Something positive

[Rob 747]

bit of an interesting read for us wannabees!!

TEN GOOD REASONS WHY TRAINING IN RECESSION MAKES SENSE


The long time scale involved in training means that you’re good and ready by the time the market turns like it always does eventually.


Because so many people will put off training because of uncertainty, there will be relatively less competition for jobs.


By getting in with an airline early on in the cycle, you are protected from when the next recession comes. Airlines work on last in first out principles.


Flying schools are fighting over business resulting in price reductions to attract business.


The US dollar is usually relatively low against the pound making foreign training cheaper.


Cheaper loans are usually available as banks also fight for business.


By training in stages combined with temporary employment improves the cash flow of your project and keeps it on the go.


Employers make unpaid leave more available usually depending on the job.


Redundancy can often be a sign of fate. An opportunity to force yourself into that long dreamed of change in career.


many airline pilots who have used these principles. While less senior colleagues around me worry about losing their command or even their job altogether.These are not just words of encouragement- I can tell you here and now that I am a living testament to this strategy. Sure, it meant that things were a struggle for a while in the early days but it paid off in the end.

I DID NOT WRITE THIS, NOR DO I INTEND TO PRETEND I DID!!!!
:D :D

I think i believe this guy though! :D :p :p

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Rob, nice to see someone remaining upbeat. I don't want to piddle on your campfire BUT I couldn't help but think the following...


TEN GOOD REASONS WHY TRAINING IN RECESSION MAKES SENSE


The long time scale involved in training means that you’re good and ready by the time the market turns like it always does eventually.

And whilst you are waiting for that market to turn up you have to service the debt from your training. You also have to keep your IR and multi ratings current. The clock is also ticking on your ATPL exam credits.

Because so many people will put off training because of uncertainty, there will be relatively less competition for jobs.

Well the competition for jobs will include 94 ex-Gill, 160 ex-Virgin, 110 ex-BMi and untold other professional qualified and experienced pilots. Who will be ahead of you in the queue. Not to mention all the people who like you trained anyway and will not have found work.

By getting in with an airline early on in the cycle, you are protected from when the next recession comes. Airlines work on last in first out principles.

Correct.

Flying schools are fighting over business resulting in price reductions to attract business.

I have not seen a single price cut in courses either at PPL or ATPL level. What I have seen is schools going bust and students loosing money. Staff are harassed worried and stressed which means the atmosphere is not as happy as it was this time last year in the countrys flying clubs/

The US dollar is usually relatively low against the pound making foreign training cheaper.

Eh? Wrong way around surely? Today a pound only buys you about $1.45 to spend on US training. Last year your pound bought you £1.60ish to spend on US training...

Cheaper loans are usually available as banks also fight for business.

Umm, have you spoken to any bank managers lately and tried asking for a loan to become and airline pilot?!?! They, ahem, are a little more sceptical as all they see on the news and on hear on the radio are reports of airlines going bankrupt...

By training in stages combined with temporary employment improves the cash flow of your project and keeps it on the go.

Yes but you can do that during the good times as well. In fact it is easier then than trying to pick up ad hoc work in a recession. Surely?

Employers make unpaid leave more available usually depending on the job.

I suppose if that suits your circumstances it might be useful. However in general its rarely convenient for your salary to stop just as you start writing training cheques for £10's thousands...

Redundancy can often be a sign of fate. An opportunity to force yourself into that long dreamed of change in career.

Nah. Thats just trite rubbish aimed at making you feel better. Redundancy is a real bummer. Period.



Capt PPRuNe trained through the last flying recession and it worked out really well for him. It is correct that its nice to get some seniority for the next recession.

However, it was an awful lot easier being a Wannabe prior to Sept 11th.

Thats why I reckon you are best off staying out of the storm for a while, go off and earn some money (become a plumber I reckon) and then leap back in to flying as a career in 3 or 4 years time when things really are picking up.

Good luck,

WWW

[Rob 747]

WWW
So you think i should cancel my trip to ATA next summer then?? :( :(

Anyway back to the post!.

These are not my opinions. They are a simple 'Cut and Paste' from a certain website!!.
I am sure you can gues which one!! :D :D :D

[ 15 November 2001: Message edited by: Rob 747 ]

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Well Rob that depends on your personal circumstances. I certainly would not think it worthwhile to get your IR for at least another 18 months.

Lets get the winter over with then we'll see how the IT market pans out and then some semi sensible guesses can be made.

Cheers,

WWW

[redsnail]

Rob 747,
If you starting at ATA in April 02, you won't be finished the JAR ATPL groundschool untill Oct 02 at the very earliest. Instead of being in a mad rush to get all the flying done, you can keep an eye on the "clock" and do your flying when it suits. Just note the time frame you have to have the IR completed.
From what I can gather, you have a fair bit of time up your sleeve to weather this storm.
Remember, it's your choice and what you are happy with.

