Military 'may have to abandon flood-prone bases'

[Willard Whyte]

.. climate change find that RAF Brize Norton and the Royal Navy's bases at Plymouth and Portsmouth could face the risk of flooding by 2020.

Good job they didn't put all the AT eggs in one basket...



Can't cut'n paste the text as I'm a cheapskate who's reached their limit on this months free articles.

[onetrack]

I can't see anything detrimental about a Navy base going under water! That can then be classed as "on-the-job" training!! :)
And the RAF base can simply be converted into a Navy base, too! Where's the "outside-the-square" thinking, of your national defence leaders?? :rolleyes:

[Wensleydale]

Typical Navy - fancy having coastal bases that are too near the sea! What were they thinking of? :uhoh:

[Whenurhappy]

Bring back the Saunders-Roe jet float plane fighter.

The Western Jetties at Portsmouth, built for the QEC class carriers, were designed with sea-level rise in mind, so in reality that won't be a problem. However, the design life is. They were designed with a 60 year life, based on metal loss of the piles through corrosion (no corrosion protection) and will have been in place for over 20 years by the time the carriers enter service. Now the Nelsonian jetties and docks are a mere 230 years old and still in use. short sighted?

[ORAC]

Which reminds me of Leuchars in the F4 days. There were spare war time underwing fuel tanks in wooden crates scattered around the peri-track, slowly rotting away. Visitors would sometimes ask what they were.

Floats, I would explain solemnly. In case of the runway being severely careered and unusable, the F4s could be winched up and a float placed under each wheel. The airfield would then be flooded from the estuary allowing the F4s to be flown off, the floats being dropped out to sea before the undercarriage was retracted......

[FantomZorbin]

RAF Sealand went up and down with the tide!! :ooh:

[NutLoose]

One would say bulldoze Carterton and build a flood bank, but no point really if your pax can't get there.

[Ken Scott]

A trifle scare-mongering this report, 'leaked' from FoI requests by a climate campaigner for Friends of the Earth & based on the 2007 floods when the Brize Norton runway was indeed flooded (coincident with the then CAS addressing a meeting of former CASs & in reply to a question 'what happens if the runway is closed?' stated 'that categorically could not happen'!) This year it's not happened despite heavier rainfall & much of the farmland a little way to the south having been underwater since Christmas.

As to Portsmouth & Plymouth bases being at risk from flooding? I guess proximity to the sea is in some way important to the Navy........

The surprise entry for me though was Akrotiri. The elevation of the threshold at Rwy 10 is around 56ft & similar but slightly higher at the other end, so hardly likely to disappear under rising sea levels for a few years unless there's a 50ft dip in the middle that I don't remember.

[Pontius Navigator]

Ballykelly managed and with read rail access too :) Chemical toilets got around the sceptic tank issue.

[Lima Juliet]

This article is complete junk and I thought better of the Torygraph...

Milder winters in future could lead to an increase in numbers of Canada geese at the MoD’s offices at Abbey Wood in Bristol. This could result in the birds colliding with buildings on the site
Military 'may have to abandon flood-prone bases' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/flooding/10654272/Military-may-have-to-abandon-flood-prone-bases.html)

Who gives a rat's arse about Canada Geese hitting buildings? What makes Abbeywood's buildings more likely to be hit than any other 3 storey buildings in and around Bristol (or the rest of the country). Canada Geese aren't flying into buildings on a regular basis at other locations where they already flock - unless of course all the ones at Abbeywood are blind! :ugh:

LJ

[BEagle]

Typical envirofundamentalist clap trap peddled by the woolly-hatted warmist sandalistas.....

Weren't we supposed to be having 'the coldest winter for years' in 2014?

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I can assure you we only export the finest quality, building-aware Canada Geese. We do have buildings here too; it's not all igloos ;)

[goudie]

One would say bulldoze Carterton

What! And do 500 quids worth of damage!

[500N]

"Typical envirofundamentalist clap trap peddled by the woolly-hatted warmist sandalistas....."

