C210 missing south of Darwin [Archive]

lurker999

1st Apr 2013, 13:54

Nine News Darwin have the following

NT Police are assisting Australian Search and Rescue, after concerns an aircraft failed to reach its destination this evening. It's believed the Cessna 210, carrying four people, left Bullo River and was heading for a location south of Darwin, but failed to arrive... If anyone heard either a low flying light aircraft, or an aircraft in trouble between Port Keats and Anson Bay, they're asked to contact the Police Assistance Line on 131 444...

Desert Flower

1st Apr 2013, 21:16

Hope it's not the owners of Bullo!

DF.

Kulwin Park

1st Apr 2013, 21:35

Reported that there were x2 210's flying north, but one lost radio contact over halfway. The other 210 landed and raised the alarm after the other didn't turn up.
Hope it all turns out good, and hopefully just an electrical failure or something?

VH-XXX

1st Apr 2013, 22:22

The news are reporting bad weather in the area. Let's hope for the best.

"The weather in the area is not good so we haven't been able to get a helicopter in," she said last night.

Fears for four as aircraft reported missing | News | NT News | Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia | ntnews.com.au (http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2013/04/02/319117_ntnews.html)

4 POB. Perhaps one of their tourist expeditions.

The 500,000 acre privately owned Bullo River Station, made famous by top-selling author Sara Henderson (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sara_Henderson), is a working cattle station that offers tourism experiences.

CoodaShooda

1st Apr 2013, 22:39

Or possibly the guys from EmmKayTee returning from an Easter camping trip.

The Green Goblin

1st Apr 2013, 22:59

From what I understand the monsoon is in Darwin right now and it hasn't stopped raining for at least four days.

Not a good time for VFR S/E operations, especially private ops.

mickjoebill

2nd Apr 2013, 00:12

As of 1100 am AEST still nothing found, weather is better than yesterday for the search, using seven planes and a three helicopters.

ABC report
"It was last heard from about 3:00pm near Cape Ford, north of the Indigenous community of Wadeye, about 250 kilometres south-west of Darwin.

The pilot had reported to another pilot in the area that he was experiencing some rough weather.

He was advised to alter course to avoid the weather, but it is not clear whether he did."

Do such flights have a GPS breadcrumb trail?

Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/plane-carrying-four-missing-in-northern-territory/story-e6frg6nf-1226610655799)

Plane carrying 4 people missing in NT - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-02/plane-missing-in-nt/4604190)

Mickjoebill

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 00:31

It builds up pretty much over land there during the day. By day, go over water, by night, over land. That was my NT rule of thumb.

My intuition tells me he has gone left of track and over water. Probably an inflight breakup which the 210 is renowned for. Id say that is where the wreckage will be located.

If its anything like the airvan off Elcho a few years back, not much will be found. Maybe a tyre or a seat cushion.

RIP

TunaBum

2nd Apr 2013, 00:44

Wow bit negative there GG.

Glad I don't have a loved one on board...........

TB :rolleyes:

outnabout

2nd Apr 2013, 01:00

Latest on the ABC website

The ABC understands the four people on board a small plane that is missing in the Northern Territory are a electrical contractor and his family.

Hope they are found safe, soon.

gileraguy

2nd Apr 2013, 01:01

Thunderstorms are known for breaking upper than 210's.

Can anyone confirm the MKT guys are OK?

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 01:06

I'm just a realist.

I know that country well and it gets pretty hairy in a turboprop with a basic weather radar.

I also know with 7 aircraft searching and an ELT onboard they would have been found if okay. Or at the very least located pending rescue.

The 210 is a great workhorse but not the frame to be mucking around in CBs and TS. If you don't get that speed under control and the gear out she'll do the death slap pretty quickly.

ForkTailedDrKiller

2nd Apr 2013, 01:20

Probably an inflight breakup which the 210 is renowned for.

Do you have any stats to back up that statement GG?

I can only think of one (maybe two) inflight breakup of a C210 in Oz (Cloncurry), but I can also recall an inflight breakup of a Beech 200 yet the King Air doesn't have the same reputation as the C210.

CBs and/or loss of control will break them all up eventually!

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 01:25

GG
Define death slap with reference to C210s .

ozbiggles

2nd Apr 2013, 01:33

Hitting new heights today...

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 01:34

Define death slap with reference to C210s .

Trying to start a pissing contest are we?

When the wing spar lets go the wings slap against the sides of the fuselage as opposed to the popular belief they clap overhead. I'm sure you knew that which is why you were asking.

There was a recent inflight breakup VH-WBZ. The ATSB report is available online.

As for the C210 reputation, why do you think it has such low Va and high cruise speed? It's the first thing you are briefed on when you fly it!

that guy

2nd Apr 2013, 01:40

......back on topic... This says a lot, looks like they're looking off the coast

http://flightaware.com/live/flight/RSCU471

BleedingAir

2nd Apr 2013, 01:53

We're reaching incredible new levels of assumption and speculation in this thread. I'm not sure why they're even bothering to continue the search... they should have checked here first and realised it was a waste of time.

