Russian incursions Finland

[effortless]

Apparently Finland is getting pretty peeved at the number of serious incursions. I hear that their Hornets are doing QRA sorties almost daily. Don't know how true but I have this from Finnish sources. Anyone know what is going on?

[Kluseau]

There's more here:

The Aviationist » Finland steps up air defense following airspace incursions by Russian planes (http://theaviationist.com/2014/09/01/finland-steps-up-air-defense-following-airspace-incursions-by-russian-planes/)

and here

Finland?s Fighter Jets on Alert as Russia Violates Airspace - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-28/finland-puts-fighter-planes-on-alert-as-russia-violates-airspace.html)

and here

Finland responds to airspace incidents | Barentsobserver (http://barentsobserver.com/en/security/2014/09/finland-responds-airspace-incidents-01-09)

[Typhoon93]

I wonder who will get tired of Russian aircraft illegally entering foreign airspace first?

Surely flying your military aircraft in to foreign airspace without authorisation could be construed as an act of war?

How would the rules of engagement work? Is a Q-pilot allowed to fire upon a foreign military aircraft that has illegally entered the airspace of that country after a set amount of time in that airspace?

[MPN11]

Does Putin have regular medical checks? He seems to have lost his marbles ... unless the reckons NATO and the US don't have the appetite or capability to do anything other than bark.

[500N]

unless the reckons NATO and the US don't have the appetite or capability to do anything other than bark.
They have the capability but they don't have the will or the balls.

He has read them both very well. They just don't know it.

[oldpax]

Let the intruder get as far as he wants then shoot him down before a tx can be made!You will soon know their intentions.

[Courtney Mil]

How would the rules of engagement work? Is a Q-pilot allowed to fire upon a foreign military aircraft that has illegally entered the airspace of that country after a set amount of time in that airspace?

It's a violation of International Law, but doesn't in itself give grounds for engagement. There has to be a threat to national security or committing a hostile act. I suspect the consequences of shooting down a Russian aircraft might outweigh the immediate sense of achievement.

It looks like someone is being deliberately provocative in order to flex their muscles. A response might be just the thing that Vlad's looking for.

[charliegolf]

Would airspace intruders be routinely 'locked-up' (I don't know the proper phrase), indicating to the intruder that he was a click away from a nasty shock? Or would that be construed as an act of war? I can't possibly see how it would, but this is 'the West'!

CG

[MPN11]

A cockpit "fanfare" of alerts of illumination by either SAM or AAM would tend to focus the mind ... but at the same time advertises capabilities, frequencies, response times. Which could well be the object of the exercise ;)

[Courtney Mil]

Locking up is not really an indication of intent. Apart from anything else, it's the best way to get accurate information about a "target" (radar target) for a lot of older radars. But it does send a message. And MPN is absolutely right about capability.

[sharpend]

Well Gary Powers flew into Russian (USSR) airspace and we know what happened to him. Then there was the 747 (Korean Airlines?) that genuinely strayed off course and was shot down. So my point is that Russia does not hesitate to react and thus would have absolutely no come back if one of her aircraft aircraft violated sovereign airspace once too often and paid the price.

But Russia will continue to do so until someone stands up to her.

[Kluseau]

You'd have thought that even our friends in the east would have worked out that annoying all your neighbours at the same time was not necessarily a great idea.

Unless the aim is to drive Finland into forging closer links with NATO this seems a pretty stupid thing to be doing.

[Courtney Mil]

and thus would have absolutely no come back if one of her aircraft aircraft violated sovereign airspace once too often and paid the price.

No comeback? Maybe no morally, but do you really want to commit an illegal act on the basis that they did it to Gary 54 years ago?

[melmothtw]

You know more about RoE than me Courtney so I accept what you say, but would it actually be 'illegal' to shoot down a foreign military aircraft that had entered your sovereign airspace with perceived hostile intentions (as opposed to UK QRA interceptions of Bears etc that take place in international airspace)?

[Stanwell]

Just another attempted distraction by a crowd (not just Mr P. himself) who are rapidly running out of ideas.

This would have all the makings of a good stage show if it wasn't so potentially serious.

We are not amused.

[Courtney Mil]

Generally speaking, Mel, yes, it would be illegal. The RoE (based in international law, but not the same thing as international law) have to account for aircraft that are diverting with an emergency, unintentionally off course, defecting or even on an approved mission (possibly unknown to the mil in attendance). For the same reason (as an example) an aircraft dropping parachutists may not meet RoE as enemy soldiers as it could be a crew bailing out. Tricky things, RoE.

Time for a strongly-worded letter to the Times, Stanwell.

[teeteringhead]

unless the reckons NATO and the US don't have the appetite or capability to do anything other than bark. I've often thought (and nearly wrote my Staff College Paper on the subject) that in International diplomacy, Russia/USSR plays chess, while the US plays poker.