+ 1


In many years of catching hundreds of thousands of Canada geese in the UK, I have yet to hear of one colliding with a building !!!

The mind boggles where they come up with some of this crap.

[Old Bricks]

Surely now is the time to get ahead of the game! If we reopen Binbrook, concentrate all AT (and every other aircraft that the RAF will have by 2020) into Waddington, then airfield operating costs will be minimalized and Binbrook can be the diversion - albeit with a substantial runway extension and more parking. Problem solved - no danger of flooding - immense cost savings - RAF confined to Lincolnshire.
Must go now - sandals getting wet and more trees to hug.

[NutLoose]

BINBROOK!!! The rain passes over Binbrook horizontal on route to Brize.

[racedo]

Milder winters in future could lead to an increase in numbers of Canada geese at the MoD’s offices at Abbey Wood in Bristol. This could result in the birds colliding with buildings on the site

Suggest someone tell the Caterers that Turkey is off menu next Christmas and its Canadian Goose..............

[racedo]

If only the navy had some floating airfields then everything would be ok:rolleyes:

They could call them Carrier of Aircraft or something like that.:cool:

[Warmtoast]

BEagle

Weren't we supposed to be having 'the coldest winter for years' in 2014?

A couple of months ago the Met Office told councils to expect a 'drier than normal' Winter -
here: Met Office told councils to expect a 'drier than normal' Winter - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/flooding/10653092/Met-Office-told-councils-to-expect-a-drier-than-normal-Winter.html)

I reckon the met office's seaweed forecaster got it wrong - better next time - perhaps!

[NutLoose]

racedo

Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Darkest Surrey
Posts: 3,112
If only the navy had some floating airfields then everything would be ok

They could call them Carrier of Aircraft or something like that.


Or they could sail them down and scuttle one in Portsmouth harbour, thus giving them a raised runway that wouldn't flood, they could also be used as office space, one bridge no longer being required. The other one could be scuttled in the lower Thames, thus satisfying the requirement for the London Runway in the marshes. :O

[2Planks]

(off topic) Willard - I find if I clear the cookies I get another 10 :ok:

[Wander00]

Met Office told councils to expect a 'drier than normal' Winter - Telegraph (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fmilitary-aircrew%2F534590-military-may-have-abandon-flood-prone-bases.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.telegraph.co.uk%2Fearth%2Fflooding%2F10 653092%2FMet-Office-told-councils-to-expect-a-drier-than-normal-Winter.html&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fmilitary-aircrew-57%2F)


Someone in Government has missed a trick - have not heard them blame the Met Office yet for not warning them

[langleybaston]

QUOTE: BINBROOK!!! The rain passes over Binbrook horizontal on route to Brize.

a geography and/ or meteorology refresher is recommended.

or Binbrook isn't where I left it, or Brize come to that!

As an ex-Metman of great wisdom and experience, I can divulge that long-range forecasts are useless, always have been, and always will be. The Office has been struggling, totally unsuccessfully, to produce them ever since I courted Mrs LB 55 years ago: she was in the "laboratory" [Met O 12] that was tasked solely with providing just such forecasts. Meanwhile I was next door in Met O 11 running the Ferranti Mercury Mainframe engaged in producing useful short-range stuff that was and still is the world leader.

I shudder to think how much time, energy and money has been spent on the chimera of long range forecasts.

They cannot really stop my pension, can they?

[awblain]

Are geese really stupid enough to hit buildings now? If not, then a modest change in temperature won't make any difference. Then again, given some of the procurement going on, I would think a few solid geese slaps to the head are long overdue at the MoD anyway.

The Navy's docks will need to stay ocean-proximate. If the ocean goes up a bit, then that's just life…

[NutLoose]

Base hangar with its underfloor heating will make a damn good sauna :)

[Union Jack]

I can't see anything detrimental about a Navy base going under water!

Especially Devonport, which is after all a submarine base ....:D

Jack

[NutLoose]

Be nice to see the Victory floating again.

