PDA

View Full Version : Pilots shortage


samca
24th Jan 2013, 10:37
Hi guys,

Well, It seems that all the analisys conclusión is the same. Do not Pay for the line trainings, they do not have enough people for flying the aircrafts order a in the next years.
China is happening, Thailand, India and is starting in USA. I see a los of jobs in USA for GA jobs, in Canadá there is a los of jobs offer. Let's get a FAA licence if you have more that 1500 hrs. Keep your licence and HT up to date, the situación is gonna change very soon. You will see.



www.kwqc.com/story/20653145/national-pil...rtage-affects-flyers


Jet set ready for take-off | Bangkok Post: business (http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/aviation/33...ates-legal-headaches)


www.wsoctv.com/news/news/local/airlines-...e-pilots-soon/nTwq5/


www.examiner.com/article/american-eagle-...pilot-shortage-looms


www.examiner.com/article/american-eagle-...pilot-shortage-looms

cyrilroy21
24th Jan 2013, 11:00
I dont know where you got India in the list but India has more than enough pilots for the next decade and the numbers continue to swell :(

zondaracer
24th Jan 2013, 12:14
There is no shortage in the USA. Only a shortage of people willing to work for poverty wages.

Aerodramaticist
24th Jan 2013, 13:18
to bad I´m from europe. But still hoping you´ll be right.

Art of flight
24th Jan 2013, 13:35
China and India rely on growth through selling to the (more) devoloped areas such as Europe and USA, they're in a mess that will take 10-20 years to stabilise. Pilot shortage anytime soon? Don't think so.

samca
24th Jan 2013, 14:30
Chinais paying to young people in order to make more pilots. China is grwing up strongly and for each 5 aircrafts A320 sold 1 is for China...:rolleyes:

zondaracer
24th Jan 2013, 14:43
I think China's growth is over optimistic

BBC News - China's ghost towns and phantom malls (http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19049254)

And like SAMCA said, China is paying for training of Chinese FOs. If you are a foreigner without the required experience on type, it is a closed shop.

NEWYEAR
24th Jan 2013, 14:45
Samca,

You wanted to write T.R instead of HT, didn´t you? :)

zondaracer
24th Jan 2013, 14:49
In Spanish, type rating is Habilitación de Tipo (HT)

NEWYEAR
24th Jan 2013, 15:31
Many things have been written about this issue "pilots shortage."
For instance, China has shortage of experienced Captains on TR such as A320.
Anyway, from your bottom of your heart, your post (Samca) shows a positive attitude. However, have a look the threads from USA for example...You will see that there is nobody talking about this issue. Why? Because there are a great amount of pilots, so not shortage.
Americans are waiting to come back from Asia or Arabs Countries, etc to USA=HOME. We are still under the influence of the crisis, I mean the Western. :hmm:

samca
24th Jan 2013, 18:54
Yeah, sorry HT means TR, my mistake ;). But I'm speaking of shortage not today but in a few months or years. We will start to feel this new situation in next summer, you will see. It is not inmediate, for me there is a lot o circunstances.

First retirement of pilots reaching 65,
Second, new regulation in USA,
The market in Asia is going to grow up too much.

The crisis also has done that banks give you peanuts if you going to buy a piece of paper, 100.000 euros do you want?, the bank says ok, I need that sign your father, your mother, your uncle, your autum, your grandfather... Even your neighbour. As a result a lot of Fly schools bankrupt, at least here in Europe.

So if there is a lot of USA pilots coming back to their country becouse there will be not enough qualifed pilots for flying in USA airlines.it will be open a nice hole in Asia or whatever they are flying.

Also another positive factor is 2013 last year of crisis so...

I know that I can seem too much optimist but I see like that.

mad_jock
24th Jan 2013, 19:01
Not a chance Samca

By next summer ther are going to be thousands of experenced pilots coming on the market as there will be some big collapses proberly about Feb/Mar.

So yes there will be a change in circumstances but it ain't going to be pretty and certainly won't get low houred pilots jobs.

