Iceland volcano eruption risk level raised for aviation

[101BOY]

Iceland volcano eruption risk level raised to orange for aviation

Intense seismic activity at the Bardarbunga volcano indicates the potential for a disruptive ash event similar to 2010

Iceland volcano eruption risk level raised to orange for aviation | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/18/iceland-volcano-risk-raised-to-orange)

[tripilot]

Bárðarbunga - looks a bit angry! Heads up everyone!

[TopBunk]

See also Vatnajökull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours (Preliminary results) | Vatnajökull | Earthquakes - all regions | Seismicity | Icelandic Meteorological office (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/)

[Triskelle]

Also interesting to look at the tremor measurements nearby at http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/oroi/grf.gif

[farefield]

Well,at least they're easier to say!

[Gargleblaster]

Here's some help on the pronounciation :-)

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/19/how_to_pronounce_bardarbunga/

[Nemrytter]

Easyjet were testing an Infrared detection system, not LiDAR.

[Skyjob]

Fortunately aviation has progressed since 2010 in not closing all airspace but only areas likely affected.
Similarly airlines have put into place procedures for flight planning and in-flight re-planning for these events which caused so much havoc in 2010.

Let us hope the progression of measures combined by all parties enables minimal disruption this time around if/when it happens.

[Volume]

Let us hope that after finding out in 2010, that stopping all air trafic is much too conservative, we do not find out this time that just avoiding the most poluted areas is not safe enough...
It would be more than typical that after an overreaction the next time there will be not enough reaction. It typically needs several oscilations around the optimum to find it.

[Pace]

The last time was a ridiculous fiasco with computer generated prediction flows which were totally inaccurate and for what?

You would think that Volcanic eruptions was something new like some unknown new virus that is plaguing the earth.

volcanic eruptions and volcanic ash has happened in different parts of the world since aviation begun.

There has never been a fatality in the history of aviation although there have been close calls flying into thick dense ash easily visible to the eye in daylight while flying in clear air.

The same excellent safety record regarding volcanic ash cannot be attributed to bird strikes which have killed people.

Yet we do not see bird tracking predictions in the migration season with big chunks of airspace closed down

[B Fraser]

The BA 747 that went into a cloud at night over Jakarta is enough of a warning for anyone. Flying the aircraft with shot-blasted windscreen panels was "like trying to navigate one's way up a badger's @rse without a torch". Captain Moody and crew were terrific. Google the story and you will be amazed.

In the recent eruption, the Finns (mad as a box of frogs) intentionally flew a jet into the cloud, the results were not pretty.

[Pace]

Fraser

Obviously if you fly into thick dense volcanic ash there will be a problem
we have all seen the towering cumulous like black dense clouds of ash billowing out of a volcano.

As with any particles in clear air whether moisture or volcanic ash they are visible in day light in clear air in the form of clouds or mist.

The argument as before is how dense does that ash need to be to risk the safety of an aircraft and its occupants?

As stated in the history of aviation going back to times when there was not the technology available today there has never been a fatality cause by an intrusion into ash.

the same cannot be said for bird strikes which have bought aircraft down.
One is perceived risk the other demonstrated risk.

[Volume]

volcanic ash has happened in different parts of the world since aviation begunSince the beginning of aviation engines have developed quite a bit. Pressure ratio and hence peak temperature have increased significantly since the De Havilland Ghost (actually the other way round, higher temperature capability of modern material has allowed the pressure ratio to increase, but temperature is the critical parameter when discussing melting ash). Modern engines depend on electronics and sensors, readings out of the normal due to clogged pressure sensors or contaminated temperature probes will trigger a shutdown or run the engine out of its intended parameters which will not improve its performance and life. Modern engines have highly sophisticated internal air cooling of some turbine blades through tiny holes, which may clogg. Modern engines internal aerodynamics are cutting edge technology these days, they do not take that much of molten lava in the turbine as older models.
But nobody knows the exact limits. There are no requirements, there are no standards. There is not even standard ash available, every vulcano is different.
So it is fine to be a bit conservative, but 2010 was far over the top. The 2014 statistics is already poor, we do not need another airliner in the dust (or the ocean).

[B Fraser]

.... wot Volume said.

The ash particles have a low melting point and when they stick to film cooled blades, do not make for a happy outcome.

There's more here...

BBC News - Scientists assess flight risks from Iceland volcano ash (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8629609.stm)

[ShyTorque]

B Fraser,

That four year old article was aimed (I would hope) at the general public and not at professional pilots who, if not in 2010, by now should already have an understanding of the issue. The reaction by the authorities four years ago smacked of a panic from ignorance.

:ok:

[Nemrytter]

As with any particles in clear air whether moisture or volcanic ash they are visible in day light in clear air in the form of clouds or mist.Ash layers are not always visible in daylight, it's possible for them to be completely invisible - as happened in some areas after the 2010 eruption.
The last time was a ridiculous fiasco with computer generated prediction flows which were totally inaccurate and for what?As far as I remember the modelled ash dispersal was actually reasonably accurate. The concentrations were not.
There has never been a fatality in the history of aviation although there have been close calls flying into thick dense ash easily visible to the eye in daylight while flying in clear air.There's never been a fatality associated with flying a widebody aircraft inverted under the Sydney Harbour Bridge either...but that doesn't mean we should try it.

'This has never happened' is a terrible argument to use, just because something has not happened thus far is no guarantee that it will not happen in the future.

[B Fraser]

Here's an article more fitting for you Mr ShyTorque. ;)

http://www.imeche.org/docs/default-source/reports/IMechE_Volcanic_Ash_Report.pdf

[ZOOKER]

It's O.K. avoiding the possibly detectable pyroclastic cloud, but what about the invisible volatiles?
Hydrogen Flouride, Hydrogen Sulphide, Boron, Argon, and Hydrogen Chloride, (to name but a few), cannot be good news for the engines or the respiratory systems of the crew and pax.

[B Fraser]

Argon isn't volatile. You are breathing about 0.9% argon at the moment with no ill effects.

I suspect you meant something else. ;)

[ShyTorque]

B Fraser, your link leads to a document which seems to counter your own argument!

The most alarming of these encounters, involving temporary engine failure, have naturally received disproportionate publicity. But the fact that only 10 such incidents have been recorded in 26 years gives an indication of their rarity. Although few quantitative details are available, it is clear that the most serious incidents have all occurred in the 'soup' relatively near the volcano.
A well documented example occured on 15 December 1989 when a KLM Boeing 747-400 encountered flameout of its engines due to ash when flying near an eruption of Mount Redoubt in Alaska[16]. The damage was estimated to have cost some US $80m to repair. There was 80kg of ash in each turbine and the calculated ash density was 2g/m3. Given the air ingestion rate above and if all the ingested ash was retained, then 62/3 minutes exposure would have been sufficient to collect 80kg. However for the limiting density on which the no fly ban was initiated, 4mg/m3, only 160g would have been ingested, emphasising the huge range of densities from the flame out magnitude down to the level of the flying ban.
But safety is not the only consideration. In 2007, it was stated that[17] “the economic cost of volcanic ash to international civil aviation is staggering. This involves numerous complete engine changes, engine overhauls, airframe refurbishing, window re-polishing and/or replacement and pitot-static system repair, etc., and the inevitable loss of revenue due to aircraft down-time while the foregoing is accomplished. Delays to aircraft and their rerouting around volcanic ash has caused considerable expense to airlines operating in regions prone to volcanic eruptions. Also to be included is the cost of volcanic ash clearance from airports and the damage caused to equipment and buildings on the ground. Various estimates have been made, most citing costs to aviation well in excess of $250 million since 1982”.
These figures are small compared with recent estimates of the cost of the 2010 disruption, "EU Transport Commissioner Siim Kallas said the economic impact of the weeklong crisis had caused losses of estimated between a1.5–a2.5 billion"[18].