Desert Flower

2nd Apr 2013, 02:23

Looks like the Dornier is headed back to Darwin, probably for some more motion lotion.

DF.

ChrisJ800

2nd Apr 2013, 02:26

The only wing spar break up I witnessed was to a glider and the wing folded upwards.

VH-XXX

2nd Apr 2013, 02:35

......back on topic... This says a lot, looks like they're looking off the coast

They must have a definitive radar paint or ELT to be looking at that specific location. That doesn't look overly promising.

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 02:38

GG
You are correct in that the wings break at the aileron inboard end in the downward mode. It occurs beyond vne due to the large washout inC210 wings. I've never heard of one breaking up where there wasn't some sort of control loss leading to an excursion outside the envelope.:= A C210 spar is just as strong as any other type in it's class and is actually stronger than the early strutted models. The low Va is a sensible precaution to give a large margin before vne in rough conditions.

gassed budgie

2nd Apr 2013, 02:47

When the wing spar lets go the wings slap against the sides of the fuselage as opposed to the popular belief they clap overhead. I'm sure you knew that which is why you were asking.

There was a recent inflight breakup VH-WBZ. The ATSB report is available online.

As for the C210 reputation, why do you think it has such low Va and high cruise speed? It's the first thing you are briefed on when you fly it!

Wrong, wrong and wrong! This sort of stuff gets trotted out there and is given an airing every now and then. The fact of the matter is that the carry through structure is stronger than the struts bolted to the 206. I've been flying 210's for 30 years and have never been briefed by anyone on the wings going AWOL and I certainly havn't mentioned that to anyone whilst checking them out on the 210. Yes, a discussion on Va and the facts pertaining to that,but that's it.
Never been concerned about the wings coming off in an A36, PA32, SR22, likewise the 210.
The inflight breakup rate for the 210 as a percentage of the hours flown for the fleet isn't all that much different from the aircraft mentioned above.

TunaBum

2nd Apr 2013, 02:53

VH-EFB :sad:

VH-XXX

2nd Apr 2013, 02:57

A C210 spar is just as strong as any other type in it's class and is actually stronger than the early strutted models.

As a matter of interest, does that mean a lot given that it is strutless? I mean, the spar might be stronger, but without struts does that change the equation in comparison to the 206 for example?

ForkTailedDrKiller

2nd Apr 2013, 02:58

GG - I was not having a go at you, just curious as to the basis of your broad statement.

I had forgotten about MBZ, but there were a range of other factors associated with that accident, ie weather.

I have a recollection of a survey C210 suffering a suspected inflight breakup, and there was a C201 on descent into Cloncurry some 30+ years ago.

Given the hundreds of thousands of hours flown by 210's in Oz over the last 40 years or so, three inflight breakups doesn't seem to warrant the label that you put on the aircraft.

And yes, I have a bunch of 210 hrs and fly a dreaded V-tail Bonanza!

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 03:39

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 04:13

XXX
When the strutless 210s were first introduced there were a few cases of wing failure and their strength was compared unfavourably with the earlier strutted models. Testing showed they were actually stronger but because they are so aerodynamically clean mishandling took them past vne much quicker than occurred doing the same thing to one with struts. Education was the answer.

That is it in a nutshell.

It's a high performance aeroplane that is very slippery and mishandled easily in the wrong hands. VNE excursions in strong down draughts are typical if mishandled. Hence getting the gear out and turning it into a 206 when in trouble.

You can argue all day about the strength of the 210 spar compared to other types, but other types won't overspeed as quickly as a 210. Even our lovable Bonanza. A 206 certainly won't.

As I said, there is a reason why they are probably searching off the coast. That is where the weather would have been 'better' at that time of day. Anyone with time in the NT or tropics for that matter knows this.

What upsets me about these accidents is the Pilot had his family on board, and launched into known weather in (probably) a VFR aeroplane. This is the result. Yes the commercial guys probably push it a bit with the weather this time of year, but they fly regularly and generally know their way around the area pretty well.

