War Between China and Japan?

[Boudreaux Bob]

US Military Leadership suggest China is gearing up for a short sharp War with Japan leading to destruction of Japanese Naval Forces and seizure of territory from Japan.

The United States is bound by Treaty to assist in the defense of Japan.

The big question is where are we going to get the Force Structure to do that?

Commander: U.S. military can?t conduct amphibious operations in the Pacific - Stripes - Independent U.S. military news from Iraq, Afghanistan and bases worldwide (http://www.stripes.com/commander-u-s-military-can-t-conduct-amphibious-operations-in-the-pacific-1.274419#.UzIb5dyKMoG)

http://www.navytimes.com/article/20140325/NEWS/303250079/Locklear-Attack-submarine-needs-going-unmet-Pacific

[gr4techie]

Why would China do that?

WW2 showed there's c**k all there in Japan, as it was totally dependant on importing raw materials.

[ORAC]

Why would China do that?

Revenge for Manchuria 1931-1945

Capture/Recovery of territory historically claimed as Chinese

Removal of the only major military obstacle to regional Chinese hegemony

Removal of the major regional staging ports for US forces in preparation for the capture/reclamation of Taiwan


Need any more?

[onetrack]

The Chinese are not that stupid, give them some credit.

[ReverseFlight]

No one wants Japan. It's radioactive !

[ORAC]

I find common sense and politics seldom go together - and the period since 2001 Has shown the age of international order has gone and power politics has returned, as demonstrated amply by both the USA and Russia, latterly in both Georgia and Ukraine.

Welcome to the 21st century, it's going to be a rough ride.

[Whenurhappy]

Perhaps China might be emboldened by the Great Crimean Land-Grab...however there is one difference: the US guarantees the security and integrity of Japan, and has the wherewithall in the Pacific to do so.

[Party Animal]

China has never been a nation that I have considered 'stupid' and this is really a nonsense story. Gearing up is one thing - having the intent to conduct offensive action is something entirely different.

Very clear and simple case of a American military leader arguing for more funding and assets and trying to find a reason to justify his argument.

Next!

[rh200]

the US guarantees the security and integrity of Japan, and has the wherewithall in the Pacific to do so.

Umm didn't they also sign a bit of paper on Ukraines integrity as well.

Frankely nothing guaranteed, its all if theres anything in for them.

[Not_a_boffin]

I think the issue might be that while the US guarantees the integrity of Japan itself, the current NCA has a track record of equivocation and lack of decisiveness.

This might lead certain people to believe that ownership of the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands is sufficiently contentious to be kicked into a UN long grass debate, rather than trigger a full-scale confrontation, should China execute a Crimean-style land grab.

If the Chinese objective is effective control of those islands and the exploitation of resource underneath them, mission accomplished.

That said, I suspect they'd have a very difficult time with the Japanese submarine force, which is more than capable of a sea denial campaign.

[ORAC]

Factor in the increasingly aggressive Chinese behaviour concerning other territorial claims to island groups in the region.

Philippines Rejects Chinese Demand to Remove Ship (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/philippines-rejects-chinese-demand-remove-ship-22909150)

Beijing's 'salami slicing' strategy speeds up in South China Sea (http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Beijings-salami-slicing-strategy-speeds-up-in-Sout-30230062.html)

China’s New Coastguard: Not Handing Out Many Carrots (But Definitely Starting to Wield a Big Stick) (https://www.rusi.org/analysis/commentary/ref:C52E144078437B/)

[CoodaShooda]

Looking at the ramping up of tensions over ownership of the South China Sea in recent months and culminating in the displays of (confected?) public anger over the loss of MH370, I'd be more concerned if I was Malaysian.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The Taiwanese will be 'liberated' first

[racedo]

China thinks long term so why worry about small short term issues, just stop buying US debt and a problem starts very quickly.

China offloaded significant amount of Debt in December 13 and could do easily again.
http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

As for Taiwan, China always viewed it as a province which broke out without agreement of rest of the nation, funnily enough this is the view being spouted about Crimea by the west.
China will quite happily turn this on the west stating that West must support it in its claim for reunification.

Would US sacrifice a foreign country rather than get embroiled in a nuclear exchange that could destroy one of its cities ........... I must admit to making a guess but that is a rational guess, not sure that rationality applies with buckets of instant sunshine.

[melmothtw]

As for Taiwan, China always viewed it as a province which broke out without agreement of rest of the nation, funnily enough this is the view being spouted about Crimea by the west.
China will quite happily turn this on the west stating that West must support it in its claim for reunification.


The art of doublespeak.

Taiwan never 'broke out' from communist China. If anything, it was the other way around. The nationanlist Chinese were the legitimate government of China at the time the communists seized power, forcing their withdrawal to Taiwan.

If it's reunification the People's Republic wants, then I'm sure the Republic of China would be willing to accomdate this on the proviso that the legitimate government is restored on the mainland.

[Lonewolf_50]

Taiwan never 'broke out' from communist China. If anything, it was the other way around. The nationanlist Chinese were the legitimate government of China at the time the communists seized power, forcing their withdrawal to Taiwan.
How familiar are you with Chiang and his crew, I wonder? Suggested reading is a book called "The Soong Dynasty." (ISBN (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Standard_Book_Number) 0-06-091318-5 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:BookSources/0-06-091318-5).) Read it years ago.

