Wannabes and pilots, don't panic it will work out.

[InFinRetirement]

I have been thinking awhile about making comment on the subject of continuing pilot training.

I have been thinking too about what the short and long term effects of this tragedy are, and what subsequent problems face the airlines. My thoughts are mainly drawn from my own experience of running two airlines in the last 20 odd years, and what the effects of recession and war has meant in the past.

The first thing to say is that I respect the views expressed by Scroggs and WWW - and others. That doesn't mean that I have to agree with them. In most cases I don't.

In the 70's when I first started, I was 'advised' that it was the worst possible time to start and airline - but I didn't think so, but everyone says that. In 1977 when my first operation obtained it's AOC, Freddie Laker began operating his SKYTRAIN operation on the basis of making 50p per seat. About £300 maximum! Each way!! The GBP was riding high at around $2.38 and all charges to the airlines, as now, are always in USD. Then a couple of years later the £ dived, SKYTRAIN was wiped off the map, Laker went down the tubes and was quickly followed by others. McDonnell Douglas turned against Fred after receiving 'threats' from German operators that would never buy McD aircraft again if they attempted to bail him out - which they were quite prepared to do. Midland Bank pulled the plug - quite viciously, as they tended to do and Fred was gone. So were his pilots, and cabin staff plus engineers and all.

In 1978/9 British Airways had 'no use' for their many Hamble trained pilots and many came onto the 'market'. BA offered to assist any airline if they could give the Hamble guys a job and I took eight of them. I was to discover that there were NO better trained pilots then - or since. None, but sadly Hamble has long gone. Overall by 1980 I had 50 odd pilots, and 9 Hamble pilots. ALL of the Hamble pilots are in the airlines this day, one or two are now Training Captains on the B744. I was proud to have them.

Later there came the downfall of travel companies, Horizon and Court Airlines, was one such example - more pilots and cabin staff available again. Then later we had Air Europe and IntaSun, more pilots, more cabin staff and so on and so on. Later there was BCal formed from British United and Caledonian, then new airlines came in and then another shortage of pilots arose.

Then the Gulf war came and passenger traffic dropped from 13m to 10.5m - more airlines down the tubes, Paramount, TEA - all were going at an arlarming rate. But then new airlines were formed again, and again and again............the same things were happening.

You see the point? It happens time after time. History repeats itself in the airline industry and always will. But never once, with perhaps the exception of Dan Air where there were exceptional circumstances, did pilots find that they were out of work for long periods. The idea of buying airlines for a £1 had been borne by the infamous David James and Dan Air suffered. But never a shortage of pilots for any length of time. Simply because new operations sprang up like the phoenix out of the ashes.

In my humble opinion, what has happened now is that the recession, that Virgin was guarding against, by RB's own admission, "we have to batten down the hatches till the recession is over", has been deepened suddenly by this barbaric act. In other words the attack on America created it's own recession! This has driven Virgin and others to offload equipment that was hurting them most - the B747 Classic. It was, in fact, probably a welcoming that they could have well done without, but it may well help them survive.

I am not privy to the sums involved but 600 pilots and cabin staff x their salaries is (£??,???,???) and seven(?) Classics x their lease rates is (£??,???,???) and now Virgin can consider their future as being sustainable - possibly! It had to be done or die.

The economics of running an airline are simple. It's Costs over Income - what's left over is profit! Hopefully! If it is negative you worry. Then you have trim the operation down - doing whatever it takes.

I am trying to demonstrate, without giving you too much to hang your hats on, that it has ALL happened before, and during ALL of that in the past Oxford, Perth, CASS and other Training centres were still busy putting people through training. CAFU for example, was at Stansted in the 80's and part of the 90's and getting a slot was very difficult. Unless you had your own TRE/IRE it was a case of booking up well in advance for your own pilots to get their renewals completed. It didn't change.

After the Gulf war the numbers picked up quickly to 12m pax in the first year, and back to 13m and 14m thereafter. Aircraft were hard to get from the leasing companies - who began to do well again. Pilots were hard to find too. Sponsorship by the majors was rife in middle 80's.

So there you are. History will again repeat itself. It will be tougher than before perhaps, but the airlines will come out the other side. Passengers have demonstrated over the years that they have short memories. Then their confidence soon returns.

If I were a wannabe again. And I wouldn't want to these days. I would think positively about your future in the industry. It will return re-newed and raring to go and very much in need of pilots. I have never in 24 years seen it any different.