That paragraph is quite telling.

The disproportionate reaction of the authorities in banning all movements by air caused far more disruption and loss than the volcano would have if everything had been left as it was.

Don't forget, all flying was stopped, i.e. recreational and other forms of private aviation, not just that of airliners, which, it could be argued, are most likely to be badly affected.

[fulham fan]

'all flying was stopped even private flying' err no it wasn't. I think you'll find there was quite a bit of GA around enjoying using bits of airspace in the UK that are normally not the easiest to access.

[B Fraser]

I remember it well as I had to drive home from a trip. That was fun !

The relevant point is that it is not easy to see volcanic ash in the dark. The sensible answer would appear to sit somewhere between what happened last time and doing nothing.

[ShyTorque]

The relevant point is that it is not easy to see volcanic ash in the dark. The sensible answer would appear to sit somewhere between what happened last time and doing nothing.

I would agree with that.

[Maoraigh1]

The best link for updated explanations of the situation at the volcano I've found: Iceland geology | Volcano and earthquake activity in Iceland (http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/)

[Aluminium shuffler]

I find it troubling how many supposedly educated, professional pilots still can't grasp that the reason for such a severe clamp down last time was not just because modern aircraft are designed to tighter limits than old, the technology changing as much as its susceptibility tot he ash, but more critically that the highly idiosyncratic circumstances of the eruption made the ash particularly hard to observe and simultaneously particularly threatening to engines. Comparisons to other events only serve to demonstrate those individuals' lack of comprehension of the technical elements of the event. Equally troubling is their blind dismissal of the tests carried out by several military aircraft which were subsequently found to have significant engine deposits and damage.

[Basil]

There's a HUGE difference between flying yer wee Cessna and operating a civil jet transport carrying fare paying passengers when there's a chance of running into volcanic ash.
My off the cuff judgement? If it's going to be on track, don't go.

[Pace]

It was a complete mess up scientists as well hence why RyanAir reacted the way they did and did their own thing.
There has to be confidence in the science and frankly there was none.
as stated in the history of aviation no one has been killed flying into volcanic ash while many have been killed by bird strikes

[mixture]

no one has been killed flying into volcanic ash

Well of course, but the nature of fixed-wing aircraft is to glide anyway....:E

However, your "history of aviation" doesn't have enough data to tell you what damage you can do to rather expensive engines ! Nor does it tell you the extent to which ash/dust can contaminate other areas through its ingress.

[Nemrytter]

It was a complete mess up scientists as well hence why RyanAir reacted the way they did and did their own thing.
There has to be confidence in the science and frankly there was none.
What makes you say that? as I said in my previous post the dispersion models didn't do too badly. Just because you don't have confidence in the science does not make it incorrect - it could be that you are, in fact, incorrect.

[henry_crun]

webcam:

Bárðarbunga (http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga)

[Triskelle]

In 2010 the dispersion models actually worked very well. The concentration measurements that were taken verified the model results. The main problem at the time was that engine and airframe manufactures and ICAO had not developed standards relating specific particle concentrations to likely damage (or not), so the initial reaction was to prohibit flying where there was any non-zero predicted level - hence the large 'prohibited areas'. Hopefully there will have been some research since 2010 to enable more considered decisions to be made if required in 2014?

[Pace]

I think the permitted level was something equivalent to a thimble full of ash in a volume equivalent to a 4 bedroom house :ugh: and yes a lot more research needed to be done rather than picking figures out of the sky.
There are two aspects
Firstly the density of ash likely to stop an aircraft flying and endangering lives
The density over a prolonged period of time which will diminish engine life and the financial implications

Pace

[mad_jock]

Pace when you think how much air gets sucked into a jet engine every second and then look out how big the turbine blades are and how little of the contaminate is required to severely reduce there efficiency. Never mind the fact that minute quantities are required to block the cooling holes that run through them which if block means the blades over heat and burn up.

Actually its rather a lot.


I am very happy that the choice about flying has been given to professional engineers and out of the hands of airlines and pilots.

As this thread has showed pilots are pretty clueless about the risks involved. And the goat blowers in commercial have even less than the pilots.

[Yamagata ken]

Part of the problem at the time was the weather. From memory, there was a stationary high pressure system sitting over the NE Atlantic, and stuff was going round and round, rather than the air mass clearing to the east. I remember it well as I was working with my brother building a shed in his back garden. Putting the roof on I got slightly sunburned. In the UK in April!

[pilotmike]

@Pace I think the permitted level was something equivalent to a thimble full of ash in a volume equivalent to a 4 bedroom house

Possibly the ratio you were referring to was the May 2010 CAA revised limit of 4 mg per cubic metre of air, which equates to aprox 1g of ash per 250 cubic metres, (roughly the equivalent of your 4 bedroomed house example).

To help give this apparently insignificant figure better context, consider that a modern aircraft engine (with 118" fan diameter) has an intake fan area of about 7 m^2. When travelling at 250kts (aprox 125 m/s) this will ingest AT LEAST 875 cubic metres of air per second by virtue of mere 'ram air' effects, without any consideration for the significantly greater volume actually drawn in due to induction when producing thrust.

This is equivalent to ingesting around 4 grammes of ash as a minimum, EACH SECOND, or a WHOLE KILO of the stuff every 4 minutes. The reality is the figure would be considerably more for the reasons given above.

Given the significantly lower melting point of the clogging constituents of the ash than the turbine temperatures, I would certainly not wish to be the subject of live experiments with such quantities of ash in any engine that was keeping my backside from hitting the ground!

[cldrvr]

I am no expert, but the quakes are getting stronger, more frequent, shallower and closer to BungaBunga. According to the table we have had 4 over 3.0 since midnight for the first time this week.

Don't know if we can draw any significant conclusions or guesses from that, I will leave that to the seismologists.

[Lurking_SLF]

This report from the NASA DC-8 should also be relevant...

http://www.alpa.org/portals/alpa/volcanicash/03_nasadc8ashdamage.pdf

I don't think anybody would want to fly with engines like that for too long

Lurking...

[Severe Clear]

Nicarnica Aviation (http://nicarnicaaviation.com)

Note the equipment recently delivered to Iceland.

[Pace]

I am no expert, but the quakes are getting stronger, more frequent, shallower and closer to BungaBunga. According to the table we have had 4 over 3.0 since midnight for the first time this week.

We have had a north westerly airflow from Iceland which would give a problem if it blew that airflow is supposed to change on Sunday :ok: Also it has not blown since 1910? So fingers crossed it goes back to sleep again

[tdracer]

There are two fundamental problems with flying in volcanic ash:

a) We don't have a good method of determining where it is and at what concentration, and
b) We don't have a good understanding of at what concentration it becomes hazardous to aircraft.

