Warning on new aircraft carriers.

[Stuffy]

The Major Projects Authority (MPA) has given 32 projects a red or amber/red rating, meaning they are deemed unachievable or in doubt.

Red projects include two £7bn aircraft carriers dogged by delays.

The Cabinet Office welcomed the report and said it would lead to improvements.
The MPA was established in 2010 in a bid to turn around the civil service's "lamentable record" of delivering large schemes.
Its report warns that billions of pounds of public money could be at risk because of delays and inefficiencies in delivering key projects.

BBC News - Warnings over flagship projects (http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22664672)

[BEagle]

Oh dear, that'll cause Sharkey to cough up his rum.....:\

[Stuffy]

I was told by a staff member in a military museum. The first carrier has endless issues about the engines. The second is a massive bath-tub containing rain water. That was this March.:ooh:

It is my expectation, that the current 'Depression'(yes that is the correct term, not recession). Will reach it's perigee, or lowest point, sometime in 2014.

In conclusion, work will be stopped on the two carriers at this time.
As it was on the liners Queen Mary and Queen Elizabeth, during 1934.

[sisemen]

The first carrier had endless issues about the engines. The second was a massive bath-tub containing rain water.

It's good to see the Senior Service keeping up with tradition.

[Bigpants]

OK don't blame posters for enjoying the news but no one wins here not even the arseholes at BAE.

The ships will get built, probably quite badly, the MOD will barely be able to afford the aircraft, the crews will get little flying and the ships will be limited to a couple of exercises a year, they might even get as far as Florida but more likely will spend most of their service lives in port.

BAE will establish themselves worldwide as the defence contractor of last resort, orders will dry up and jobs lost.

[TorqueOfTheDevil]

not even the arseholes at BAE.


Last time I looked BAE were just one of two prime contractors on this project (WTF??). Is this still the case, or are BAE somehow more to blame than the Thales lot?

[Agaricus bisporus]

The problems are probably far more to do with the habitual incompetence in mis-specifying the specs and repeated changing of specs by the MoD than anything wrong with BAE's engineering. Its the usual confusion arising from order, counter-order, disorder.

[steamy999]

Two are being built but one will be immediately mothballed. The Gov wanted to cancel the contract two years ago, but by cancelling would have cost more than the anticipated total spend!

[Milo Minderbinder]

considering the probability of the aircraft arriving, are you sure its just one that will be mothballed?

[t43562]

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/203323/20130524_mod_gmpp_data.ods

Since I'm not a Windows or MS Excel user I've posted the open-office format link. :-) This is the parent page:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/government-major-projects-portfolio-data-for-mod-2013

Here is the extract about the carriers:


Project name: QEC Aircraft Carriers
Department: MOD
MPA RAG rating
(A Delivery Confidence Assessment of the project at a fixed point in time, using a five-point scale, Red – Amber/Red – Amber – Amber/Green – Green; definitions in the MPA Annual Report):
Red
Description / aims:
The programme will deliver two Queen Elizabeth Class Aircraft carriers, configured to operate Short Take-off and Vertical Landing (STOVL) aircraft. The carriers will form an integral part of the UK's Carrier Strike capability.
Departmental narrative, actions on Delivery Confidence Assessment :
Assembly of HMS Queen Elizabeth at Rosyth is progressing well with over 38,000 tonnes of ship in the dock at Rosyth. The ship will be largely structurally complete by the end of this year and she will be “floated-out” next year. Construction of HMS Prince of Wales is also well underway, with all the lower block units in build and centre blocks 03 and 04. The RAG assessment is largely owing to ongoing re-baselining encompassing a wide range of factors (e.g. build strategy, implications of STOVL reversion decision) that need to be considered. Once this work has completed, the Department will seek re-approval of the programme in 2013.
Project - start date 12/01/1998
Project - end date 12/01/2018
Departmental narrative on schedule, including any deviation from planned schedule :
Project is currently being re-baselined and as a result we will be updating our previously agreed dates once this work has concluded. We expect Sea Trials for the first ship to begin in 2017, followed by Flying Trials with the Lightning II aircraft in 2018 and achievement of Initial Operating Capability in 2020. Dates will be confirmed as part of project re-approval in 2013.
2012/13 Budget (£million) 657.723 2012/13 Forecast (£million)
658.500
Total budgeted whole life costs (£million)
(including non-government costs)
Departmental narrative on budget/forecast variance for 2012/13
(if variance is more than 5%)
Not required as variance is with +/- 5%.
Departmental narrative on budgeted whole life costs