The industry suffers just like other businesses do but you can't have life without aeroplanes and you can't have aeroplanes without pilots. 6 or 7 crews to each and every one.

The bounce back might be more difficult, it might be longer than usual but it will happen. How can it not?

Think long and hard about what you want to do. Perhaps you could take it in short strides, one thing at a time. But what you should not do is give up. That has never been an option. There is be no reason in my mind to think that now.

The above is fact, well I hope I didn't get anything wrong, and I cannot say that anyone should do this or do that - except giving up. The final decision is yours and yours alone.

Good luck.

[uncle peter]

here here. great post infin. may take a while for consumer confidence to restore but it will. there will always be a need for pilots. lets just hope that this is a temporary downturn. cant help but think these announcements were a tad hasty...

[JT8]

Great post IFR - just what I needed to hear right now to keep myself positive.

Look forward to meeting you at the Gatbash.

JT8 :)

[silverknapper]

InFinRetirement Thank you for what I would say is an inspirational post - I am at the stage of embarking on a course within the next 4 months and have been plagued with doubts since last week, compounded by the daily headlines. What you say really steels my resolve. Cheers

[Bluebaron]

i agree, i've been looking for as a job longer than most (3 1/2 years) If i have to wait a bit longer, who cares, i'll work at tesco's.

chin up and smile :D

[clear prop!!!]

At last, an informed, well balanced and foreseeing coment on a situation which we can only hope will recover soon.

Thankyou sir.

[Oleo]

Well said IFR, the voice of temperance and experience. Sure, we all feel the chill winds of recession and the appalling New York terrorist attack keenly. But if you are starting your training now, maybe you might be coming on market just as the market starts it's up-turn. It would be no good shelving things and then risk missing the tide, empty handed bereft of the requisite licences while the jobs are being handed out.

It's cyclical nature is the only constant of this aviation industry. Yes, definitely have a plan 'B' and be prepared for a possibly long wait, but be ready, for the tide will surely turn. People will not stop flying for long, simple as that.

[foghorn]

Thank you IFR! You've put a smile back on my face.

For me a recession is hopefully just an opportunity to instruct for a while to gain hours until the jobs return!

cheers!
foggy.

[G SXTY]

Thanks IFR. It’s good to get a perspective from someone who has seen it all before, and I hope you’ve managed to calm a few nerves.

Rest assured though, with all the emotions and thoughts going round my head over the last week, giving up never even crossed my mind. So what if it takes another 3 years instead of 2, or 4 instead of 3. I simply can’t countenance a career doing anything else.

I’m just hoping I’ll be there in thirty years time, penning notes to wannabes, telling them not to worry – I’ve seen it all before. ;)

Good luck to you all.

[HomerSimpson]

Sadly as IFR has said, this industry runs in cycles. I thought up until last week that the industry was going in the right direction. However, there are lots of people already in the industry that will be badly affected. I hope those, who have mortgages to pay and families to provide for find another job soon.

It looks like im going to build as many hours as possible until this all blows over....foggy...howz about a race? First to 1000 hours? What do you say? Now theres something to brighten our day!

Homer.... :p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Just for clarifcation Scroggs and I have been advising POSTPONING the start of expensive training for 3 - 6 months.

Yes the industry will bounce back. But guys with 200hrs and cheeky grin will be the very last to benefit. From what I saw of the early 90's recession the nadir of 1991/2 meant that guys with very low hours started getting hired reguarly by about 1995. 1996 was getting better and 1997/98 were the years when there really was a lag between demand and supply and those holding a CPL/IR were getting jobs with what seemed ease. By late 1998 supply had responded to demand.

All this by way of anecdotal insight watching lots of friends at the time.

The problem becomes acute when you graduate with high debt levels and low hours. The debt needs servicing and so with a lack of jobs you end up being forced to return to what you did prior to training. Or stacking shelves.

At the same time your IR is expiring and a renewal these days will cost you - what - £1,700.

You can't afford to fly so your skills - honed intensively - begin to deteriorate. Recruiters know this and are unlikley to be impressed with a CV stating 200hrs from 9 months ago. Even if they are the sim assessment is going to be a nightmare when you haven't handled for months.

You consider ducking off into instructing but suddenly there are fewer students as career orientated PPL see the market and decide to wait. Compounded by your coursemates thinking likewise and your canny flying school owner picking and choosing and paying accordingly.