UAV689
24th Jan 2013, 20:16
3000 people on ryan's database alone. Imagine how many people are not even on their lost because they cant pay for a tr so no point in applying

Your deluded to think there is a shortage.

zondaracer
24th Jan 2013, 20:40
Your deluded to think there is a shortage.

Sometimes delusion and false hope are what people need to keep them sane and from falling into desperation :ouch:

samca
24th Jan 2013, 21:02
This is like a chain, I'm not telling that the situation changes inmediatly for Low hour pilots, BUT if the pilots with some experience like me (2500 hrs and 1500 jet time plus two TR) can find a job in an airline will leave our job ( FI, Ambulance, charters, parachutes) for you guys.

The problem It has been that everything has been stuck for 5 years, It must to start to run again and honestly I think aviation is gonna change very soon.

Why you think that we going to be overcrewed in Feb or March mad_Jock? Give me a convincent reason?,

You will see what happen in Asia before the end of this year!

Feedmemore
25th Jan 2013, 03:42
Nothing will change, get use to it....

there is no more expansion, only few retired pilots but not enough to create a mass hiring of pilots.


Sorry, time to apply at tesco for most of us apparently.

samca
25th Jan 2013, 08:54
In Europe yeah we will continúe but I'm speaking of Asia and USA.

today News


What's behind pilot shortage threat? | News - Home (http://www.click2houston.com/news/What-s-behind-pilot-shortage-threat/-/1735978/18250720/-/goy5yg/-/index.html)

mad_jock
25th Jan 2013, 09:05
The Air Line Pilots Association said the shortage is being hyped up. The group said the solution lies in a more competitive North American airline industry that can better compete with global competitors.

"With consistently profitable and stable airlines, our industry can offer the salary, benefits and job security that will retain and attract the most qualified pilots, now and in the future," said the Air Line Pilots Association.


Yep I agree with them.

When they increase the terms and conditions for regional pilots they will get the seats filled.

pac84
25th Jan 2013, 10:42
Nice statement... Wirbelsturm!

listen to pilots who know the business :-) ... Also my colleagues from the LTU/airberlin who fly since the 80s say that there never really was a shortage (besides 2006).

Since decades the press is writing about pilot's shortage and I dont know how much they get from the Flight Schools.

A man working for the german employment agency for pilots in Frankfurt told me that the years ending with a six (1976,1986,1996,2006) are the good years. Let´s see what is happening in 2016.

Germanys working agency counts around 1000 jobless pilots. But 3000 licence holders have a job as Ramp Agents, McDonalds, Cabin Crew or something else. In the Netherlands there are 2000 pilots not working in a Flightdeck.

Good luck for you all

NEWYEAR
25th Jan 2013, 14:52
Samca;

According to your replies, you are an experienced and young pilot.
Have you applied for COPA?

On the other hand,

What would be your proposal?
Are you thinking in going to USA without the green card to get a job in general or regional aviation?
What would be your plan? Keep in mind that you would need two plans (A&B):confused:

samca
25th Jan 2013, 16:52
Not to USA, I'm thinking in ASIA. I think that there will be not enough asiatics for flying the airplanes ordered for Asia companies. So thats my plan. And also I'm thinking in convalidating my licence to FAA just to Fly N registered airplanes around the world.:mad:

PURPLE PITOT
25th Jan 2013, 17:37
If you want to go to asia, best have a type and good time on it. Local governments are protecting their own, and the usual suspects are building schools out there already. You missed the boat.

samca
25th Jan 2013, 21:35
No my friend, I have not lost any boat. I'm typed on A320 with ATPL and 1500 jet time so. There is some Companies contacting with my experience.:=

pilotchute
26th Jan 2013, 04:18
Samca,

So have you applied to Asiana, Air Macau, Sri Lankan, Jetstar Hong Kong and Jetstar Japan? They are all recruiting right now either directly or through agencies.

I also beleive the airline down the road from Emirates is also taking 320 FO's at a pretty constant rate.

