War with Russia next?

[Onceapilot]

What the hell is Anders Fogh Rasmussen doing joining in with the war of words over Ukraine? I have never felt very happy with his political propaganda, as Secretary General of NATO he is NOT in political control!:=

OAP

[Onceapilot]

No more comments from NATO?:oh:

OAP

[Bill4a]

Just two words Stay Out!

[NutLoose]

Probably something to do with the agreements we all signed up to.

I don't think the UK Plc would want to get involved, after all, we are already struggling with the Polish, Rumanian, Slovakian, Lithuania, Croatian, Czech, immigrants, where would we put several million Russian prisoners of war? :O

As said I think keeping out of it would be prudent, World War 2 more or less resulted from countries annexing others.

[Whenurhappy]

NATO, first and foremost, is a political organisation, with a Military wing. It's easy for us military types to get it the other way around.

[rh200]

Putin doesn't want a war, he's only doing what he is because he knows we in the west like the good life, and won't want to risk a real fight, another words where spineless.

He will get what he wants there, then in several years another, all the time we will just tuck our tail between our legs.

He like every other bully is a coward, when some one who can fight back stands up to him,he will back down. Its all well and good prancing around with your fancy hardware and high standards, but sooner or later you need to be prepared to get your hands dirty and the potential of a great loss.

if you don't you will have it forced on you one way or another.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

The West is all mouth and no trousers.

There's nothing the West can do, or will do, and Putin knows it.

He'll take Crimea in the next couple of months, preferably via a puppet Government (which is what he tried with Yanakovich and the whole of Ukraine anyway)

Troops will be used, but no significant fighting will occur.

[AnglianAV8R]

"NATO, first and foremost, is a political organisation, with a Military wing. It's easy for us military types to get it the other way around."


I recall a time when it was a defensive alliance.

[thunderbird7]

It is interesting to hear the politicians weasling their words over this issue as we enter our year of commemorations for the start of WWI. After all, one of the reasons we entered was to guarantee Belgian neutrality, or WW2, Polish neutrality. The EU, perhaps in its eagerness to dismantle the Soviet Union, guaranteed Ukrainian 'independence' in 1994. Now, call me a cynic, or is it just because the chickens are coming home to roost, they are trying to say "oh, well, umm, of course, that wasn't legally binding or a real promise..."

Now, I have absolutely no interest in diving into another stupid 'intervention' or war with another country but isn't this yet another example of politicians promising the earth without fully appreciating the implications of what they are saying? And of politicians refusing to stand up and be counted when the time comes...

[gr4techie]

Don't worry, we couldn't afford to have one.

I reckon in the future, wars will be decided by who runs out of money first.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Usually have been !

[Bergerie1]

Why not just partition the country and get on with it. It is not worth going to war over it.

[NutLoose]

Well if that's the plan, just as well Top Gear already did the economical vehicle programme.

[Ronald Reagan]

Putin: Kremlin heeding Crimea leader's call for help - latimes.com (http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-ukraine-russia-crimea-20140301,0,1978836.story#ixzz2uia05suu)

[Onceapilot]

So, does anyone think Anders Fogh Rasmussen could declare war on Russia on behalf of all NATO and we would have to be in breach of our obligations not to comply?:oh:

OAP

[Out Of Trim]

No, Ukraine is not a member of NATO!

Therefore, nothing to do with us. Of course, the Politicians are probably bricking it now. What happened to the Peace Dividend? Now we've cut our forces and have no money to re-arm and a massive welfare state to look after; not to mention Foreign Aid etc etc.

It seems the Russians can now afford to mount a Cold War II..

[Sand4Gold]

Although the The Budapest Memorandum is binding (by law), there is no mechanism to enforce it? This is the dilemma the West is facing - you have to sense this situation has the potential to trigger that 3am phone call?

[Whenurhappy]

No, NATO Sec Gen cannot declare war, per se. It has to be by consensus of the North Atlantic Council - ie PERMREPS from the 28 nations. That's not the same as unanimous, by the way. Member states can agree not to 'break silence' and then not participate in the action - as Germany did with the Libya conflict.

If my state is in Central or Eastern Europe, I would be very, very worried about Russian intentions. At what point is Putin stopped? I know that the Baltic States have urged Art IV measures (urgent consultations) of the NAC but in reality a lead nation would have to take over the military planning and execution given the rapidity of events, as NATO has publically declared for some time that it does not have conventional war plans relating to Russia and it would take time to develop plans, produce and populate a CJSOR and then deploy. The NRF, unfortunately, is not really configured for what would be a conventional force-on-force conflict.

[Heathrow Harry]

I'm sure Mr Putin would point out that it's not Russia expanding but the west getting closer to his front door

I'm not surprised he's worried - especially when a good piece of his navy is down there.......

[Wander00]

Russia has always wanted a buffer and, as you say, "we" are getting closer.................And it is not always just "territory", but "spheres of influence"

[Onceapilot]

Putin moves!

OAP

[Just This Once...]

In a move against the whole of the Ukraine, rather than just its interests in the Crimea.

:\

That democracy didn't last long. Ah well, the Iron Curtain was drawn when I joined, so no real change.

[Basil]

Bergerie1,
Why not just partition the country and get on with it.

Agreed. I can't help feeling that would be a simple and acceptable solution.

[air pig]

Putin at the moment holds all the cards, the Duma has ratified his actions, his troops are in situ, control of Sevastopol naval base and the airspace over the country and his 'nuclear' option of turning western Europe's gas off. It may not be winter but you still need gas everyday and what could the west do to stop him, absolutely nothing.

NATO does not have enough ground troops and supporting arms of tanks artillery helicopters and material. Not enough SEAD/DEAD, tankers transports C4 and C4int close air support and air superiority aircraft. A very long logistics chain and lack of stocks. Involvement in that s**thole Afghanistan, Mali and the CAR continue to require forces time and money.

He has a superiority of men and space to manoeuvre, remember the last two to take on Russia and what happened to them. Maybe the old lessons are about to be re-learnt that numbers have a quality all of there own. What's the use of 100 Brimstones hitting their targets when your opposition has another 100 and more and you have exhausted your stocks.

Are the politicians willing to risk poking the Russian bear sat in his big dark cave, or have in the words of Yamamoto merely 'woken a sleeping giant and filled him with a terrible resolve'.

If this does go horribly wrong, politicians who started this in the frontline or field hospitals please to see the consequences of their actions or decisions and the effects on other peoples sons and daughters.

Peace dividend, my a**e, just an excuse for politicians to grandstand and misuse my hard earned taxes.

[Robert Cooper]

An international treaty signed on February, 5, 1994, in Budapest between Ukraine, USA, Russia, and the United Kingdom concerning nuclear disarmament of Ukraine and security assurances of her independence.
According to the treaty Ukraine has abandoned her nuclear arsenal to Russia, while Russia, USA, and the UK have promised (1) to respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within her borders; (2) to protect Ukraine from outer aggression and not to conduct aggression toward Ukraine; (3) not to put economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence her politics; (4) not to use nuclear arms against Ukraine."
Unlike in the case of Georgia, in Ukraine the signatories are obliged by the agreement to protect it, ironic that it might be to have to be done against one of the signatories.
The question now is: will the other signatories, USA and UK, live up to their promise? Probably not!

Bob C

[air pig]

Bob C:

Only as long as Obama and Cameron or maybe Major and George H Bush as they signed them, lead the first charge. I suspect many of these treaties have this sort of clause, just the signatories never expected them to be called in.

[Robert Cooper]

air pig:

Agreed. Most of these things are not worth the paper they are written on. Sad reflection on international politics.

Bob C

[NWSRG]

and his 'nuclear' option of turning western Europe's gas off.

And this is where our own self-interest comes into things. A lack of self-sufficiency in energy is something of an incredible lack of foresight from our political masters. Maybe they thought that by doing business with Russia, we could buy some influence over their actions. Now, we're in a hard place. In theory, so are they, as they will not want to lose that cash. But I think Putin is a much better gambler than his western counterparts, particularly Obama; the latters "there will be costs" line sounds incredibly lame. And he is not even reliant on the gas...we are.

[MG23]

A lack of self-sufficiency in energy is something of an incredible lack of foresight from our political masters.

But coal produces icky CO2.

Or something.

Expecting foresight from politicians who don't know if they'll still be around in five years is brave, to say the least. They do whatever is most likely to win the next election, regardless of whether it makes the country worse off in the long term.

Problem is, they've been doing it at least since the end of WWII, so today is the long term.

[West Coast]

It's a two way road, he is reliant on the money it brings in. It's not like he can say up yours and ship it elsewhere overnight.

[air pig]

Money could be a secondary matter, his country has vast natural resources and land space that the west needs in respect to his resources. The average Russian is still very much pro mother Russia and is used to very harsh conditions to both preserve and protect it.

Putin was 'elected' by people who wanted a strong man heading the country after the disasters of Yeltsin and Chernyenko to name but two, even Gorbachov came up against the hard-liners and nearly paid for it with his life.

[West Coast]

I agree to a point. Someone, somewhere will fill the void of shipping gas to Europe, nature abhors a vacuum. The progress Russia has made will all be undone without the cash coming in. The Russian society you mention may not be the same stoic society of past. They've had a taste of a better life, I would be curious the reaction to a decision Putin makes that threatens the long term.

[blaireau]

The Black Sea Fleet needs to get through the Bosphorus does it not.

[Hangarshuffle]

There wont be a bloody war with Russia, get a grip! Literally hundreds of reasons why not. the entire invasion has been like watching a slow car crash. Russia telegraphed its moves to the west days ago. Its got tacit approval from the west anyway.
How either the USA or UK can criticise Russian and keep at straight face amazes me and about 50 million other Britons.

[NutLoose]

Do you think the caption contest will get scored before we all glow in the dark?

[smujsmith]

Totally agree on that one Hangarshuffle,

There will be no war. All Putin needs to do to shut Camoron and Co down is turn the gas off. Within a week, questions will be asked. But I believe, as I think you suggest, that the downright hypocrisy of both UK and US governments on this are relevant. In 2003 Blair and Bush ignored the UN, lied to their electorates and invaded a sovereign country. That gave Putin all the justification he needs for what is happening now. I've just seen a report that the newly "appointed" deputy security minister in Kiev, is tweeting for help from some radical Muslim terrorist group based in the Caucuses. It's looking a lot like Syria, our politicians jump in on the wrong side, and we find ourselves funding terrorists. Best we lock our pollies up until it blows over I think!

Smudge

[West Coast]

It's nonsense to lnk Iraq to this. What happened and what will happen is a perceived imperative of the Russians in their sphere of influence. If Saddam was still in power as of a few days ago, the actions of the Russians wouldn't be any different.