Am I the only person who remembers flying instructors working just for the hours and no pay in 1994?

After a year or two of this hopelessness you are forced to give up renewing the IR and let it lapse. Servicing the debt is all you can manage and now with lapsed ratings and even an expiring Frzn ATPL your chances of riding the upturn are minimal. At the same time you are getting on in your desk job and starting to earn money that is very often impossible to abandon as you get older and get responsibilites.

You are now lost to the industry and bitter and twisted towards aviation in general.

I've seen all this happen.

I think it is only sound airmanship to advise caution at this time. Caution manifesting itself in delaying any of the big financial investments. Delaying. Not abandoning.

I hope this pans out well I really do. But, coming home tonight listening to Radio 4 news the 2nd item on the agenda was the perilous state of the airline industry. Thats one hell of an indication of the gravity of the situation in itself.

Fingers crossed. The canny will position themselves perfectly for the upturn. Just how they achieve that is a mystery to me though.

Good luck,

WWW

[George Semel]

You Know back when we americans decided to fight in the Gulf back in 91, they said it would last for years and there would be some 30000 dead. Well it lasted 6 mo total and less that 100 hours of ground fighting. Fewer that 200 dead. No body knows for sure what is going to happen in two days let alone a year or two down the road. Just buck up a little with that legendary British Stiff Upper Lip. This is not WW-II nor are these guys all that bright. These dim wits will be a whole lot easier to deal with that the Germans in WW-I and WW-II and the Soviets in the Cold war. These guys really did themselves in big time. You guys that are in training right now, finish, those of you that are thinking about it, well keep your eyes and ears open, in a couple of months things will look better if not in another week or two. We Americans will be back to normal in another week or so. This got us mad and when we get mad, we unite and do what has to be done. Its going to get fixed a lot faster that you would belive.

[Polar_stereographic]

Top post IFR, well timed and good to have a bit of balance on this forum. Worth also reading John Standen's post in
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi?ubb=get_topic&f=2&t=010942

PS

Shame he's not found work. Someone's loosing out big time there.

[GonvilleBromhead]

Good post IFR, a viewpoint much needed at times like this.

For my tuppence worth, the industry has always been cyclical and always will be, granted it's worse at times like this.

But I truly believe it will come around again and now is a time to consolidate positions and not to panic. Have a pragmatic view of your own situations and how they fit the grand scheme of things and take measures accordingly i.e. fallback position if possible/necessary.

Truth is no-one knows what the outlook will settle down to be, which means it could be "better" (and I use that word cautiously) than many predictions at the moment, who knows !

If it means delaying a course for a while or as in my case maybe change the pace at which I progress down the modular route then so be it for a few months, let's give it a chance to see how things pan out.

Be realistic but also remain positive.

GB.

:)

[Mister Geezer]

Hear Hear!

Good to see some positive words on this forum just when every post was looking very gloomy.

It is all very good comparing what happened in the past to what could happen now. Lets sit tight, ride the storm and see where we all stand in a few months before we say that the writing is on the wall.

MG ;)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Guys. The lead item on the news this morning - BA job losses and the grounding o 20 aircraft. That about 200 spare pilots. Will BA actually lay them off. I don't see why not.

If they do then we already have over 300 jet rated pilots on the market in the UK. Which at least matches the likely requirements for the next 18 months at least. Therefore anyone entering ab initio now is virtually gauranteed to be unemployed for at least 6 months post graduation.

Are you talking to people just about to graduate? I am. To a man they are having all their interviews cancelled. All of them.

The doors are being slammed shut for Wannabes and there is no mistake about it.

Will it pick up in a years time? Hope so. Wouldn't bet £50k on it mind.

WWW

[Crash Barrier]

IFR,
Forgive my ignorance, but surely this is a tad worse than the 'gulf-war', 'laker' situation ever was. I think you are being too optimistic. Look at the many thousands being laid off worldwide by this crisis, this is the single biggest blow the aviation community has ever faced. I have to agree with WWW's sentiments of wait and see, but I fear the situation will not improve for many, many years.

The talk of an upturn 'round the corner' surely is premature, what wannabes nead to hear is sound solid advice from people in the know (supposedly like you), before they shell out loads of money that they cannot afford to pay back.