A guy I know personally got a job with Jetstar Singapore and he hadn't flown a bus in 3 years!

samca
26th Jan 2013, 10:04
Yeah I have applied to Jetstar Hong Kong and also to Air Macau, still waiting. Also i applied to SRiLankan and Asiana. Copa and LAN. Let see I did in December so I supose It is soon and I have to wait.

Airrival time for a pilot shortage?

Todays news

Chicago Tribune (http://my.chicagotribune.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-74165474/)


Consumer Alert: New FAA regulations could lead to pilot shortage | News - Home (http://www.clickorlando.com/news/Consumer-Alert-New-FAA-regulations-could-lead-to-pilot-shortage/-/1637132/18280012/-/4xji3l/-/index.html)

mad_jock
26th Jan 2013, 11:06
The Airline Pilots Association does not agree with the prediction. They say the shortage is exaggerated.

Well good luck with the medical, high percentage of pilots that go over have resigned from thier jobs then fail the medical and end up jobless.

Then there are the western pilots who can't handle the cultral change.

Then come back to find no job.

And the Headline is wrong.

It should be Consumer alert. You are now going to have to pay more for your airline ticket because the airlines have to pay the pilots a decent wage to get the to work for them.

NEWYEAR
26th Jan 2013, 12:30
Asia is not for everyone... :=

samca
26th Jan 2013, 12:55
I supose Asia is very different BUT if they call me I go, there is no way I have to do It.

Agaricus bisporus
26th Jan 2013, 13:22
There are often some type ratings more in demand than others but "pilot shortage' is a general and widespread phenomenon that has never yet been seen.

There isn't a pilots shortage, there never has been a pilots shortage and I daresay there never will be one.

Get over it. Its a pipedream of jobseekers. Its a myth. It won't happen.

mad_jock
26th Jan 2013, 13:39
As one auld boy at work said.

There is more likely to be a shortage of dog :mad: than pilots.

Peripero
26th Jan 2013, 23:13
It seems that all of you guys know what is going on. Everywhere I look there's a headline about pilot shortage, which leads a fresh pilot like me (PPL, 80h, currently on ATPL distance learning) to thinking that there is hope. There is that story about a lot of captains retiring in the years to come, along with the new FAA regulations worsening the situation, blah :rolleyes:

I understand that some of you may discredit me because I am only a private pilot, for now, and not in the industry as we speak, but common sense tells me a couple of simple facts. I also know discussions like this one happen on pprune on a daily basis, but what the heck.

1. All economic booms happen after a crisis. After and IF the creators of this controlled economic mess called the recession decide that time has come to ease up a bit, there might be some hope for all of us wannabe airline pilots. So the only question is when will this happen. Maybe in a year, maybe in 5 or even 10.

2. In theory, when economies get in the expansion phase, people spend more, i.e. travel more because the media doesn't intimidate them with stories about the recession, the debt, the layouts etc. But, will airline industry ever get to the levels it was in the golden years (whichever these might be)? Someone mentioned the years ending with sixes... Never mind.

3. There will always be a shortage of competent and highly experienced pilots (captains, obviously), especially the ones that are willing to work for less money. This, I think, is the key moment here. Corporations, which are psychopathic in nature (no emotions), do not see beyond profit, and a high paying job like pilots' is no more than an unnecessary expense. To them, pilots are monkeys flyin' the damn plane. The fact that there's an army of desperate people who pay for their TR and line training, which is only adding insult to injury. This means slow but certain degradation of pilots line of work and getting these idiotic companies used to us bearing the cost. But again, desperate times call for desperate measures.

4. There is no point in having a shortage in labor force. That way the men and women have the power. The corporations know that very well, which is why we were all conditioned to believe that it is an absolute must to get a degree in something. In order to have power over workforce you must make them abundant, which is exactly the case with today's pilots.

THE POINT IS: There's more to this than we all think. As with everything in life, luck is an important factor, ant there is nothing we can do about it.

I think that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this post, and pretty uncalled for. Just as I write this, it makes me wonder if it's worth the money and effort. I started flying at 29 because, among other things, it was a life-long dream for me to fly an airliner, and it seemed like a nice way to make a decent living for my family (I'm a 30y old father of a 2-year old boy). I have a BSc in economics and business, but as all things today, it's pretty worthless. Listening to all of you guys does far more than discourage me to move on with my flight training. I was obviously deluded thinking there was hope to get a job.

