Life expectancy in retirement: mil/civvy differential (AFPS FAQ July 2013).

[Al R]

Yesterday's published AFPS15 FAQ contained a nugget which was discussed here a while back (sorry, I couldn't find the thread). The published MoD FAQ document claims that in general, those who have been commissioned into the Armed Forces tend to live a little longer than civilian counterparts and those who were enlisted lived for a year less:

• A UK male who was aged 60 in 2010 would generally have a life expectancy of 86 years and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 88 years.
• A retired male Officer who was aged 60 in 2010 would have a life expectancy of 90 and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 92.
• A retired male Other Rank who was aged 60 in 2010 would have a life expectancy of 87 and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 90.


The difference between a female officer and a male ranker is quite startling. Whoever and whatever you are, anecdotally, this is at odds with what we tend to pick up along the way and certainly not what I remembered to be Gunshed dictat (ie; Warrant Officers dropping like flies 6 months after demob). There is no referencing in the document to support the claims though and it also claims that the increases in life expectancy are likely to continue - that, at odds with latest actuarial data which suggests the increases in life expectancy are actually starting to slow down (good news for annuity companies, bad news if you're alive).

There are some quite useful pub ammo pieces in it; namely serving to scheme pensionable age, transitional arrangements to serve until the new EDP and using a portion of accrued funds to help buy a home (that'll be interesting). My i-pad won't let me post a link to the 'cached' document, only save it as a pdf but if you want to read the content, the document is publically available on the Armed Forces Pension Scheme Help and Information Exchange (https://www.facebook.com/ArmedForcesPensionScheme?ref=hl) FB community page. If you don't do Facebook and want to read it in full, someone might search 'New Military Pension FAQ July 2013' etc and post the link?

[Whenurhappy]

God! My family will have to put up with me for another 39 years...

Fascinating statistics - and does put paid to the post-institutionalised death rates that are oft suggested. What would be interesting to see is the scatter plot of deaths after retirement. There may be an initial cluster of deaths post Service...but I am surprised that an average figure is used (and sensistive to extremes) rather than a median. Do you have a link to these FAQs?

[charliegolf]

and does put paid to the post-institutionalised death rates that are oft suggested.

Does it? Al's snippet doesn't suggest that all those forces pensioners were the single, livers-in that often draw the, '18 months before falling off the twig' speculation. Maybe it still holds good for them?

CG

[DeepestSouth]

When I left in mid-1990 (commissioned, 19 yrs service) one of the resettlement briefings include the statistic that of those who retired at 55 but did not take up other employment, the average lifespan was 3 years! That amazed me and others at the briefing and we didn't believe it - but were assured that it was true. The point they were making was that idling about in 'pipe and slippers' at age 55 was seriously bad for your health and longevity. Since then, working in health, I've seen quite a lot of research supporting the idea that retiring and just stopping doing anything meaningful, at any age, is bad news. It's made me think and when I DO retire - for the second time - it will not be to a life of idleness. She Who Is To Be Obeyed will see to that!

[Onceapilot]

Al, thanks for posting. They may well be figures they are working with. How they generate them is anyones guess. Probably from some national model of population, extrapolated to reflect the "green standard of fitness", introduced in recent years, at retirement (60). Personally, I do not believe those as average figures, more like "average for the top 10% of survivors" . Having recently seen, from one squadron, several deaths and very serious health deteriorations among retired flightdeck crew in the 55 to 60 age bracket, I would be pushed to believe an overall AVERAGE life expectancy of 70ish for full career military personel.
They MUST have the real figures from the pension payments. They know exactly how many have been paid for how long! False long life-expectancy is a good way of cooking the pension, it is not unlike the way the pay rates through AFPRB are manipulated.

OAP

[NutLoose]

Just goes to show, even in death the "other ranks" have to show you how it's done first. :p

what you really need on your PC is this

The Death Clock - When Am I Going To Die? (http://www.deathclock.com/)

[SRENNAPS]

what you really need on your PC is this

Just tried it and apparently I died five years ago. Oh well, it must have been the drinking culture I was apart of :E :{:ok:

[just another jocky]

Al - is this (https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/211092/20130703-FAQs_V8-U.pdf) the document?

[Whenurhappy]

My senior Rate just asked if he should be paid more, pro rata, as he will kick the bucket earlier. Sounds fair to me...

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

I note from the obituaries that members of the Royal Aeronautical Society seem to live around 5 years longer than average. I suggest everyone joins; I have!