[FODPlod]

Thank you t43562. That puts a rather different perspective on the alarmist headlines.

[eaglemmoomin]

Seriously Stuffy lighten up mate!

Can you point me to the bit in the report saying the Carriers are Lemons. I don't really think some bloke in a military museum is going to know stuff all about the carrier build.

I imagine QE probably has quite a bit of water in it too. The blocks are stored outside when delivered up at Roysth. I suggest rather than relying on the third hand heresay you peruse this

Flickr: QEClassCarriers' Photostream (http://www.flickr.com/photos/qeclasscarriers/)

How can the 'engines' be problematical when they haven't finished building them yet? The generators are Rolls Royce MT30's and they've only just installed the first one. The Diesels are Wärtsilä 38 diesels. The US LCS first of class has had problems and that has MT30 in but a) it's a totally different design b) it's a 40 knot speedster c) the Americans don't really use electric drive propulsion so FOC and 'new' technology to them and I'm not suprised they are having problems. We do use electric drive propulsion and well basically are not the Yanks.


I imagine that the transmission is the problem not the generators themselves which are based on the engines in the 777, or those dropping out of the sky regularly?

I think it's fairly clear that quite a 'bit' of water ingress is to be expected.


I mean the carrier build was delayed, then changed from STOVL to Cats and Traps and then back again all of that mucks about with the schedule and costs lots of money. The one year 'delay' cost 1 billion quid.

I can't imagine any report would be too favourable to the political and civil service led f'up'. I suggest you look up the evidence given to the Public Accounts Committee by Jon Thompson, Permanent Secretary, Bernard Gray, Chief of Defence Materiel and Air Marshal Stephen Hillier, Deputy Chief of Defence Staff, Military Capability, Ministry of Defence. Regarding the 2010 decision to get a flavour of what that report is talking about.

None of this is suprise. The report is basically re-repeating a bunch of stuff that everyone has known about since the moronic decision to fart about with an in build program that was taken in 2010. I really don't know why we now have to have four different reports/comittees basically all re-repeating information thats been known for the last three years.

It's nothing to worry about overly much the MOD structure has already been completely altered and DES is/will change a lot this is all out of the back end of the Gray Report which was published in 2009! We will only now how successful that has been at the end of the 10 year equipment plan (which includes the carriers).

[67Wing]

Photostream link is a very useful source of authoritative info such as ...

HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/qeclasscarriers/8006100459/)

[Agaricus bisporus]

I really don't know why we now have to have four different reports/comittees basically all re-repeating information thats been known for the last three years.


Because it enables hundreds, perhaps thousands of parasitic civil servants to justify their worthless existences and claim their gigantic index linked final salary pensions that WE are all paying for.

[Kitbag]

Not CS myself, but saying

Because it enables hundreds, perhaps thousands of parasitic civil servants to justify their worthless existences and claim their gigantic index linked final salary pensions that WE are all paying for. is just plain stupid, head up your ar$e stuff.

'They' are also 'we'; their job is to try and enact government policy to the best of their ability, all whilst government policy bends in the wind to the 'will of the people' or their close advisors anyway.
I believe the boats should have followed catapult launch and arrested landing if only to open up interoperability ad accommodate all the other elements that make up a balanced force. The military adisors who set the specification have gone down a rabbit hole, tried to turn round only to find the exit blocked by a fall of detritus. Maybe it is embarrassing for the long trousered brigade to hear 'I told you so' time and again.