Bird strikes can be (and have been) a problem - so there are standards and regulations. Manufactures need to demonstrate that their aircraft/engines can deal with a defined bird strike threat before they can be certified.
No one has ever done a test on a high bypass jet engine to determine at what concentration ash becomes a problem. We know the ~1gram/cubic meter that the KLM 747 experienced was a big problem. But what about 1 milligram/meter, or 1 microgram/meter? And how sensitive are different engines - would a concentration that was OK for a 1970s JT9D be OK for 21st century GEnx (or visa-versa)?
No one knows, and no one is willing to fund the necessary investigations and developments (at least so far). So for the time being, the only viable answer is complete avoidance.

[Severe Clear]

If you are interested in the difficulties and complexity of the science involved in seeking and gathering data from volcanic activity take a little time and read the article:

Characterization and interpretation of volcanic activity at Karymsky Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, using observations of infrasound, volcanic emissions, and thermal imagery - Lopez - 2013 - Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems - Wiley Online Library (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GC004817/full)


You have free access to this content:

Characterization and interpretation of volcanic activity at Karymsky Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia, using observations of infrasound, volcanic emissions, and thermal imagery.
Authors.
Taryn Lopez, David Fee, Fred Prata, andJonathan Dehn
Article first published online: 11 DEC 2013

DOI: 10.1002/2013GC004817

©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

[Severe Clear]

data sites:

Iceland METEROLOGICAL :
Home-page - Icelandic Meteorological Office | Icelandic Meteorological office (http://en.vedur.is)

"The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) is a public institution under the auspices of the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources, historically based on the Icelandic Meteorological Office (1920) and the Icelandic Hydrological Survey (1948)." It handles all geological surveys and studies.

I was surprised at the level of understanding of the science and public policy process posted earlier. The following sites can help provide the interested, science sources and public policy concerning volcanic monitoring, plumes, and aviation and the challenges faced:

London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC)
London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC) - Met Office (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation/vaac/)

Icelandic Aviation Oceanic Area Control Center (English site):
About Isavia (http://www.isavia.is/english/about-isavia)

European alarm system for extreme weather:
Meteoalarm - severe weather warnings for Europe - Mainpage (http://meteoalarm.eu)

Monitoring Volcanic Plumes from Space:
Monitoring volcanic plumes from space - Met Office (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/volcanic-plumes)


Google mapping Icelandic earthquakes:
Skjálftar fyrir Google Earth (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/google/index.html)

United States Geological Survey site monitoring of Icelandic volcanos:
Iceland Earthquake Information (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/index.php?regionID=58)

Iceland Earthquake Information from U.S.G.S.:

Icelandic Meteorological Office, Physics Department
Maps:
Earthquakes - Iceland (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/)

Politcal Map of Iceland:
Iceland (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/iceland/map.php)

Seismicity Map of Iceland:
Iceland (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/iceland/seismicity.php)

Seismic Hazard Map of Iceland
Iceland (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/iceland/gshap.php)

Earthquake Density Map:
Iceland (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/iceland/density.php)

Recent Earthquakes

Recent Events:
Earthquakes (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/earthquakes.html)

Earthquakes in Iceland during the last 48 hours:
SIL automatic bulletin (http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/englishweb/eqlist.html)

[ZOOKER]

If, and only if, as has been suggested above, this an incipient caldera-collapse…..
As far as I'm aware, the collapse of a 10km wide sub-glacial caldera, on an active spreading-ridge, on top of a postulated 'mantle-plume', has not been tested during recent human history.

[mad_jock]

does that mean its going to be a big one Zooker?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1c/Mount_Mazama_eruption_timeline.PNG

That doesn't look good.

[ShyTorque]

So for the time being, the only viable answer is complete avoidance.

So how far do you take this? Volcanic activity is always present somewhere on earth, so volcanic material is always in the air, in unknown concentrations. The only complete avoidance is to stop all flying forever.

If flying visually, even light snow, tiny ice particles, wisps of cloud or fog, haze or smoke, such as that from coal fired power stations, can be seen and avoided; we do this routinely. If volcanic material were suspected to be present, common sense prevails.

A mandatory complete avoidance, such as occurred last time the Icelandic volcano erupted, is greatly over-cautious and a great over-reaction.

[ZOOKER]

Surely "the challenge" is to avoid the demise of aircrew, passengers and persons on the ground?

[mad_jock]

That is a challange that they have consistantly failed in avaition.

[BARKINGMAD]

3 winters based at Keflavik and I observed fine powder-the result of the lava grit spread for friction being ground fine by aircraft wheels- being hoovered into my CFM56s giving all the appearance of white smoke in the beam of the turnoff lights.

Icelandair, Wow and others are regular inhalers of this dust, so are their engines showing signs of ingestion/cooking of silica deposits etc?

Alas the company for whom I worked, now no longer trading, ignored my observation and refused to inspect for possible effects, so I was unable pursue the issue, so will any of the locally based airlines or the regular visitors wish to follow this up?

Ezy, d'ya copy?

[MrDK]

@ZOOKER
Surely "the challenge" is to avoid the demise of aircrew, passengers and persons on the ground?

... and equipment?.
IIRC some cancelations in 2010 were made by the airlines and with equipment damage or excessive wear in mind.
Someone in the business here may help refresh my memory.
To the extend that flights may endure increased maintenance costs in the short or long term as a result of volcano ash, who can blame a business from considering that in its overall decision makings.

[oldoberon]

Read today if this blows big style it has the potential to produce near nuclear winter for a few years, look on the bright side it will stop the climate gravy train like hitting the buffers in the station, but life could be very unpleasant in europe

Best hope at the moment is that the 25km trench causes a major venting, releasing much of the explosive energy.

[henry_crun]

...if this blows big style...

Bardarbunga is a stratovolcano, as was Krakatoa, and has the theoretical potential to blow big style. But if you read about Krakatoa, there was a preceding period of major earthquakes.

Bardarbunga has only got up to Richter 5 so far. We will most likely get a lot more warning with a period of major quakes before any major event.

But a Mount St Helens type minor bang is of course quite possible.

[Volume]

I observed fine powder-the result of the lava grit spread for frictionAs said before, lava is not just lava (it is like beer, maybe). There are all different types around and they are all different. Particle size and melting point seem to be the most relevant factors, but basically knowbody knows for sure, due lack of interest and leck of funding, hence no research.
Indeed so far the only way of dealing with it safely is avoidance.

[Pace]

No such standards exist for volcanic ash, no testing has been done to determine at what level the ash becomes a threat, and no reliable method exists to measure the ash threat real time. Faced with these known unknowns, there is no other choice but to be conservative.
The KLM 747 event came dangerously close to being catastrophic - likely resulting in a large loss of life. The investigation of the engines suggests that the reason they were able to get them restarted because the heat cycles from the repeated failed restart attempts caused some of the glass coatings in the turbine to breakup and be shed, allowing for a successful restart

Tdracer

There are a couple of points to consider? firstly the major events of intrusion into volcanic ash where the engines nearly failed completely were into dense volcanic ash clouds not prolonged flight in ash concentrates which are so low as to not be visible in daylight and out of moisture clouds.
Secondly while I appreciate prolonged flight into low density level ash could reduce engine life that then becomes a commercial consideration and not so much a safety consideration!
Where we do not appear to have answers is the density levels which will cause instant failure in the flight and hence a perceived threat to safety.
In most aviation safety regulating demonstrated safety holes are plugged this is perceived threat in the sense that there has been no loss of life throughout the course of aviation history.
I appreciate that had the engines not started that may not be the case now.
its a bit like regulating a reduced speed limit on a known stretch of road with a high fatality rate and regulating a speed limit where there have been no fatalities because the powers that be consider a set of bends may cause an accident in the future.
Both have merit but in this case we do not really have the data and hence have probably been too cautious in picking ash levels out of a hat rather than using proven scientific knowledge and fact.
Also remember the previous event was driven by the media, political pressure and public fear and politicians not scientists danced to that fear.