outnabout

2nd Apr 2013, 04:45

A dozen aircraft and several police boats are continuing to search for a plane that went missing in the Northern Territory while carrying four people.
The plane left the Bullo River Station near the Eastern Kimberley region yesterday afternoon and was due to arrive a few hours later at Emkaytee airfield, south of Darwin.
On board were a 45-year-old man, his 53-year-old wife and their two children aged 12 and 15.
The Australian Maritime Safety Authority (AMSA) says the aircraft was last heard from when the pilot sent a radio message about bad weather.
"We received reports from the overnight search that the conditions were pretty bad," spokeswoman Jo Meehan said.
"They had quite low hanging cloud and was very poor visibility which did hamper overnight searches and we understand that there were storms in the Northern Territory yesterday."
Wet and blustery conditions hampered a search overnight, but Ms Meehan says conditions were improving earlier today.
"We understand the weather has improved slightly in the area, which is allowing us conduct our morning search," she said.
"We hope that it will remain that way for this afternoon's search as well."
Search and rescue crews have been searching an-1,800 square kilometre area between Cape Ford and Point Jenny.
The search area has been widened this afternoon with up to five fixed-wing aircraft and seven helicopters involved.
"We have a paramedic helicopter on standby from Tindal air station as well should we require any sort of first aid," Ms Meehan said.
"We'll be focusing on the area where the pilot was last heard from which is in the Cape Ford region.
"We will be doing both coastal and inland searches of Anson Bay so we might be using some surface vessels as well."
Staff at Bullo River Station are also helping in the search.
Emergency services are asking anyone who heard a low-flying aircraft or an aircraft in trouble between Port Keats and Anson Bay to contact police.

:sad:

Desert Flower

2nd Apr 2013, 05:04

Dornier is airborne again, still inland at the moment but appears to be turning toward the coast.

DF.

TunaBum

2nd Apr 2013, 05:16

Plane carrying 4 people missing in NT - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-02/plane-missing-in-nt/4604190)

Includes interview with AMSA's Jo Meehan.

TB

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 05:32

Quote:
When the wing spar lets go the wings slap against the sides of the fuselage as opposed to the popular belief they clap overhead. I'm sure you knew that which is why you were asking.

There was a recent inflight breakup VH-WBZ. The ATSB report is available online.

As for the C210 reputation, why do you think it has such low Va and high cruise speed? It's the first thing you are briefed on when you fly it!
Wrong, wrong and wrong! This sort of stuff gets trotted out there and is given an airing every now and then. The fact of the matter is that the carry through structure is stronger than the struts bolted to the 206. I've been flying 210's for 30 years and have never been briefed by anyone on the wings going AWOL and I certainly havn't mentioned that to anyone whilst checking them out on the 210. Yes, a discussion on Va and the facts pertaining to that,but that's it.
Never been concerned about the wings coming off in an A36, PA32, SR22, likewise the 210.
The inflight breakup rate for the 210 as a percentage of the hours flown for the fleet isn't all that much different from the aircraft mentioned above.

Actually, right right right.

You typify the general aviation Pilot who doesn't understand the aeroplane they are flying. You probably have generic procedures and knowledge for the multiple aircraft types you generally fly, but don't have intimate knowledge of each. Yep, you might have been lucky flying the aeroplane for 30 years. One of your Pilots might not be, because you have neglected to mention what to do in the event of an airspeed excursion. Or mention what will happen rather quickly if they do. As rutan around said, 'education' is paramount.

At least guys like 'rutan around' understand it. I haven't flown a 210 for going on ten years, but It still sits firmly in my mind.

outnabout

2nd Apr 2013, 05:32

Pardon my ignorance - is EmKayTee a reporting point for entry into Darwin, or is it the GA airport for Darwin?

Just curious, that's all.

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 05:34

Emkaytee is a private general aviation aerodrome about 30 kays south.

Lot's of the weekend warrior types operate there and private VH Pilots.

It's a good strip and cheaper than parking your ship at DRW.

SpyderPig

2nd Apr 2013, 05:36

MKT is just a small airfield just south of Darwin about 30nm. Some private and RAA stuff plus a maintenance facility there.

Hope this mob get found ok, not looking great though. Wx has been pretty poor this past week up here.

Desert Flower

2nd Apr 2013, 05:47

VH-EFB

Oh shoot - I know the owner of that aircraft! :sad:

DF.

kellykelpie

2nd Apr 2013, 05:47

Is it VH-EFB? Flew my family in this to El Questro a couple of years ago (we named her Betsy). Hope it is all ok...

lurker999

2nd Apr 2013, 06:03

Found wreckage off Cape Ford

No signs of survivors

500N

2nd Apr 2013, 06:07

The search aircraft seemed to be doing circles around there.

Hope some good news is forthcoming.

Desert Flower

2nd Apr 2013, 06:39

The search aircraft seemed to be doing circles around there.

They were a lot closer to the coast this time than they were before, & even inland somewhat. Aircraft appears to be tracking back towards YPDN now. :(

DF.

Aircraft appears to be tracking back towards YPDN now.

Well I thought it was, but it just did a big loop & came back over the area it was searching before.

anomaly

2nd Apr 2013, 07:39

Search Continues for Missing Plane - Update | NTPFES (http://www.pfes.nt.gov.au/Media-Centre/Media-releases/2013/April/02/Search-Continues-for-Missing-Plane-Update.aspx)

Search Continues for Missing Plane - Update

Tuesday 02-Apr-2013 16:37

Northern Territory Police can confirm the body of a female has been located during the search for a missing light aircraft.

An air and sea search was launched last night by AMSA after reports a plane failed to reach its destination south of Darwin, after leaving Bullo River Station mid-yesterday afternoon.