Shame on you IFR, the bodies have not even been pulled out from the wreckage and already you forecast a climate of 'Oh it will pick up, I have seen it all before'

The truth is 'you have not' seen this before, the aviation community is left in tatters worldwide and in my opinion will not recover in the short term.

[bluff]

IFR
Good to see a positive posting, but out of interest have you ever been sat around for years waiting for a letter or phone call?

I agree that the only way to guarantee failure is to give up, but I think that WWW is just trying to be realistic.

For all of you who are waiting for that letter or phone call, I spent years doing that in the early 90's, and worked illegally as an instructor in the States in the meantime. I just want to say to you to keep going, when it comes it will be worth it, it made me a better person for having to fight for it, and I appreciate every second they let me go flying.

[Stevepotts]

I applaud your post IFR. I totally agree with your testiment.

However, I also recognise the circumstances outlined by WWW. I myself qualified with a CPL/IR in 1990. I still recall receiving many positive letters from carriers in the late 1980's with virtual promises of jobs when I had completed my license. I also recall within months (following the Gulf crisis and subsequent recession) letters from the same companies asking me to write back when I had an ATPL and 1000 hrs on wide bodied jet to fly a Jetstream! It was grim but I remained with my old job, instructed in my spare time to gain experience and continued to apply for jobs.

In 1999 (at 36 yrs of age)I got my first two interviews and was made offers from both companies. One on a turboprop and the other a jet. I have been flying a jet for nearly 3 years and extremely pleased that I did not give up on my dream. Pilots more than any other occupation have a tendency to be pessimistic at times like these. Perhaps with just cause.

What I will say is that it boils down to how much you want to do the job. If you want to be a Pilot more than anything else then you will get that job! It may take a while but stick with it and continue to build hours, experience and contacts.

When all else fails... Perseverence prevails!

[Crash Barrier]

BF2,
If I had been in aviation for 5 minutes or 50 years is irrelevant. It is simply my 'opinion', I think my comment was spot on.

[InFinRetirement]

BillyFish2

I don't mind CrashBarrier making his comments, he is free to do that on PPRuNe as everyone is.

But I do take him up on one or two points.

The talk of an upturn 'round the corner' surely is premature, what wannabes nead to hear is sound solid advice from people in the know (supposedly like you), before they shell out loads of money that they cannot afford to pay back.

Show me where I said that an upturn was "round the corner"! What I did say was "think long and hard about what you want to do. Perhaps you could take it in short strides, one thing at a time". To take cognizance of what all the options are. But don't give up. There is no reason to do that.

The rest is made up out of context but so long as you are not abusive feel free. I am not ashamed of anything I have said, I have dealt in past FACTS, the facts of the future are outside my realm.

What WWW has said in essence is delay taking any steps that will cost you loads of money. I cannot disagree with that. But I do disagree if he suggesting that you should lay back and don't do anything at all. There is much that you can do while you wait to see what happens over the next month or so without spending heaps of money. It will be clearer then, much clearer.

I repeat what I said before. The bounce back might be more difficult, it might be longer than usual but it will happen. It must happen because there will always be airlines.

The savage cuts we are seeing now is very bad news but what can an airline do? There is NO alternative, they have to do it. But they will still operate and normality in it's different forms will return.

After all, do you imagine that when people's confidence returns, as it will, they won't want to get back to normal?

I stand by what I have said, I just wanted to clear up one or two points that I do not wish to be associated with. Especially when I didn't utter them!

[scroggs]

I think that if you study my, IFR's and WWW's posts you will see that we are all saying the same thing. There might be slight differences of emphasis, but not in the basic message. That is, if you haven't got it already: times are going to be very tough for a while. The length of the downturn might be 6 months, it might be 3 years. Who knows? But if you have the flexibility to delay the start of your integrated training, then you might like to consider doing so.
Those who have no choice but to enter the jobs market now or soon, you will be up against people like me for those jobs, at least for a while. I have 25 years in the flying business and over 9000 hours. I also have 20+ years flying still in me. There will be 300 others with varying amounts of serious jet experience in this market also out there. If anyone is recruiting within the next 12 months (and they will be, sooner or later), these 300 or more will be top of the list. Those of you with 200 hours and an fATPL are not going to be well-placed for a while.
But things will improve. Some of the redundant pilots will leave the business - there will be a fair few who are near retirement anyway. Some of the less strong-willed amongst the wannabes will also give up; this is just a fact of life. I would bet that the subsequent upturn in aviation will be as strong and almost as rapid as this downturn, but the question is when it will happen? Who knows.
At the end of the day, this is such an unusual situation that no-one has many answers we can rely on. It's a good time to wait for a while. However, if you've got a few bob you can spare (don't use your CDL!), you could do worse than buy BA shares at £1.40-odd. There are fortunes going to be made when they recover!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Gill Airways have gone into receivorship as of 11.30 this morning.