[Stuffy]

67Wing,
I like the comments.

It is amazing what can be done with photoshop.

Civil Servants also live in a virtual world.

[Backwards PLT]

We'll definitely get one and I am fairly confident that we will get 2 carriers - which will allow us to have one permanently at sea.

This will give us a pretty impressive piece of kit that can do a lot of things pretty well. It won't be a Nimitz-like strike carrier but it will be far more than Illustrious/Ark/Invincible ever were. Anything wildly divergent from this, such as all carriers cancelled, JSF cancelled, 2 carriers with 24 jets on each simultaneously is wild fantasy land, imho.

The QEC will be extremely impressive and useful, but for me the important question is will they be better than 10 FFs or 20 small FFs/corvettes? Still not sure.

NB: I have nothing to do with either the carrier or JSF programmes so this is all personal opinion from open source - which hopefully everything on PPRuNe is!

[FODPlod]

This one wasn't photo-shopped:

http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/1762/the3carriers.jpg

[Backwards PLT]

Aren't they through-deck cruisers? ;)

[Stuffy]

Backwards PLT,

Indeed they might be. Useful just the same, and affordable.

I suggest the BBC is being used by someone to make a point.

I doubt the articles are inaccurate.

BBC News - Carrier fighter jet U-turn cost £74m, says audit office (http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22472912)

[dervish]

Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, said: "It is good that the MoD acted promptly once it became clear that pursuing the option to buy the carrier variant aircraft would cost a lot more money and add another three years to the whole programme.

"But to achieve value for money in this project, the department will have to manage significant technical and affordability risks and be consistent in sticking to the present plan."


Can someone remind me of Mr Morse's previous job?

[Wander00]

From Web Page on Public Sector Efficiency Expo

Amyas Morse was appointed Comptroller & Auditor General on 1 June 2009.
Amyas was born in Edinburgh, and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland. He led the Coopers & Lybrand practice in Scotland, before moving to London to manage the London City Office, and subsequently becoming the Executive Partner of the Coopers & Lybrand UK firm. When PricewaterhouseCoopers was formed, he took on global responsibilities, and served as Global Leader of the Assurance Practice (audit and related services), and then as Global Managing Partner (Operations).
Amyas joined the Ministry of Defence in July 2006 as the Defence Commercial Director. During his time as Commercial Director he was responsible for shaping the Department’s relationship with industry, and he played a key role in the agreement of strategic commercial arrangements. More widely across government, he served as a member of the Major Projects Review Group, the Public Sector Board of CIPS, and on an NHS Project Board.

[Whitewhale83]

Sorry to register just for this but I finally have had enough of the anti-carrier nonsense being posted here-

I was told by a staff member in a military museum. The first carrier has endless issues about the engines. The second is a massive bath-tub containing rain water. That was this March.http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/icon25.gif

This is utterly amazing, it is truly astonishing that anything like this was said, in march the QE had only been fitted with the first of its MT30 turbines which hadn't even come out of its packaging, yet alone been tested as there would be nothing to test it with as none of the electric motors had been setup (installed only). The engines are set to be tested for the first time later this year once both of the MT30's are in and unwrapped and the ship has been fitted with braked propellers. As for the second being full of rain water that is considerably impressive as it only exists at the moment as bits inside warehouses around the country-

When you see it... forward island under construction at Portsmouth - and feathered friend! | Flickr - Photo Sharing! (http://www.flickr.com/photos/qeclasscarriers/8147229036/)

Those bits of grey scattered around... that's the second carrier.

All of the delays and cost increases in the project so far have come from one source, the government, first in delaying the main gate schedule, then changing the required specifications required at least 3 times. Production should have started around 4 years earlier then it ended up solely due to the government at the time deliberately slowing the project down to save money, an act that eventually cost us around £1 billion more.