On board were a 45-year-old man, his 53-year-old wife and their children aged 12 and 15.

“Late this afternoon a body was discovered washed up on a beach in the south of the search area near Cape Ford.” Said Acting Commander Mark Christopher.

“A forensics team is on its way to the site to recover the body in preparation for formal identification.”

“The search continues for the plane’s fuselage and passengers.”

“Up to eight aircraft and numerous vessels, including the NT Water Police, have been scouring the search area today and this is a tragic outcome.” Said Acting Commander Christopher.

“The search will continue tomorrow.”

lurker999

2nd Apr 2013, 07:47

body of a female found

Wan

2nd Apr 2013, 08:28

gg - i dont fly a 210, but assume its similar performance to what i do fly. assume then that Vlo is quite a bit less than cruise speed - which as you note would be exceeded in a down draft. question, do they teach you to get the gear out regardless of speed on the basis that its safer to damage the gear system than continue to get too much speed? a serious question and i dont really know what damage is done when getting the gear out above Vlo - even though i passed the cpl exam!

gileraguy

2nd Apr 2013, 08:38

EFB appears to be a Fixed Gear 210 (strutless) 1967 model.

lurker999

2nd Apr 2013, 08:41

2 more bodies found.

looks like everyone is gone.

RIP Stuart, Karmi and the girls:sad:

Hasselhof

2nd Apr 2013, 08:43

EFB is an H. It is a retract but with gear doors.

NIK320

2nd Apr 2013, 08:48

Wan it depends on the model.
I usually get around the 140kias mark in cruise with a standard IO520.
Vlo is 139 and 160 in the later models.
Not much if anything required to get the gear out, unless you have a fair descent going

ampk

2nd Apr 2013, 09:02

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 12:25

Never believe the media or PPRUNE for facts very few are on either.
AMPK is absolutely correct.

Gileraguy Every Cessna 210 ever built left the factory with retractable gear.

Wan The speed restrictions on deploying a C210 undercarriage are to protect the gear doors. If in dire straits put the gear down at any speed. It's cheaper to replace a door or two than the whole aircraft.

The Green Goblin

2nd Apr 2013, 14:28

Cheers Mate and Family. Take care now will see you the other side.

GG never come to MKT for a beer. Seems you know Jack S.

There were 10 Aircraft in the group, all left Bullo within 1 hour of each other.

Never believe the media or PPRuNe for facts very few are on either.

I understand you are grieving and offer my sincere apologies if I have offended you. However this subject will be discussed to the minute detail as always, and hopefully the younger sprogs will learn a thing or too.

So far the aircraft is where I said it would be, and more than likely got there how I said it got there.

The only other explanation is VFR into IMC. Both generally have the same result.

As for ten aircraft departing together, have you heard of risky shift? I'd suggest you read up on it. The pressure of having 9 other aircraft pressing on, can cause guys to go waaaay outside their comfort zone if they think everyone else is handling it.

Anyway It's another tragic day in Australian aviation.

As for the questions about landing gear, if it were me and I needed to get slow and dirty, I'd rather extend the wheels and record it on the MR, than have my accident and demise being discussed on pprune.

ampk

2nd Apr 2013, 14:47

GG.

You talk guess - we have more facts. Tell the young folk gossip if that is what you wish.

I guess you - as per prev comments on this site know all. Thanks for your personal weather info for that afternoon - must have been what save the rest of us!

Welcome to PM me - if you need.

As for fact 3 aircraft did not depart - Yak 52, Pitts and a Jabiru. Also 1 of my children I was about to put on that aircraft, but then almost 1 other child was about to be on that flight as they had 2 spare seats.

Avgas172

2nd Apr 2013, 18:58

Right from day dot in aviation we all get called upon to make decisions, when I make mine I take into account many things including my passengers well being. Regardless of the angst caused it would appear only three PIC's on that day made the right one, it has various forms including pressonitis. IthinkIcangetthere & she'llberight .... beat the crap out of me on Pprune if you like but regardless of the ton of hurt that is with his mates today, unfortunately this PIC made the wrong decision and has paid the ultimate price, one hopes we may all be able to learn from his sacrifice, especially the young sprogs :sad:

Jack Ranga

2nd Apr 2013, 20:12

Well, it appears the same old lessons are never learned in GA.

If you don't want accidents discussed/dissected on pprune, don't have them.

(P.S. we won't mention Whyalla)

Dora-9

2nd Apr 2013, 20:24

Rutan, not wishing to detract from the sad and serious issues being discussed here, but you're incorrect in this statement:

Every Cessna 210 ever built left the factory with retractable gear.
The not very lamented Cessna 205 was effectively a fixed-gear 210 - which is why it was designated a Cessna 210-5.