Best guess is that this releases around 40 experienced airline pilots onto the market. I wish them the very best of luck in finding alternative employment asap.

However this does mean for the average Wannabe that their application is now 40odd down the list.

Gentleman, this is not good.


WWW

[Crash Barrier]

IFR,
I seriously doubt that passenger 'confidence'
will ever return to the levels we have seen
prior to last weeks events. An attack such as this on the aviation industry has never been seen before, in terms of sheer scale and loss of life so publicly. It will be etched on our minds forever, so it is futile in my opinion to even consider wannabe training for the next 5 years at least, in any country.

How can you seriously compare these events to what has previously happened in the aviation industry ??? Previous events pale in comparison.

and of course there is the small matter of insurance policies, as being discussed on the Rumour forum......

[InFinRetirement]

CrashBarrier

I want to make one thing VERY clear. I have NO intention of arguing any of the points I have made.

Except that passenger confidence has always returned! Always, over the years, as figures published by the CAA show if you would like to spend a few pounds.

And the one thing I will NOT tolerate is anyone using my thread, posted in good faith, trying to put down the wannabes.

As Scroggs has said, we are basically talking the same language, but I happen to have a different view based upon 24 years of experience and historical data, which in it's own way, is what people who started NEW airlines, or rejuvinated their own, based ALL their decisions on. Scroggs quite rightly made the point that there will be pilots of high hours and such.

Historically, that does NOT prevent pilots with low hours entering the industry.

With some difficulty they have nearly always found a place. And let us not forget that high hours pilots have often been passed over for lower hours pilots to further save money.

Sorry Scroggs, but that is a fact that you, and people like you, might have to get used to. It helps the airline get back into profit if they seriously ALTER their pay scales. There no differential when it comes to survival.

[Red Snake]

It will recover, but it will take time. And it was really bad in 1991. I was on several transatlantic flights (as PAX) at the time when passenger loads were below 50 on 747s. No one was flying unless they had to. Corporate America was going through a really bad time as well, so business travel was well down. Most airlines were in trouble and some folded. That's exactly what we are seeing today.

When will it recover? Who knows, but many businesses are predicting an upturn (praying?) by the middle of next year. Business confidence will help the airlines (business travellers are guys who make yields look good). Consumer confidence and consumer travel will return after that - and it's nearly 2003.

It's going to be very difficult until at least then.

[ 20 September 2001: Message edited by: Red Snake ]

[scroggs]

Crash,
sorry, mate, but you're talking from out your arse! Whatever else characterises the air passenger market, long memory isn't a factor. The passengers will return, eventually, and in greater numbers than we had last year. Doubt me? I'm happy to bet many thousands of pounds on it! All of aviation history backs me up. Don't suggest that last week was the worst thing ever to hit aviation; tragic as it undoubtedly was, it bears no comparison to past wars - at least for now.
IFR - I'm well aware that I could be on the aviation scrapheap at 45, but I'm not planning on it! Virgin is a very mediocre payer, so I don't believe that staff remuneration is a major issue - unlike in the US airlines. And we don't have a preponderance of expensive, near-retirement pilots like BA. I plan to fight a while yet! But I most certainly agree that there will be opportunities even for the least experienced right now. Some airlines will always need to employ at the lowest rates, and therefore wannabes will always have a way in.
There are, though, problems to come that we haven't yet thought through. Insurance is the story of the day. The airlines have a long way to go to get through this.

[army427]

WWW, there is a banned book around somewhere called 'Self-administered Euthanasia' or something. Perhaps you should seek out a copy and spare us your doom and gloom rhetoric.

Every time someone contributes a vaguely optimistic message you just have to counter it with a pessimistic one of your own. Get a grip! :p

[ueo]

I think IFR has got it about right, the industry at present is in deep crisis, but it can and will recover. It is a matter of simple economics using the firing and hiring of airline staff and disposal of aging assets as a quick, yet easily recoverable financial buffer.