Personally I think they should cancel the typhoon, a guy at the aircraft museum told me that the merlin engines were giving them no end of trouble and that the cockpit glass was actually made out of cheese and the pilots couldn't see out!

eaglemmoomin- The trouble the yanks are having with the LCS (or at least the engines the whole project is a running joke) is the shape of the exhaust funnels lets sea water into the turbine itself, on its own the MT30 is by all accounts a insanely reliably and efficient unit. After all despite each of the CVF's weighing as much as all three Invincibles combined each does better mileage.

[tucumseh]

The trickle down effect in procurement - Defence Management (http://www.defencemanagement.com/feature_story.asp?id=11723)

[Stuffy]

Oh no ! A Beancounter !
What sort of name is Amyas Morse anyway?
Some sort of code?

Where are Kelly Johnson and Bill Lear when you need them?

They ate beancounters for breakfast.


tucumseh, interesting name that.

[Wander00]

At least it is not "Endeavour"......................

[Kitbag]

What sort of name is Amyas Morse anyway?
Some sort of code?

Resorting to taking the mick out of given names? Pathetic, Get some real logical, reasoned argument 'Stuffy' (can't believe you chose that name!)

[Courtney Mil]

It wasn't his given name he was making a pun out of.

Wander00, I get it.

[Kitbag]

Apposite K Johnson should come up, he had some rules apparently about the primacy of the contractor:
[QUOTE]The Skunk Works manager must be delegated practically complete control of his program in all aspects. He should report to a division president or higher.
Strong but small project offices must be provided both by the military and industry.
The number of people having any connection with the project must be restricted in an almost vicious manner. Use a small number of good people (10% to 25% compared to the so-called normal systems).
A very simple drawing and drawing release system with great flexibility for making changes must be provided.
There must be a minimum number of reports required, but important work must be recorded thoroughly.
There must be a monthly cost review covering not only what has been spent and committed but also projected costs to the conclusion of the program. Don't have the books 90 days late, and don't surprise the customer with sudden overruns.
The contractor must be delegated and must assume more than normal responsibility to get good vendor bids for subcontract on the project. Commercial bid procedures are very often better than military ones.
The inspection system as currently used by the Skunk Works, which has been approved by both the Air Force and Navy, meets the intent of existing military requirements and should be used on new projects. Push more basic inspection responsibility back to subcontractors and vendors. Don't duplicate so much inspection.
The contractor must be delegated the authority to test his final product in flight. He can and must test it in the initial stages. If he doesn't, he rapidly loses his competency to design other vehicles.
The specifications applying to the hardware must be agreed to well in advance of contracting. The Skunk Works practice of having a specification section stating clearly which important military specification items will not knowingly be complied with and reasons therefore is highly recommended.
Funding a program must be timely so that the contractor doesn't have to keep running to the bank to support government projects.
There must be mutual trust between the military project organization and the contractor with very close cooperation and liaison on a day-to-day basis. This cuts down misunderstanding and correspondence to an absolute minimum.
Access by outsiders to the project and its personnel must be strictly controlled by appropriate security measures.
Because only a few people will be used in engineering and most other areas, ways must be provided to reward good performance by pay not based on the number of personnel supervised.
Note that Kelly had a 15th rule that he passed on by word of mouth. According to the book "Skunk Works" the 15th rule is: "Starve before doing business with the damned Navy. They don't know what the hell they want and will drive you up a wall before they break either your heart or a more exposed part of your anatomy."[QUOTE]

In other words, tell your contractor what you want then keep your nose out until they deliver. My bolds for emphasis

[Stuffy]

He probably moved on from his previous job as an Inspector?

Well, I have knowledge of 5 languages.' Amyas', I do not recognise.

All is indeed lost, when a sense of humour is not there.

You cannot believe I chose the nickname of my hero?

The pseudonym 'Kitbag' would soon be turned into a less complimentary one in any British military mess hall. The ridicule would increase if you took offence, soon the label REMF would be attached. I understand the Australians would be even more cruel.

