Analysis-Lost Brazil order raises threat to Boeing fighter jets

[Lyneham Lad]

As this Reuters article (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/21/uk-boeing-fighters-analysis-idUKBRE9BK03220131221) addresses points well beyond the lost Brazilian order, I thought a new thread warranted.

(Reuters) - Brazil's decision to buy Swedish fighter jets instead of F/A-18 Super Hornets from Boeing eliminates its most promising foreign-sales prospect just as the U.S. company faces critical decisions about extending the jet's production line past 2016.

The loss of the $4.5 billion contract for 36 planes is the latest blow to Boeing's defence division, whose F-15 fighter jet last month lost a potential 60-plane order from South Korea to Lockheed Martin Corp's next-generation F-35 fighter.

Without new orders, both programs, based in St. Louis, Missouri, could fold in several years, effectively putting Boeing out of the fighter-jet business until a next-generation plane is developed, a decade or more in the future. The closures would follow the shuttering of Boeing's C-17 military transport plane production, in Long Beach, California, set for 2015, also because of sagging sales.

All these prospects present a near-term threat to Boeing's defence business. Fighters and C-17s accounted for 40 percent of Boeing's military aircraft deliveries so far this year. Military aircraft sales totalled $11.5 billion in the first nine months of 2013, down from $11.9 billion a year ago. (Boeing does not break down revenue by product line.)

Click on the link (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/12/21/uk-boeing-fighters-analysis-idUKBRE9BK03220131221) for the rest of the article.

[LowObservable]

Interesting story. The big problem is lack of USG support.

The notion that the SH costs $70m with "targeting pods and other equipment that is standard on the F-35" is bosh. The only such equipment is the pod and that doesn't cost $19m. Fact is that the SH is far cheaper than the F-35A and half the price of the F-35C, which still hasn't landed on the carrier and because of its lame transonic acceleration is basically a bomber.

That's why LMT and the JSF true believers are desperate to shut down the SH, and why the Navy is not allowed to commit to the Advanced SH improvements and upgrades even though they are completely logical - with delays to JSF, the SH and Growler will be around to 2040. Those upgrades will happen but the JSF community wants the production line closed before they do.

On paper, however, USG policy is that no upgrades are funded and the production line is to close, which makes brand-new SHs hard to sell.

[Just This Once...]

LO I agree with what you say but for clarity the SH transonic acceleration is not top-drawer either. Clearly on other performance areas the SH is pretty reasonable.

Regarding the cost of the pod at some point one will need to be procured for the F-35 and that will cost some beans. The USMC is eager to get a pod on the F-35B sooner rather than later.

[Lowe Flieger]

Reinforces other recent articles about the lack of choice for new fighters a few short years from now. Unless new orders keep Eagles and Super Hornets in production, the choices (excluding Russian or Chinese planes) will be down to F35, Rafale, Gripen, T50, or other light fighters based on advanced trainers. Not all of the F35 alternatives are that cheap either. Many hard up forces will probably opt for service life extensions or refurbished buys of F16's, for example. Not that these are bad aircraft by any means but at some time they will have to be replaced.

This really does put an awful lot of pressure on F35 proving a winner. If it isn't, it's very unclear where its operators can go from there, other than to just get on with it. Those countries intending, by design or by chance, to mix their F35 buys with existing types can hedge their bets until they have real life experience of F35 - the UK is one such and the US, especially the USN, another. Those where it is to be 100% of their fighter inventory, well they just have to make it work for them however it turns out in practice.

Perhaps Rafale/Gripen/T50 etc can clean up the market where F35 is unaffordable, but as is being discussed on the thread covering Typhoon's failure in the UAE, military purchasing is often about much more than hardware capabilities. Can French Swedish or Korean offerings really replace US products and, more importantly, political and strategic support? If only my crystal ball wasn't so fogged up, I would know where to place my bet.

LF

[JFZ90]

i thought the f35 came with the required eo/ir and (scottish) laser as standard fit, so why would you need a pod?

[Just This Once...]

Laser and IR yes, but nothing else. Can you see through the facetted windows underneath? Is the answer no?

Visible light does not get through so no point having an HD colour daylight TV. Without a pod you are back to the black and white world of IR with all the attendant issues. Those that live and breath CAS are keen on getting back what they have right now.

[kbrockman]

My best guess is that they (Boeing) are going to go full throttle for the future advanced trainer program. (with SaaB)
Looking at the specs of what it must be able to deliver, it is going to be both an advanced trainer, and for many air forces, in time, a true replacement for current light weight frontline fighters like the A4's, F5's, MIII & 2000, F1's and even Russian made Mig 21's and for some , even a replacement (be it partially or completely) for their current F16 and F18's.

[SASless]

Every production line goes cold at some point in its life.....we are not building Spitfires anymore are we?

[GeeRam]

Every production line goes cold at some point in its life.....we are not building Spitfires anymore are we?

Given the amount of new build from scratch Spitfires that have flown in the past decade, I think you could easily answer yes to that question.....:)

[SASless]

A lesson we might take from that however is....if we were to start production of new Spitfires again, can you imagine what it would cost to open up that production line and fabrication of all the parts, engines, and such!

Finding a way to keep a line tooled up and producing even very limited numbers does have some merit.

Sadly, the mis-prioritization of spending by Governments gets in the way of that as spendable funds have become scarce for any number of fuzzy feel good notions that have had severe un-intended consequences for government.

[tartare]

From a fighter pilot's point of view is the EO DAS on the F-35 likely to be of any practical use, or just a gimmick?
I assume something this complex is designed as integral to the jet and couldn't be retrofitted to an aircraft like the Super Hornet?

[kbrockman]

The EODAS and the APG81 AESA radar (both NORTHROP) can be implemented fairly easily on any existing or new platform ever since 2010 according to the salespeople of NORTHROP themselves.
Front End of the Kill-Chain | Defense Media Network (http://www.defensemedianetwork.com/stories/front-end-of-the-kill-chain/)
......
So we have this additional capability, and our intention is to publicize that so that it could be utilized based on the needs of the Department of Defense.”

Edwards confirms that Northrop Grumman intends to offer DAS for platforms other than the JSF.

“There’s nothing about the DAS system that would prevent it from being applicable to other platforms if that was desired. Integration would be the only real developmental work required.”
....

[tartare]

That is very interesting kbrockman - thanks for the post.
If that's the case - given it's cost and questionable performance in some areas of the envelope, what is the F-35 actually good at?

[GeeRam]

what is the F-35 actually good at?

Hemorrhageing global defence budgets......:E

[racedo]

Hemorrhageing global defence budgets......http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/evil.gif

Like putting all the eggs in one basket and realise that due to cutbacks you have sold off all the hens but one and this one doesn't lay any more.

[dazdaz1]

SAS..... "A lesson we might take from that however is....if we were to start production of new Spitfires again, can you imagine what it would cost to open up that production line and fabrication of all the parts, engines, and such!

Peugeot/VW/Ford can have a new model driving out of the factory after six months of jigging/post design. I'm sure a Spit could be produced in less time. Having said that a Lanc came of the production line (Avro Manchester) every eight hours.

The problem being, with our high tech a/c is the training of pilots. I would imagine a person 1940s with a ppl would be instantly signed up to the RAF.

Today, how long would it take for a pilot (European conflict) to train up as a pilot on fighters? More than a few weeks I'd imagine.By then, we'd be facked