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 20:26

unfortunately this PIC made the wrong decision

Avgas172 it must be wonderful to know exactly what went wrong thus allowing you to make your ill considered insensitive statement. Read the type of aircraft that didn't leave. Those pilots made the right decision in not flying that day but if they'd had 210s and the appropriate experience they may well have left with the other seven. I have operated in that area for 17 years in a C210 and know the forecast is often very different to actual weather and also can vary greatly over a short time period as well as a short distance.

By all accounts this pilot did not suffer from pressonitis and was very experienced in the area and aircraft type. It may well have been a case of the holes in the Swiss cheese lining up at the worst possible moment. Sounds like you've ruled out everything except weather, on very little information.

outnabout

2nd Apr 2013, 21:46

So far, I think we can agree that 2013 has been a sh!t of a year for General Aviation in Aust.

Whatever the causes, I would much rather hear the stories of how not to do something first hand over a beer in a bar, and learn that way, rather than reading an ATSB report.

RIP.

Flying Binghi

2nd Apr 2013, 21:54

via outnabout;
Whatever the causes, I would much rather hear the stories of how not to do something first hand over a beer in a bar, and learn that way, rather than reading an ATSB report.

Great idea! It will revolutionise pilot training. No more breifings in a boring fly school - Down the pub we go.....

:rolleyes:

.

Flying Binghi

2nd Apr 2013, 22:02

via Jack Ranger;
Well, it appears the same old lessons are never learned in GA.

If you don't want accidents discussed/dissected on PPRuNe, don't have them.

Well, when most people go through a tuff time in their lives they look to improve things.... Others, they just want to spread their misery..:hmm:

.

outnabout

2nd Apr 2013, 22:04

Flying Binghi:

You mean flying schools don't offer briefings in the bar? What is the world coming to!

:)

(Apologies - my beer in the bar comment didn't come out quite right...but my point is, I'd rather hear the stories first hand, not read an ATSB / Coroners report.)

Flying Binghi

2nd Apr 2013, 22:19

via Avgas172;
Right from day dot in aviation we all get called upon to make decisions, when I make mine I take into account many things including my passengers well being. Regardless of the angst caused it would appear only three PIC's on that day made the right one, it has various forms including pressonitis. IthinkIcangetthere & she'llberight .... beat the crap out of me on PPRuNe if you like but regardless of the ton of hurt that is with his mates today, unfortunately this PIC made the wrong decision and has paid the ultimate price, one hopes we may all be able to learn from his sacrifice, especially the young sprogs.

Hmmm... post designed to keep the churn going methinks..:hmm:

First, lets get that appeal to emotion. I must be a good poster because - i think of the pax, i think of the young sprogs

Second, now that you've established yer a good person, tell the mates suffering "hurt" to go to hell because yer a good person and you will post what yer please.

Third, blame the "mates" for flying that day as that will get more 'bites' and keep the churn going....

Think that about covers it..:hmm:

rutan around

2nd Apr 2013, 22:36

Dora 9 If it left the factory with different doors and fixed gear it wasn't a C210. It was as you say a C210-5 and soon after just C205.
Over the years many people have mistakenly believed that 210s with fully enclosed gear (before the N model) had fixed gear until T/O and the wheels disappeared.

compressor stall

2nd Apr 2013, 22:50

I have flown almost that exact route in a c210 and distinctly remember one wet season (2000?) being forced lower and lower down to below 500 feet under cloud with two big black columns of water from cells many miles wide each side of my track. It was north of the Fitzmaurice. I was heading for the gap between the rain columns - where it was light on the other side. It was getting darker and darker under the thunderheads, I felt like a moth to a light.

As I got closer, two huge lightning bolts arced into the ground in the gap, and it seemed to narrow quickly. Bugger this I thought.

I still had an out behind me - and the fuel - and turned around getting buffeted by the blast coming out the bottom of the cells. I headed south and then picked my way eastwards then northwards getting to Darwin with an extra 0.8 on the tacho.

RIP fellow flier.

Wally Mk2

2nd Apr 2013, 22:58

Take it easy guys, nobody knows it all here so lets have a little respect discuss the known facts (WX & the abilities good or bad of the C210 for Eg) & keep it civilized otherwise the Mods will slam this thread shut & then no one learns anything other than the high levels of testosterone that runs rampant on PPRuNe

Aviation is a risk we all know that, we accept the risks & we mitigate them the best we can by being clever & learning from others, lets do that here okay?

Wmk2

Dora-9

2nd Apr 2013, 23:00

Rutan.

PM sent....

Hot High Heavy

3rd Apr 2013, 00:28

I think VH-EFB has parked in PDN quite a bit (brown livery down the sides, or maybe blue?), over near Air Frontier and AV8.

If its the same one that i am thinking of, it was well kitted out with a full glass panel and dual 540's etc. Looked like it had been refurbed really nicely. A really nice bit of kit. Assuming its the same machine.

Unfortunately all that gear is great to have but still wont save you if the **** hits the fan and the options vanish quickly.

Jack Ranga

3rd Apr 2013, 00:50

Churn away Bingsta, I for one would love to hear your thoughts on this?