[118.70]

Anyone know if further research has been published since the BATA Volcanic Ash workshop last October which had this from Rolls Royce

http://www.bata.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Ash-5-Rory-Clarkson.pdf

and this from Airbus

http://www.bata.uk.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Harry-Nelson.pdf

The UK CAA seem to expect more advice out in 2014 :

June 2013 CAA Board Minutes :

https://www.caa.co.uk/docs/1743/CAABoardRedactedMinutesJun2013.pdf

7. In relation to volcanic ash, it was noted that Rolls Royce is planning to amend its advice to operators to remove the definition of visible ash as being that with actual ash concentration equal to or higher than 2mgm-3. While this is a disappointing development, Mr Haines reported that the current safety risk assessment approach would continue to apply in any future eruptions. It was highlighted that this would reinforce the need for operators to gain assurance from Original Equipment manufacturers if they wished to continue operating in any ash conditions. It was noted that the results of research to establish engine tolerance to ash were unlikely to be available before 2014 and it was therefore unlikely that a more definitive position by the engine manufacturers would be available before then. Dr Stephen Rooney confirmed that the CAA has publicly indicated the need for industry to take a stronger role in ensuring their ability to operate in any future volcanic ash events and was looking at further targeted media briefing to ensure that a public awareness remained on this issue.

8. The Board recognised the efforts that had been made to influence industry to address the ash issue and also recognised the progress that had been made with respect to forecasting of ash, implementation of a safety risk assessment approach and availability of a civil contingencies aircraft during an ash event. The Board were keen however for continued influencing in respect of industry and ICAO on this matter.

9. The Board discussed the sanctions available to the CAA should an airline attempt to operate in an unsafe manner during a volcanic ash event. It was noted that the CAA could remove the airline’s safety case (if there was one in place), or Air Operator’s Certificate, which would have insurance implications for the operator, and ultimately could close airspace.

[lomapaseo]

There are two way at looking at the level of ash vs engines.

As others have pointed we don't have enough information to tell the probability of ash combinations that do cause engine failure (not wear-out modes detectable as post maintenance issue).

But seeing as there is some particles of airborne ash throughout the world being ingested, we do have some meaningful data on what is safe to fly through. The more planes that fly through any measured level of ash, the more these datum become useful in at least raising the bar of acceptable risk.

[Gargleblaster]

An Icelandic scientist says that aircraft shouldn't overfly the volcano Hekla, as it's numerous eruptions occur with only 23 to 79 minutes warning.

Link to article (in icelandic)
Varasamt að fljúga yfir Heklu - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/22/varasamt_ad_fljuga_yfir_heklu/)

He lists the numerous aircraft that have overflown the volcano, only today.

He says it only takes the ash cloud between 5 and 20 minutes to reach cruising levels.

[The Old Fat One]

the wonders of the internet bring you pretty cool stuff...real time graphs and webcam

http://baering.github.io/

[Ian W]

An Icelandic scientist says that aircraft shouldn't overfly the volcano Hekla, as it's numerous eruptions occur with only 23 to 79 minutes warning.

Link to article (in icelandic)
Varasamt að fljúga yfir Heklu - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/22/varasamt_ad_fljuga_yfir_heklu/)

He lists the numerous aircraft that have overflown the volcano, only today.

He says it only takes the ash cloud between 5 and 20 minutes to reach cruising levels.

Perhaps he should talk to Reykjavik Centre they are the ones routing aircraft over the top at 'cruising levels'.

[mad_jock]

OFO thanks for that link.

Its now sitting as my screen saver with 1 hour set. you can almost see things moving.

[TopBunk]

From the link I gave in post #3:

Warning
It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

[carlogie]

Some minutes ago (14:04), an earthquake occurred, estimated 4.5 in magnitude.

The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

[bnt]

https://twitter.com/gislio/status/503184571324985344ICAO code raised to RED after small lava eruption has started at #Bardarbunga (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bardarbunga?src=hash) #ashtag (https://twitter.com/hashtag/ashtag?src=hash) source: IMO via @RUVfrettir (https://twitter.com/RUVfrettir)
— Gisli Olafsson (@gislio) August 23, 2014 (https://twitter.com/gislio/statuses/503184571324985344)

(#ashtag ... heh.)

[TopBunk]

It also seems as though aircraft are diverting around the area of the volcano [flightradar24].

[henry_crun]

Iceland Meteorlogical Office:

Warning

It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

Vatnajökull - earthquakes during the last 48 hours (Preliminary results) | Vatnajökull | Earthquakes - all regions | Seismicity | Icelandic Meteorological office (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/)

[proxus]

News in English:

Volcano | RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/volcano)

[henry_crun]

webcam

Bárðarbunga (http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga)

[henry_crun]

http://www.ruv.is/files/imagecache/frmynd-stor-624x351/myndir/flugbann.jpg

Restricted Area

Iceland Met Office

http://www.ruv.is/frett/small-eruption-believed-to-have-started

[Pace]

Have not checked but a couple of days ago the airflow from the North West was due to change tomorrow Sunday meaning any airflow from Iceland will not head our way

[1978]

Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?

Now that part of Icelandic airspace is closed, are the NATs effected? are certain NATs not available? Do the oceanic centers create ad hoc alternative routes, or does "Reykjavik Center" step in and coördinate with the respective oceanic centers?

BA49 LHR-SEA currently seems to be taking a southern route past Iceland and then a different route north over Greenland.

[TopBunk]

Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?

Now that part of Icelandic airspace is closed, are the NATs effected? are certain NATs not available? Do the oceanic centers create ad hoc alternative routes, or does "Reykjavik Center" step in and coördinate with the respective oceanic centers?

BA49 LHR-SEA currently seems to be taking a southern route past Iceland and then a different route north over Greenland.

NAT tracks predominately cater for traffic between Europe and the eastern seaboard, and as such usually route to the south of Iceland, and as such do not usually speak to Rekyavik, but to Gander and then Shanwick.

It is worthwhile looking at a Great Circle website to demonstrate the shortest route between two airports - the shortest time route will of course be affected by the upper level winds of the day.

Typically, when I operated trans-Atlantic from the UK to North America, I would not use NAT tracks when flying to the US west coast/Canada and sometimes/usually not en-route to Miami / further south.

Does this help?

For information, Rekyjavik FIR is north of 61N from 0W to 30W, and from N61W30 in a direct line to N63.5W39

[None]

1978 asks Are trans Atlantic flights which pass over Iceland normally controlled by "Reykjavik Center"? I would imagine these flights would normally be assigned a North Atlantic Track (NATs) and Icelandic control only goes up to a certain level?


The Organized Track System (OTS) is more south tonight. NAT Track S is the northern most OTS tonight and at 20W it is 53N. That's approximately 11 degrees of Latitude south of Iceland.

