Aircraft Order Predictions for Dubai Airshow Are.....

[Iver]

This airshow will be huge for the big 3 carriers as well as other regional players and their pilots.

So, just for fun, any "serious" (if that is possible on Pprune :ugh:) predictions on fleet orders/options?


My predictions:

EK: 150 777-9X, 20 A380

Other UAE carrier: 30 787-9, 30 777-9X, 50 A321 NEO

QR: 30 A350-1000, 50 C-Series CS300

FlyDubai: 100 737-800 MAX, 10 A330s from EK


I will most likely be way off the mark. Regardless, should be interesting to watch! We should know soon enough. :ok:

[High Energy]

Flydubai already mentioned in a reuters article: 75 x B738 MAX. No mention of options.

[FlyingTinCans]

Flydubai: 50 x 737 Max's, 15 x 737 - 800's to bridge the gap until the first Max can be delivered, and some 787 options

[vfenext]

Fly Dubai to go A320 Neo.

[Aquaplaner]

Emirates: 150 x 777-9X and either 50 x 777-300ER or firm additional 50 x A350-1000

[a747jb]

Best Guess:

EK:
100 777-9x
Convert some or all A350 orders to 380's

QR:
30 777-9x
30 A350-1000
10 A380

No Name Airline:
No orders due to the fact airshow is in the wrong Emirate :ugh:

[Gravox]

CX likely to order 777X. Smaller order than EK and likes possibly 35 units.
A rumour out our way is the 748i in the interim. We can still dream ;-)

[trimotor]

Prediction: there will never be an A350 in EK colours, operated by EK.

[Airmann]

So what do you think will happen with he 70 A350s they have on order?

[Capn Rex Havoc]

Flight International 12 Nov 2013 edition has Tim Clark in a Video interview stating "Fleet will eventually grow to 240 aircraft combination of 380s,ERs, and 350s eventually"

[flaphandlemover]

Fly Dubai 75 Airbus Neos

Ek 200 B777X

my 2 cents

[Mr Good Cat]

I would be surprised if we took ANY A350-1000. It's not quite enough for EK against the capability of the 777-8 and -9.

However I'm certain we'll see the 350-900 on lower capacity routes that currently demand a 330 / 340 / 772.

Maybe the 20 -1000s already ordered will be converted to top up the 380 or 359 orders.

I'm going for 175 77X, a mix of 8 and 9s.

[Iver]

What about Air Arabia? A320 NEO orders to refresh their fleet?

Although I believe QR will ultimately order the Bombardier C-Series CS300 for longer, thinner routes, it is a shame Bombardier has been so delayed in their development. That may push any QR C-Series order out a few months.

[Wizofoz]

I also think EK will get some more 777Fs.

Brilliant aircraft that is making the company a lot of money.

[fatbus]

Keep in mind the fleet plan looks like 250 by 2020, when the move to DWC might happen. 777x not happening until 2020

[fantom]

KAC will order three Aztecs, I hear.

[Plazbot]

Horizon Academy, 4 F16s, a GA20 'Fatman' and 453 727s.

[GoreTex]

50 A380 for EK

[akerosid]

We should have the first indication in about 4h; there is an Etihad press conference at mid-day; an order for 777Xs and 787-10s is expected.

As GoreTex says, 50 more A380s are expected from EK, to add to the 90 now on order; total 140. This would be the first order in over a year for the 380.

Shh ... if you listen carefully, you can just hear half a dozen senior European airline CEOs choking on their cereal ...

Photo: A6-EEC (CN: 110) Emirates Airbus A380-861 by John Fitzpatrick - JetPhotos.Net (http://www.jetphotos.net/viewphoto.php?id=7694517)

[scandistralian]

Just announced at press conference

EK 150 777x + 50 options :ok::ok::ok:

Fly Dubai 11 737NG + 100 737MAX

Qatar Airways joined EK in the press conference; they are buying 50 firm 777-9X

Interesting to see the EK/FD/QR joint announcement...

[Xulu]

So is it airbus day today then? Are EK sticking to their ~250 fleet by 2020, or looking to expand further?

[scandistralian]

and 50 more A380's on the way... :ok:

[Rather Be Skiing]

150 B777X plus 50 purchase options.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/dubai-emirates-qatar-sign-for-777x-flydubai-for-737-max-393131/

[YYZ]

Interesting times ahead!