Discuss. ;)

[Courtney Mil]

What does the UK play? Solitaire?

[AnglianAV8R]

Did those darn Ruskies violate Finnish territorial airspace or just fly in their FIR unannounced ? Big difference between the two.

Gosh, shocking if they really did intrude territorial airspace. We would never do that sort of thing.

Would we ? :hmm:

[air pig]

CM, at the risk of being 'moded', just with itself.

[Courtney Mil]

Yes, good point, AP. I was just trying to think of a less grown-up game, to be honest.

[Biggus]

Ludo........?

[effortless]

Oh come on, ukkers of course. Ludo, who ever heard of such a thing?

[Out Of Trim]

No, "Strip Poker"

Strip our Forces of it's assets and pretend we haven't taken any capability holidays!

How's your poker face Prime Minister? :{

[Hangarshuffle]

The "West" had a large civil airliner shot down by the Russian military only six weeks ago and nothing came of it, or probably ever will - the "story" has gone cold. Finland isn't in NATO but I very much doubt even if it was much would change on the incursion front - NATO is a large sprawling organization which has diluted and soured like a flat beer in the last 20 years, hardly breathing compared to the beast it once was.
Face it, it looks a lot less the organization it was, with much more sheepish people at its head.
In comparison, Putin looks very sure of his game and his hand of cards. Maybe he actually wants a minor combat to test the western water further. Nobody gives a tuppenny**** about when UK aircraft bomb, or go into combat btw abroad, and will be less even more if Finnish aircraft and Russian tangle.
London FTSE 100 is 6825 tonight, no fear factor for the city and reflective that nobody is even giving a shiver about it..

[500N]

Maybe he actually wants a minor combat to test the western water further.

Versus the west / NATO or someone else ?

He is getting the someone else in the Ukraine.

[Hangarshuffle]

Test our response? Will it be a weak 1938 or a ill judged 1939 again? Provoke a panic to crash the stock markets in response to the sanctions?
Or a basic old fashioned put the frighteners on people? Balls in Putins court.

[Typhoon93]

I suspect the consequences of shooting down a Russian aircraft might outweigh the immediate sense of achievement.

A bit like they did with a Malaysian aircraft?

[rh200]

Putin is not insane, I said a while ago, mind you that was in reference to China, there are many paths to achieve the same ends. You can go down the old fashioned dominate take what you want path. or you can do the hard yards and trade and sacrifice over a long period of time.

Whilst China has done very well out of the system at this point, it may well not in the future hence other means may be needed. Russia on the other hand appears to be stagnant, and the dominate take what it wants path seems easier.

@500

Yes Putin knows what we will do, and that is nothing. Its not that we don't see that, we know that and are just going though the motions of reacting.

As for airspace incursions, some discrimination needs to be done to work out whats happening here instead of jumping the gun. There are particular statistical probabilities it could all be a coincidence.

[effortless]

Russia and China getting friendly again. Nice market for gas so sanctions less of a problem. Hmm, now let me see. China and Russia cooperating militarily. This includes sigint and cyber. Could be a whole new game of marbles.

[Pontius Navigator]

Curiously, in certain circumstances, dropping bombs is not a hostile act either.

CM will know what I mean :)

[NutLoose]

Russia and China getting friendly again. Nice market for gas so sanctions less of a problem.


Except that knowing they had him over a barrel, the Chinese were able to get the deal of the century and purchase the gas at a fraction over what it costs Russia to produce it. He might have made a deal, but he's not reaping much benefit from it.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/21/russia-30-year-400bn-gas-deal-china

Alexei Miller, chief executive officer of Gazprom, said the price of gas under the contract, which was reportedly agreed at 4am Beijing time, was a commercial secret, but it is estimated to be over $400bn.

By all indications, the Chinese managed to achieve a lower price than the Russians had wanted, and the deal will mean a loss for Russia, at least for the first several years after operations start in 2018.

According to Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister who is director of the Moscow-based Institute of Energy Policy, the Russian government wanted to open new markets in reaction to increasingly hostile relations with the west over the Ukraine crisis. Whereas the US and the EU have threatened economic sanctions against Russia, China has refused to take a side in the conflict and remains more independent from US pressure than other large economies.

"Putin is ready to diversify gas supplies at any expense because he considers it geopolitically important," Milov said.

[Courtney Mil]

True, PN. But I wouldn't try it over Russia. :eek:

[Fareastdriver]

Russia and China getting friendly again. Nice market for gas so sanctions less of a problem.

I was in Shanghai when these negotiations were going on. Putin was in Shanghai on a diplomatic visit and he instructed his Gazprom team to have a deal in place before he left next day.

