Bookings over 12 months in advance

[davidjohnson6]

Those who have been following Flybe over the last few months will have noticed that the airline has begun selling tickets more than 12 months in advance. I'm aware that Monarch and Jet2 also follow this approach from time to time.

I understand that this
a) Persuades customers to pay for their passage very long in advance, thus boosting the company's working capital
b) Pinches some customers from other competing airlines who release seats at a later date
c) Allows customers to plan their travel earlier and thus have more chance of winning their custom when they come to making a booking
d) Gives information further in advance as to customer demand for routes and also specific flights.

However, I'm sceptical as to how many people really do book more than about 9 months in advance except for the most predictable seasonal spikes (e.g. 20-24 Dec). Furthermore, while EU261 requires an airline give only 2 weeks notice, airlines are presumably reluctant to annoy a load of customers by cancelling a flight even if it's 3+ months in advance - customers get rather p*ssed off. Additionally, it commits fleet planning *very* long in advance leaving much less opportunity to take advantage of any changes in the competitive landscape. The fact that hotel booking systems are rarely open more than 12 months ahead is another factor I'm thinking about.

I've come to the conclusion that selling tickets for scheduled flights (charters are a different setup) more than 12 months in advance (arbitrary, I know) is a sign of an airline that's in trouble and badly needs an infusion of cash but is likely to end up finding that it's sacrificed operational freedom for minimal actual extra cash. It also seems to be a signal from weaker airlines to stronger competitors to flag up that they are in trouble - much the same way as a lion hiding in the grass would perceive a baby antelope bleating for its absent mother

Is such a conclusion correct ? Do customers really book over 9 months in advance in significant numbers ? (Please don't quote MOL saying there is no visibility beyond 3 months - too much of what he says publicly is garbage). From an operational point of view, how constraining is it to commit to flights 18 months in advance ? Do tactical opportunities come up sufficiently often that greater operational freedom / less advance planning would provide significantly more profitable opportunities ?

I've made my own guess on this - I'm very interested in hearing from those who know, not just those who are guessing like me.

[mathers_wales_uk]

I'm sure I have read recently that Flybe has an agreement/deal with Thomas Cook. Thomas Cook of course sell their seats 12 months in advance.

Not all of Flybe's seats are for sale 12 months in advance. Take Flybe at Cardiff for instance flights are not on sale beyond February.

[Jamie2k9]

b) Pinches some customers from other competing airlines who release seats at a later date
Release seats early will have a very minimal affect on taken customers from other airlines. Customers will only change to another carrier is their is a substantial difference in prices or service offered and in the cases or Monarch and Jet 2 there isn't much difference.

c) Allows customers to plan their travel earlier and thus have more chance of winning their custom when they come to making a booking
Don't buy this as many can't make plans for 12 months as most won't know what there financial position will be.

d) Gives information further in advance as to customer demand for routes and also specific flights.
Can't see any information on demand in advance as numbers booking wouldn't be high enough to warrant adjustments in capacity until at most 6 months before when the majority of people book.

In some cases early releases may allow airlines to increase yield from early bird bookers before prices drop when competition release seats, however this doesn't happen when two carriers who compete on many routes and release around the same time.

[WHBM]

a) Persuades customers to pay for their passage very long in advance, thus boosting the company's working capital
Not so. Just about all bookings are made now by credit card, and the credit card companies are legally liable to refund your money if you don't get the service, for example the airline goes out of business. The way they have handled this is that (simplistically, for the overall approach is quite complex) they hold the money until the flight has happened, only releasing the funds to the airline much later.

There is a whole raft of financial intermediaries who have inevitably sprung up to take advantage of all these funds sloshing about in the finance industry, called "Credit Card Processors". The demise of Flyglobespan was deeply associated with one of these.

[Capetonian]

I looked on their website to see if I could find a way of booking 365+ days ahead (just for curiosity as Flybe is not an airline I would use if there were a choice) and I couldn't find how to do so.

I was looking for the 'small print' pertaining to this as I suspect from my knowledge of GDS/CRS systems that they are not 'booking' but simply 'registering' the request until the date comes within the booking range of their system. Most GDS systems have a booking range or horizon of 361 days, but many airline inventory systems are less, and if I remember correctly, Flybe is 331 days.

On that basis, I would expect the system to place the request on a queue until it drops into the range, and then notify the passenger, at which point the CC would be charged.

I find it ironic that Flybe would do this as they change their schedules so often and at such short notice that I would not have any confidence in booking a month ahead with them, let alone a year.

[TartinTon]

Most of the companies selling tickets beyond 12 months seem to be the ones with tour operators attached or buying large allocations. Seeing as they tend to publish first brochures at least a year in advance this make perfect sense to me.

[hampshireandy]

I wouldnt book a flybe flight 12 days in advance at the present time!