[smujsmith]

West coast,

Exactly my point. Its nothing to do with Saddam, in or out of power. It's about the actions of our governments. The "fact" is that Blair and Bush ignored the UN, lied to their respective electorates, and invaded a sovereign country in 2003. Causing many civilian deaths in the process. Whatever happens in the Crimea, any criticism from our government (UK, Cameron voted with Blair in 2003) would be hypocritical. I'm not sure how Obama voted in the USA with the Bush "push for war", You may know. I just believe that UK and USA are probably not the best arbiters of respecting a nations territorial integrity.

Smudge

[awblain]

They're only going to be fighting over who doesn't get Chernobyl.

[West Coast]

Smudge

Hypocritical, and the point would be? If debating righteousness is a prerequisite then its going to be a quiet conversation.

Ask yourself, If the west preached from the high ground, as in Iraq never happened, would the actions, outcome and political aftermath of what's happening be any different?

[Thelma Viaduct]

Smudger is right.

We've been involved in the Iraq and Afghanistan bollocks, locations not exactly close to us, hundreds of thousands dead, billions spent, soldiers lied to and used. I wonder if Putin will give 2 fu@ks when Scotland annexes itself???

[Mahogany_Bomber]

Putin will do what he considers in the best interests of Russia and international opinion or previous western interventions (ie Iraq) are of no consequence. I did a tour as a Military Observer on the ceasefire line in Georgia following the Russian invasion in 2008, followed by a stint in a senior staff appointment in the UN mission's HQ dealing with the Russian occupation forces and civilian officials on a daily basis. The current situation doesn't surprise me in any way, forward action in order to defend her strategic interests is currently seen by the Russian government hierarchy as a legitimate tool. A deliberate policy of issuing "Ethnic Russians" (no such thing, being Russian is an issue of nationality not ethnicity) with Russian Federation passports enables the Kremlin to undertake "protective action" - as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

The reality is that Russia could almost certainly achieve a great deal though economic action but, as with many immature/incomplete democracies, military shows of strength go down well with political strongmen. My prediction (for what it is worth): The UNSC will remain hamstrung. There will be a continuation of the current limited Russian military intervention, followed by a larger deployment in order to "protect" Russian citizens resident in Crimea as well as to secure the hinterland supporting the Black Sea Fleet. Lots of condemnation from the West but little (if any) concrete action. The Russians have de facto annexed two provinces of Georgia; a country with a pro-western European world view and which has been a willing military ally in both Iraq and Afghanistan. If we are able to do sweet FA in their case, why do we think Ukraine and Crimea in particular will be any different?

[West Coast]

MB

Well said. I wonder if other former WP nations are worried?

Yeah, I know the answer.

[GreenKnight121]

UNSC, EU, NATO to hold urgent meetings over Ukraine (http://www.turkishpress.com/news/393234/)

Saturday, March 01, 2014


Meanwhile, Lithuania and Latvia called upon the North Atlantic Council, the decision-making body of NATO, to hold an extraordinary session on Ukraine, citing security concerns.


Specifically, they have invoked Article 4, which states
Article 4
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.


Since, as has been noted, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, then Latvia & Lithuania seem to be referring to themselves as "the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened".

[Heathrow Harry]

pre-emtive try to get the line in the sand buffed up a bit I think

[Ronald Reagan]

Ukrainian Navy flagship takes Russia’s side
http://rt.com/news/ukraine-navy-flaghsip-protest-389/

[Hangarshuffle]

Said it. I've got more sympathy with Russia than the Ukraine. Our own sides goading and belittling and taunting attitude of Russia over the last 20 years now looks very stupid.
Someone said shades of 1914 what with the level of competency displayed on our side.
I'll be emailing my MP and telling him he doesn't speak for me if he advocates any sort of retaliation or action against Russia. (Sort of worked last time over Syria debacle).
At least glad the British public aren't over-reacting.

[thunderbird7]

At least glad the British public aren't over-reacting.

Not sure the British public are even UNDER-reacting! ;)

Underwhelmed, war weary, cuts-weary and utterly mis-trusting of politicians would sum up the general feeling....

[pax britanica]

Doing a bit of inter thread linkage-that's to say this one and another a few steps down the page in the Military segment about the strength (!) of the RAF it would seem we would be incapable of making even the smallest dent on the Russians without launching the submarine based nukes,

I think the time has come for us to send a clear message to politicians that Britain's 'place on the world stage' is now in the wings at best and backstage at the most realistic. We cannot possible have a situation where we have poor hospitals, poor roads , poor education, poor public transport , and above all a lot of poor people is we magically have the money to get involved in another daft venture.

I don't pretend to any deep understanding of whats happening in Ukraine but I do know that along with the students and liberals the western Ukraine produced some very unsavoury characters in WW2 (think Werhmact and SS Einstazgruppen) and while we might dismiss Russian rhetoric about fascist elements as just rhetoric thereprobably is some truth to it.

Hopefully a Czech-Slovak type deal can be worked out which would probably be better for both parties in the current Ukraine

[SASless]

Russian politics is a tough business, Putin is the toughest of the bunch. He understands the limits of Western Power and its weaknesses. He will do just as he pleases and there is nothing the Western Powers can do that will stop him without bringing a terrible cost to their prestige....what there is left.

When you are known to be weak and vulnerable....and are....this is the kind of thing that happens.

US Military power has gone from one of being able to fight Two War's simultaneously.....to being unable to fight one by itself. That is a fact....and publicly admitted.

When the US Army announces it has exactly two Combat Ready Brigades....you think the Russians are not aware of that fact?

Military action from the USA is not a risk.

The UK Military is more a Home Guard these days and certainly not an Expeditionary Force anymore.

Economic Sanctions are not a risk....what happens if Russia cuts off the supply of Gas to Europe in retaliation for any Sanctions taken against them? The UK and European Economies cannot sustain any real harm for a number of reasons....and the US Economy surely cannot.

The only avenue left is the UN....and who sits on the Security Council with Veto Power?

As I see it....the only thing left is Public Hand Wringing... and lots of talk.

That is something the Welfare Man is very good at.

[thunderbird7]

The UK Military is more a Home Guard these days and certainly not an Expeditionary Force anymore.

"DON"T PANIC!"

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

SASless +1:ok:

[Haraka]

SASless .Summed it up well.
Let's see now what transpires......

[GOLF_BRAVO_ZULU]

Remind me, how much did the "peace dividend" really save us?

[jumpseater]

GBZ Remind me, how much did the "peace dividend" really save us?

It's saved us billions of pounds. It'll cost the world a lot more though ....

[minigundiplomat]

Lots of people seeing 'wood', very few seeing 'trees'.


Energy is the mainstay of the Russian economy - and without the revenues from the oil and gas, they will be queuing for potatoes again pretty quick.


Oil prices below $117 a barrel start to interfere with the Russian economy and below $60 a barrel Putin is effectively toast [no standing back for a caretaker president for a few years in this case].


As an aside, Russia has a good energy deal going with Syria - exchanging Syrian crude for refined Russian petrochemicals at a favourable rate..... still I am sure that's completely unconnected to the veto against action on Syria.


Not only is he humiliating a politically and militarily impotent West, but causing a spike in oil prices. The last thing he wants is a war - but a prolonged stand off and heightened tensions suit his purposes perfectly.


The best course of action would be to let him have Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea; the majority want to be Russian anyway. Take away his oxygen and let the oil price flatline is far more damaging to Russia than sanctions or hollow threats.

[Easy Street]

The best course of action would be to let him have Eastern Ukraine and the Crimea; the majority want to be Russian anywayBe very, very wary about believing anything that's been reported on this subject. Putin knows full well that the west's greatest weakness is public opinion, and the best way to target public opinion is through the media. That's a hell of a lot easier today than it ever used to be; even the mainstream news outlets like the BBC have lowered their editorial standards to avoid being scooped by social media, and will gladly broadcast most things that are sent their way. Crimea wants to be Russian? Youtube video of some people waving Russian flags? Get it on telly, quick, before ITV! Now, as far as most of the voting UK public is concerned, it's fact - if they're inquisitive, they'll look it up on Wikipedia, which has almost certainly been doctored by the Russians as well - and so there is absolutely no public appetite for a confrontation. Game, set and match to Putin. Once upon a time, our media would have resisted outside attempts to use it as a propaganda tool. Now, it's just too busy with its 24hr rolling news cycle to care.

A week later, some international relations expert will publish a detailed article on the ethnic background of Crimea. By then no-one will care.

[minigundiplomat]

You could also be very, very wary about getting involved in areas we have no particular ties to, have little understanding of, and have no resources or appetite for......................

[Whenurhappy]

As I have said before, where does Putin stop, based on his justification for intervention in Ukraine? What about the (large) minority Russian-speaking populations in the three Baltic States, who, coincidentally, have been granted Russian passports by a generous Federation Government? What about the rest of Georgia? Eastern Poland, perchance?

I've got open in front of me the 1895 Times Atlas of the World. My, how big 'European Russia' was. Include Finland in that, along with Galicia, big chunks of Romania and Georgia. And Belorussia, which remains a client state.

Shall we add property holdings in London to that list?

I had a discussion over lunch with someone comparing it with, say, a theoretical intervention in the Irish Republic if British nationals were being targeted. We (the UK) would get pretty upset if Russia stormed in there to sort it out, feeling (as with Grenada in 1983) that this was a 'British' problem. The difference with this solipsism is that Ukraine (and Eire) are sovereign states, and Russia has now trampled over Wesphalian principals and the 1994 Memorandum (which has treaty status in international law). Moreover, for those who compare Western intervention in the Balkans and elsewhere is that this is not customary practise - that is, most states, irrespective of what is happening to their neighbours, do not intervene. This is nothing more than well-scripted expansionism.

But RF is vulnerable - as posted above it has a weak economy buoyed up on one commodity. It has a shrinking population that is actually drinking itself to death and the nomenklatura fear Chinese expansion in economic, influence and military spheres. So what if Putin hikes the price of gas and oil up or restricts supplies? We are entering Spring and there has been a lot of work over the last 10 years to increase supply resilience in Western Europe and if OPEC could be persuaded to flood the market (think Saudi Arabia), the Russian economy - which benefits from no inward investment (who would invest in Russia? None of the Oligarchs do...) - would collapse pretty quickly. Interestingly, this is the opinion of a former HMA to Moscow, whom I've just seen interviewed on BBC.

And all this nonsense of elite troops. Remember the elite Republican Guard? Utter bilge.*

*Edited to add that double-digit SAM systems are a wee bit problematic, though.