[Background Noise]

Good job we got rid of Lyneham :rolleyes:

Trouble with high airfields is they are in cloud all day!

[gr4techie]

RAF Sealand went up and down with the tide!!

So does Bae Warton. The ground moves by one or two millimetres.

Where Warton bolts together sections of Typhoon, they have such a close tolerance that the shop floor moves on computer automated jacks and fricken laser beams compensate for the daily up and down motion.

http://www.baesystems.com/article/BAES_045041/Typhoon-moon?_afrLoop=119971091856000&_afrWindowMode=0&_afrWindowId=Zyny82Xm&baeSessionId=Tz8QTLfhmp5x3vDPfcy1NpG2pTrZpj1m2mXvp1pXpxWgcRZ MXGKX!1081670363#%40%3F_afrWindowId%3DZyny82Xm%26baeSessionI d%3DTz8QTLfhmp5x3vDPfcy1NpG2pTrZpj1m2mXvp1pXpxWgcRZMXGKX%252 11081670363%26_afrLoop%3D119971091856000%26_afrWindowMode%3D 0%26_adf.ctrl-state%3D100ivb3byl_4

[Roland Pulfrew]

Well Kinloss used to have a small geese problem; don't ever remember any of them flying into any buildings though!!

[racedo]

Base hangar with its underfloor heating will make a damn good sauna :)

What would be required to turn it into a Jacuzzi ?

[NutLoose]

Probably weld up the doors, then run a Voyager's bleed air off through some hoses, must be tons lying about as they're not doing a lot these days

[awblain]

Where Warton bolts together sections of Typhoon, they have such a close tolerance that the shop floor moves on computer automated jacks and fricken l@ser beams compensate for the daily up and down motion.

Sheer PR brilliance. "Our factory's falling to bits" is mysteriously translated to "blah, laser beams on sharks, blah, blah, high tech blah…."

It matters not what is the absolute position of the two bits to be stuck together, but their relative position. The claimed "matchstick distance off correct" is still quite a lot for a Typhoon, and way more than 2mm in the radius of the Earth.

[gr4techie]

Awblain... Still, the tolerance of the Typhoon is much better than Hawker Siddeley ever managed with all the different shapes and sizes of Nimrod.

[NutLoose]

Anything under an inch would be better then.

[big v]

Anyone remember Ploce?

[Hangarshuffle]

True. I read it this morning, thankful that I never actually bought the thing. Very little worth reading in it except Clive James and I am increasingly confused as to its target audience. Ex-Public schoolboys and girls, mostly I guess.*






* not a pop at this particular tribe, just seems to be all about them, all the time.

[Danny42C]

(Ref: #10) Quote:

"Who gives a rat's arse about Canada Geese hitting buildings? What makes Abbeywood's buildings more likely to be hit than any other 3 storey buildings in and around Bristol (or the rest of the country). Canada Geese aren't flying into buildings on a regular basis at other locations where they already flock - unless of course all the ones at Abbeywood are blind!"

Or under Air Traffic Control ? :8

(Couldn't resist - sorry !)

[N2erk]

Roland- if Kinloss had a 'small' goose problem, perhaps they were Lesser Canada Geese, possibly a more situationally-aware variety. :D:D

[500N]

Well, I did a quick Google and can find one reference to Canada Geese flying into a building and that is the Sands Apartment building in Scarborough, Yorkshire.

And not the whole building, just one end that was painted a very light grey
and blended perfectly with the skyline as the geese flew out to sea.

[bcgallacher]

It's a good thing that pigeons are not the size of Canada geese as they regularly try to fly through my living room windows. The impact on the glass is enough to set off the burglar alarm system as well as leaving the impression of a very surprised pigeon on the pane. Only one survived - the good people of the RSPB revived and released it. Once got involved with a P&W JT 9 that took 3 geese in the fan at JFK - much bent and torn titanium.