I've just welcomed myself to the club. Cheers yall :sad:

Peripero
26th Jan 2013, 23:42
An interesting opinion to read:

"PILOT SHORTAGE, LIE.

I hate to stomp on the dreams of the new private pilot, but don’t you want the truth. I was a new private pilot once, and I was told the same lies. I read the same magazines, and listened to the same old timers say, “Oh, you are getting in at a great time”. That was 20 years ago, and the same magazines, and the same flight schools are pumping the same rhetoric – “The Pilot Shortage”, lol… I spent the first 10 years of my pilot career “suffering”. I worked two jobs, took loans out that I didn’t know how I was going to pay, and held on to a dream of working at a major airline job. When I got my first legacy airline job – I took a $30k pay cut, had to wait 6 months for benefits, and was on probation or a year. I didn’t have to worry about probation – I was furloughed 9 months later. I ended up like the rest of the dreamers – on the street.
If your reading this, and don’t want to read any more. I’m sorry. I am writing this because I wish someone would have told me, what I am about to tell you.
The major airlines control a major part of this economy. Think about it. Billions of dollars change hands every day, because an airliner takes flight. From the people that clean the bathrooms at the airport, to the FAA inspectors – They are all paid because of the airlines. Now think about that money. The government gets a little cut here and there, and big cut of the fuel cost. All through taxes. Its trillions of dollars a year for uncle Sam. The government will not allow these airlines to shrink or loose business.
Now, there are new regulations to be effective Jan 14th 2013 (I believe), and yes there are some retirements coming, but the airlines know this. They have been planning for years.
The airlines will continue to shrink, and merge to offset ANY pilot shortage. They will fly bigger planes, with fewer stops. This has already been seen. Look at the regionals. It was only 10-20 years ago that the regionals parked the majority of the prop aircraft and began flying 50 seat jets. Now its 70, 90, soon 100 seat jets. There are fewer flight options, more connections, and eventually higher ticket fares.
If you love flying, than I encourage you to continue flying, but don’t think its going to be an easy road where you will make a lot of money. I have been doing this for over 20 years, I work for one of the largest carriers in the world. I make less than I made as a grocery clerk for Albertson’s in 1991, and now I have a $750 a month student loan payment…"

Source: Pilot Shortage, LIE! | Airline Life and Airline Wife (http://airlinelifeandairlinewife.com/home/blog/pilot-shortage-lie/)

Feedmemore
28th Jan 2013, 08:42
Job in usa are for us citizen or green card.
Job in Asia are for Asian


So if you are European, stay in Europe because nobody want these jaa certificate which are just a pain for operators.

If I had to hire pilot, I will certainly not hire European pilots. After these guys will sue my as because I didn't pay for their opc check, line training,jaa renewal certificate, easa conversion fee, eu fee, etc.... Plus type rating cost 3 times more than in the USA.

The best I could do is to transform my training department in a pay to fly training to save money.

This is why, you, guys from Europe, we have no job, because the system in Europe is a pain in the butt for everybody...

flyingscorp
17th Feb 2013, 14:11
samca

I feel you are rt someway but again there are pilots growing/gainin experience (too) here and there. So, while others have more logical arguments/statistics I will be inclined towards them considering the overall picture. Give you an idea, in Bangladesh there are number of flyin schools opened up recently totallin 130-150 student pilots. Again some of the military pilots are also joinin the pool ultimately serving for comertial and private air liners. Experienced pilots serving local airliners are switchin to international carriers. Few of the posts are hired from abroad and rest are occupied by locals/expatriats. Irony is that every country in the name of SHORTAGE trainin more pilots than the industry can accommodate. While there is a shortage created for experienced ones these are being filled up by the newly experienced pilots. I think as population and their movements around the world is increased that way samaca may be rt but every day more short timers are join the world of aviators.

I would love to see samaca correct on the issue though!