Today, we have broken all records in civil aviation history by ordering 200 aircraft. This includes 150 Boeing 777X – 35 Boeing 777-8Xs and 115 Boeing 777-9Xs – plus 50 purchase rights, and an additional 50 Airbus A380 aircraft.

The total order, excluding the purchase rights, is worth an estimated US$99 billion (around Dhs364 billion) at list prices. The Boeing aircraft order is worth US$76 billion (around Dhs279 billion) and the Airbus order is worth US$23 billion (around Dhs84 billion).

Combined, it is the largest aircraft order in civil aviation history. Interestingly, our Boeing order is also the single largest aircraft order by value in the history of U.S. commercial aviation.

We now have on order 385 aircraft – 214 Boeing 777s, 101 Airbus A380s, and 70 A350s – at a total estimated value of US$166 billion (around Dhs610 billion). This excludes options and purchase rights.

Why are we ordering so many aircraft?

I assure you that we don’t make such big announcements to grab media headlines or to satisfy an ego trip. Our orders are backed by solid research, meticulous planning and robust financials now and in the future.

According to the International Civil Aviation Organization, three billion people travelled by air in 2012, and more than six billion people will do so by 2030. We need to be prepared for the quantum leap in air travel. You also know that we are gearing up to receive 70 million passengers by 2020.

We have one of the youngest fleets in the skies – the average age of our aircraft is 77 months – and we would like to maintain that status quo. It means better comfort for our customers, better maintenance and, above all, better safety.

In the medium term, we will be retiring approximately 50 aircraft in three years. Today’s order will help us replace these and grow our fleet numbers. While delivery of the newly launched 777X is scheduled to start in 2020, delivery of 25 of the A380s will begin before the first quarter of 2018. In the meantime, deliveries on our current order book will help us cater to demand.

Boeing 777s

Our 777-8X will potentially seat 342 passengers in three classes, and the 777-9X will seat over 440 passengers in two classes. With more than 131 in service, we already operate the largest fleet of 777s anywhere in the world. We are the only airline to fly all variants of the 777 family.

The 777 is the workhorse of our fleet.

Airbus A380s

As you are well aware, with 39 in service, we also currently operate the world’s largest fleet of A380s. We now have 101 A380s on order worth US$45 billion (around Dhs165 billion). The A380s in today’s order will come in two- and three-class configurations. Our A380s have been a true crowd-puller and have given us enormous advantages in terms of efficiency, economics and customer comfort.

The A380 is the flagship of our fleet.

Our long-term vision to build bridges and connect people to places and their passions is on course to becoming a reality. Tomorrow is here, and everything is possible.

[MCO951]

QR staff turned us away from looking at the 787 on display today at the DXB airshow.

Referred us to the office desk for tix, desk staff very coldly said it was invite only today, come back tomorrow.

ROYAL BRUNEI staff were very accommodating, and invited us to visit, to stay and chat, to tour the entire airplane. "Here try the lay flat business class seats!"

Very nice people, thank Royal Brunei!

QR, not so much! Annual travel home will not be on QR, thanks...

Crew on the National 757 was super nice, as well!

[8sugarsugar]

Where are they going to put all these new airplanes? Only logical thing I can think of is more 5th freedom flights (ie. Milan-New York, Paris-LAX)

[SOPS]

I wonder what ALPA will have to say about that order.:E

[ironbutt57]

ALPO too busy whipsawing their own hometown pilot groups...:rolleyes:

[White Knight]

I wonder what ALPA will have to say about that order.


Does anyone really care what ALPA says?

[SOPS]

It was meant to be a rhetorical question.:p

[WalterMitty]

Some interesting coincidence of numbers. In a few months the T7X has produced 259 orders. In 13 years the A380 has had 259 orders but today of course an extra 50. I don't give a toss about A vs B but clearly airlines do.

[White Knight]

I know... I was trying a rhetorical answer:ok: Guess I should have used a smiley:D:ok:

[maddog62]

haha...dubaieye (103.8) just called the T7 the "mini-jumbo"...

...soo funny 😜

md

[Plazbot]

So no GA20 for Horizon then?

[Iver]

So, is it definitive that EK are keeping the A350 order and NOT trading them in for more A380s (part of 50 A380 order)? Will the A350 order stand at EK?

[Wizofoz]

Seems so, but I can't see why they'd want the 350-1000 AND the 777-8- they are a very similar size.

The 350-900 would make sense.

[donpizmeov]

Is it true all the 9xs are going to be two class? Seems a bit of a waste.