[GreenKnight121]

Not to mention a certain Airbus taking off from LaGuardia.

[Lima Juliet]

Yes, but Abbeywood has no runway, nearby Filton's runway was broken up last year and they plan to build 2,500 homes on it.

I say again, who gives a rat's arse about geese at Abbeywood!

LJ

[The Helpful Stacker]

Anyone remember Ploce?

Ah, Ploce Deathcamp. Blue asbestos, rivers of turds and dead horses a go-go.

"Lets dig a bund into a landfill, what could go wrong?"

[Mr C Hinecap]

Typical envirofundamentalist clap trap peddled by the woolly-hatted warmist sandalistas.....

Weren't we supposed to be having 'the coldest winter for years' in 2014?

You are a bright chap. You know the difference between 'climate' and 'weather' don't you?

Climate change is happening. The MoD has to look at it with a view to future capabilities and indeed future conflicts. The US military got the message a long time ago because of the real risk to it's own capabilities.

[airpolice]

What about Linton?

Although the airfield is mostly fine, the road access to it, particularly from the North West, and South East, is not good when the tide comes in.

[B Fraser]

"Meanwhile I was next door in Met O 11"


Mr Baston, I was on the other side of the quad in 08 and 19 at "Brackers" until I went off to do something more profitable.


The computers that predicted the dry winter in Somerset are using a very similar model to those predicting global warming. It speaks volumes don't you think !

[chopper2004]

http://http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g209/longranger/Mobile%20Uploads/2014-02/96EB9541-73E4-4611-A168-EDBD28C7C50C_zpshttd4pew.jpghttp://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g209/longranger/Mobile%20Uploads/2014-02/96EB9541-73E4-4611-A168-EDBD28C7C50C_zpshttd4pew.jpg

http://http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g209/longranger/Mobile%20Uploads/2014-02/96EB9541-73E4-4611-A168-EDBD28C7C50C_zpshttd4pew.jpg

Remember this USN proposal ? Lol :)

[Lima Juliet]

Climate change is happening

It's been happening for years...you'd think we'd be used to it by now! :ugh:

Look at the first graph below I wonder if it was King Canute that was using his gas-guzzling 4x4 to keep the sea back, or King Alfred's burning cakes that caused the last rise in temperature???

Or maybe it was the Caveman farts 8,000 years ago in the second graph that caused the 1.5 degree rise?

I'm not a climate change deny-er, but I don't quite have the same cataclysmic view that some of BEags' "Sandalista" would have you believe! :ok:

LJ

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c1/2000_Year_Temperature_Comparison.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ca/Holocene_Temperature_Variations.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Ice_Age_Temperature.png

[Lima Juliet]

The computers that predicted the dry winter in Somerset are using a very similar model to those predicting global warming. It speaks volumes don't you think !

Yup, I believe it can go either one of 3 ways:

1. We'll all fry and be extinct within 500 years

2. We'll all drown because of a biblical flood.

3. The Earth will react to the increase in green-house gases and as long we get to a point of balance then so will the Earth and things will go back to the historical norms. Like it always has done following meteor strikes and huge volcanic eruptions.

LJ

[kintyred]

Spot on LJ!
Palaeloclimatology is an absolutely fascinating subject and while there's no denying that the earth has warmed over the past 70 years or so there's still a lot of work to be done to work out why and what the future holds.
A Hampshire airfield's met station was moved a few years ago and the surroundings were different from the original location. No comparison was made over any length of time to work out what the effect on temperature, wind, rainfall was but the Station still claims to have weather records dating back 60 odd years. No doubt the effect of moving the instruments was small but there was no attempt to quantify it (care to comment Langley Baston?). Clearly alterations of the surroundings of many long-established stations will have had an impact on their readings...the so heat-island effect but also change of use of agricultural land are examples.
A further thought is that the Carboniferous period of geological history was was one of the warmest and yet the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was negligible.
Finally it looks as though ice ages commence with global temperature falls of about 10 degrees in the space of a few decades. I'm not saying it will happen but that would certainly make your eyes water!!