Clarence 'Kelly' Johnson did not have much time for accountants and business courses.Ref: Ben Rich's book.

[hoodie]

Well, I have knowledge of 5 languages.' Amyas', I do not recognise.

Amyas is a surname and male forename thought to be derived either from the Latin verb amare or the French city of Amiens. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyas)

[Kitbag]

I guess humour needs a common frame of reference?

[Stuffy]

Amare - to love.

Or split; 'A mare' - to the sea.

Private Eye magazine has already spun the name to 'Morse Goaded'.
Private Eye In The Back: Morse goaded (http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.php?section_link=in_the_back&issue=1338)

Another reference: Elliot Gould's confrontation with Telly Savalas in the film Capricorn One.

Sorry chaps, I don't do 'PC'.

[SpazSinbad]

Curious about RAG rating found info here:

Project Assessment Review: MPA Guidance for Departments | Version 1.0 – March 2012

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/61378/MPA_20PAR_20guidance_20for_20Departments.pdf (0.4Mb)

Click thumbnail pic for big pic: http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l261/SpazSinbad/NewerAlbum/th_RAGDefinitionsofDeliveryConfidenceUKGuvmnt.gif (http://s98.photobucket.com/user/SpazSinbad/media/NewerAlbum/RAGDefinitionsofDeliveryConfidenceUKGuvmnt.gif.html)

[tucumseh]

Kitbag, that is excellent stuff and all true, but with MoD falls at the first hurdle...

Strong but small project offices must be provided both by the military and industry. If by some chance an MoD project office is strong, senior management will almost certainly not tolerate such an attitude and will definitely not support you.


From my own perspective, matters changed in 1996, following the appointment of Sir Robert Walmsley as Chief of Defence Procurement. His first action of note was to announce he was cutting 500 engineer posts at AbbeyWood, e-mailing everyone on site that he saw no need for engineers working on engineering projects or programmes. (Thanks Bob, we’d all just been posted from London. You could have screwed us before upping sticks).


A major prime contractor on an aircraft programme was a thoroughly unscrupulous outfit who enjoyed the personal patronage of CDP. Their boss kept a little black book of the strengths and weaknesses of the MoD team. He soon approached a non-engineer saying “Could you just confirm we have a test and declare status?” The MoD guy hadn’t a clue what this meant; the company knew he’d never admit this and seek advice. He said “Of course”. A couple of years later and “aircraft installation, systems integration and demonstration of installed performance” consisted of the prime pitching up at Westland and dumping a truck load of LRUs on the hangar floor. “We tested them on the bench and we declare we can’t tell if some work properly as they haven’t been integrated or flown”. They were paid in full, approved by CDP and the 2 Star (Nimrod MRA4, Chinook HC Mk3 etc, which I mention just to illustrate the quality of decision making here), and a second payment approved for Westland to meet the Prime’s original obligation.

By the way, this attitude of “it works on the bench, so it’ll work on the aircraft” was a significant factor in the loss of Tornado ZG710, which the same 2 Star (DGAS2) was personally warned of 4 years before the accident.

[t43562]

I have no experience of the 'world' you worked in but let me assure you it sounds very very familiar to mine and it's the reason that this country has very little in the way of large software companies. Whatever competence there is at the technical end, it's completely let down at the second management level and up.

There is somehow no way for awful people to be weeded out and it's something to do with the way that idiots express no doubt about anything (especially any stupid plan of their superiors) and other people admire certainty.

It's the same in other places too e.g. big Finnish phone companies that have paid the price now very publicly. In the States, I think there have been so many big companies, so many startups etc that eventually some people have learned and become ok. Some deserving people are in the positions they should be and have hired other good people.

I don't know how a government is supposed to achieve the same effect though.

[Stuffy]

tucumseh and t43562,

You have certainly hit the nail on the head for the reason for this thread.