Some of the larger operators were showing signs of strain prior to these attrocities, their older aircraft proving expensive to operate, and causing them to re-examine their future strategies which until now were to modernise and expand their capabilities. The huge interest in the A380 ably demonstrated that. Until 10 days ago the big operators were thinking expansion and had done the market research to confirm this, despite a small forecast profit shortfall. So, why should everything become so black, so quickly, post the WTC terrorism? Money! Shares are in free fall, insurance is rocketing, and consumer confidence (bums on seats)is understandably low. What shrewd accountant would not take the opportunity to slash costs by removing aging aircraft, cutting routes and laying off staff, making swingeing cuts to save money whilst the industry is in chaos. Accountants would call it prudent. What has he got to lose, less routes means more bums on seats per aircraft, seats can be sold at premium prices and all done with a much reduced wages bill. Better still, over estimate the cuts required to maximise savings. The only people to be affected are those poor unfortunates who are laid off and the consumer.

What happens when consumer confidence returns? And it will, when recent events begin to recede in peoples minds, foreign holidays, business travel and the sheer convenience of air travel, which we have all enjoyed and taken for granted, will cause consumer demand to return to a more sensible level. There will be a steady re-employing of many of those thousands laid off to cover schedule re-expansion. Natural wastage within that group and those still in the industry, will still create the demand for new staff to continue to be trained.

The financial markets will dictate the speed of recovery, more than consumer confidence. The stupidity of the knee jerk reaction displayed by those institutions at the restart of Wall St trading cannot continue. The world has not stopped, businesses will continue to trade, and if for no other reason than defiance the economics of our vital industry will recover. It is too big, and too crucial to modern life not to.

Now for WW3!!!!

[scroggs]

ueo
Spot on! An excellent analysis. The only questions really are: how long will we have to wait for the inevitable recovery, and what effect will dramatically increased insurance rates have on the low-hour pilot market?
Sit on your hands, folks, for a while. Don't do anything too hastily, and wait and see what happens.

[Crash Barrier]

Scroggs,
I disagree, it is the single worst disaster attributed to terrorism in the aviation world and previous wars etc pale in comparison. It will take years (if ever) it recovers.

IFR
I do not want to argue, I am simply putting across my point of view, freedom of speech I guess. I bow to your vast wealth of experience and hope that you are right.

CB, I have deleted your last sentence because it was uneccessary.

PPRuNe Pop
[EMAIL][email protected][/EMAIL}

[ 21 September 2001: Message edited by: PPRuNe Pop ]

[wallup]

Funny thing is - I got an application form in the post this morning!!

I sent them a CV months ago, in fact I'd forgotten about it really, came as a shock I must say.

I know that competition for places is going to be much tougher, especially for low timers like yours truly, but opportunities are still there.

Keep on pushing

[InFinRetirement]

OK that's it you guys!

I started this thread in an air of uncertainty and worry for a vast number of people for whom I have a genuine concern.

Both CB and BF2 have bought personal unrelated problems into it which are unacceptable. It would be appreciated if you both erase your posts above this one, and if you then want to continue in the debate please do so.

If, however, you wish to continue to abuse each other please do so OFF this thread.

[cosmo kramer]

BillyFish, I don't know your and Crash Barrier's history, as I don't read much in the wannabe forum. But I for one agree with Crash Barrier.

This can not be compared to any of the disasters of the past. The Gulf war ended and that was that. This will never end. Even the CEO of British Airways has been so... well you decide, as to say "What we've seen in New York, the terrible tragedy in New York, may just be the first step in a longer campaign" - i.e terrorist will continue to crash planes into buildings (why don't he start looking for a new job already? CNN (http://europe.cnn.com/2001/WORLD/europe/09/20/eddington.interview.cnna/index.html)). How do you think that will affect the passengers perception of the security??

Furthermore, it will probably be more expensive to fly because of increased costs for better security, increased fuel prices and aircraft insurances. We have neither yet seen what lawsuits may arise from the disaster.

Add to all of the above, the increased traveling times, uncomfortableness and the risk of being arrested if a "smart" remark accidently slips (people tend to say stupid things if asked over and over again what is in their bags - clever? Something that you should go to jail for for 6 month?).

I think that aviation industry is in for the downturn of the history. Sad to say. People will re-prioritise, and find other ways of communicating (webcam?), spend hollidays at home or take their cars etc. etc.