Unfortunately for the Russians the Chinese found out. They stretched it on and on until at 04.00 hrs. the Russians capitulated.

As Nutloose says, it's going to be a long time before it shows a profit and the Chinese have just started experimenting with fracking in their extensive coal fields.

[ValMORNA]

Fareastdriver,



Quote: Unfortunately for the Russians the Chinese found out. Unquote


Surely you aren't suggesting that, somehow, the Chinese knew of the Sword of Damo-Putin hanging over the head of Gazprom? (Damned ingenious, these Chinese!)

[finncapt]

An englishman in Finland's perspective.

As I recall all this started a couple of months ago when a Russian military transport en route from St Petersburg? To Kalingrad? deviated north of track.

Looking from my pilot's eye point of view, it looked like a navigational cock up - wrong waypoint entered - and, when the guys looking out the front realised it, there was an abrupt change of course.

At this time of the year there is the annual budget discussion.

There has been lots of talk recently about how much defence costs in Finland and, I think, this is being played up to ensure the military gets a large slice of this budget.

There is also a general election next March?

The current defence minister is a member of one of the smaller government coalition parties and there may be a bit of posturing ahead of that.

Nice to here the odd hornet fly over my house, 10miles out on the south westerly runway at Helsinki Vantaa, from time to time though.

[ORAC]

New Finnish Government Raises NATO Stakes (http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/warfare/2015/05/24/finland-new-government-nato-membership-russia-sweden-tension-ukraine-baltic/27710113/)

HELSINKI — In a move that is certain to further irritate Moscow, Finland's new center-right coalition has included the option of applying for NATO membership "at any time" in its government formation Joint Policy Position statement. Moreover, in an unprecedented initiative, Prime Minister-elect Juha Sipilä's administration is set to draft a foreign and security policy that will include a special segment to calculate the potential monetary costs and implications of full Finnish membership in NATO.

The Kremlin has expressed growing consternation over the deepening relationship between Finland, Sweden and NATO.

That Finland will retain the option to apply for NATO membership during the government's four-year term has somewhat surprised the Kremlin, which believed that the inclusion of the nationalist and traditionally anti-NATO Finns Party in the new coalition would cool interest in joining the Western alliance. However, the Finns constitute the junior partner in the government, which also includes the robustly pro-NATO National Coalition Party (NCP). The Center and the NCP will be the key players dictating defense and security policy going forward.

The "NATO option" and the new government's decision to conduct a root and branch cost and effect analysis of NATO membership represent milestones in the evolution of Finland's historically neutral foreign and security policies.

"The geopolitical landscape has changed in the Nordic and Baltic areas since Russia became involved in Ukraine. The important issue of whether Finland will remain non-aligned or join NATO is a question for the future and a possible referendum. It is important to maintain the option of NATO membership," said Alexander Stubb, the NCP's party chairman In the interim, the NCP, which led the previous conservative-left government, favors moving the Finnish Armed Forces (FAF) closer to NATO by intensifying cooperation within the Partnership for Peace framework, while expanding near-neighborhood exercises with NATO forces.

In a decision welcomed by the FAF's command, the new government's Joint Policy Position backs a comprehensive review of future spending on defense. In addition, the government plans to produce a defense strategy report to define policy guidelines for the maintenance, development and use of Finland's conscript-based system, which is currently organized along total defense structures. In a parallel initiative, the new government plans to amend legislation to permit military- and national security-run surveillance programs to collect signals intelligence outside Finnish borders and in communications passing through Finnish territory.

Unlike the earlier four-party conservative-left administration, all three partners in the new coalition support increasing the FAF's annual budgets in 2016-2025, with a particular focus on strengthening the military's procurement capability ahead of big ticket purchases, including the acquisition of a new fighter type and up to 64 aircraft to replace aging F/A-18 Hornets.

The government is embarking on a defense and security policy direction new to Finnish politics and strategic defense planning, said Teija Tiilikainen, the director of the Finnish Institute for International Affairs. "The previous government made sure that it did not apply for NATO membership during its time in office. The new government's policy is different, it keeps the issue alive and the option open. It will be interesting to see how all this develops," Tiilikainen said.

Security tensions caused by Russia in Ukraine and the Baltic Sea region is the primary driver of the changes in Finnish policy. The regional security environment has worsened considerably, and in a more unpredictable way, over recent years and especially since Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, said Kari Sundström, a Stockholm-based political analyst. "

The Finnish center-right government's elevated interest in NATO is linked to a desire to build a stronger overall national defense capability through cost and task sharing. The appraisal and implications side of the planned investigation will help Finland determine, in a much more accurate way, the likely value of NATO membership," Sundström said Entry costs for Finland, in terms of compatibility of training and equipment, may require a bigger defense budget at the beginning, said Sundström. "In reality, much of the Finnish defense forces' equipment and training is already of a NATO-standard," he said.