A line in a BBC report has expanded into the reasons for getting so many things wrong.

I hope someone from the government/MPA reads your posts and 'tries' to make some changes?

Is this why the Nimrod had to be cancelled ?

RT had a news item on the Astute class of submarine last week.
A number of problems on that programme were highlighted.

Guess who pays for the mistakes?

[oldgrubber]

Whitewhale,
As a new poster you might not know that they never let the truth get in the way of a good "dit" on this forum. You and I both know that the only new carrier that has had problems with it's "engines" is the new Indian carrier, which has had to have it's boilers re-bricked after sea trials. The Indians also have a floating hull which is the first step in their indigenous carrier build which by virtue of the fact that it is floating outside, gets rainwater in it.
Wrong carriers, wrong country, but hey it wouldn't have made a good dit!

Cheers now

[Dysonsphere]

Aren't they through-deck cruisers?

Indeed and I remember when Invincible turned up at Portsmouth for commisioning wearing a R number much laughter was had at the expense of the Labour goverment.

[tucumseh]

Stuffy

I hope someone from the government/MPA reads your posts and 'tries' to make some changes?

Demonstrably, MoD does read pprune, but in the main to establish where their cover up efforts should be directed! We sometimes give away too much here for our own good. "GOCO" is the current high profile example, where the basic idea has been copied but no-one in MoD actually understands most of it is mandated policy and used to be a core competence before promotion into MoD(PE). When this was pointed out here, MoD swiftly denied what Bernard Gray had said in radio interviews (despite the recordings being sent to Ministers by an MP!)



Is this why the Nimrod had to be cancelled ?

MRA4 was ultimately cancelled because no-one would sign the airworthiness certification. A former Minister finally conceded this in February this year. All the angst here and in the media about "We've spend £5Bn, why not just use them" was irrelevant. That was sunk costs and no longer part of the equation. I rarely speculate here, but it may be that they were hastily scrapped before anyone "did a Bagnall" and in a fit of madness made a false declaration that they complied with the regulations.

To understand MoD's motives, you must first ask "Who benefits?" (See my above post). If nothing else, it is entertaining watching MoD's antics. :E

[steamchicken]

A former Minister finally conceded this in February this year

I take it there's a link to this?

[dragartist]

I must be a sado - spend so many hours these days on the parliament web site! Time I found xhamster!!

Just be careful what you say to MPs over dinner!

there are yards of column inches on here for your delectation.

Does anyone know what happened to the Dr who was the MoD SME on ESM? she gave a good account of herself before the Committee. I can imagine her having been asked to retire

7 Feb 2013 : Column 184WH
Sir Gerald Howarth: I will not, if the hon. Gentleman will forgive me, because I feel passionately about the issue, and I want to get my comments on the record and hear what my right hon. Friend and former esteemed ministerial colleague has to say.
My right hon. Friend the Member for North East Hampshire is right: the aircraft, which was already nine years late, had not been accepted into service by the Royal Air Force. I was told, for example, that it was porpoising through the air, and that BAE was going to deal with that by installing software to make the elevator go up and down. Forgive me, but that is metal against metal. I said to the then Chief of the Air Staff, Sir Glenn Torpy, “It’s going to wear out.” He said, “You don’t need to worry, Gerald,” but I do worry, and I did at the time. I was also told, although I do not know whether it is true, that at a certain high angle of attack, the air flow into the engine intakes was disrupted, which would lead the engine to stall. There were technical problems that were not overcome.

[Heathrow Harry]

My God!

the technical expertise of our rulers never ceases to impress....

although he didn't use the word "thingy"

[tucumseh]

Maybe Torpy said, “You don’t need to worry, Gerald, they'll be scrapped before they wear out”.

[dervish]

Heathrow Harry

When bemoaning the technical expertise of our rulers, I assume you meant Torpy, not the pilot?

Remind me who Torpy went to work for after leaving the RAF. Not the best person for Howarth to seek advice from.