[SASless]

let the oil price flatline is far more damaging to Russia than sanctions or hollow threats.

How do you propose to do that?

Our Welfare Man has done everything he can to inflate US Fuel Prices, refusing the Keystone Pipeline, cutting or denying Drilling Permits on all Federal Lands, invoking Global Warming as an excuse and turning the EPA loose to target Oil, Gas, and Coal....ignoring the lack of any new Refinery construction and refusing to embrace any move towards Energy Independence for the USA.

How does Europe refuse to buy Russian Oil and Gas?

Demand drives Prices....along with the Value of the Dollar for us in the USA.

Europe does not have the benefit of buying Oil with US Dollars....so y'all really are between the Rock and a Hard Place in that regard.




http://www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs/small/oilprice1947.gif



Notice the very small bumps due world tensions until the Iran/Iraq War...which affected Saudi and other Gulf States supply of oil to the World....then the next huge bump was when OPEC cut the supply......and what happens if Russia cuts back on its supply to Europe....at some point increased price offsets reduced output so it is a no cost move to the Russians.

The largest bumps are generated by Lack of Capacity/Production and sustained demand.....not War or threat of War alone.

Don't you think Putin and his Advisors have a Graph that shows that relationship somewhere to use in their deciding their course of action?

[Easy Street]

You could also be very, very wary about getting involved in areas we have no particular ties to, have little understanding of, and have no resources or appetite for.....................

I wasn't suggesting that, necessarily. I was observing that it might not be wise to declare that partition of Ukraine is the best solution if your only evidence in support of that are some quotes by pro-Russian politicians in Crimea and some flag-waving on the telly, and that you might apply some caution before believing what you see in the media.

[SASless]

Taken from a news account about the Sunday News Shows today.....highlighting is my doing.

So here we have it.....the Welfare Man and Lurch, standing up for Freedom, Democracy, National Sovereignty, Peace, and Treaty Obligations. Pretty much as I have forecast.

Secretary of State John Kerry calls Russia's military incursion into Ukraine `an incredible act of aggression" and says President Vladimir Putin has made "a stunning, willful" choice to invade another country.

Kerry says Russia should respect the democratic process through which the Ukrainian people ousted their pro-Russian president and assembled a new government.

Kerry is raising the possibility of boycotting the June meeting of the Group of Eight leading industrialized countries in Sochi, Russia.

He's also discussing visa bans, asset freezes, and trade and investment penalties.

Kerry said he spoke with foreign ministers for G-8 and other nations on Saturday, and says everyone is prepared `to go to the hilt" to isolate Russia.

[Whenurhappy]

SASLess - what would you propose that the US does, then? Bomb Crimea, Moscow...?

[maxred]

Kerry says Russia should respect the democratic process through which the Ukrainian people ousted their pro-Russian president and assembled a new government.

I love this utter nonsense, when mob rule, as long as its in another country, someone else's country, becomes the West's Democratic process.

Spineless morons the lot of them, Camerloon, Odumbo et al. When will Bliar make yet another unwelcome appearance, oh forgot, he is leading the Middle East peace process, isn't he. And isn't that going terribly well:ugh:

[Daysleeper]

SASless
you've been consistently vitriolic about the current US government in this and every other thread but, but I'm curious what you think they could actually have done or be doing different here?

Nothing short of a massive US led war will dislodge the Russians from Crimea and frankly that's an absurd thought.

[tartare]

Interesting piece here on how there might be Western retaliation (http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441#sthash.8fFk6HZ3.gbpl) against Russia.
Weapons aren't the only option
A little apocalyptic perhaps.
However - economic retaliation means they'd turn off the gas.

[Two's in]

Maybe here in the US we could get some Pakistanis from the border region to make a case to Putin for how well we respect sovereign territory - those that haven't been taken out by a UAV fired Hellfire of course.

I believe the phrase is "what goes around, comes around..."

Putin deliberately uses the word "terrorist" knowing it has become our umbrella to take any action we choose, where and when we choose under it's umbrella.

[awblain]

Putin can't turn off the gas - it's the only thing that's keeping him in clean bandanas and out of the discount market for Ukrainian hookers.

[Willard Whyte]

Roll on fracking.

[tartare]

Indeed Willard!

[SASless]

Well....you knew it could happen.....Putin is just another target!


Obama Authorizes Drone Strike On Putin (http://www.duffelblog.com/2014/03/putin-drone-strike/#!x4ei8)




Now face it folks....there's really nothing we can and will do that is going to deter Putin from his goals.

So long as he doesn't over play his Hand....he is home free.

Putin is in charge...he pulls the strings....and there is nothing Europe or the USA is going to do that is a barrier to his ambitions.

[rh200]

Now face it folks....there's really nothing we can and will do that is going to deter Putin from his goals.

SAS, your wrong, their is something we could do, but it has the potential to cost us. Hence your correct in the last bit.

[NutLoose]

Bunch of spineless sycophants, they talk the talk but do not walk the walk.. There is not one western politician worth their salt. Georgia showed that.

[SASless]

Ergo....the "And" in my sentence.....lots we can and should do....but nothing of import we shall do.

[TheWestCoast]

Rush Limbaugh could be POTUS, Sarah Palin could be in charge of the State Department, Ted Nugent could be SecDef and the US military could be three times bigger and Putin would STILL have annexed Crimea and there would be still nothing the US could or would want to do about it.

Russia holds all the cards here. We're looking at the 1930s with nuclear deterrence thrown into the mix.

This is all about Putin's power and his continued grip on his country. He has no concerns about what we in the west think. Western leaders can boycott the G8 and the Paralympics all they want. The guy's a sociopath in charge of a nuclear arsenal, strategic forces and a whole bunch of natural gas and it won't matter to him what they do or do not do.

Whatever your political leanings, at this stage the best we can hope for is that he stops short of invading the rest of the Ukraine, that the Ukrainians themselves see sense and give up Crimea without attempting a fight, and that he doesn't go truly off the reservation and start looking at somewhere like the Baltic states next.

I know this reeks of appeasement and I know we're supposed to learn from history, but noone in their right mind is going to send the 6th Fleet to the Black Sea. I hope.

[Wetstart Dryrun]

...if only we had 600 soldiers, we could charge the guns.

...worked last time - a glorious victory, i think.

[SASless]

You would have to strip the Household of its Horses first.....

[Heathrow Harry]

".worked last time - a glorious victory, i think"

hardly - the Russians were in the same place after with the same guns as before the idiot charge. Some victory.....

Cavalry!!!

[melmothtw]

".worked last time - a glorious victory, i think"

hardly - the
Russians were in the same place after with the same guns as before the idiot
charge. Some victory.....


I think Wetstart got that Harry.

[SASless]

Same kind of Victory found fighting the Zulu, the Afghans, and Andy Jackson. Hopefully those days are past!

[Ronald Reagan]

Russia And China 'In Agreement' Over Ukraine (http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine)

[AR1]

Cant see anything happening but words, and in one sense thats fine by me. Call it appeasement, call it what you like really, but they did nowt while we bombed Libya/Iraq and we'll do nowt here and watch the country partition. Who knows, maybe the Crimean region wants that anyway.
We're all so much up each other backsides as regards trade and economy these days, that Mutually Assured Destruction has nothing to do with Nuclear Weapons!

[Al R]

Cameron styles himself as a Chief Executive. From the top down, our 'managers' are more suited these days to tweeting moral insights on DJs and comedians who take part in dodgy tax schemes.. not taking on foreign powers who can fight back. In itself, fine.. I have little faith in most of them. But a little humility at home following their international exposure as nothing more than corporate blowhards wouldn't now go amiss.

Might this take the Horn of Africa out of the cross hairs though?

Fracking - agreed too.

[kintyred]

Given the unstable situation in Ukraine, I can well understand Putin's desire to secure Russia's bases and interests in the Crimea. It seems unlikely that Ukraine can continue to exist in its current form given the strength of feeling on opposing sides. It might not be such a bad outcome for the country to spilt with a portion becoming a region of Russia and the remainder becoming a pro-western state. I can't imagine that the West would benefit in any way from intervening to prevent an area with a Russian majority being freed from Russian "protection". Not say that the West will not use the situation to its "advantage" to isolate Russia further.
Don't get me wrong, Putin is a nasty piece of work and I hope he gets him comeuppance but in this occasion he's not doing anything any other leader wouldn't do in the same situation...and I think he'll have more success than, say, a couple of western powers trying to secure Suez!!

[melmothtw]

Given the unstable situation in Ukraine, I can well understand Putin's desire
to secure Russia's bases and interests in the Crimea.


The instability in Ukraine is now directly linked to Putin's adventure in Crimea. I'm reminded of a documentary I watched recently on Afghanistan, where a squaddie who's job it was to patrol a stretch of road said: "We patrol this road to prevent the Taliban from blowing it up, but the only reason they blow it up is because we are patrolling it." Classic 'chicken and egg'.



...and I think he'll have more success than, say, a couple of western powers
trying to secure Suez!!


It was 3 western powers - UK, France, and Israel. And, in fact, militarily they succeeded in securing the Suez but were forced to back down under immense political and economic pressure from the US. A lesson for Crimea certainly, but probably not in the manner you were thinking kintyred.

[Ronald Reagan]

Well done to Russia and Putin. Putin is sticking up for the other side in this Ukrainian situation, against the illegal puppets in Kiev. Well done to him.

[The Helpful Stacker]

So Putin is to be applauded for fighting 'illegal puppets' by supporting his own illegal puppets?

Okaaayyy...

Anyhoo, in other news, France has been quick to act.

France Surrenders to Russia ? Hit the Woodline (http://hitthewoodline.com/satura/2014/3/3/france-surrenders-to-russia)

[kintyred]

Actually Melmothw, the Suez situation was exactly what I was thinking about....except that in this case I don't think that American pressure will have any any effect.
In reply to your comment about the Taliban, this situation is very different in that elements of the Ukranian Armed Forces would be a significant threat the Russian military who were already there if they were not reinforced by Putin....in other words, there was already a target to be attacked.

[dazdaz1]

Not looking good.........

BBC News - Russia demands surrender of Ukraine's Crimea forces (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26424738)

[Torque Tonight]

Blimey. Pretending this is peacekeeping or securing the naval base is wearing a bit thin now. This is a good old fashioned invasion and annexation of sovereign territory by military force.

So if we look the other way, we give Putin a clear signal that he can claw back the old soviet republics as he sees fit and use force with impunity. With a macho chest-beater at the helm who harks back to the old days of the soviet empire where will that end?