[awblain]

Lordy, people…

Predicting dry/wet winters is difficult. Atmospheric dynamics on day-month scales is chaotic.

Energy conservation on decade scales is easy. Knowing where warming will occur is difficult, but on average - it's getting warmer.

What happened 1000 years ago isn't of too much relevance. It's the 100 years in front of us that matters.

The condition for a starting an ice age is probably simple - winter snow stays through the summer in the high-latitude northern hemisphere. Off to on in a few seasons. Not so likely with current temperatures.

[kintyred]

Awblain,

I'd love to know what the climate will be in 100 years but the simple truth is that our current knowledge/ technology is not up to that sort of prediction. Seeing how climate has changed in past and trying to work out why is part of the learning process to predict the future...and it's fascinating!

Ice ages commenced from just the sort of climate that we are currently experiencing. You've described the process of establishing an ice age but not the catalyst...we need to keep investigating the past to work out whether it could happen again. Remember that global warming is predicted to be of the order of a few degrees - I can't see that stopping the onset of an ice age.

[awblain]

Energy conservation has been known about for a long time.

It's all it takes to understand global temperature on climate scales, absenting the onset of an ice age. And that is not likely to happen at present, owing to unprecedentedly high summer temperatures over the whole Arctic. You need to make it through a whole not-completely melted taiga summer to set it up, and that's not likely.

Melting permafrost can change the current situation quite the other way.

Detailed predictions of weather patterns in 100 years from now are hard, but it's very very likely it'll be warmer than it is now.

[A2QFI]

At 288 ft amsl how is that ever going to happen, never mind "by 2020"?

[Roland Pulfrew]

At 288 ft amsl how is that ever going to happen

Well given that the rainfall that closed RAF Innsworth and caused the Gloucester floods in (was it?) 2007 also closed the A40 at Witney (fortunately just after I had driven through the flooded section) then maybe! Think rainfall not rising sea levels.

[Sandy Parts]

phew - with all the 'risk' of flooding, lucky the 'future of the RAF' whizjet boys are moving from Leuchars. Now as long as they don't somehow end up at another coastal low-lying base, they'll be safe for years to come...

[Metman]

Weren't we supposed to be having 'the coldest winter for years' in 2014?

Ahh BEagle old chap, you've confirmed yourself as a Daily Depress reader - the paper who persist with their not-in-the-slightest-bit-exagerated doom laden headlines from the bloke-in-a-shed weather "forecaster" that proved to be completely wrong on pretty much every occasion. Even seaweed would have given a better prediction!

The headlines do make us chuckle at work, although it worries us a little that people think it's us making those predictions!

As for the Daily Heil's and Depress' claims about the seasonal forecast being wrong, well, they're cherry picking from something they don't understand to make news out of nothing and find someone else to blame - oh, and coincidentally try to claim they got it right (they didn't - as you say, remember the aforementioned coldest winter on record headlines they ran?)

Hopefully not too many people believe every word they read.... Oh, they do? :ugh:

[kintyred]

Awblain,

What would the scientific community's prediction have been for the climate at the height of the little ice age 300 years ago? No doubt they would have said it was very, very likely that we were heading for a full-blown ice age. I'm not saying the earth is not warming...and if it is warmer in 100 years you will write and let know, won't you?

[langleybaston]

Perhaps metman would care to post the exact wording of the official Met Office winter prediction?

here is one who would certainly understand it.

thinks ....... is this the same Met Office team that promised a BBQ summer? Thought so.

Regarding moving Met instruments on a military base, this is usually driven by customer requirements, which the SMetO should resist, but the bottom line is that he is only the hired hand.
The really nasty instrument to muck about with is the anemo, either moving it, or allowing new and large structures to be sited within a few hundred metres of the mast. Not good for the customer at all.
This happened at an Eastern civil airfield for which I had over-arching Met. responsibility, and I refused to sign the annual certificate of metworthiness [not that it was called that officially].
My boss signed it so that was OK., it was safe after all.
I have never ever flown out of or into that airfield since.