If anyone else knows of similar institutions....?

[gr4techie]

• A UK male who was aged 60 in 2010 would generally have a life expectancy of 86 years and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 88 years.
• A retired male Officer who was aged 60 in 2010 would have a life expectancy of 90 and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 92.
• A retired male Other Rank who was aged 60 in 2010 would have a life expectancy of 87 and a similar female would have a life expectancy of 90.

So what happens if you originally were enlisted, then commissioned from the ranks after a few years, then started wearing womens clothes and make up?

Overnight you have magically increased your life by 5 years.

[smujsmith]

GR4techie,

I suspect flight idle will be along to answer that one for you:=

Smudge

[SOSL]

I've only got £xxxxx quid left after chocks-off from the old nagger. With any luck I'll hang up my CWW boots before it runs out!

Rgds SOS

[goudie]

When I first read this I thought, buggah! Should have had a sex change and gone for a commission. Then when I checked the 'Death Clock' it said I'm not gonna die 'til 2029, when I'll be 92. This is the life expectancy of a commissioned female. What does this tell me?:confused:

[Danny42C]

SRENNAPS, (#7)

I died eight years ago. Get some in !

D.

[Tankertrashnav]

I note from the obituaries that members of the Royal Aeronautical Society seem to live around 5 years longer than average. I suggest everyone joins; I have!

If anyone else knows of similar institutions....?


I understand that C of E clergy are famously long-lived. Worth trying for holy orders?

[Four Types]

It is my stated intention to live beyond my 90th birthday....this way I will have been out of the mob longer than I actually served so every day's pension after that is a bonus!!..........:}

[smujsmith]

Fourtypes,

Cracking post, of course you have laid yourself open to the charge, welfare scrounger, benefits cheat and even oxygen thief! Amazing the vile hatred the average Daily Mail reader (assisted by the government) can fit into a couple of words. I wish you well, and sincerely hope that you achieve all you wish for.

Smudge:ok:

[Onceapilot]

Good coments guys:ok:. But folks, all this Gov spin on life expectancy is costing us in poorer pensions and worse T & C's:ouch:!

[Pontius Navigator]

If the V-force reunions are anything to go by there are plenty of grey heads, and equally old non-grey heads, at the reunion. Our AEO an inveterate smoker of the most vile concoctions shuffled off at age 90.

More recently though I am aware of several heavy smokers, including cheroot and cigar, who never got to draw their pensions.

Maybe it is these pre-retirement deaths that push the post-retirement expectation up.

We are very friendly with a retired WO1 (lately commissioned as Captain) who was an inveterate smoker until age 63 when he grim reaper beckoned. He is still pushing on at age 72 but realistically not much more.

As smoking is a killer I wonder how smoking varies between military and civilians and if that is a factor here?

[NutLoose]

Just tried it and apparently I died five years ago. Oh well, it must have been the drinking culture I was apart of


That explains a lot :}

[goudie]

I wonder how smoking varies between military and civilians

PN Looking back, I'm amazed at the encouragement one was given to take up smoking in the Services. When I arrived in Germany aged 18 I didn't smoke but what with crewroom culture and 200 non-tipped 'Senior Service' for ten bob I soon became a smoker. Luckily I was never a heavy smoker, 5/10 a day at the most and I gave up, after several attempts, over 25 year ago. For most of my 20 years service, though, duty free cigs were available to me.

[NutLoose]

Indeed, Customs used to hand out seized cigarettes to to be shared out amongst the sections at Bruggen where you could go get 200 for free when wanted, eventually all that were left were Menthols.....

[Pontius Navigator]

Same on Ascension Island, free issue to smokers and non-smokers alike.

I joined a smoking crew on Nimrods. Gradually fewer and fewer smoked until one day the skipper crashed a round. There were no takers and he didn't want to smoke alone. I think he stopped not long after.

[Onceapilot]

Smoking, drinking, rowdy lifestyle and a dangerous job. Some of the attributes previously encouraged, by the service, in most military careers. Also promised, was the pension. I hate to see promises broken :(.

OAP

[Al R]

Jocky,

Yes, thats the one - thanks. :ok:

Once a Pilot,

It isn't just longevity. The Institute of Faculty and Actuaries made the point a couple of years ago that the problem, in the actuarial sense, of (for instance) drawing Reservists into an unfunded scheme after 2 years service is that AFPS is unfunded - where will the extra money come from? One of the points of laying SP off was to make public sector pensions save money and be financially viable (cue talk of kicking cans down road). People living longer is causing problems because in days gone by; you'd have a heart attack and carp it. Now, you can be saved but it costs an absolute fortune.. we're paying too much money to too many people living for too long.