I think it's sound advice to people with pilot dreams, to wait to see the upturn happening, if ever. Take a PPL instead and enjoy leisure flying.

What might take an upturn could be business, taxi and charter flights. Only yourself and people from your company = no terrorists.

[scroggs]

WW2, Korea and Vietnam were all far bigger than the campaign you will see between the world and the terrorist, with much greater effects on economic and human activity. Throughout, aviation continued and even prospered.
The events of 11th September do not compare to any of the above events in history. The loss of confidence has been profound and sudden, unlike the slower unfolding of events in those wars. Nevertheless, appropriate action will be taken to restore confidence and, as long as personal wealth contines to increase (and it will), passengers will return to the airlines. The historical trend of ever-increasing air traffic will eventually resume until and unless the world gets fed up with going on holiday, or moving freight, or we all get our own home holodecks.
If you want to give up, you are of course at liberty to do that, but your logic in doing so because of this one event is no better than that of the passengers who now don't want to fly, yet get in a car every day.

[clear prop!!!]

Absolutely right Scroggs.

Things will get better as they have in the past.

Another example which has not been mentioned is PanAm Lockerbie.

For months transatlantic routes had virtualy no takers whatsoever. Passengers slowly came back and confidence returned. Pan Am did'nt make it, but there were other factors in their demise.

It may look pretty tough at the moment but we have to think positive!

[bluff]

Things will get worse soon, I guess it all comes down to how much faith you have.

These terrorists are so well organised, do you not think that they will have anticipated an American response, and will have the next act ready to go?

Never give up on something you want, it might be prudent to wait and see, but things will improve, there will be jobs again. IFR is correct in that respect.
I still have a collection of over 500 rejection letters in the loft, every one of them hurt, just be patient.

[cosmo kramer]

Scroggs, why on earth would I give up my job they will have to carry my away! ;)

This is just advice to the young ones. Of course things will pick up at some point. The question they have to ask themselves is, can I pay off my 50k+ £ debt, if I have to wait 5 years before getting a job?

[3 putt]

Whilst recent events would turn the aviation cyle upside down at any stage,a lot of these jobs were going anyway.
I'm surprised we had it so good for so long lately.
As Rod said,B.A's response is based on gulf war lessons.They,like many other monoliths,were in the middle of streamlining measures anyway.The extra loses,over and above what was already planned,may well be re'absorbed in the short term.

Yes Crash Barrier,things are really bad after this awful event,but may not be as bad as you and the Airlines are making out.At least not for the middle term.
The Airlines are making their case as we speak to national and E.U government.They're Looking for cash,or by any other name,to throw after some carriers which should not survive anyway.
The insurance costs and increased security are a red herring.The insurance companies will still insure the carriers,but will limit third party terrorist exposure to $50M.With talk of government underwriting another unlikley event,the headlines today of grounded aircraft next tuesday are as o.t.t as the doomsayers here.Insurance costs have never been a burden and are allways passed onto the pax.
Security in the E.U is as good as it gets,and has been since Lockerbie.Can't see much more increased costs here that cannot be absorbed by Airlines,airport operators and local government.
Most airlines will have hedged their fuel costs also.
The net effect will be slightly increased fares,and none of this will stop me going on hol's next summer.

For wannabes,this will take 2/3 yrs to come around.It's been coming anyhow's.

Chins up!

[lightspeed]

Don't worry people that will be the last of Osama Airlines. There will be plenty of jobs in the not to distant future.

The reasons are:

1)People cannot drive over large distances all their lives. Remember air travel reduces "time".

2)People have friends, family, relatives and business associates across vast distances, whom they have to meet at some point in time (Christmas, thanks giving, easter, holidays, overseas business meetings etc......

3)All airlines will adopt stringent security measures at airports and on flights. A good example is Israeli airports where they use decompression chambers to detonate hidden bombs in bagage. Also El Al Airlines have long used under cover anti-terrorist agents on all flights to combat Palistinian terrorists. All Israelis turn up 3 hours before their flight. USA now hires airmarshalls and as we have seen, US passengers are required to turn up 3 hours early for screening.

I think people will get over this disaster after 1-2 years. For the time being people should continue their flight training and build up their hours. One thing is for sure in this industry, consistency and persistance will eventually pay off. :D

[lightspeed]

I came across this poem on this site (PPRUNE) and i dont know who wrote this poem but its a bloody good poem for times like these!!!!! Chins up and thumbs up!!!!!!