Outside of the OTS flights would be cleared on Random Routings as coordinated by the Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) whose airspace will be traversed and the Pilots and their Operations. Cleared routes will comply with any NOTAMs.

[mad_jock]

Kistufell ? The comatose volcano | VolcanoCafé (http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2013/06/16/kistufell-the-comatose-volcano/)


For any that are interested thats where the main group of tremors are now.

[oceancrosser]

No Eruption says Professor Magnus Tumi Gudmundsson Iceland´s leading scientist on Volcanes. The Met Office went overboard today when the tremors changed...

http://www.ruv.is/frett/expert-likely-no-eruption-yet

[grebllaw123d]

23rd August 2014 17:08 - status report

Overall assessment from the joint daily status report 230814 of the Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

The aviation color code has been raised to "red" as the data is currently interpreted as a subglacial eruption. Both the thickness of the ice at the possible contact point (100-400 m) and the volume of lava in possible contact with ice are highly uncertain. It could be 0-20 hours before lava reaches the surface of the ice. It is also possible that the lava will not break through the ice, and the eruption could remain subglacial.

In other words, nothing is certain at this time.

[mad_jock]

http://volcanocafe.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/bardarbunga_caldera.jpg?w=700&h=449

[safelife]

xya6454
gg enhbzezn
241226 birkynyx
(a0274/14 notamn
q) bird/qwwxx/iv/nbo/w/000/999/6437n01731w999
a) bird
b) 1408241221 c) 1408291200
e) volcano bardarbunga 373030 6437.5n 01731.5w information.
Aviation color code has been downgraded to orange.
Heavy seismic activity is recorded.
Present situation does not affect aviation.
The situation may change with short notice.
F) sfc
g) unl)

[safelife]

Bardarbunga: Aviation alert downgraded | RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/frett/bardarbunga-aviation-alert-downgraded)

[Volume]

Some interesting read as well... (pages 17 to 19)
Airbus FAST 53 (http://www.airbus.com/support/publications/?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=36308)
So obviously avoidance is still the only way to deal with it, but it could be done using an onboard detection system detecting vulcanic ash up to 100km ahead, quide enough to divert.

[visibility3miles]

Wired magazine:

Why Volcanic Ash Is So Terrible for Airplanes | Autopia | WIRED (http://www.wired.com/2014/08/volcano-ash-planes/)

Oxford Economics estimates it [Eyjafjallajökull] cost the aviation industry $2.6 billion.

That’s why easyJet—which itself lost $55 million—collaborated with Airbus and Nicarnica Aviation, a Norwegian company that works on infrared and ultraviolet technologies, to develop a better way to detect airborne ash. In November 2013, they successfully tested the Airborne Volcanic Object Imaging Detector (AVOID), which uses infrared cameras to spot ash up to 62 miles away. That allows pilots to change routes only when ash poses a real threat, staying safe and saving money...

[boisbrule]

The situation seems less threatening but uncertain. See

Latest on Bárðarbunga Volcano | Iceland Review (http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/25/latest-bardarbunga-volcano)

Iceland Review Online: All You Need to Know About Iceland: News, Volcano eruption, Politics, Business, Music, Literature, Films, Art, History, Traditions, Nature, Travel (http://icelandreview.com)

can often fill in what

Volcano | RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/volcano) omits.

[Volume]

It is always funny to see, how airlines that produce marginal profit per year can all of a sudden loose so much money within one week...

[mad_jock]

it quite simple all the fixed costs such as aircraft leases etc etc still have to be paid.

If the planes don't fly its scary how fast everything racks up.

[SLFguy]

It is always funny to see, how airlines that produce marginal profit per year can all of a sudden loose so much money within one week...

Eh? What a strange observation.

Your margin has no bearing on your costs.

[ZOOKER]

I wonder how much some of the U.K. airports made from having all those extra a/c parked on stands for several days?

[Skyjob]

Volcanologist Haraldur Sigurðsson claimed that it is possible that the underground magma from Bárðarbunga may seep into the volcanic system of Askja volcano and ignite a powerful eruption in that region. Still, he thinks it is more likely that the current activity will not lead to any activity above ground.

Full article here (http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/26/will-magma-flow-north-askja-volcano)

[mad_jock]

EASA Airworthiness Directives Publishing Tool (http://ad.easa.europa.eu/ad/2010-17R6)

For those that are interested.

[Skyjob]

Interestingly quiet about the volcano issue since weekend.
Nevertheless 3 reports of 5+ on Richter scale in last 6 hours today.

[mad_jock]

its not finished by a long shot I have been watching it in an amateur fashion.

The dyke is not extending and is now outside the ice field and has stopped propagating forwards but is still working down and left and right. They use a thing called harmonics to see how much larva is moving and there is loads of it moving fast.

The main volcano crater has 700meters of ice sitting on top of it. But they can see that the chamber under it is still filling and pressurising. The 5.7 quake is the largest quake since 2008.

If it does go bang which some seem to think it is just a matter of time is going to be big.

If the dyke works its way to the surface and goes first it may stop the under ice sheet eruption happening but it may cause the crater to collapse.

All very interesting from 1000's of nautical miles away. :ok:

[Andrewgr2]

About 700 NM from Aberdeen :8

[andrasz]

There is no info on the exact cam location, but by the look of it, it should be somewhere 25-30 km to the NE of Vatnajokull, looking over the flat sandy plain between Bardarbunga and Askja.

Edit: managed to find the location (approximately 64°58'33"N 16°29'25"W):

Another webcam has been put up overlooking Bárðabunga volcano. The new one is situated on Vaðalda peak in the central highlands, just north of Vatnajökull glacier.
The distance to Bárðarbunga is approximately 60 km (37 mi).

[mad_jock]

Another 5 on the scale under the ice.

And to my uneducated eye they seem to be getting nearer the surface.

[ZOOKER]

The webcam is now showing (1215UTC) something in the middle distance, it may be 'venting', or blown dust. it appears to be blowing to the right.

[andrasz]

Strong winds are picking up the sand and dust. Been like that all day. The volcano is the white streak on the far horizon.

[ZOOKER]

Thanks andrasz, the fixed webcam appears to be looking approximately south-west, based on the sunlight.

[mad_jock]

Sprungur í Holuhrauni á myndbandi | RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/frett/sprungur-i-holuhrauni-a-myndbandi)

Video: Fractures in Holuhraun North of Bárðarbunga | Iceland Review (http://icelandreview.com/news/2014/08/28/video-fractures-holuhraun-north-bardarbunga)

[mad_jock]

Another Volcano on yellow alert now.

Askja volcano
◾The dyke from Bárðarbunga volcano has entered Askja volcano. Not the fissure swarm, the volcano it self.
◾Askja volcano status has been elevated to Yellow.

Bárðarbunga volcano
◾Cauldrons in Vatnajökull glacier that is on top of Bárðarbunga volcano have not grown during the night.
◾The water seems to be flowing into Grímsvötn (Grímsfjall volcano) lake. It has risen close to 15 meters in the past few days.
◾Earthquake activity is high. Both in the main volcano were a magnitude 5,4 earthquake (EMSC magnitude, USGS magnitude) took place today (28-August-2014) at 08:13 UTC. The earthquake took place in the caldera rim as most of the large earthquakes have happened.
◾Over 1300 earthquakes happened yesterday in the north end of the dyke swarm.
◾Cracks have started to happen in the crust above the dyke. This means the dyke is getting wider and is higher up in the crust then suggested by earthquake activity. There are reports of small cauldrons in Dyngjujökull glacier in the area, in the place were the glacier is thinnest and ending.
◾Harmonic tremor remains high on all SIL stations around Bárðarbunga volcano.