(P.S. we won't mention Whyalla)

Homesick-Angel

3rd Apr 2013, 00:56

"As I got closer, two huge lightning bolts arced into the ground in the gap, and it seemed to narrow quickly. Bugger this I thought. "

That was the best thought you had that flight.. Possibly in your life..

Who knows exactly what happened this flight, or in many others. As Ernest Gann put it , many great pilots are not here to put up their own argument..

What I will say is this. When we lose people that we care about, it can be hard to admit they may have been all or in part at fault, or made decisions that led to the outcome, but in aviation we have to be open and honest particularly with ourselves to try and limit the number of these accidents. Blindly protecting anyone will lead to more disasters of this nature, and the facts will come out in time whatever happened.

This is not the place to come if you have recently lost someone, because we will discuss what may have happened here on a rumour network. There is nothing wrong with this.. It is important to speculate because it opens up other avenues of thought that may save one single person and that would surely be enough. The truth in this incident may or may not come out in time. I hope it does.

Sorry to those who are experiencing the loss..

VH-XXX

3rd Apr 2013, 01:36

I have had to turn back on the odd occasion, but I don't enjoy turning back. There have probably been more than one occasion where I didn't turn back and should have, but successfully made it through. What seems like such a big reason to press on at the time, in reality, can always wait until later or the next day. Processing those reasons at a time of duress puts us under even more stress.

I've also had many a boating experience where many would set off and not make it and had to turn back. Sometimes you might be stuck for days whilst waiting for some better weather, so you just have to deal with it, seek alternatives and ride it out. A day off work at short notice is better than never showing up again.

PS: Not suggesting that this has anything to do with this tragic accident, am just adding to the pressing-on posts.

The Mentalist

3rd Apr 2013, 08:26

Have turned back in the same area in a C210 at 400ft due to the same conditions. Easier to wait it out at Kunna's or track east until you get clearer skies. Also have been 35nm over water west of Port Keats in a C310 and called it quits due to weather. The C208 with radar made it to about 10nm from Ypkt and followed me back to Darwin.Have also been 80nm west over water in a C310 Darwin to Truscott due to similar weather.
My point being.- Know when to turn back and have options. Wet season in the Top End, Don't fly without a current IFR rating even if the plane is vfr. It can mean the difference between life and death. Maybe it might have helped these people.

The Wawa Zone

3rd Apr 2013, 09:02

C Stall raised a good point, that being that all it cost him was 0.8, not much in logbook terms or MR time.

Once upon a time I did a survey of revenue hours "lost" due to Wet season WX diversion and plodding around looking for VMC, for our Arnhemland 206 / 210 / BE58 'fleet'. It was..... 1% of total MR hours, so it's financial cost was zip, proving there is no excuse for financial pressure to be a reason to 'get through'. That 1% would also have been a great learning experience for the PIC, in teaching them how to locate more VMC by reading the cloud / rain / ground around them.

The other side of that is that starting a marginal flight, for an extra hour in the book, is pointless if that hour carries 90% of all the risk you carried in that entire logbook.
So we DID 'lose' more through not actually incurring MR time, by staying on the ground watching the trees 500m away turning gray and disappearing. Of course, no other company got the work because they weren't flying either ! Even MAF; they asked God and God told them to f**k off.

Most pressure to fly is self induced. Who really knows what happened in this PIC's mind before and after he left Bullo. A commercial pilot in the chaotic bush environment may have a mixture of adrenaline, fatigue, task orientation and greed, but that is a different paradigm to what happened here.

Someone mentioned staying over land in the Dry and over water in the Wet. Yeah ok, but its a long way to East Timor or New Caledonia. Also if you are trying to get to Milingimbi but all you can see is North Crocodile Island from 500', then that's Nature's way of saying you've (actually me !) really f**ked up :)

210's slapping wings ? So, who knows if that hard landing in Dogs Dick, Arkansas, in 1979 cracked the spar or not ? The thing has a current MR and your endorsement taught you how to fly it, so just FLY IT - the rest is academic; you're a pilot not an aerospace engineer, and you've chosen that. To a certain extent, it will always be 'mine to chose; fate to decide.'

Yo....

Avgas172

3rd Apr 2013, 09:49

Binghi, seriously you have a problem, you have made well over a thousand posts in half the time I have made 250, I am who I say I am, learnt to fly at the NQAC in 1987, and have spent the last 30 years learning. If this discussion was related to the road user, culpable driving causing death could be the outcome from the investigation. Not knowing at this time what was the cause of the accident we mere mortals can only look into ourselves and ask what would WE do in the same situation ... One hopes the answer is to be certain those lives under our charge were not put at any risk whatsoever. As I said in my previous post you may not like it but you will have to live with it.

ampk

3rd Apr 2013, 10:49

When you fly into that funnel and know you need to do a U-turn at 500ft.
Use the autopilot if you have one, or keep a eye on your altimeter.