DON'T QUIT

When things go wrong, as they sometimes will,
When the road you're trudging seems all up hill,
When the funds are low and the debts are high,
And you want to smile, but you have to sigh,
When care is pressing you down a bit,
Rest, if you must - but DON'T you quit.

Life is queer with it's twists and turns,
As everyone of us sometimes learns,
And many a failure turns about,
When he might have won had he stuck it out;
Don't give up, though the pace seems slow -
You might succeed with another blow.

Often the goal is nearer than it seems to a faint and faltering man,
Often the struggler has given up when he might have captured the victor's cup.
And he learned too late, when the night slipped down, How close he was to the golden crown.

Success is failure turned inside out -
The silver tint of the clouds of doubt -
And you never can tell how close you are,
It may be near when it seems afar;
So stick to the fight when your hardest hit -
It's when things seem worst that you mustn't quit.

:D

[ 21 September 2001: Message edited by: lightspeed ]

[Fingerbang]

IFR is a gentleman. However, his job is clearly made more difficult when Nostradamus has apparantly been reborn in the form of WWW and CrshBrr. Obviously there is no hope.

[InFinRetirement]

Scroggs makes some sensible points which I totally agree with. Especially that consumer confidence will return. It has to, simple logic dictates it, because aeroplanes are the only means of transportation which makes any real sense to travellers. Cars trains and ships are an anathema to most people.

As I said before, this very sad event has decided for some airlines that which was always going to be a very difficult boardroom decision to make. To get rid of cost burdening equipment, and unecessary and costly people. Doesn't sound nice but running an airline is bloody tough. It is in fact another twist in the cycle of airline balance sheets.

It will be some days in my view, before we see a tiny glimpse of where the economy is actually going. But it will be a few weeks before the airlines show some signs of stability. But make no mistake, they will have to apply themselves to that particular problem PDQ!! Or they will fail. There are perhaps a dozen airlines in the UK that will be OK, but there are a few who may just have a problem!

I agree with advice not to pay out large sums of money, like the £56k that has been mentioned. But, as I said at the beginning you must consider your options, perhaps taking a step at a time with as little spent as possible - but do keep on the move. Don't be left behind.

However, do not give up. The recovery in the airlines will come, it always has. You need to pave your own path in the best way that suits you. Make your own decisions and judge any advice carefully. If you have to, seek further advice. My last piece is to put any pessimism you may have in the bin and slam the lid shut!

[clear prop!!!]

Well said IFR

Your last para says it all!

I can't believe the almost gleeful pessimism we have seen here from some who should know better!

Thanks for those rays of hope

[apple]

I`m going for ab-initio in Jan2002
And going for it
If you have to travel you travel?

[PanicButton]

I, my self am hopelessly optimistic but it´s always good to read threads like these!

Thanks IFR

[Funkie]

Hi all,

I thank the moderators for these posts as they help to keep our heads high, when there simply does not appear to be any light at the end of the tunnel. Until it re-appears, I'll keep flying, maybe a bit less, but will not stop.

Depending on what big W does this coming week, I may well rekindle that relationship with the lovely lass at the AFCO. I'm sure if the big-yin pushes the wee red button, the RAF will need some folks to play with their flying machines.

Thanks again to the mod's

Have faith all, our time will come.......

Fra

:) :) :)

[Speedbird1]

Hi all

IFR, i truly respect you sir and its people like you that keep the confidence of wannabes like me in the aviation industry.
Scroggs and WWW, i also thank you for your valuable advice.

Now, i`m starting in jan2002 and am naturally concerned as no one knows what the situation will be like in april 2003.
I`ve been a wannabe since i went with my dad on a trial flight when i was 5 years old. There is no chance in hell i am giving up. Yes i`m concerned but i`m hoping for the best.Does anyone have any advice for me as far as starting in jan is concerned.any advice would be much appreciated.

Apple, where are you starting in jan 2002. send us an e-mail at [email protected]

thank you all once again

[InFinRetirement]

I could not let the last post go without a thank you, which I do now. Most kind.

I have been determined to put something back into aviation for the very many years I have enjoyed in it. That is why I started the Fund, that is why I am as keen as anyone to see "our wannabes" succeed in the future. A future now that will be tough. But you will get there.

Just weigh everything you do against it crashing around your ears, and you with it.

Good luck. Thank you for your e-mails, I will answer each one.