[kintyred]

Thank you LB

[Mr C Hinecap]

What would the scientific community's prediction have been for the climate at the height of the little ice age 300 years ago?

Let's use less dramatic terms shall we? It was, on average, about 1 deg C cooler than it is now. That is all the change it takes to really mess with things.

[awblain]

If there was indeed a "little ice age", and it's not clear it's a global feature, then without a "white tundra summer", there would be no sign of an onset.

Currently, blue arctic ocean summers and melting permafrost are rather more of a concern.

[Lima Juliet]

There's also the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to screw with our weather - this was only discovered 90 odd years ago. Plus the magnetic pole is due a flip as well as an ice age or a super-tsunami.

Finally, a large meteorite is overdue that could stop global warming; either by wiping out a large amount of the population (and their carbon emissions) or by throwing up loads of material into the atmosphere that will block the warming from the sun.

Finally, fossil fuels will dwindle and other sources of energy will need to be used. So in 50-100 years time when we all have cold fusion reactors powering our cars, ships, trains and planes, then the problems of the 'sandalista' will need to change tack.

I would rather bet on West Ham winning the Premiership 3 times over the next 100 years than try to predict what the weather/climate/environment has in store over the same time period.

LJ :ok:

[kintyred]

I'll give you no better than evens on the Hammers, LJ, the future is almost impossible to predict, as your quick handful of variables so eloquently indicates.

[Lima Juliet]

You're very generous my friend - I'll take those odds! :ok:

[cornish-stormrider]

Langley old chap, as A non merman weather guesser who was mainly in Atlantic lows deep and far out giving good surf could you elaborate as to why moving or blocking your widget matters so much please

I am a curious george!

[kintyred]

Let's put a tenner on it then. I'll buy a canoe with my winnings and I'm going to save a fortune on my heating bills by all accounts!

[NutLoose]

Quote:
Weren't we supposed to be having 'the coldest winter for years' in 2014?
Ahh BEagle old chap, you've confirmed yourself as a Daily Depress reader - the paper who persist with their not-in-the-slightest-bit-exagerated doom laden headlines from the bloke-in-a-shed weather "forecaster" that proved to be completely wrong on pretty much every occasion. Even seaweed would have given a better prediction!

The headlines do make us chuckle at work, although it worries us a little that people think it's us making those predictions!

As for the Daily Heil's and Depress' claims about the seasonal forecast being wrong, well, they're cherry picking from something they don't understand to make news out of nothing and find someone else to blame - oh, and coincidentally try to claim they got it right (they didn't - as you say, remember the aforementioned coldest winter on record headlines they ran?)

Hopefully not too many people believe every word they read.... Oh, they do?

Well you might be a MetMan, but this is in effect the winter of 2013 as traditionally the seasons run Spring, Summer, Autumn ( or fall for the colonies) then Winter..
So you have about another 10 months until we actually hit Winter 2014, or does your piece of seaweed on the washing line predict that far forward? :p

[langleybaston]

International standard measurement of wind at 10m above ground [up a steel lattice mast in UK], ideally near runway ......... customer iffy about anything near runway so mast sited a LONG way from significant obstructions which could disturb wind flow. Obstructions certainly do give values untypical of those at the runway, sometimes blanking gusts, sometimes giving "false" gusts, and very often giving wrong wind direction, even reversal.
In extreme cases, the sudden arrival of a sea breeze or a storm down-draft may not be picked up in time. RAF Nicosia really needed two anemos, one at each end! The sea breeze was often massive, slamming doors and blowing off the staish's cap.

[racedo]

I would rather bet on West Ham winning the Premiership 3 times over the next 100 years than try to predict what the weather/climate/environment has in store over the same time period.