Price Waterhouse Cooper was commissioned to study the differences between officer/other ranks and officer serve to aged 55/officer 'normal' pension benefits. It used Continuous Mortality Investigation (Mortality Projections) and relied upon a series referred to as PNA00, and then rebalanced each demographic. I can't locate the PNA00 series - it would just be a series of numbers; the methodology probably wouldn't be explained anyway. PwC (I think - I stand by to be corrected) simply took the view that officers were similar to a professional cohort in civvy street that lived longer than ORs and a similar cohort. But yes, you make the point about the MoD simply knowing how long folk draw retirement benefits; if DASA knows WHERE we retire (http://www.dasa.mod.uk/modintranet/pensions.xls?PublishTime=09:30:00) to and work (http://www.dasa.mod.uk/applications/newWeb/www/index.php?page=48&pubType=0&thiscontent=120&PublishTime=08:30:00&date=2013-05-23&disText=01 April 2013&from=listing&topDate=2013-05-23).. :ooh:

The PwC report also made the point that you have to be commissioned until aged 55 to really get the benefits of the scheme (one of the 5-6% or so).. and someone who dies early and leaves a 50% survivors benefit really is getting a mucky end of the stick - that aspect of AFPS compares very badly to an uncrystalised personal defined contribution scheme which goes over completely to the survivor, free of tax. I do think there should be scope for allowing flexible, higher AFPS income for those servicemen and women with reduced life expectancy; that would make for fairness, but an unwieldy and complicated political nightmare.

GR4 techie,

It wouldn't do you no good - those who aspire to socio-economic greatness tend to show smaller increases in lonevity benefits! ;)

[dctyke]

Told my missus when I 'go' to stick me in the chest freezer and still recieve the full pension :ok:

[Al R]

PN,

I remember the cigar parades at Akrotiri - I never smoked but I remember NAAFI wanted them stopped though. For weeks afterwards, the armour would be thick with clouds of King Eddys; life was hell when we were battoned down but god.. we were a refined bunch.

dc,

Be careful! :eek:

Navy widow jailed over pension fraud - Echelon Wealthcare (http://www.echelonwealthcare.co.uk/navy-widow-jailed-over-pension-fraud/)

[Herod]

The death clock says I'll be around till just before my 93rd birthday. I intend to celebrate my century with a congratulatory email from King William and the thought of the pension trustees saying "Is that bugger STILL around?"

On thread again. Looking at the obituary pages, most of the older notices are ex-service. The suggestion is that the military only take those who are fit to begin with, and that will skew the figures.

[Onceapilot]

Thanks Al, I appreciate your efforts and info. I feel an FOI, requesting the historical pension payment statistics of service personel serving 30+ years and retiring at age 55 would be interesting. They have the info.

OAP

[Al R]

OAP,

No snags, I have one computer set aside purely for investment and retirement study and research. Sad, I know. :(

[thing]

The difference between being 'Normal' and 'Optimistic' is a staggering 16 years in my case. I love those surveys, in fact I think I can't stop smiling now. Just off to tell my neighbour that it will be sunny until Xmas.

[Fareastdriver]

I have got around 11.000.000 seconds left.

I had better start my goodbyes now.

[Onceapilot]

Just did my "death clock" on the You.Gov site and it says I will live till age 150

OAP

[glad rag]

Death clock. 16 Oct 2043

Is there a fighting cock in the house? Yam sing!!

[Tankertrashnav]

It is my stated intention to live beyond my 90th birthday....this way I will have been out of the mob longer than I actually served so every day's pension after that is a bonus!!..........http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/badteeth.gif


Already way ahead of you on that one. I came out on the 1975 redundancy scheme which offered a pro rata pension if you had a minimum 9 years qualifying service, thus I have been drawing a service pension since 3 days after my 30th birthday. In actual money terms I've already drawn far more than I was ever paid as salary and my time on a pension is already three times the twelve years I served. If I make it to 90 (admittedly pretty unlikely with my genes) I'll have been on a pension for 60 years.

Worth making an effort for!

[ShyTorque]

I kept clicking and it came up with a different day each time.