[InFinRetirement]

Too much advice and too much negativity. It leads to confusion and it leads to depression. Just do what you feel you want to do at whatever pace fits the current situation at the time. Reddo's got the right idea - but NEVER give up, and NEVER get in deeper than you should. Simple really.

Around February there will be new sap rising, that's the time!

[and the chap said]

InFinRetirement,

Just curious to know what you meant by 'February - new sap rising'

Cheers,
atcs

[InFinRetirement]

February is traditionally make your mind up time for airlines. The plans they are working on now are often settled then.

Wait to see what happens. But who knows?

[Fly_146]

WWW, a few weeks ago you advised to wait six months. Now you advise wait four years! What has changed so much in this short space of time?

Also, if you START training in four years time when things are really starting to pick up, two years later when qualified wouldn't you stand a greater chance of being caught in the downfalls we see today?

[blackknight]

well chaps, i am very fortunate to be in the position where my parents can *ahem* loan me the money to do a integrated ATPL course, and I have chosen Jerez as my school, for several reasons, but with regard to putting everything on hold until the job market picks up, i look at it this way: "If i havent got the licenses etc, i cant even apply for the jobs, whereas if i have at least i have a miniscule chance of getting one"

stop moaning and get on with it!!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Yeah but nobody will be hiring low time pilots in significant numbers for at least 2 years. Keeping those ratings current is going to cost you about £4,000 a year and is a soul destroying business.

It all depends on your personal circumstances.

But how impressive is a CV that reads 200hrs TT, hasn't flown for 6 months, Multi IR lapsed. Compared to graduating next week, just come off an MCC sim course, all ratings freshly minted from the CAA?

Same person, same school, one delayed training one didn't.

WWW

[N One]

The situation sounds dire across in the UK!

Fortunately "downunder" things don't quite seem so bad despite the ANSETT collapse.

The GA scene is still plodding along.
Yes we do have a flood of qualified on type rated pilots from Ansett and a few regionals. Plus QF has shed 2000 jobs retiring the classic fleet. But most GA jobs are still intact and we hardly ever use IR's here as it's mostly CAVOK!

However, if things continue to fall further into the sh!t pond alot of people will be out of work. What has overted major redundencies within QF is their increased domestic market share with the demise of rival Ansett. Had Ansett still been up and running Qf would have been forced to make cutbacks, which would have meant redundencies. Now we hit the hurdle where there's no movement within the airlines and recruitement freezes. The blokes in GA can't move up and the newly qualified CPL's can't get GA jobs as no one in GA has left for airlines!

So we have a knock on effect down here as opposed to a direct effect in the UK, as you guys apply straight to airlines having done your integrated courses.

Still things will pick up, eventually, and when they do the guys who have 3000+hrs and rated on type will obviously get hired before the new guys.

Despite all this, Qantas are still running their Cadet course for 2002.

Who knows what the future will bring?

[scroggs]

No-one knows what lies in the immediate future for commercial aviation, but it would be a strange forecast that suggested that things would not improve! We are still very much in the aftershock of 9/11, and not helped by the AA crash last week. As a result, no airline will make any really bullish forecasts just now, but it seems reasonable to assume that we will regain most of the traffic we've lost since September in the next 6 to 12 months, and that we will resume the long-term upward trend in total aviation traffic within 18 months to 2 years.
To service almost any airline's flying schedule in 12 months time will need more pilots than are currently employed after the recent culls. To resume growth will need more pilots than were employed prior to 9/11. That, to me, suggests that the recent job losses will be negated within 12 to 18 months, and new jobs will be created thereafter. That's just my guess, and I'm not advising anyone to fork out £50k on the strength of it, but I think things are not as dire as some would suggest - unless you've just lost your job!
Watch the aviation press carefully, along with the general business pages of your newspapers, and be prepared to jump back on the bandwagon at very short notice!

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The lag will be considerable between new jobs becoming available and the supply of pilots becoming in any way tight.

If you look at the figures you will find about 500 people are currently in the system of training. During the next 12 months I'd say about half that number will enter training.

Assuming none finds satisfactory flying work there will effectively be a pool of about 750 low time guys chasing the jobs.

It will take at least 18 months to drain that pool and get to the situation we had up until this summer whereby the supply minus the no hopers more or less matched the demand. Which happy state ment that anybody who trained and had half a brain and bit of determination and some smartly polished choes got a job.

Its the devils own job to make predictions as there are just so many variables. Reading the financial saection of the Sunday Times this morning was heartening as a return to general economic growth within six months is being considered likley.

Hopefully Low Cost operations will explode across Europe and this will generate a lot of grwoth in air travel in the same way it did when the US deregulated.

So top tip would be to buy shares in sandwhich making companies :D

Cheers,

WWW