Alternatively the international community gets involved and we have a world war 3 kick-off scenario. This is turning ugly quickly.

[Ronald Reagan]

Switching Sides: Ukraine's Air Force brigade, Navy chief pledge allegiance to Crimea - YouTube (http://youtu.be/e5Y_wjT-530)

[ShotOne]

It's just not that simple, Torque. Many of those you are describing as invaders feel they belong there. They have lived and grown up there, and have no other home if they were to be ethnicly cleansed by a mob. Why should they just abandon their homes because it suits some folk who live thousands of miles away?

[MPN11]

The base for the Black Sea Fleet is fundamental for Putin's security of his southern flank, and potential control of Suez and the generality of Arabia and NATO's southern flank. I don't think we have a Mediterranean Fleet any more, but there is a US one.

Let's not forget the Russian phobia about being surrounded.

[Stendec5]

Good luck to Mr Putin. A real leader putting his country first.
The very sight and sound of western "leaders" any of them, makes me want to vomit.
Mr Putin will be pissing himself laughing at "threats" from an utter non-entity like "call me Dave". It's like Quintin Crisp threatening John Wayne.
(any country that can produce a beast like the mighty Mig-25 Foxbat, can't be all bad)

[NutLoose]

Oh dear...


UK seeking to ensure Russia sanctions do not harm City of London | World news | theguardian.com (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/uk-seeks-russia-harm-city-london-document#)

What a farce we have become

[Whenurhappy]

Ah yes, the Black Sea Fleet threatening the Mediterranean.



One, tiny little problem - the Bophorus and Turkish control therein.

[The_1]

Of course, the West will need to be seen to be standing up to the Russkies, and standing up hard to them. Why? Cos otherwise what signal does it send to others who may wish to do a bit of military tourism? And what about those countries with whom we have Defence Treaties and Security Treaties with (think South East Asia) - what value will their bits of paper be if we don't support Ukraine, and show that we are willing to enforce respect for their territorial integrity.

This is a defining moment for the West - shame it had to be against a competent and unpredictable foe!

Personally I think that the West will come down hard with every instrument short of a military response.

[Lonewolf_50]

Everybody here is assumming Ukranian armed forces are loyal ... they probably are of course, question is to whom.

My guess is that it isn't to the latest Billionaires in office claiming they interested in democracy.
Not sure who said this, but it's a good point and doubtless one that Mr Putin and his planners have looked into in terms of sizing up a potential opposing military force.

[awblain]

Well done to Russia and Putin. Putin is sticking up for the other side in this Ukrainian situation, against the illegal puppets in Kiev. Well done to him.

The spirit of Reagan indeed seems to live on.

[Ronald Reagan]

Lawmaker: Yanukovych asks Russian parliament to help Crimea (http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/lawmaker-yanukovych-asks-russian-parliament-to-help-crimea-338134.html)
The Russian military is there with the approval of the legitimate Ukrainian President.

[rh200]

The usual is happening here, misinformation by both sides.

Russia And China 'In Agreement' Over Ukraine (http://news.sky.com/story/1219922/russia-and-china-in-agreement-over-ukraine)

If you read the analysts tale on that it was diplomatic speak for couldn't agree on anything.

Switching Sides: Ukraine's Air Force brigade, Navy chief pledge allegiance to Crimea - YouTube (http://youtu.be/e5Y_wjT-530)

Then there's the usual people jumping sides for various reasons, loyalty to, country, ethnicity, money etc.

The Russian military is there with the approval of the legitimate Ukrainian President.

Then there the usual elected president bit which keeps getting thrown up, regardless of the fact that his parliament voted him out. A fact that may or may not be legal.

A few things, the guy was recording his own resignation speech, before he fled. The guy tried to board a plane to flee the country, his own customs wouldn't allow it. He didn't seek sanctuary in the Russian areas or hide under the Russian Admirals desk at the Black fleets head quarters. If he was so sure of his support and legitimacy why didn't he stay in the Ukraine.

[Ronald Reagan]

rh200, the President stated there was a threat to the safety of himself and his family. The safest place to go was Russia.
He stated that personnel still loyal aided him in leaving the Ukraine.
If he is the legitimate President then this makes the Russian move totally ok.


Quite honestly the so called ''new government'' in Kiev look like a joke.
Its hard to know how free the MPs have been when taking votes etc. Voting the wrong way may get one in trouble with the protestors outside!!!

[rh200]

If he is the legitimate President then this makes the Russian move totally ok.

Thats a big if

Could easily have sought sanctuary At the Russian areas.

Quite honestly the so called ''new government'' in Kiev look like a joke.

Frankly from a limited viewpoint I have a lot of respect for them, they seem to be going out of their way to be inclusive and not give the Russians an excuse. It was a big mistake by the Georgian president. Not that its going to help the Ukranians much as we will still stand around p!ssing our pants.

Now I'm sure if the agressor was some two bit tin pot force that had no hope of inflicting any serious harm the US would be right in there.

[Heathrow Harry]

unfortunately last week they started action to remove Russian as an official language......... not wise IMHO

[NutLoose]

unfortunately last week they started action to remove Russian as an official language......... not wise IMHO


Good on them, can we do the same to the Welsh?

[melmothtw]

As a Welshman, I find that offensive Nutloose.

[Ronald Reagan]

Yanukovich asks Russia to prevent unstable Ukraine 'from further deteriorating' - YouTube (http://youtu.be/l03kD5h8EOk)

[SASless]

If we did the same with Spanish.....we would never be able to communicate with our Day Labor, House Maids, and Gardeners or the majority of Californians.

[henra]

Alternatively the international community gets involved and we have a world war 3 kick-off scenario. This is turning ugly quickly.


Over a Country that is severely torn internally between adhering to Russia or Europe?
Seriously?
Yes this bears som clear signs of an Invasion.

And some economic measures would be in order (although they are even less likely than some Miltary Show Off since they effectively hurt ourselves as well) and are far more effective than any Show-Off of Military Force without any intent of using it, just to appease some in the public.
That is pure feel good politics without any effect. Or WW3. Anything in between would be pure luck.

Freezing of international Assets/Equity, locking out from international banking system, boycot of Oil and Gas deliveries and similar measures would be the most painful reaction for Putin where he can't even score Macho Points by countering with Military Show Off himself.

Going to WW3 is a plain stupid idea if we are not even prepared to take very effective measures that would only cost us some Money.
If we are not even prepared to take that rather safe (just expensive) step then we should simply keep out altogether.

[NutLoose]

Quote:
unfortunately last week they started action to remove Russian as an official language......... not wise IMHO
Good on them, can we do the same to the Welsh?


melmothtw
As a Welshman, I find that offensive Nutloose.


And so you should, one was just trying to show the condemnation this action would also cause in terms that could be seen here at home............. Boyo

[SASless]

Putin and Russia are talking bollocks about dumping the US Dollar!


So Russia is going to abandon the dollar as a reserve currency? Good luck with that one ? Telegraph Blogs (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100026745/so-russia-is-going-to-abandon-the-dollar-as-a-reserve-currency-good-luck-with-that-one/)

[tartare]

Surely there are multiple non- military options open to the West.
A bit of reading online seems to indicate that the much vaunted turn off the gas threat is a little overstated... from what I can see, there is at least 5 months supply stockpiled already.
Freeze Russian offshore assets, or confiscate them.
Including Putin's Dachas in London?!
Many avenues for sanctions.
Travel restrictions.
Kick `em out of the G8.
Many are ugly, and not without economic cost to us, but would exert pressure and are no doubt infinitely favourable to standing nose to nose, armed.
And more escalatory - if they are prepared to tear up international agreements on non-aggression, then there's the Montreaux Treaty... the non-observance of which would make it a little difficult for them to get into the Med.

[Trim Stab]

The problem with any sanctions against Russia is that they will hurt us in the EU as much as they will hurt Russia.

The Americans are the only ones arguing for sanctions because they do not export much to Russia, so their economy will not be affected much.

This whole dispute is not worth getting worked up about. There are far more important issues to sort out. Netanyahu must be very pleased at the moment, because it has diverted all the pressure on him to sign a peace accord with Palestine.

[Willard Whyte]

Netanyahu must be very pleased at the moment, because it has diverted all the pressure on him to sign a peace accord with Palestine.

I was wondering how this was all the fault of the Zionists. Now I know.

[Ronald Reagan]

Kiev snipers not hired by Yanukovich - leaked EU's Ashton phone tape
http://rt.com/news/ashton-maidan-snipers-estonia-946/


Most interesting

[melmothtw]

The readers comments below are more interesting.

[Ronald Reagan]

Listen to the tape!


Its also interesting to hear the Estonian Minister refer to some journalists with him seeing an MP being beaten up outside the parliament! Likely to ensure they are voting the 'right' way!

[Heathrow Harry]

Hey! sanctions???

Collapse of the housing market in London just before the election, public schools berifit of customers, and Russia is one of the few countries we have a positive trade surplus with........

[Mil-26Man]

On the subject of the tape, it was interesting to hear on Channel 4 news last night that the doctor at the centre of the claims that it was the demonstrators who hired the snipers stated that she never made any such comments.

So the Estonia minister and Ashton were discussiing an allegation that was never made in the first place.

[Archimedes]

The allegation was made, it's just that the supposed source for the information underpinning it has come out and said that the allegation is unfounded because the comments attributed to her are false.

Maskirovka, anyone...?

[Mil-26Man]

Maskirovka, anyone...?

Yep, there's no substitue for spreading disinformation when you're looking for a pretext to carry out a particular course of action...

Reichstag fire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reichstag_fire)

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Certainly seems to be following Putin's script so far. Bloodless occupation for another week, referendum held & Crimea joins Russia. Keep talking in the meantime, but don't say anything. The Eastern Oblasts can join in another year or two once the fuss dies down. Or maybe not; the Crimea is the real strategic gain.

[rh200]

referendum held & Crimea joins Russia

Interesting viewpoint on one of the bbc feeds.

They are entitled to hold local referendums under the Ukrainian constitution, but the same constitution also say that Ukrainian territory can only be altered by a complete Ukrainian referendum.


Also laughing at the denials that there are Russian troops running around, even though various reporters have had interactions with them confirming such.

[Mil-26Man]

I agree to a point Fox. I think Crimea is a means-to-an-end, rather than the end itself. To my mind, Putin is looking to reassert Russia's dominance of the region and to check NATO's/EU's expansionism into Eastern Europe - that's the goal, and the Crimea just gives him an opportinuty to achieve a part of that. Holding on to Crimea also teaches Ukraine (and anyone else) a lesson not to 'mess' with him/Russia.