What went on in China after WW II was a civil war, a political power struggle. One side won, the other side lost. Also consider the book "Formosa Betrayed" to see how that played out across the straits.

Something similar (a civil war, political struggle settled in part by arms) happened in the British Isles in the fifteenth century. Should the descendants of Richard Plantagenet now demand that their house have the crown returned to it? :confused: Wait a sec, a war more recently waged in about 1948, and a few after, established by arms the right of Israel to certain territory. Should they now piss off since they are not the legitimate government of that land? :confused:

[melmothtw]

Something similar (a civil war, political struggle settled in part by arms)
happened in the British Isles in the fifteenth century. Should the descendants of Richard Plantagenet now demand that their house have the crown returned to it? :confused:



We had the Civil War in the seventeeth century also to thrash out the issue you list (talk about thread drift!). Seeing as you brought it up, my ancestors actually lost their lands in the Wars of the Roses, having backed the wrong horse so to speak, so I'm all for claiming the crown back if that's what you're suggesting.

I'll bow to your superior knowledge on China, as it's not really an argument I'm that inclined to have. My point was really in response to racedo trying to tie Taiwan into Crimea, where there is no similarity whatsoever, and certainly no hypocrisy with regard to the West's position on China/Taiwan and that of Russia/Ukraine/Crimea.

[Lonewolf_50]

Seeing as you brought it up, my ancestors actually lost their lands in the Wars of the Roses, having backed the wrong horse so to speak, so I'm all for claiming the crown back if that's what you're suggesting.
Good luck with all that. :ok:
My point was really in response to racedo trying to tie Taiwan into Crimea, where there is no similarity whatsoever The Chinese (Peoples' Republic of China) may see it differently than you or I, in terms of how valid they think their claim is to Taiwan (Republic of China). There are some distinct differences, however.

The Chinese on the Mainland do NOT have their fleet's home port on Taiwan at Kaoshung nor Keelung. ;) The pretext of "defending Mandarin speakers" of which there are a plentitude in Taiwan, is not going to meet the popular reception among Mandarin speakers there (Kuomintang sort to be sure, and some others) that you'd see in Crimea among some Russian speakers.

[melmothtw]

My point was really in response to racedo trying to tie Taiwan into Crimea,
where there is no similarity whatsoever, and certainly no hypocrisy with regard to the West's position on China/Taiwan and that of Russia/Ukraine/Crimea.




The Chinese on the Mainland do NOT have their fleet's home port on Taiwan at Kaoshung nor Keelung. ;)
The pretext of "defending Mandarin speakers" of which there are a plentitude in Taiwan, is not going to meet the popular reception among Mandarin speakers there (Kuomintang sort to be sure, and some others) that you'd see in Crimea among some Russian speakers.


I'd say we're in agreement.



Quote:





Originally Posted by melmothtwhttp://www.pprune.org/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.pprune.org/military-aircrew/536731-war-between-china-japan.html#post8402297)

Seeing as you brought it up, my ancestors
actually lost their lands in the Wars of the Roses, having backed the wrong
horse so to speak, so I'm all for claiming the crown back if that's what you're
suggesting.

Good luck with all that. :ok:


Thanks, not holding my breath.

[Fareastdriver]

The main priority for China today is not Taiwan, Japan or any other islands. The main problem China has is three quarters of a billion people looking at TV sets showing the spendours of the new China and asking,

Where is my share?

Any physical aggression will almost immediately close down their export markets to the United States and Europe. Forget about how many dollars China holds, that will be rearranged. What will happen is that over 100 million migrant workers will be out of a job hundreds of miles from home. One just has to see what the Chinese are like when they are uncertain where their relatives are to know what the reaction would be.

It will continue building up its armed forces and contrary to the UK improve the T&Cs to retain them. It is still a conscript force. There is a cadre of regulars who are prepared to make decisions much in the same way as Western forces but most just flow the party line and keep out of trouble.
The Nationaist have several small islands. the Matsu, off Xiamin which are well within artillery range but they haven't been shelled for decades.

There are a lot of thinkers in China at all levels. The days when the party could motivate the masses to make a political point have gone. One billion mobile phones took care of that.

The Continental Shelf off China is awash with gas and oil. I know, I flew with it for fifteen years. The whole point of the discussions is the control of these resources. China has the advantage of three thousand years of recorded history so it can claim anywhere in the Far East on the basis of ancient writings but using this as a reason for taking possession would not be tolerated in the modern world.

It will keep blustering along. It will keep pressing its claims and there will be more diplomatic incidents but the territory will be of no use to anybody if you cannot get underneath. China is not self-sufficoent in oil but at the moment is has as much as its own oil industry can handle.

[Mr Grimsdale]

This looks like an interesting development and novel way (if your pockets are deep enough) of going about claiming sovereignty...

Designs of China's planned base on Mabini Reef surface | Headlines, News, The Philippine Star | philstar.com (http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2014/06/04/1330967/designs-chinas-planned-base-mabini-reef-surface)

China's Island Factory (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/2014/newsspec_8701/index.html)