The situation is extremely dynamic and is going to change fast in next 24 to 48 hours. I am now close to 80% sure that an eruption is going to take place in both Askja volcano and Bárðarbunga volcano, since minor eruptions have been taking place under the glacier already.

[oceancrosser]

And who excartly is that quote from mad_jock?

[Machdiamond]

The quote is from this blog, the author is calling himself a hobby scientist - we have a few of those here as well:
Iceland geology | Volcano and earthquake activity in Iceland (http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/)

[flynerd]

as reported here...

Iceland geology | Volcano and earthquake activity in Iceland (http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/)

Eruption has started in the dyke area. The eruption appears clearly on Míla web camera. It can be viewed here....


Bárðarbunga (http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga)

[grebllaw123d]

Official information from the Icelandic Met Office website - Home-page - Icelandic Meteorological Office | Icelandic Meteorological office (http://en.vedur.is/)

Warning
A fissure eruption has started north of Dynjujökull.

[SR-22]

Lava just started spewing up through a lava area called Holuhraun just north of Bardarbunga volcano in northern Vatnajokull glacier.


An eruption has started north of Dyngjujökull - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/29/an_eruption_has_started_north_of_dyngjujokull/)


SIGMET published as well:
BIRD SIGMET 02 VALID 290120/290430 BIRK- BIRD REYKJAVIK CTA VA ERUPTION MT IN PROGRESS BARDARBUNGA / HOLUHRAUN - NO VA OBS - PSN EST PSN N6450 W01640 VA CLD OBS N6444 W01655 - N6510 W02000 - N6600 W01740 - N6444 W01610 SFC/FL180 MOV NNW 20KT

[Blackjack_]

You think we'll see another 2011 Grímsvötn situation?

[SR-22]

Hopefully not no. For now it's just lava spewing out and no ash cloud. But you never really know I guess. But these last few years see m quite active up in Iceland.

[andrasz]

Nice view of the eruption on the Mila webcam with a rare morning sunlight:

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/

This is a small fissure eruption just like those at Kilauea in Hawaii, aviation threat zero. If this small eruption is sufficient to relieve the underground magma pressure (and that will become clear in a day or two) then the chances for any larger eruptions are slim.

Edit:

At present the webcam seems to show just steam venting (at a diminishing rate), the eruption itself appears to have paused.

[deci]

latest (from EC)

Ow.ly - image uploaded by @eurocontrol (http://ow.ly/i/6I02i/original)

[oceancrosser]

Video Fyrstu flugmyndir af eldgosinu | RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/frett/fyrstu-flugmyndir-af-eldgosinu)


Looks pretty benign for now. Far away from anything.

[Skyjob]

(a0284/14 notamr a0283/14
q) bird/qwwlw/iv/nbo/w /000/050/6459n01718w034
a) bird b) 1408290734 c) 1408291030
e) volcanic eruption in holuhraun est posn 6453n 01650w ne of volcano bardarbunga 373030 6437.5n 01731.5w iceland-ne. The forecasted ashcloud area is estimated to reach sfc/fl050 .
Danger area established within: N6444w01730-n6510w01830-n6530w01740-n6444w01610
no ifr clearance will be issued penetrating the danger area.
F) sfc g) fl050)

[SR-22]

Local scientists say that over 300 million sq meters of magma is in the tunnel system under that area. This short eruption last night was just a small splash, and that magma is still flowing into that tunnel system from below. Constant seizmic tremours going on still.


They say at the moment there are 3 most likely continued scenarios:




Magma flow stops, as do the seizmic tremours and no further eruptions.
Magma reaches the surface again via the same crators or new ones.
Eruption starts under the glacier, which would result in explosive ash plumes as a result of magma coming in contact with ice, and the melting ice overflowing the main rivers towards the sea.



Other scenarios cannot be ruled out yet, so basically anything can still happen.

[ZOOKER]

SR-22, Do you really mean 300,000,000 square metres of magma? Magma bodies are 3-dimensional and volumes are usually expressed in cubic-km, or fractions thereof. Is there a reference for the 'local scientists' estimate?

[SR-22]

Sorry my bad, of course what I meant is over 300 million cubic meters.


Here is an article about it in English:
350 million cubic meters of magma in the dyke - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/26/350_million_cubic_meters_of_magma_in_the_dyke/)

[etudiant]

These estimated magma amount are only a third of a cubic kilometer, which is a fifth of the ejected volume at Mt St Helens. So not a huge concern thus far.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.

[ZOOKER]

What is interesting is that the North-Atlantic 'mantle-plume' is thought to be situated directly under the NW corner of Vatnajökull. Having said that, some geologists doubt whether it actually exists!

[Gargleblaster]

Yawn. I grew up during the Krafla eruptions, went on for 8 or so years, with no real damage. This one shows same characteristics. Still may develop into a sub-glacier one with lots of ash. Noone knows...

[SR-22]

These estimated magma amount are only a third of a cubic kilometer, which is a fifth of the ejected volume at Mt St Helens. So not a huge concern thus far.
Still, the volcano's record includes the earth's largest known eruption in the past 10,000 years.



The amount you are referring to is the amount of ash plume ejected into the air. We are talking magma amounts here, voluminous lava.
The estimated amount of ash plume that came out of the infamous Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010, was less than that or 0.25 km3 to be exact. So I would disagree and say that we do definetely need to worry. But let's hope this will only be like the one this morning, just lava well away from the glaciers. Or like the locals like to say "a tourist eruption"

An interesting fact, that in the last 500 years Icelandic volcanoes have erupted a third of the total global lava output. And one of the worlds largest lava flows came out of the Eldgjá fissure system, just south of the glacier 18 cubic km.

One of the most dangerous ones, Mt Katla is overdue for an eruption.. that vulcano has in history changed the global weather for a long time. It has been closely monitored now for many years. I has about 6 times larger ice cap on top of it than Eyjafjallajökull had. That one we do need to worry about, and it is not that far away from the current activity.

[Pace]

One of the most dangerous ones, Mt Katla is overdue for an eruption.. that vulcano has in history changed the global weather for a long time. It has been closely monitored now for many years. I has about 6 times larger ice cap on top of it than Eyjafjallajökull had. That one we do need to worry about, and it is not that far away from the current activity.

SR22

With our brains we regard time in our time scales days weeks months years to build an icecap of the size you are talking about would take many thousands of years of little or no activity so don't mislead the human mind timescale into thinking next week next month next year?

We are talking PROBABLY!!! of hundreds of years. While these major eruptions could be tomorrow look at the history and eruption time scales and the likelyhood becomes minuscule and not a weekly occurence

Pace

[ZOOKER]

Pace,
SR-22 is correct. Katla, the next global 'geomagnetic-reversal' and Jellystone Park are all running late. Don't forget that even in Scottish latitudes, a permanent ice-cap is only a hundred metres or so above Ben Nevis.

[mad_jock]

Aye but PACE is also correct that in geology terms they will happen in the next micro bit of time.

But to humans that can be a couple of life times.

I suspect though in this case something is going to happen sooner rather than later with this bad boy. That isn't a scientific observation just a gut feel.