[awblain]

At some point a constitution that doesn't reflect the desires of the people will have to change, especially such a recent one, built in haste and perhaps under some pressure.

If the majority of Crimeans want to be in Russia, then so be it. If it's good enough for Scotland and North Schleswig...

[rh200]

If the majority of Crimeans want to be in Russia, then so be it. If it's good enough for Scotland and North Schleswig...

So enlightned of you, I gather you would support the same for some other of the suppressed countries in Russia?

[NutLoose]

Ohh I know, let's march into Ibiza at the height of the season when it's full of Brits, set up armed guards all over the place, call an election under the duress of those armed guards without any say in the matter and declare the Ballearic Islands as UK territory, that'll work too and the World will see it as a fair and legal process...... not.

[awblain]

Yes I would, although I doubt Mr Putin does.

The principle of self-determination is a good one, and dates back prior to that very clear example in North Schleswig, based on an idea from 1866.

Now all that shouldn't ride roughshod over minorities or distort and render countries impractical, and it has to be carried out in an orderly way, but I think that Putin has a point: if the ethnic/cultural Russians in Ukraine want to be Russian that's OK. Harboring fugitive kleptocrats and shooting at people is quite another matter.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Mil-26Man - I agree. Crimea is a strategic gain, but not the last.

rh200 -The Ukranian Parliament's ousting of the President, whatever it's merits, was unconstitutional. They now don't have a leg to stand on re the Crimean Referendum.

[Mil-26Man]

But wasn't that Hitler's idea? Bringing all German-speakers together under one Reich?

[awblain]

Summer holidaymakers don't get to vote, and they don't outnumber the locals.
Should long-term resident retirees end up dominating Ibiza, then at some point they might have an argument for a realignment, although not as good an argument as the Basques or Catalans.

Crimea was in Russia until the 1950s and has a large Russian-speaking population. That those people might dislike the harder right aspect of the coalition in Ukraine that ejected their puppet is understandable. The idea of a snap referendum is nonsense, but in due time Crimea could choose to be part of Russia peacefully, and without violating any laws.

[NutLoose]

Surely if it came down to "protecting" Russian Citizens and I use that term loosely, then the ideal would be to evacuate those "Russians" that wished to move to Russia, and those that wished to remain in the Ukraine to remain in the Ukraine, then withdraw from the Country. Indeed they wouldn't even need to have troops in there in the first place, simply offer them the opportunity to move.

Crimea was in Russia until the 1950s and has a large Russian-speaking population. That those people might dislike the harder right aspect of the coalition in Ukraine that ejected their puppet is understandable. The idea of a snap referendum is nonsense, but in due time Crimea could choose to be part of Russia peacefully, and without violating any laws

You could argue that for most countries of the world, Canada and the Innuit, USA and the Indian nations, all nations at somepoint belonged to someone else, you cannot agree one thing then at a whim change it and march into anothers Country and seize part of it.

[awblain]

Mil, And with bells on - uniting them didn't take long, and un-united them on various cultural grounds didn't take long either.

It was the giving them Lebensraum at the expense of all these slavic folks, with the connivance of some of the slavic folks that caused most of the trouble.

[Mil-26Man]

I completely agree Nutloose. Putin's argument that he is 'protecting Russians' is no different from Milosovic saying he was protecting Serbs in what used to be Yugoslavia.

If you want to be ruled by Russia, move to Russia.

[awblain]

Nutloose,

The annexing is all a bit heavy handed, since there's been no threats from the new Ukrainian government.

However, those Russians have lived in Crimea for many generations. It's their home, and there's no reason why they should move. They can't have dual citizenship now they're Ukrainians, but since they have a clear Russian identity, and there's the possibility of instability in the future, it's not unreasonable for Moscow to take an interest, or to suggest that the region might be better reassigned to them, if that's what the people want.

There's also the fully legal, legacy Russian military bases in Ukraine to add further interest in the area to Moscow.

[rh200]

rh200 -The Ukranian Parliament's ousting of the President, whatever it's merits, was unconstitutional. They now don't have a leg to stand on re the Crimean Referendum.
Actually their was a point by point explanation of all these issues on the US embassy website in Moscow. It appears technically that is was legal.

So unless someone who's fluent in Ukrainian legalise can address those points, I'll stick to it was legal.

[Mil-26Man]

It's their home, and there's no reason why they should move.


No one has suggested they should awblain (you say so as much yourself - since there's been no threats from the new Ukrainian government).

Unfortunately, to the Russian-psyche everyone in the West is fascist and a Nazi and so it hasn't proven too difficult for Moscow to stoke up the local fears in Crimea to the point whereby Putin could send in the troops.

[awblain]

Mil, I agree. No one in Eastern Europe has suggested it, although I think that you and Nutloose did suggest that unhappy ethnic Russians in Crimea could just move, which was why I raised the issue of them being longstanding residents.

Milosovic could have had a good point about protecting Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia: ethnic cleansing was a multi-directional game. Where he didn't have a point was in killing Bosnians and Croat civilians in large numbers.

[Mil-26Man]

Speaking for myself, my comment about Crimean Russians moving was in relation to those who no longer want to live in Ukraine as Russians. The Ukrainian government has not threatened them in any way, and there is no reason why they should move (like you said, many have been there for generations with no problems).

No, I'm afraid I don't agree with you about Milosovic. He unleashed that particular genie out of the bottle, and if there were repurcussions later against Serbs then he only had himself to blame for that.

[awblain]

I agree.

Milosovic didn't go down that road, but if he had, they'd have been some mileage in it.

As the strongest local power, he could have acted to ensure peace and safety as Yugoslavia dissipated. In 1990, don't forget it was also less than two generations since the Ustase Croats were out and about, and there was a fair bit of payback pent up.

I'm happy to assign the bulk of the blame to Serbia, but there was assistance from Croatia. The Bosnians were a bit more hapless, and just stuck in the middle. The irregular forces for all the protagonists were perhaps the most brutal, and difficult for the political leaders to control after they were wound up and set off.

[Mil-26Man]

Agree with you to a point about Croatia. Franjo Tuđman was cut from the same cloth as Milosovic, and both agreed to carve up Bosnia between them (you're certainly correct when you say that the Bosnians werejust stuck in the middle). I agree also that for the ordniary Serb the fear of the Croat Ustase was very real in their minds.

My point with relation to Ukraine though is that, like Milosovic and the Croat/Bosnian Serbs, Putin is playing on the historical fears of the Crimean Russians to further his own poltical agenda.

The fear is just that; fear, and there is no actual threat to the Russians in Ukraine from the Ukrainians (at least, there wasn't before all this kicked off).

[Ronald Reagan]

rh200 you would expect Washington to come out and say any lies to support their new pet puppet regime in Kiev. Everything they say is a lie.
Good luck to the people of Crimea in walking away from Kiev.

[Mil-26Man]

Everything they say is a lie


Ronald, is Putin lying when he says the armed men in Crimea are not Russian troops, but local self-defence forces with no affiliations to Moscow?

[Ronald Reagan]

Everyone lies! But Putin is a million times better than the rubbish coming out of Washington, London, Paris, Brussels etc. Its great seeing a leader who will stand up against the axis of evil in the west!

[Mil-26Man]

So that's a 'yes' then. Have you considered that if he is lying about that might he not be lying about other things as well (such as threats to Russians living in Ukraine, opposition snipers etc)?

Well, I see you've already made your mind up so that was really a rhetorical question...

[awblain]

Sure, Putin's just tugging the strings in Crimea now because the strings on his puppet in Kiev were cut. If he's interested in governmental rectitude, he'll send him back to face the music.

[Snafu351]

Fox, i can't accept your characterisation of the Ukrainian Parliaments actions as unconstitutional if that implies they are wrong and unjustified.

The puppet of putain signed an agreement on the 21st Feb to implement change then promptly fled the country.

A cynic would suggest that such action was pre-planned and designed in conjunction with excessive provocation in invading Crimea to trigger a response from the Ukrainian side that would justify putain rolling over the border and occupying the entire or at least East of the country.

In the circumstances they were faced with should the Parliament have thrown their hands up and done nothing awaiting putains puppets return?

The clear evidence of corruption as illustrated by the footage of the bizarre residence formally occupied by putains puppet was more than enough for the democratically elected Parliament to take the action they have vis a via putains puppet.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

By no means was I implying they were wrong (I would be one of those cynics), and rh200 reckons it was constitutional anyway. I'll check his reference when I've time, but we'll assume he's right and I was wrong. Sorry.

[Lonewolf_50]

Regarding the disappearance of the president from Ukraine, some folks seem to have lost sight of the matter of himself, and some others, dipping their hands into the till. Some of the details appear to be murky and involve foreign accounts, but in this case I'm leaning towards the "where there is smoke there is fire."

That sort of theft from the public coffers gets people removed from office in a lot of countries ... as well it should.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

US sends 6 (yup, six)F-15s to Lithuania
Yahoo News Canada - Latest News & Headlines (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-fighter-jets-arrive-ukraine-region-us-warship-190503954.html)

I'll bet Putin is wetting himself right now ;)

[ValMORNA]

I had to laugh at an official, after the EU meeting, saying that a referendum for the citizens of Crimea to vote on whether to secede from Ukraine to Russia was 'illegal' as it should be for the whole of the Ukraine population to vote on the subject. That sounds similar to the situation vis-a-vis Scotland and the rest of the UK.

[Ronald Reagan]

Ron Paul: US has no right to lecture on Ukraine because of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya - YouTube (http://youtu.be/n58IwCNw--0)

[melmothtw]

US sends 6 (yup, six)F-15s to Lithuania
Yahoo News Canada - Latest News & Headlines (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/us-fighter-jets-arrive-ukraine-region-us-warship-190503954.html)

I'll bet Putin is wetting himself right now ;)


And 12 F-16s to Poland, but take your point that Putin won't be losing too much sleep right now.

[melmothtw]

Ron Paul: US has no right to lecture on Ukraine because of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya - YouTube (http://apicdn.viglink.com/api/click?format=go&key=1e857e7500cdd32403f752206c297a3d&loc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fmilitary-aircrew%2F533161-war-russia-next-8.html&out=http%3A%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2Fn58IwCNw--0&ref=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pprune.org%2Fnewreply.php%3Fdo%3Dnewrep ly%26amp%3Bp%3D8356336%26amp%3Bnoquote%3D1)

Hang on, Russia has supported NATO's mission in Afghanistan throughout the last decade or so, and the only reason it didn't want regime change in Libya (and Syria) is because it jeapordises the billions of roubles worth of arms deals it has in place.