Don't worry about your wings falling off - most unlikely thing ever to happen to you.

But the water/ground will certainly kill you at 0 feet every time.

Jack Ranga

3rd Apr 2013, 11:03

The Bingsta is a very average individual whose credentials are questionable. Don't get roped into his skulduggery lest you lower yourself to his level. :cool:

Flying Binghi

3rd Apr 2013, 11:47

via Jack Ranga;

Churn away Bingsta, I for one would love to hear your thoughts on this?

(P.S. we won't mention Whyalla)

via Jack Ranga;
The Bingsta is a very average individual whose credentials are questionable. Don't get roped into his skulduggery lest you lower yourself to his level.

"hear your thoughts", "skulduggery"...:confused:

I think i best leave you with that Jack Ranger.

My "credentials" as i have posted before, several times, is i'm just a dumb ol barely literate hill farmer who just happens to fly. And, i'm a barely average pilot at that.

.

Flying Binghi

3rd Apr 2013, 11:54

via Avgas172;
Binghi, seriously you have a problem, you have made well over a thousand posts in half the time I have made 250, I am who I say I am, learnt to fly at the NQAC in 1987, and have spent the last 30 years learning. If this discussion was related to the road user, culpable driving causing death could be the outcome from the investigation. Not knowing at this time what was the cause of the accident we mere mortals can only look into ourselves and ask what would WE do in the same situation ... One hopes the answer is to be certain those lives under our charge were not put at any risk whatsoever. As I said in my previous post you may not like it but you will have to live with it.

err..:confused:

Whatever, ATSB have opened a file on this accident. We will know some more in due course.

Investigation: AO-2013-063 - Collision with water involving Cessna 210, VH-EFB, approximately 100 km NNE Wadeye, Northern Territory on 1 April 2013 (http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/investigation_reports/2013/aair/ao-2013-063.aspx)

.

Deaf

3rd Apr 2013, 13:21

ATSB have opened a file on this accident

Recent stuff has shown than ASTB is not BASI so that "'We will know some more in due course" is like anything from Canberra ie " We will get more meaningless s**t"

edited to add

in due course
means "maybe sometime"

Old Akro

3rd Apr 2013, 13:44

We will know some more in due course.

The ATSB & I do not share the same definition of "in due course"

Flying Binghi

3rd Apr 2013, 14:40

Strange day...

"in due course" is a term i used - Not ATSB

QSK?

3rd Apr 2013, 23:24

I can't recall the person who made this quote or the exact words of the quote itself, but it is one that I always kept in the back of my mind when flying VFR.

The quote from an air safety investigator (nationality unknown) went something like this when commenting on aircraft accidents involving inadvertent VFR flight into IMC: "It amazes me that the day following an aircraft accident is invariably always a sunny clear day"Maybe somebody can source and post the exact quote because it is a good one for VFR pilots to remember when making go/no go decisions (and for clarification I'm not relating this quote as necessarily being the cause of the current accident situation. Other more qualified people than I will make that determination).

Skywagon1915

3rd Apr 2013, 23:56

I recall that line following a CFIT loss of an aircraft (Cherokee ?) in poor Wx west of Scone late afternoon and when the accident site was found soon after, it was CAVOK. Female pax died and pilot survived overnight ordeal I recall.

Same applies to floods, mostly rescue efforts are in sunshine.

outnabout

4th Apr 2013, 00:21

Wasn't / Isn't there a SIDS to inspect the wing spar on Cessnas, and a SIDS to inspect the control cables for corrosion / wear & tear?

Listening to a former FF employee, and he waxed very eloquent on SIDS, pointing out that (in his opinion) SIDS are almost impossible to prove whether or not they have actually been inspected.

The Wawa Zone

4th Apr 2013, 02:06

In VH-EFB's case, the owner (since last century) is an engineer who knew every nut and bolt in the aircraft, so I would suggest the thing was right up to date !

Avgas172

4th Apr 2013, 08:17

My "credentials" as i have posted before, several times, is i'm just a dumb ol barely literate hill farmer who just happens to fly. And, i'm a barely average pilot at that.

Amen Binghi, and I concur with your self analysis.

ampk

4th Apr 2013, 09:59

That person was not the current owner. The PIC at the time was. However that engineer was in the air in the same area at the time. But your comment is other wise good. Sids are not required however until end of DEC this year.

NGsim

4th Apr 2013, 12:15

Can we start saving my tax dollars and disband the ATSB.
Given that it's clearly been decided that apparently due to a 'down draught' in poor weather, a wing spar failure occured just inside of the ailerons where the wings went down toward the fuselage, not up, contrary to popular belief.

Why bother being a rumour network when so many people clearly only speak 'facts'......

Wan

4th Apr 2013, 20:27

To be fair, all of those points were made about the C210 in general and nobody said definitively that is what happened - just one possibility in a CB, into which it is somewhat possible that the plane flew, given weather on the day and reports of the pilot's radio calls.