I was trying to estimate the energy involved with the opposing forces ie weight of rock weight of ice etc. It just mind boggling how much there is sitting balanced at the moment. if it all goes at once its going to be one huge bang. Slowly through some sort of throttle maybe not to bad. But its got to go somewhere.

[Nearly There]

MJ, Ive been following the link OFO posted on page 3 quite closely, we're away to Cyprus sunday and looks like we'll get there now thankfully, not to bothered about being stranded there!...on the 3D bulge model in the link there was a magnitude of -0.6 yesterday and I'm struggling to find an answer for a minus(-) magnitude that doesnt conflict other answers, any ideas?

Verified Magnitude Time Depth
1.7 6 minutes ago 4.8km
1 7 minutes ago 5.1km
1.5 9 minutes ago 5.2km
1.2 10 minutes ago 2.2km
-0.6 12 minutes ago 11.4km
0.1 15 minutes ago 1.1km
1.8 16 minutes ago

[le Pingouin]

Earthquake magnitude is a logarithmic scale so magnitude -1 is 1/10 the energy of magnitude 0, 1/100 of magnitude 1 and so forth.

[mad_jock]

Nearly I am no expert.

Richter magnitude scale - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale)

The table in that is quite good at giving you a feel to how much bang it is in relation to bombs.

You can see a 5 is about the same as a 480 kiloton nuke going off. But 4 is 15ktons

Now as the Nagasaki fat boy nuke had a yield of 21kton. To give you a feel for the numbers.

Logarithmic scales are a bit of a pain to get your head round. Its easier if you can relate to something else which you can get your head round.

And the reason for the negative I think is because of a spurious reading that confused it. Possibly something local to the sensor.

I think they have a quality method which involves cross referencing three sites which if they all agree about the power and where it is, it then gets recorded as happening. Which then removes the likes of that reading

[Nearly There]

Cheers gents, yes that was my understanding, I had been reading another site which was quite heavy going, the -0.6 threw me as from what I'd read this is barely a mouse fart yet it had registered. A disturbance at the monitor/sensor site make sense. Im no expert either as you can probably tell but its a fascinating subject to read and to watch.

[Flash2001]

They don't use Richter much any more, the flavour of the month is Moment Magnitude. It's pretty close to Richter, though. Both these measure the quake at its origin. Another useful measure is Modified Mercali, it says how much it affects you.

After an excellent landing etc...

[mad_jock]

I am in the same boat.

Find myself recycling the web page looking at various sized spots and getting excited when they change or there is a big one. Then read something find a wordi don't know and loose a hour learning something more about volcanoes.

[Old Engineer]

Here's a little help on that -0.6 [or -0,6 across the pond] number. It is not an earthquake magnitude. It is actually a measure of whether the volcano that might erupt (Bardadur--sp?) is either swelling up (+) or deflating down (-).

The high, conical (more or less) volcano (capped with a lot of ice) acts like a municipal water tower. It pressurizes the underground caverns and tunnels through which the melted rock flows upward. Typically at a certain age it is more common for the melted rock to find a weakness on the flanks of the central volcano and then discharge at a lower elevation some distance from the top of the volcano. At the moment the discharge is some miles to the NNE through a long passage (or several) to area where a great many old fissures lead to the local surface. This area is quietly steaming right now.

This outlet is being fed by a drop in the melted rock level within the higher volcano itself. That causes the flank of the volcano rim to move inward, and also tilt inward. There are several ways this can be measured, either horizontal movement inward or by an inward tilt, depending on the instruments available and placeable. I am not totally sure what this method here is, but let's just say that in this case two opposite points on the rim are now -0.6 centimeter closer to each other in the last 24 hrs. It will go both ways, and after a while a trend can be seen. The trend can reverse as well. If it's tilt, the -0.6 is some measure of an angle (seconds of arc?).

The melted rock contains water, which will flash to steam if enough pressure is removed. Meantime, the steam pressure of the heated water both assists the quartz fraction of the rock to melt and propels the hot slurry through the underground tunnels (sizes in the usual sense of tunnel as we use it). The earthquakes are lurches as the heavy melted rock moves, for the most part, altho their exact nature is not totally understood.

The Icelandic Meteorologic Office has some papers and reports on these subjects on their user-friendly website, in English as well as Icelandic. The key thing here for aircraft, however, is that the Icelanders really watch this stuff, and since 2010, appear also to have upgraded their ability to quickly detect conditions which would be a danger. Hawaii Volcanoes Observatory is also another source of info, altho their excellent commentator has retired (it was a lot of work, some of which he donated).

As for trouble reading all the jargon used, don't feel bad. I was once a geologist, and I know what you're saying. Like the 0.6-- I didn't worry if it was millimeters or meters or angles. It's only whether it's plus or minus and what that means that matters. So long as you've seen it all before, it's ok... ...if not, run :)

[mad_jock]

jus catching up on the over night activity.

The readings are going to be out for a while as they have a pretty bad storm going through.

And thy seem to have a third area of activity started.

[oceancrosser]

No its at the fissure where it was a few days ago. Appears a little more powerful, but hard to see due to lousy weather.

[AmericanFlyer]

UPDATE 2-New fissure eruption at Iceland volcano prompts highest aviation warning | Reuters (http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/08/31/iceland-volcano-idINL5N0R10A520140831)

[Evey_Hammond]

Lovely lava can now be seen here (http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/)

[Bittair3000]

More photos can be seen here;
Amazing photos from the eruption - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/innlent/2014/08/31/amazing_photos_from_the_eruption/)

[nigel osborne]

5.1 and 3.2 quakes lunch time Sun 31/8/14 north rim again. Wonder how much more this area can take before it cracks open ?

Interesting comments from Insurance companies saying as this eruption is being so carefully monitored and alerts being raised and reduced...if there is a large eruption they might not treat as act of god,and may refuse to pay out if flights disrupted.

Thankfully none of the reports from the experts I have read in last few days suggest anything other than mild eruptions continuing, perhaps for months.

[mad_jock]

http://baering.github.io/earthquakes/visualization.html

Have a play with that. That chap is quite talented I think.

[OFSO]

Warning
Fissure eruption in Holuhraun (north of Vatnajökull).
Lava exit fissue estimated at 4Km long

Related topics | Earthquakes - all regions | Seismicity | Icelandic Meteorological office (http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/)

[Evey_Hammond]

Very impressive (ash?) cloud currently live here (http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga/)

[mad_jock]

Sulphur dioxide and steam apparantly.

[henry_crun]

http://mike-wsm.org.uk/zpp202.jpg

Still Bubbling

http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/


Not sub-glacial, it's coming up from uniced land.

[mad_jock]

The main volcano still has some activity going on so the sub glacial stuff is not out of the question yet.

They have had a 5.4, 4.9 and 3.8 in the last 24hours.

There is a bot of me wanting a big one, and there is another bit of me doesn't.

[henry_crun]

Not sure that it is meaningful to compare magma-induced quake figures with tectonic plate quake figures, but a 12.0 might make Californians jealous. I've ridden a 5.8 and it ain't nuthin'.

[ZOOKER]

The webcam is now showing some equipment being set up in front of it.