[NutLoose]

19:24: The US military earlier announced it was sending the USS Truxtun, a navy guided-missile destroyer, to the Black Sea for what it described as a "routine" deployment that was scheduled before the crisis began.
19:17: The Pentagon says six US F-15 jets and 60 US military personnel have now arrived in Lithuania to bolster air patrols over the Baltics, Associated Press reports. This adds to the four F-15s and 150 troops that are already patrolling in the area.
From BBC

And don't forget those that can't help themselves


Pavlo, London and Kharkiv emails: During this political turmoil where the current government is manifesting itself as useless and spineless, some things are getting missed. They may seem to be negligible on global scale but are nonetheless important for local people. In my native town of Kharkiv, due to the financing being cut off by the government, the animals in the local zoo are on the verge of starvation. This has no relation to politics but just serves saving poor living creatures.

[Lonewolf_50]

Ron Paul is not completely wrong, in terms of understanding Putin's point of view and response.

"OK, you say I have no good reason to enter Crimea/Ukraine. It is right next to my country and used to be part of my country not so long ago. Iraq was never part of your country, and isn't right next door. Why are you giving me this grief?"

A reasonable response might be ...

"We intended to leave, and did. Do you intend to leave Crimea when this instability is over?"

[Ronald Reagan]

Lonewolf_50, you make some good points. It would appear that a large number of people, possibly the majority in Crimea don't want the Russian's to leave, actually they would rather their whole region becomes part of Russia again which it was before.

[melmothtw]

And the majority of Germans in the Sudetenland wanted the Nazis to stay, and the majority of Serbs in Bosnia and Croatia wanted their compatriots to stay also, but you can't just go carving up other peoples countries. Can you not see that?

[melmothtw]

And if Russia wants to restore international borders as they were before, let's start with Kalingrad and the Kuril Islands.

[Lonewolf_50]

but you can't just go carving up other peoples countries
mel, we (the various powers of the world) ran amok doing that after WW I, and after WW II. Yes you can: you can go and carve up various parts of the world.

The various efforts by the UN to redraw a variety of lines has been part of its history as an organization.

Cyprus springs to mind ...

[Ronald Reagan]

You cannot seriously compare modern day Russia to Nazi Germany! If anything those who seem to like the Nazi's are in Kiev!


Crimea was actually part of Russia until only a few decades back. It seems perfectly logical it returning to them, if that is what the majority of people in Crimea vote for then fine.

[Whenurhappy]

RR - that may be so, but that should be a decision made by all the people of Ukraine, and not by force majeur, whereby a gun has been held to the head of the Ukranian people.

[Ronald Reagan]

Whenurhappy, why on earth should the people of say western Ukraine have a say in the fate of the people of Crimea! The people of Crimea want NOTHING to do with the new Kiev regime, they are what have caused all of this.
Letting people from other areas of Ukraine vote would be totally unfair to the people of the Crimea. It really is just a matter for Crimea. It was Russian before anyhow!

[GreenKnight121]

Well, there is this little matter of the Ukrainian constitution requiring that any question of part of the country leaving the country be voted on by the entire country, not just the part wanting to leave.

Of course, we all know that Putin's will (and the glory of RR's Russia) trumps such silly inconsequential things as laws (and treaties).

[Lonewolf_50]

You cannot seriously compare modern day Russia to Nazi Germany!
Indeed. They are nowhere near as organized as the German Nazis were.
If anything those who seem to like the Nazi's are in Kiev!
Really? Sounds like a soundbyte out of the PR ministry in Moscow, RR. ;)

[rh200]

rh200 you would expect Washington to come out and say any lies to support their new pet puppet regime in Kiev. Everything they say is a lie.

And I would expect anyone who is blinded by true loyalty to lie. The point is to look at their points, and go is it true, what are the alternative arguments.

Its not about morally right or wrong, its about the technicalitys.

By the way I don't think it was legal, I'm just taking a side that it was legal based on some published facts. As I stated if someone has a unemotional counter argument to those published points on why they are wrong, I am happy to take it on board.

[SASless]

you can't just go carving up other peoples countries. Can you not see that?

Why dear Boy.....you Brits have a very long history of doing that very thing! :=

[Hempy]

SAsless, old chap, if one is going to delve into ancient history in attempt to score penis points, one should probably google their own backyards history first..

Just sayin

[SASless]

Hempy.....do get it straight.....I said you Brits had a "VERY LONG" history of doing it...we were victims of that back in the 1700's as you recall when you, the French, and the Spanish fussed over my country.

Y'all just cannot get over being under Eisenhower can you?

[Trim Stab]

Well, there is this little matter of the Ukrainian constitution requiring that any question of part of the country leaving the country be voted on by the entire country, not just the part wanting to leave.

Difficult to argue that the Ukrainian constitution is still valid given that the presidential powers have now been usurped by unconstitutional leaders in both Kiev and Sevastopol.

If Crimea wants to leave Ukraine and join Russia this surely is the best way forward for peace and stability in the region. The west of Ukraine would then be free to align themselves more closely with the EU, which is what they want too.

Arguing that the whole of the Ukraine should be allowed to vote on Crimean succession is a bit like arguing that the the whole of the UK should be allowed to vote on Scottish independence, or Argentinians arguing that they should have been allowed to vote in the Falklands referendum last year.

[melmothtw]

Victims...when you, the French, and the Spanish fussed over my country...

Which Native American tribe do you belong to SASLess?

[melmothtw]

You cannot seriously compare modern day Russia to Nazi Germany!


I was about to say that you cannot possibly compare the Kiev government to Nazis...but then you did. Unfortunately, Russians see everyone in the West as fascists and Nazis so the rhetoric coming out of Moscow isn't all that surprising.

Notice you didn't complain about comparing the Russians to the Serbs and Putin to Milosovic. Tells its own story...



The people of Crimea want NOTHING to do with the new Kiev regime,


Not tue. A section of the Crimean population that is currently enboldened by Putin's actions want's nothing to do with the Kiev regime, but there are Ukrainians, Tartars, and even Russians who do wish to remain in Ukraine. They're the ones you don't see on the news on account of the Russian soldiers, bullwhip-weilding Cossacks, and self-styled local defence foces that are roaming the streets.

[Trim Stab]

Not tue. A section of the Crimean population that is currently enboldened by Putin's actions want's nothing to do with the Kiev regime, but there are Ukrainians, Tartars, and even Russians who do wish to remain in Ukraine. They're the ones you don't see on the news on account of the Russian soldiers, bullwhip-weilding Cossacks, and self-styled local defence foces that are roaming the streets.

And that is exactly why the Crimean parliament wants to hold a referendum.

[melmothtw]

A 'free and fair' refurendum? Reports on BBC Radio 4 this morning that Moscow has turned off Ukrainian TV in Crimea and is broadcasting Russian TV only. Having had a chance to sample some of RT's most recent coverage, I'd guess they're not exactly providing both sides of the debate.

And say the vote does go against Putin, do you think they will announce it as such? Stand by for a 98% vote in favour, I'd say.

[glad rag]

This. It is quite SAD that some cannot differentiate between true democratic progress and the sanctioning of a rigged balled to oppress a sizable portion of a regions citizens......

Ah well, I guess thats what the ignore button is for then..:ok:

[Trim Stab]

This. It is quite SAD that some cannot differentiate between true democratic progress and the sanctioning of a rigged balled to oppress a sizable portion of a regions citizens......

Jumping the gun a bit eh? They have not even held the referendum yet...

[Mil-26Man]

I'm up for a wager as to what the outcome will be Trim Stab, if you are ;-)

[melmothtw]

The people of Crimea want NOTHING to do with the new Kiev regime


The view from the BBC - on the ground in Crimea and talking to the poeple...

Analysis


http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/56625000/jpg/_56625363_007363121-1.jpg Mark Lowen BBC News, Sevastopol

A lot of Russians I have spoken to here in Crimea over the last week say they do not actually want to become part of Russia.

They say they want broader autonomy and protection of their rights, but they want to stay within Ukraine and do not want to change nationality.

There are those of course who say they would like to unite with Russia. But there is a lot of support for developing the notion of greater autonomy within Ukraine.

Certainly, the ethnic Ukrainians and the Tatars will vote against it in the 16 March referendum.

I think the Crimean government may have a big fight on its hands persuading citizens to endorse joining Russia.

[awblain]

The Ukrainian constitution is a flexible feast. If subpopulations of its citizens genuinely want out, then their willis clear, and the rules set to avoid fission will just have to yield. Much more important is breaking the "promise not to threaten Ukraine, and they'll give up their nuclear weapons" memo.

Ukraine deserves credit for agreeing and implementing that, and now they're getting the $%^$& in return.

[GreenKnight121]

http://media.cagle.com/205/2014/03/04/145261_600.jpg

[Lonewolf_50]

Not getting the pink teddy bear ref: breast cancer thing? :confused:

[Lyneham Lad]

What is that old adage? Ah, yes thus spake Roosevelt - "There is a homely old adage which runs: Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far." One gets the impression that President Obama has only mastered the first bit...

[Trim Stab]

I'm up for a wager as to what the outcome will be Trim Stab, if you are ;-)

Yep, I'm up for that. The majority of inhabitants of the Crimean peninsula are ethnic Russians and want to be part of Russia. It's akin to our referendum to ask the Falklanders whether they want to be part of UK or part of Argentina.

Let Crimea rejoin Russia - that is where they belong!

[West Coast]

Russian bear, pink bear...

Obama's perception v reality is how I took the intent.

[Mil-26Man]

Some confusion Trim Stab. I also think it will be a yes vote as the result has already been decided by Putin and his cronies. Predict a 90% turnout and 99% in favour. It will be rigged of course.

[awblain]

Not drawn to scale. The pink one's got all the kit, and the huge budget.

[Trim Stab]

Some confusion Trim Stab. I also think it will be a yes vote as the result has already been decided by Putin and his cronies. Predict a 90% turnout and 99% in favour. It will be rigged of course.

Given that 60% of the population are ethnic Russians, I would say that it is probable that a majority will want to rejoin Russia (where they were until 1954).

And why do you assume that it will be rigged? The elected Crimean parliament proposed the referendum - nobody claimed before that the Crimean parliamentary elections were "rigged".

I say let the referendum take its course, with the usual international observers to ensure that it is fair - and then let the arguments start.

[Lonewolf_50]

Trim, you might want to consider the demographic breakdown. I'll estimate that those born after 1989-1994 are as likely to identify as "Ukrainian" as Russian, and thus split the pro "head back to Mother Russia" vote a bit.