GG:

"VNE excursions in strong down draughts are typical"

I don't understand that - observing a high descent rate, wouldn't the pilot seek to climb? Or did you mean by this stage the aircraft is out of control and "plummeting" in a nose dive? Just don't know how airspeed would necessarily change - I thought one reason for break-ups in CBs was that one wing could be in strong updraft, the other down.

Wally Mk2

4th Apr 2013, 22:19

I believe it's generally accepted that once inside a fully developed mature TS then all bets are off & comes down to a fight for survival!
The conditions within would be horrendous with up & down droughts exceeding the limits of most A/C of the light cat not to mention that the pilot 'may' only be VFR capable (I don't know that for a fact). This combined with the incredible disorientating environment the pilot found himself in together with the added fact that the ASI was now out of his control as a VFR driver as well as all the other inst going nuts! & possible lightening as well as possible defining hail belting the airframe ( & the screams within the cabin) would all add up to an uncontrollable event even to a well trained IFR pilot that saw the airframe leaving normal controlled flight 'till it hit the water/ground possibly not intact.
Obviously all of the above is just a scenario but is very plausible & it's been well documented that we ALL stay well away from TS's & for good reasons.

I once had the displeasure of experiencing some severe turb whilst flying down the side of a line of TS's in southern Vic by about 30-50 miles in clear visual air, the turb was nothing short of approaching airframe/pilot limits & I wasn't anywhere near it...well at least I thought I wasn't. I can't imagine what these people went thru if indeed he/they entered a TS.
Lets all hope that the poor unfortunates have gone to a better place & that this sad event will leave the rest of us a little more cautious.

Wmk2

Kulwin Park

5th Apr 2013, 01:38

Just jumping back to the original thread topic.
Wondering if they have found the actual aircraft wreck and/or 4th person?
If the wreck is found, we may actually have an idea if the wings were folded, the gear was out to slow down, if something else happened? Just a thought so i can prevent anything happening on any further flights. I do actually learn something from this thread every now and then
Cheers, KP

The Green Goblin

5th Apr 2013, 01:54

"VNE excursions in strong down draughts are typical"

A fair question but also pedantic as everyone knew what I meant. I should rephrase that statement as strong up/down draughts.

It's when you push forward to maintain altitude with a 6000fpm up draught, then pull up when you hit the inevitable down draught that things get ugly.....

lurker999

5th Apr 2013, 02:05

They have cancelled the search.

the 4th person has been left to the gods.

they have found only scattered wreckage, nothing that resembles an aircraft.

Acting Commander Mark Christopher said: "Authorities today concentrated their land, air and sea search around the Anson Bay area, but apart from minor wreckage believed to be from the plane, have not located anything further".

"Advice we have received is that it's highly unlikely the plane would have remained intact. Search suspended | News | NT News | Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia | ntnews.com.au (http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2013/04/03/319216_ntnews.html)

The Wawa Zone

5th Apr 2013, 10:04

Actually 'considering' up / down drafts is not really the issue, because all the PIC will be doing is (in this sort of aircraft) flying the AH and trying to keep it at low pitch and roll numbers, and opposing the + / - G (actually Gz) loads with the stick.

The reason for this is that if the AH gets too excited and falls over, its bye bye. The pitot/static system will be full of water and totally useless, so there's no partial panel ever going to happen, and that little gyro is all you're ever going to have.
That about all you can do, AH, gear out and the power set for what you know to correspond to turb penetration speed. Altitude, heading or track is not even going to be a consideration. Sit there and fly it until the wind and rain noise stops. Wally Mk2 got it pretty much spot on ! None of that would be feasible without a Instrument rating.

Oh yeah, the pax noise and water coming in though places you don't usually see it !

Deaf

5th Apr 2013, 11:25

The Green Goblin

6th Apr 2013, 02:17

rutan around

6th Apr 2013, 04:41

Many posts seem to think C210 inflight break-ups are common. They're not. The C210 is very strong especially pulling positive Gs. A mate flying a C210 at 4500 ft up near MTI flew( in severe clear air) about 4 miles abeam a large CB with a well developed anvil. Without warning the aircraft dropped 200- 300ft throwing everyone violently off their seats hard against the belts.It was so violent the pilot ended up with his legs tangled up with those of the passenger in the PX legwell. The aircraft was then thrown around like a rag doll in a Rottweiler's mouth. It was so violent he couldn't extricate himself. He said it really made no difference as the aircraft was completely out of control and control column input seemed to have no effect. This went on for several minutes. He thought they were going to die.Then as suddenly as it started the violence stopped . They were at 12,500ft. He flew a long way from the cloud and not knowing what damage he might have and descended slowly to the nearest airport. On close examination the only damage they found was a few popped rivets in the top wing skin.He commented that he would never again doubt the strength of a 210 nor would he ever again fly within a bull's roar of a CB. Note at no time during the entire episode was he in cloud. I can only imagine how much worse it would have been had that occurred.