[grebllaw123d]

A fantastic video may be seen via this link from the Icelandic newspaper mbl:

Mesmerizing video of the Holuhraun eruption - mbl.is (http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/09/06/mesmerizing_video_of_the_holuhraun_eruption/)

[henry_crun]

Space in Images - 2014 - 09 - Bardarbunga sulphur dioxide spread (http://www.esa.int/spaceinimages/Images/2014/09/Bardarbunga_sulphur_dioxide_spread)

[118.70]

The sulphur spread animation didn't show the cloud that went over UK/Ireland over the last few days.

The peaks were most impressive at Ennis and Dublin, but even the North Kensington monitor shot up between 9pm and 11pm on Sunday night reaching an unusual 31ug/m3 at 9.45.

There seem to be hints that an eruption under the glacier (ash ?) may be imminent.

[mad_jock]

it depends who you look at their opinion.

The government sources are being none committal and are protecting the population as much as the can from themselves but the gas seems to be getting a bit much in some areas.

The gifted amateurs are commenting on the huge dropping of the caldera and there seems to be mixed ideas what this means as every time there is a drop off in activity it drops and starts again. They are say the top mass of the caldera maybe so soft now it doesn't create quakes when it moves.

The one they seem to be most worried about is the main caldera going with 850m of ice on the top of it. And opinions vary between 60%-95% if its going to go.

Just now they are reporting there maybe a small eruption under the glacier but there has been no flood water yet.

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

Just been updated, he seems to be a gifted keen amateur and has been pretty spot on so far.

[mad_jock]

Check that link again. It seems like things are getting serious again with 1 meter drops in the caldera daily.

Might be air closure time again if the winds in the wrong direction. BUt it could be tomorrow or in a months time.

[BELHold]

Noticed MET1 on Wednesday over N.Ireland doing several sweeps at FL180 from Fermanagh right up over the north coast.

Anyone know if it was Volcano related?

[mad_jock]

RÚV (http://www.ruv.is/)

Well the Icelandic media have started propagating emergency LW frequency's for an emergency. Looks like they are gearing up for a big one.

The 850m thick ice cap over the caldera is now showing fissures.

[nigel osborne]

Mad Jock,

There has been a significant drop in the number of earthquakes last few days and their have been none over Mag 4 for a day now.

Could it be that the scientists first likely scenerio has proved to be right, that it is about to stop ?.

However this volcano has defied everyone so far and understanding of volcanoes has had the rule book ripped up, doing things never observed before.

So it may still have a sting in the tail left over the coming weeks.


Nigel

[mad_jock]

Nigel there was a 4.9 one 12 hours ago in the Caldera.

The stuff I have been reading says the they reckon there is that much movement now inside the crater over 21 meters subsidence that the ground is that soft that it doesn't create shakes anymore. And its dropping at 08. to 1m per day.

The volcano is inflating, the amount of magma coming out of the eruptions so far is less than they reckon is going into it.

850m worth of ICE on top of the thing is now showing cracks on the top because the bottom has dropped so much.

From what I have read is the ice is acting like a champagne cork and once the magma gets at the ice and melts it the reduction of the weight off the top will let it go pop.

http://www.ruv.is/frett/subsidence-by-hundreds-of-meters-possible

[bravoromeosierra]

Well I am currently on holiday on the right side of the Atlantic (in Canada), so anything that gets me out of my impending mix of late shifts next week will do nicely.

[mad_jock]

If it goes off I suspect you will be getting the boat home :D

They are talking 3-4 weeks of ash. And a up to 5 years with no summer.

[henry_crun]

If it really goes up we will all hear it go.

Check out Krakatoa.

[mad_jock]

if your on it seach on farcebook for "Institute of Earth Sciences"

This page contains scientific data and results from the staff of the Institute of Earth Sciences and various collaborators. The data is posted timely to give maximum information on evaluation of an evolving natural catastrophe. Please respect copyright and authorship of the data.

It has some good stuff on it.

[henry_crun]

Just a quick explanation for those counting earthquakes - this is not a reliable indicator.

The caldera is dropping at a steady rate. When it encounters an obstruction around its periphery it will progressively add weight to it until it breaks. The magnitude and frequency of quakes is simply a measure of the size and number of obstructions.

[henry_crun]

We're through the period of maximum gravitation modulation. For Iceland, being so far north, this comes during the summer. Perhaps things will hot up again next June/July.

[mad_jock]

After a few days of reduced activity things seem to be brewing up again around the main caldera.

Lots of +3 shakes with more than a few high 4's both shallow and deep.

I was reading as well the chemical composition has changed of the magma and it is now from 10k +down.

[Maoraigh1]

From jonfr.is Geology Blog today:


Is it going to create a flight chaos as happened with Eyjafjallajökull in 2010?
No, that is unlikely to happen. While disruptions should be expected once an eruption starts under the glacier that appears to be powerful enough to break trough the glacier. The volcano ash from Bárðarbunga volcano is going to be different, since the magma is basalt, it is going to explode on contact with water, creating volcano. No lava is not going to be erupting while water gets into the erupting craters. This also means that the volcano ash that forms is larger and heavier as result. That means it doesn’t stay as long up in the air and does not go long distances.

[Heathrow Harry]

IIRC Krakatoa went bang when water got into the volcano - and the blow-out at Mt St Helen's was made worse by the snow and ice around the dome.........

[Maoraigh1]

From the UK National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (2013) regarding an effusive eruptions as is happening now (Not the future suggested caldera collapse of Bardarbunga)

3.35
The research and ongoing modelling have been used to estimate the expected modern-day impacts of a similar event. It is anticipated that an eruption of this scale and type could have significant public health impacts on the ground. Similarly, the aviation industry and aircraft passengers could be affected because at this height sulphur dioxide concentrations could be even greater than at the ground. However, a quantitative assessment is required to fully characterise the risks. Widespread airspace closures on a significantly bigger and more prolonged scale than those experienced in April 2010 could be expected due to the longevity of such an eruption.

[TBSC]

Health impact is one thing and airspace closure is another. Until there's no ash these are only quesses. How would sulphur affect passengers and the industry in short term? SO2 cloud reportedly reached Germany and Austria today (after reaching Norway and Sweden more than 2 weeks ago) and still noone gives a toss. Besides it is washed out quite easily by rain therefore higher contentration far from Iceland is quite unlikely.

[LNIDA]

If the caldera at Bardarbunga collapses as is now expected, then airspace closures could be the least of our worries, the Laki event was estimated to have led to 2m+ deaths world wide as a result of changed world wide weather patterns resulting in drought/famine in Asia and 3 very cold European winters

[Betablockeruk]

That's the worst, worst case scenario!

The regular factsheets are worth reading:

The Civil Protection Scientific Advisory Board ? Civil Protection and Emergency Management (http://avd.is/en/?page_id=352)

[TBSC]

@LNIDA

I'm aware of that, I was talking about the sulphur. It does not seem to bother "the aviation industry and airline passengers" altough its all around already if we can believe the scientists.

Besides that what "eruption of this scale and type" they talk about while noone knows what size and type it will be and how long it lasts? Caldera collapse? More fissures around? Sub-glacier eruption? Flood? Ash? And what type of ash? More suplhur? Or none of those?

[LNIDA]

A good question and i've not seen any info on it, i guess much would depend upon the level (FL) and concentration.

I think its more likely than not that something will happen in the next couple of months given all the data, hopefully it will be limited to subglacial and the floods that follow, but no one can tell, that the nature of the beast, but some excellent stuff on youtube if you search Icelandic volcanos