Could be a near run thing, if it isn't a rigged election. I know a few guys in Duval and Jim Wells County who can advise on that (rigged) style of election. :ok:

[Trim Stab]

Lonewolf - agree that there are a lot of dynamics in play here. Glibly denouncing "Russian aggression" maybe plays to strategic power-politics - but it might not be the best way forward here.

Ukrainian politics have been dominated for at least the past decade or so by an East-West split - between the younger and more urbanised demography in Kiev and surrounding areas, and the orthodox-traditional and more heavy-industrialised areas to East.

The best way forward here is to put geo-politics aside and let the Ukrainian people choose. Until now, we are giving undue prominence to an unelected Kiev-based official who is claiming to represent the whole of Ukraine, and refusing to recognise the legitimacy of a proposal by a fairly elected regional parliament in Ukraine to have a referendum on Crimean independence.

[Lonewolf_50]

I wonder how many people in Ukraine, east west north south, hold that the removal from office of the pres was valid and constitutional? I seem to recall that new elections are expected to be held in May.

(Or was that bad press reporting?)

[Trim Stab]

The way forward now is to declare the Ukrainian constitution invalid and work out a new constitution. Ukraine was never a truly unified, homogenous nation anyway. Better to accept Russia's valid concerns to protect the interest of their own kind in the Crimea (plenty of US/UK/French/German precedent for that!), consider them a negotiating partner, and negotiate partition of Ukraine.

The argument that the partition of Ukraine is non-negotiable is artificial because it has never been a truly unified state.

[t43562]

A referendum with an occupying army ....

[MrSnuggles]

Very interesting discussion.

Just chiming in to tip you that here in Sweden we do perfectly fine nuclear power in excess amounts, so please EU, come buy it! It probably can't get your cars going, but at least you can keep your AC running if you decide to cut off the Russian gas/oil.

(Yes, I am pro-nuclear power. And don't worry, we only have simple light water reactors.)

[Lonewolf_50]

Respectfully disagree, good sir, on the following. It harkens back to the "No True Scotsman" argument, uh, fallacy, uh, thing.
The way forward now is to declare the Ukrainian constitution invalid and work out a new constitution.
Who is to make this declaration and why?
Ukraine was never a truly unified, homogenous nation anyway. Nor was the United States in its first twenty years. We bickered like two wildcats in a bag together, see for example the Whiskey Rebellion. Some of New England nearly went over to the Brits in the War of 1812! (We got better ... sort of)
Better to accept Russia's valid concerns to protect the interest of their own kind in the Crimea (plenty of US/UK/French/German precedent for that!), consider them a negotiating partner, and negotiate partition of Ukraine. I'd say you are being a bit hasty with that partition bit.
The argument that the partition of Ukraine is non-negotiable is artificial because it has never been a truly unified state. I see. they had better take a look at their porridge and check for sugar! :eek:

Person A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge."
Person B: "I am Scottish, and I put sugar on my porridge."
Person A: "Well, no true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge."

[Trim Stab]

The bellicose jousting positions which we see at the moment don't reflect the reality of what is probably going on around the non-public negotiating table at the moment. All four sides (Ukraine, Russia, EU, USA ... in that order) have too much to lose here. The final settlement will probably (and I hope!) be a peaceful partition of Ukraine. It is the only sensible long-term solution. Any other "international law" fudge will lead to a long-term source of discontent which will only boil over again for future generations to deal with.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

Trim Stab +1 :ok:

and your earlier post on the farcical idea that all Ukranians should vote on any region's independence. Might be worth reminding Obama that the phrase "tyranny of the majority"was first used by one of his predecessors (John Adams).

[NutLoose]

I see. they had better take a look at their porridge and check for sugar!

Person A: "No Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge."
Person B: "I am Scottish, and I put sugar on my porridge."
Person A: "Well, no true Scotsman puts sugar on his porridge."

You missed having it with salt on it.... A lot of Scots prefer it that way.

[rh200]

Just chiming in to tip you that here in Sweden we do perfectly fine nuclear power in excess amounts, so please EU, come buy it! It probably can't get your cars going, but at least you can keep your AC running if you decide to cut off the Russian gas/oil.

Smart@ss Swedes:p:p:p The home of electric blue:E.

Remember seeing a documentry one day about renewable energy and one of the countrys next door. It then cut to one of the operators of your nuclear power stations, who just sat back and laughed and said, "where do you think they get their power from when the wind doesn't blow";).

Bet after this there might be doing a few more sums on their power plant requirements.

[Fitter2]

F3WMB?


The 'farcical idea' that all Ukrainians should vote on any secession happens to be part of the Ukrainians constitution (approved by Moscow). While it may appear daft now, that's what the Russians insisted on - but I doubt that legal niceties appeal to Putin.

[ORAC]

Might be worth reminding Obama that the phrase "tyranny of the majority"was first used by one of his predecessors (John Adams). Actually it was James Winthrop, but it was made famous by de Tocqueville in "Democracy in America" - a Frennchman.

[Heathrow Harry]

Simple - rent Crimea to Russia for 99 years - we can dust off the HK documentation to get it all started

[Lonewolf_50]

Harry, well played. :D

[air pig]

Breaking on Sky, NATO to fly E3s over Poland and Romania, WTF is going on. Don't these fools realise that they are just stoking a fire they just cannot control. They said that about a flight over Sverdlovsk in 1961. What happens if Vlad starts to actively jam the E3s.

Vlad will love this, will he start doing the same thing, it just needs one spark and boom.

[Courtney Mil]

This is some kind of powder keg just waiting to eaxplode? I really don't see it. Willy waving a sabre rattling, more like it. Even the talk of sactions, asset freezes and travel restrictions will soon go very quiet when Ivan offers to turn off a few people's gas. Why on earth should that nice Mr P be in the least bit concerned that NATO are flying an E3 over Poland?

[air pig]

Because that nice Mr P may decide to see if you have a high Tog duvet and like cold beans for dinner.

Seriously, they are being stupid and indeed willy waving, the main question who has the biggest willy?

[Whenurhappy]

As I've pointed out before 70% of European gas supplies are outwith of Russia and we are entering warmer weather. Europe could cope, but Russia - with a weak single-commodity economy, will go down the gurgler very, very rapidly. Where are the Russian investments and reserves. In Moscow? Try London, Dubai, Northern Cyprus.

[NutLoose]

You get the feeling Putins aims are to get firmly entrenched and then say let's negotiated knowing damn well he is now secure with no interest of budging one inch. I also noticed that Crimea has gas lines that also flow through the Ukraine, so he has in effect taken those fields over too.

I do think Putin has misjudged at least in the mid term, Europe will have had the cold hard truth rammed home that you cannot rely on one countries gas supply, so the liquified gas option, gas from Norway and also Turkey and the Middle East will become major suppliers reducing dependance and cutting Russia's monopoly and hence severely hitting the country revenue stream.


..

[N2erk]

Lots of stuff to comment on, so little time. Amazed to see that not all posts (by any means) are of the "nookler war, toe to toe with the rooskies" as in Dr Strangelove. (Younger members- a really funny, scary? movie).
Constitutionality- even Radio Liberty (Voice of America) questions the legitimacy of the current Kyev Government Was Yanukovych's Ouster Constitutional? (http://www.rferl.org/content/was-yanukovychs-ouster-constitutional/25274346.html) so the raging argument that Crimea can't separate cause it violates the constitution are interesting.
Free & fair election: I think it will be fair because of all the attention it will get. Intimidation: I'd sooner be casting a vote for Ukraine in Crimea than vote for Yanu-to-stay in the Ukrainian parliament with Right Sector & Svoboda 'supporters' looking on!
I'm sure that any enterprising young reporter can find some citizens in Crimea who don't want to secede- hint: ask people not carrying Russian flags. It does tend to prove though that they aren't exactly living in fear. We should know by next week. Don't know if pro-Russians in Kyev would be equally forthcoming to reporters.
Finally- why does everyone ignore Canada's support to the demonstrators long before, and after the revolution? Media on both sides go on about US/EU support, but we get left out. We've been in since the beginning. May have something to do with 3% of our populace/voters being of Ukrainian descent, but I certainly am not cynical enough to think so.

[TEEEJ]

Putin isn't even going to raise an eye-brow over E-3s monitoring from NATO airspace. NATO has a perfect right to utilize assets to increase situational awareness. If hostilities, or a ramp up of tension, broke out between Russian and Ukrainian forces then isn't it only correct that NATO has the assets in place to monitor the situation?

[Bollotom]

While walking the oneupmanship tightrope twixt them and us, what would be the effect of a rapid inculcation of Ukraine into NATO? :cool:

[rh200]

Don't these fools realise that they are just stoking a fire they just cannot control

Hardly, as said before, I think some basic armed peace keeping troops could call his bluff. A few outside aircraft patrolling Ukraine airspace would do it as well.

Putin has been ahead of us the whole time, he judged we would just stand by and p!ss our pants. "Oh trade sanctions, no Germany and the US corporations will get hurt". Intervention, "Oh no it might turn into world war 3" "Oh its not our problem"

He must be sitting there laughing. He doesn't want a showdown, his troops arn't wearing any identifing markings, when pointed out that the vehicles had Russian number plates from specific units, they have been removed.

He's playing a game, whilst he gets control and gets Irregulars in control, read Serbian mercenarys.

It looks like again, after all of last century, we are still allowing the big players to just trade off countrys like chips

[NutLoose]

N2erk, legitimate or not, that still does not give a Country the right to invade another Sovereign State and occupy part of it and the ex president did not have the powers to legally invite them in. They have country elections planned, so the time for the ex president to put his case is then, and Russia should have no say in any of them.

[Ronald Reagan]

Well done Putin and Russia. I admire you even more after all of this.

[TC_Ukraine]

few hours ago Russian troops strormed Air Traffic Control centre and Tower in Simferopol (Crimea, Ukraine). Now higher airspace is under control by adjacent Ukrainian centres.

[NutLoose]

Thoughts are with you all :(

[TEEEJ]

Journalist Simon Ostrovsky has been producing some interesting videos from Crimea.

TNKsLlK52ss&feature=related

Y57vy4vWb-E&feature=related

QnpXASPd1h4&feature=related

UGSrcYLsOMI&feature=related

pFlLN9E2kcY&feature=related

[Ronald Reagan]

Yanukovich: I'm alive, I'm still president, I'll be back (FULL STATEMENT)
http://youtu.be/MDAndXulEoY

[NutLoose]

You know Reagan, I never think badly of anyone, but in your case I would be willing to chip in £50 quid towards your ticket to the Crimea to give you a reality check. You are either very very naive, have never served a day in Uniform, or simply are a prepubescent child with an urge to rub oneself up against others as some form of sexual gratification.