Yup can just see Hammers celebrating around Upton Park:E

[Lima Juliet]

LangleyB

Isn't the rule of thumb for obstacles from a windsock or anemometer 10 times the obstruction height? Ie. 6m obstruction must be 60m from obstruction?

Also, I seem to remember that there are factors to apply if your wind measurement isn't at the prescribed 10m. If it's less then you apply a factor of greater than 1 and if it is more than 10m then you apply a factor of less than 1. Ie. 8m wind measurement of 8kts is multiplied by 1.1 and so the actual wind is observed at 8.8kts? (My factor may not be the right factor, but you get my drift?)

LJ

[Lima Juliet]

In fact, I found the Met Observer's Handbook on the Met Office website and it is add 10% for a mast between 5-7m, add 20% for 3-4m and a massive 30% for 1-2m (ie. a handheld anemometer - I bet many didn't know that!).

LJ

[Shackman]

LB - Nicosia would probably have been better without one at all! In the summer you could have the anemometer reading just about zero, and the windsocks at either end showing approx 30 - 40 kts - only 180 degrees different (the sea breeze from both east and west coasts and a temp of +40C or more)! However, about 500ft up you could almost sit in autorotation and still climb.

[FrustratedFormerFlie]

And the award for the most flood-safe airfield goes to - good ole Little Rissington, highest UK runway AMSL as I recall?

[Metman]

NutLoose said:
Well you might be a MetMan, but this is in effect the winter of 2013 as traditionally the seasons run Spring, Summer, Autumn ( or fall for the colonies) then Winter..
So you have about another 10 months until we actually hit Winter 2014, or does your piece of seaweed on the washing line predict that far forward?

It wasn't me who said winter of 2014, it was BEagle! I'm innocent. Soooo innocent. Bah.

and LangleyB:
Perhaps metman would care to post the exact wording of the official Met Office winter prediction?

here is one who would certainly understand it.

thinks ....... is this the same Met Office team that promised a BBQ summer? Thought so.

More than likely the same team, yes, but at least we aren't trumpeting research and experimental forecasts all over the news as fact this time... It doesn't mean they're not at least a little useful as a form of guidance and doesn't mean they shouldn't be used, but you and I both know, they're caveatted heavily and not really suitable for public or press consumption yet because, being probablistic, they're very much open to misintepretation, particularly by those with a long standing grudge. Maybe one day they'll be suitable, maybe not. So I guess we've learned something from the BBQ summer debacle!

And no, I don't care to post the exact wording... 1. I quite like my job, 2. its not my area of expertise, and 3. I'm sure you know what our intranet site is like and how hard it is to find stuff.... ;)

[langleybaston]

QUOTE:

Isn't the rule of thumb for obstacles from a windsock or anemometer 10 times the obstruction height? Ie. 6m obstruction must be 60m from obstruction?

From memory that may be the internationally agreed MINIMUM separation.

It takes no account of the width or density [think trees] of the obstruction, and is a long way from best practice. Height has a big effect on gustiness, width a big effect on direction and gustiness.

Regarding probabilistic forecasts, the great unwashed have a deep instinctive knowledge of probability, as witness racing odds, National Lottery and many life events. The great unwashed also recognise a lot of time and money being spent on unsound science.

[MadsDad]

FFF.

Little Rissington 730ft/223 Metres AMSL
Dunkeswell* 839ft/256 Metres AMSL

It may not be long but it is a surfaced runway

[FrustratedFormerFlie]

MadsDad
"Little Rissington 730ft/223 Metres AMSL
Dunkeswell* 839ft/256 Metres AMSL"

Aye, but that's at the threshold. What about the ruddy great hump in the middle!:)

[MadsDad]

FFF, to be honest never been to Little Rissington, but the drainage at Dunkeswell (200 foot + deep valleys to the North and South to provide drainage, with the runway at the top of the hill more or less) would lead me to believe that they aren't going to have flooding problems there* in the near future.

* Except for the potholes in the car park last time I was there, but that's a different story.

[kintyred]

Watch out though, that's where the glaciers will start forming first.