The don.

[Wizofoz]

They're at least 7 years away, Don. Whatever is being said now is unlikely to be the final configuration.

STILL- with no "F", they should be able to leave the decent CRC in!!

ETA- The article actually says the -9s will be a mix of two and three class.

[donpizmeov]

That's makes a bit more sense then Wiz. I have only seen the article above and thought it was a bit weird.

The don.

[Kiwikid]

From CBSNews.com

Nothing really new but the last paragraph is interesting. I wonder how Boeing came up with those numbers and do you think that many pilots/technicians will really be required? I know its a lot of new aircraft but have they considered how many older ones will be retired?

Airlines order $130B worth of Boeing planes
November 17, 2013
by CBNews.com

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates Boeing Co.'s planned 777X long-haul airliner grabbed the bulk of orders Sunday at the first day of the Dubai Airshow, with at least 225 planes on the books in an eye-popping display of the spending power and aggressive expansion efforts of Gulf carriers.

In total, Boeing says that it netted at least 367 orders in deals believed to exceed $130 billion at the Middle East's premier aviation fair. Boeing CEO James McNerney Jr. called it part of the "largest commercial launch in aviation history" for a planned aircraft: the bigger and more fuel-efficient model of the company's popular 777 wide-body.

European rival Airbus opened the five-day airshow by announcing a $23 billion order for 50 A380s - its main competition for the 777X - by Dubai-based Emirates.

The Dubai Airshow is seen as an increasingly important barometer on the state of the industry and the rising roles of the big-spending Gulf carriers Etihad, Qatar Airways and Emirates as they compete for routes and critical stopover traffic between Asia and Europe and the Americas. This year's edition appears on track to surpass the record $155 billion in deals in the 2007 event before the global economic downturn.

For Boeing and Airbus, the Dubai event has become a key battleground for new aircraft and big-ticket orders that can shape the companies' outlooks for years.

Boeing received orders for 150 777X planes from Emirates, 50 from Qatar Airways and 25 from Abu Dhabi's Etihad Airways, the U.S.-based manufacturer and the airlines announced in separate news conferences. No total price tag was announced, but it exceeded $100 billion. Boeing also inked deals with Etihad for 30 of its 787-10 Dreamliners and one cargo plane, and with budget carrier flydubai for 111 of its single-aisle 737 models.

The Dreamliner deal is an important nod of support in the Gulf for the troubled aircraft, which has suffered groundings in the past year over battery problems.

The 777X orders come even as Chicago-based Boeing looks for alternative sites to develop the plane after machinists in the Seattle area rejected a long-term contract.

The long-range, twin-aisle 777 holds about 365 passengers, making it Boeing's second-biggest plane. Since its first flight in 1994, it's been a best-seller for Boeing, which has sold more 777s than any of its other current large planes.

In May, it began offering the revamped 777X. Boeing is still finalizing plans for the plane - aiming to deliver the first aircraft by the end of the decade - but it has said it is expected to carry as many as 400 passengers and to be 20 percent more fuel efficient than the current 777.

Previously, Lufthansa had made a commitment for 34 of the 777X.

The airshow is also giving Dubai a chance to display its huge new airport south of the city, which officially opened last month but is still under construction in some areas. Plans calls for some of the traffic from Dubai's current airport to be eventually shifted to the new Maktoum International facility, which officials say could one day handle 160 million passengers a year as part of the region's growing profile as a global aviation hub.

In the Middle East, 40,000 pilots and 53,000 technicians will be needed in the next two decades to keep up with demand, according to a Boeing forecast.

[F14]

I would say each of the big 3 are currently taking 500-1000 each year for the next 3 years and the orders are now stretching even further forward. 40,000 maybe on the low side.

However this would be 40,000 courses I guess, not a total workforce. Turnover, due retirements and people returning home or moving on would run at about 15% of the community year on year.

These are general figures....:ok:

[Iver]

What about Turkish Airlines and their potential orders at the show?

Turkish seems to be the "stealth" airline with everyone focusing on the big 3 Gulf carriers.

My prediction for a big Turkish widebody order: 40 777-X, 20 787-10, 35 A350-9, 20 A330F



Not only will they need to replace older A340s, A330s and 777s in the coming years, but they will need new airplanes to fill their gates at their huge newly planned airport over the next decade. If Turkish wants to compete with the big 3 over the next 20 years, they will need long range airplanes that can be filled to capacity.