[GreenKnight121]

No, for the last 6+ years RR has made clear his devotion to Russia - to the point I'm uncertain whether he is simply a Russian ex-pat living in the UK to take advantage of the better health care (and to work to influence gullible Brits to support Russian goals) or is a Russian planted agent.

Either way his nationalistic loyalty to Russia far exceeds any UK loyalty he is pretending.

[TEEEJ]

Latest from Simon Ostrovsky. He gets into a bit of a scrape with the Berkut!

EdBeGwXgoqI&feature=related

[Trim Stab]

Interesting to note how little opposition there is to within Crimea to the "occupation" by Russian troops. The Russian force is small (6000 according to US sources) and lightly armed, Crimea is the size of Belgium, and the place is awash with light arms - yet there has not been a single incident of resistance by the local population.

At the height of the troubles in NI we had 27000 troops based in a province half the size of Crimea, we had the support of approximately ⅔ of the population, yet still couldn't control the place.

I conclude that the majority of the population welcome the Russian troops.

The press have dug up a few disgruntled Ukrainians to interview - but it is clear that the vast majority of the population there want and support the Russian presence.

[t43562]

At the height of the troubles in NI we had 27000 troops based in a province half the size of Crimea, we had the support of approximately ⅔ of the population, yet still couldn't control the place.
But NI is still part of the UK. So much for the armed resistance. Ukranians have the lovely example of Chechnya to look forward to. I wonder who will be the first to get his pistol out and die for freedom?

[Trim Stab]

t43562 - you're missing the point - most people in Crimea want to be part of Russia.

[Bastardeux]

most people in Crimea want to be part of Russia.

You're basing that purely on the anecdotal evidence of the fact that 2 weeks into an occupation that could be permanent, anti-Russians haven't started firing yet. How do you know they even have access to the number of weapons necessary to take on a force like that? I wouldn't even imagine that all of the 59% of Russian speaking residents of Crimea welcome the Russians, and those folks that got beaten up on Sunday would definitely disagree with you, never mind that Tartars that are having crosses appear on their doors!

[NutLoose]

"That and the fact those who do not wish to be part of Russia are no doubt sitting at home behind closed doors pooing themselves. It makes you wonder if it isn't resolved how the two halves of the population will ever reintegrate. You do not know what the majority of the Country wants, wherever a TV crew turf up, "rent a crowd" will be sure to be in attendance.

Stage enough little "rent a crowd" events and you soon start to paint a picture in the news that the majority want this, throw in a rigged / unlawful / one sided referendum intimidating the pro Ukrainian populace and you are now into Kim Jong-un and his 100% turn out and result territory.




What they need is a mediator who is skilled in the art of devolution, one suggests sending them Salmond and his cronies to help out.. :rolleyes:

[Trim Stab]

Bastardeaux - read my original post - the fact that a tiny force of 6000 is able to occupy an area nearly the size of Belgium suggest very strongly that the majority of the population support their presence.

[Ronald Reagan]

Belarus offers Russia to deploy extra 15 planes due to NATO activity near border - News - Politics - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_12/Belarus-offers-Russia-to-deploy-extra-15-planes-due-to-NATO-activity-near-border-5336/)

[NutLoose]

Nice to see Cameroon in Israel telling their parliament his and I quote "and commitment to Israel's security will always be rock solid". Tell that to Ukraine who thought theirs was too..

[Robert Cooper]

Bloomberg is just reporting that the US has escalated even further, citing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, who "has claimed that in the case of an escalation of unrest in Crimea, the U.S. Army is ready to back up Ukraine and its allies in Europe with military actions."

Bob C

[NutLoose]

Boy, has Putin seriously got this wrong.

[barnstormer1968]

TS
Maybe you need to find a comparison that is even remotely similar to illustrate your point.

The Brit army trying to control a few hundred dissidents who were not afraid of the consequences of being caught bear no relation to someone deciding to start shooting at an armed force that has a history of wiping out opposition with total brutality.........as opposed to force feeding 'hunger strikers' in prison while allowing them to be the category of prisoner they wish to be, have parades, wear their own clothes and then later just let them off from their crimes.

Not quite the same as a visit from spetznas where a six inch rusty nail is hammered into your forehead to make the point that you were a naughty boy.


On a larger scale I'm sure you understand why no state is going to kick out the Russians either! Ivan walks quietly in Crimea but has a stick so big that no one in their right mind wants him to start using it (all IMHO)

That is not to say that a large amount of citizens from Crimea don't want to be part of Russia, but that the small amount of troops has no bearing here.

[Ronald Reagan]

Putin's ratings higher than ever: 70% ready to vote if elections were held Sunday - News - Russia - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video (http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_03_12/Putins-ratings-higher-than-ever-70-ready-to-vote-if-elections-were-held-Sunday-2314/)

[Lonewolf_50]

Bloomberg is just reporting that the US has escalated even further, citing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, who "has claimed that in the case of an escalation of unrest in Crimea, the U.S. Army is ready to back up Ukraine and its allies in Europe with military actions." Bob C
Why did our civilian leadership dump that PR release on the General?

:mad:

PS: FFS, are our people in Washington really that thick?

PPS: is that REALLY what the general said?

[GreenKnight121]

Bastardeaux - read my original post - the fact that a tiny force of 6000 is able to occupy an area nearly the size of Belgium suggest very strongly that the majority of the population support their presence.

In excess of 20,000 now (up to 30,000) - unless you are only listening to Putin's claims.
Russia closing door on Crimea as troops build up (http://www.smh.com.au/world/russia-closing-door-on-crimea-as-troops-build-up-20140313-hvi0c.html)

Note this part of the article The referendum, announced suddenly by the pro-Russian government of Crimea earlier this month, asks citizens to choose between reuniting Crimea with Russia or restoring Crimea’s 1992 constitution, in which Crimea is effectively recognised as an independent state.

There is no option on the ballot for "remain part of Ukraine".

Nice "free and open" election, eh?

[NutLoose]

Why did our civilian leadership dump that PR release on the General?

Wasn't it the Gulf war where the Secretary of State etc where huddled around trying to decide who would announce to the world the US where sending fighters to the Gulf, when it was announced by some US sergeant who filed flight plans for everything before the announcement.
.

[rh200]

Actually some reports starting to come in that there are protests in Crimea to release some of the anti Russian protestors that have been detained.

[t43562]

Trim Stab I have colleagues in Odessa (so not the Crimea) who have seen people walking outside with Russian flags. their first instinct, and a wise one, is to keep away from it all. I can imagine the same feeling in the Crimea only more so.

The effect of the Russian presence is to make Russian protestors safe and anyone who disagrees with them publicly a bloody brave person or an idiot depending on how you look at it.

Is there really any guarantee that all the Russian-speakers in the Ukranine are unaware of how useful it would be to them to be part of the EU?

[Wensleydale]

If Putin had left alone, and Ukraine joined the EU, then in a few years time, his Russian speaking population could have moved to the UK to become an oppressed minority so he that could send in the troops to rescue them at their request... :sad:

[NutLoose]

Oh dear, one thought that stupidity on the news was a thing of the past.... will they never learn. I thought Chernobyl had taught the world that leasson.

'Russia could turn USA into radioactive ashes' on MSN Video (http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/russia-could-turn-usa-into-radioactive-ashes/2gmfet9g)

[Trim Stab]

I read that the unelected regime in Ukraine is now forming a 40,000 strong "National Guard", largely recruited from the right-wing thugs and militias that overthrew the President, reporting directly to the so-called "interim government"

Ask yourself why they need a "National Guard" when they have a 144,000 strong standing army? The answer is that the army swore allegiance to the President of Ukraine, so the new, unelected, interim government does not trust them. They are thus forming this "National Guard" out of some very unpalatable right-wing militias - some of whom openly parade under the Swastika.

Lots of parallels with Hitler's decision to form his own private army, directly answerable to himself - the SS.

We really are backing the wrong side in this. We should never have stood by while the democratically elected President was overthrown. It is absurd that we are now threatening to go to war to support a government in Kiev that has never been elected, and which clearly does not have any support from the east of the country.

[melmothtw]

Stand by for a 98% vote in favour, I'd say.


Not such a bad prediction from 7 March there; I take a bow (though you hardly had to be clairvoyant to see it coming).

As Stalin put it, 'it's not important how people vote, what's important is how you count them'.

[melmothtw]

Trim Stab, I admire your ability to take the facts and just turn them on their head. That's quite a skill.

[Lonewolf_50]

War of words has escalated.
NBC News - Breaking News & Top Stories - Latest World, US & Local News (http://www.nbcnews.com/#/storyline/ukraine-crisis/kremlin-backed-journalist-russia-could-turn-u-s-ash-n54291)

"Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly current affairs show. Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast.

Kiselyov was named by President Vladimir Putin in December as the head of a new state news agency whose task will be to portray Russia in the best possible light.
I am sure that will go over well with the "we hate America as a reflex" crowd.

Keep it classy, Dimitry. :p

[melmothtw]

I would say that any nuclear power is capable of turning the US or any other country into radioactive ash. That's the nature of the beast, unfortunately.

[Trim Stab]

So melmothw, please explain why you think the unelected "interim government" feels the need to form a militia, directly answerable to itself? Hardly a step forward for democracy, peace and stability is it?

[melmothtw]

Not going to get drawn into (another) argument on this one Trim Stab. I think after 245 posts on the subject that those who are minded to change their minds probably have, and those that aren't won't.

[BEagle]

Having watched quite a few TV news items about this, there are 2 people who stand out in particular as being totally and utterly irrelevant and unreasonable:

1. The odious John Kerry, who acts like the bad guy from one of the poorer episodes of Star Trek - the Universe's dominant robot.

2. That ridiculous little Mekon William Hague. Surely we can find someone better to hold the position of Foreign Secretary?

If Putin was to turn to the West and say "Just $od off and mind your own business, will you!", would anyone be surprised - or disagree?

[SASless]

Beags......as many times as we have differed.....on this one I solidly agree with you without any let or hindrance!:D:ok:

Lurch is a National Embarrassment!

[air pig]

Biggest load of sh1t on Sky news paper review, going on about a Times report about RAF fighters going to the Baltic states. Don't jouno's do some research. Baltic states air policing system has been going on for years. :ugh::ugh::ugh::ugh:

[rh200]

"Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly current affairs show.

:cool: Someone should wheel out a right wing commentator of our own, just remind them that whilst they could do that, whilst its occuring the very same thing would be happening to them.:p Or has Barry stood all you guys down. Maybe some premptive save the world get rid of your nukes sort of thing.