidemic, but I'm sure every international business is drawing up 'what if' plans. They'd be foolish not to. Growth rates of developing epidemics are exponential, so beyond a certain tipping point, it will have the whole world in fear.

Take a look at SARS in HK, for a brief glimpse of what it does to the market.

Aluminium shuffler
13th Oct 2014, 08:42
That map should have a pink tinted Spain and US, given their imported infected medical staff and deaths. So, if the WHO can't even report the high profile known cases correctly, then what hope of them knowing the real picture and what hope of them reporting it honestly even if they did know what was happening?

FUSE PLUG
13th Oct 2014, 21:05
Official: 5 Passengers With Flu-Like Symptoms Arrive on International Flight | NECN (http://www.necn.com/news/new-england/Hazmat-Crews-Surround-Flight-at-Boston-Logan-Airport-279041921.html)

Just now hit the press-wire in Boston.... EK237 lands: people dressed in astronaut gear remove 5 passengers with "flu-like symptoms".


I believe the panic is starting to spread rapidly. Is it purely paranoia, or could these types of events be more of a regular occurrence around the globe moving forward.

I suspect the latter, UFN.

FP

atcclears
13th Oct 2014, 22:27
NBC?s medical correspondent ?violated Ebola quarantine? | New York Post (http://nypost.com/2014/10/13/nbc-crew-ordered-under-mandatory-ebola-quarantine/)

"An NBC News crew was ordered under mandatory quarantine for possible Ebola infection after the network’s chief medical correspondent was allegedly spotted on a food run to a New Jersey restaurant, according to a report.

Dr. Nancy Snyderman and her crew had agreed to a voluntary quarantine when they returned to the United States from West Africa last week following their exposure to a cameraman who contracted the deadly virus.

But Snyderman, who lives in Princeton, NJ, was spotted outside the Peasant Grill in nearby Hopewell on Thursday afternoon..."

So, here you have a physician who should know better, and yet is out and about. :ouch:

The virus will continue to enter other countries AND continue to spread within those countries.

Here is an additional article where the World Health Organization warns that a male who survives Ebola can still infect others via his semen for approximately 90 days afterward.
Male Ebola survivors told: Use a condom (http://news.yahoo.com/male-ebola-survivors-told-condom-170136287.html)

How many guys are going to be that responsible after, or have the means to afford condoms?...

Emma Royds
13th Oct 2014, 23:18
Just now hit the press-wire in Boston.... EK237 lands: people dressed in astronaut gear remove 5 passengers with "flu-like symptoms".

Sounds like they had the Seafood Machbous then? :}