Finland's more security conscious mood is also fueling political movement on possible NATO membership, Sundström said. "Finnish membership in NATO was never discussed as a serious or immediate option as part of public debate until two years ago. It is now a hot topic. All recent polls show that Finns are becoming increasingly concerned about Russian aggression in the region and want a stronger defense. Finns also want a higher level of spending for the military. Although majority backing for NATO membership is still lacking, over 55 percent of Finns support the holding of a referendum to decide the issue," Sundström said.

The immediate need for increased capital spending on defense was identified by a special government-appointed parliamentary working group last September. Chaired by Ilkka Kanerva, the group proposed incrementally increasing the defense budget by US $170 million annually. "The review we carried out advocated regular reviews of index increases to defense spending. It did not include spending on major material acquisitions for the Army, Navy and Air Force. This element of future budgeting will need to be addressed by the new government," Kanerva said.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has made no secret of his desire to see Sweden and Finland join fellow Nordic states Denmark and Norway in NATO. In April, Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, outlined ambitions and plans to expand joint exercises and increase information-sharing between Swedish and Finnish armed forces and NATO, particularly in the high-tension area of the Baltic Sea.

NATO's offer of deeper collaboration with Sweden and Finland happens against a backdrop of increasing unease over airspace violations by Russian aircraft and the detection of suspect "foreign" submarines and heightened underwater activity in Swedish and Finnish territorial waters. The Finnish Navy dropped low-impact depth charges in the waters off Helsinki harbor at the end of April after its surveillance network detected unidentified "objects" off the near coast. The Swedish Navy has conducted similar "sub hunt" operations over recent months.

The incident off Helsinki harbor has reinforced the Finnish government's resolve to dispatch troops and naval assets to NATO's US-led BALTOPS naval and amphibious exercises in the Baltic Sea in June. Sweden is also participating.

[BEagle]

EX. ARCTIC CHALLENGE 2015 kicks off today in Scandiwegia - it will involve some 100 aircraft from Finland, Norway and Sweden plus the UK, US, France Germany, the Netherlands and Switzerland...

Based mainly at Bodø in Norway, Rovaniemi in Finland, and Kallax in Sweden, it is quite a large-scale exercise which will no doubt get the attention of Uncle Vlad.....

[rh200]

no doubt get the attention of Uncle Vlad.....

Surprised its not being thrown around in the Soviet, oops Russia by Tsar Putin as further proof of NATO's evil expansionist policys.:p

[MPN11]

It certainly adds to the Russian perception of "We are surrounded by the enemies of Socialism". And this is potentially going to lead to a back-lash from the Kremlin, whether it was a miscalculation on their part or not.

As Captain Darling wrote in his diary, "Bu66er" :hmm:

[NutLoose]

What does the UK play? Solitaire?

Musical chairs?
Blind mans buff?
Pin the tail on the Donkey?

I was reading an article re the size of our military today and it was brought into context in that the New York Police Dept is now bigger than the whole of the UK's forces.

[pax britanica]

Ah the twists and turns of global strategy.

I would have thought NATO, or more precisely their leading members, best approach at the moment would try and build informal links on military strategy with China so the Ruskies would have to face both ways.

Being a paranoid lot anyway that ought to keep them on an even keel after all they face USA Pop 380M , EU/NATO 400M and China 1.5Bn vs Russia 160M and not many friends of their own except a 'Stan or two.

Of course if Britain leaves the EU we will save enough money on benefits for Roumanians and contributions to Brussels that we will be able to reopen the production lines for Spitfires and build some Tribal Class destroyers so will have nothing to fear anyway. Hang on both those things need these engineer chappies don't they ? God this stuff is a bit more complicated than hedge funds...

[AreOut]

China is balancing between two sides and profiting from both.

"Of course if Britain leaves the EU we will save enough money on benefits for Roumanians"

is it politically incorrect to write their nationality wrong way?

[Laarbruch72]

About as politically incorrect (or plain incorrect) as suggesting they're all on benefits. It's extremely hard (nigh on impossible) to claim anything as an EU economic migrant.
Families from Somalia and those council estate terminally lazy families, now that's different.

[pax britanica]

I am sure you realise that was tongue in cheek and written with the Daily Mail style of reporting. However I confess to spelling Romania wrongly , in my defence I will say that I have just returned from the Czech republic and having barely seen a vowel all week over compensated by adding one to the much maligned East European country on the Black Sea

[Heathrow Harry]

Romanians think they are in CENTRAL Europe - Eastern is Ukraine, Moldova and other sunny spots in their eyes

[teeteringhead]

New York Police Dept is now bigger than the whole of the UK's forces And the Met Police is bigger than the RN and about the size of the RAF ........... :(