I'm going for the one in 2055 when I'll be 99 and 11 months.

[thing]

I kept clicking and it came up with a different day each time.

I'm going for the one in 2055 when I'll be 99 and 11 months.

There's no box for egg whisk driver though...bound to affect it.

[PingDit]

I remember the original thread on this subject. When I retired (for the first time) after 22 years, the stat's were that; if you were in any of the armed forces, police, ambulance or fire service, if you served until age 55, 75% died within 5 years of retirement.

[MrWoollie]

There is a staggering difference in the death clock between being a pessimist (dead in 2017) and an optimist (dead on my 92nd birthday in 2054).

[gr4techie]

Quote:
I wonder how smoking varies between military and civilians
PN Looking back, I'm amazed at the encouragement one was given to take up smoking in the Services. When I arrived in Germany aged 18 I didn't smoke but what with crewroom culture and 200 non-tipped 'Senior Service' for ten bob I soon became a smoker. Luckily I was never a heavy smoker, 5/10 a day at the most and I gave up, after several attempts, over 25 year ago. For most of my 20 years service, though, duty free cigs were available to me.

I always wondered why some guys I work with smoked, then a friend explained it to me....

.... "You get such a good deal on cigarettes down in the Falklands that if you don't smoke you are financially missing out! Think of all the value for money you get if you smoke in the Falklands. The more you smoke the more money you have saved. Non smokers back home won't feel the benefit :} ".

[Exascot]

I would be interested to see some statistics for longevity comparing military and civilian aircrew. Say a specialist aircrew pilot who retires at 55 and a civilian pilot who retires at 55. Like many on this forum I have flown in the military and with the airlines. I think that we will find a huge difference in life expectancy with the civilian pilot croaking way before his 'sell by date'.

[Pontius Navigator]

2040, but if Mrs PN gets her way, and I drop my weight so my BMI drops by to normal then it is 2029????????

It seems to settle around 8-12 years less if I keep clicking and vary the BMI.

At least one bit of good news, I am not a sadistic b^stard or I would have died 30 years ago.

[OutlawPete]

My other half works in civilian health care and has often remarked about the higher standard of heath and general fitness seen in ex services even many years after demob. One wonders how these statistics will look a few years from now. Smoking is no longer the norm, we don't drink nearly as much (forces that is, civvys seem to be doing more - booze Britain! ). Added to that the fact that there are more sport-billys than ever before. On reflection it's easy to see why there are such surprising results in Al R's original post.

[Al R]

PN,

There's hope yet! :ok:

BBC News - Over-90s 'defying mental decline' (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-23252763)

[Rossian]

.....that it's a generalisation, but those of us who were in the services were specifically drawn from an "abnormally" healthy section of the populace. Aircrew maybe even more so.

In contrast, during WW1 a very large proportion of volunteers and conscripts were deemed unfit for military service. From my estimable uncle's memoirs of basic traing in 1916 more than 30% were rejected even by the lowish standards of the time. Infectious diseases, rickets,flat feet and a multitude of other ailments were rife in the population at large.

We woz lucky innit?

The Ancient Mariner

[Basil]

during WW1 a very large proportion of volunteers and conscripts were deemed unfit for military service
A point I've made before, pointing out that our top guys were killed in WW1 and we are the progeny of the remainder.
It's a worry! :}

[Basil]

Anyhoo, having last flown for money when I was about 63, I hit 71 this year and, perhaps I should get a job - although, at the moment, I'm up at the end of a Froggie valley at 2500' being run ragged by four grandkids and v sporty DiL who doesn't take prisoners! ;)

[gr4techie]

Quote:
during WW1 a very large proportion of volunteers and conscripts were deemed unfit for military service
A point I've made before, pointing out that our top guys were killed in WW1 and we are the progeny of the remainder.
It's a worry!

Another mate of mine had this theory why Eastern Europe has so many stunningly beautiful women... " All the countries that were occupied by ze Germans in WW2 have stunningly beautiful women, as these women were worth keeping by ze Germans for some wink wink, all the fugly hippo-croco-gorilla-pigs got shot ".

I don't know if there's any truth in this?

[Tiger_mate]

Eastern Europe has so many stunningly beautiful women".

This is true, but the same women appear to go to bed one night at about 30 years of age and wake up as hippogrillamoosepigs the next morning.

[AED24]

I retired at age 55 about 10 months ago (WO), should I delay the world cruise? There are lies damn lies etc... Every day is a bonus!