The risk of in-flight incapacitation vs flight time

[Bald Rick]

It seems that, because an individual’s annual risk of incapacitation and their annual flight time are independent variables, the risk of in-flight pilot incapacitation can be managed by limiting flight time as well as setting a maximum base annual risk of incapacitation. I haven't seen this discussed in the relevant medical papers ... have I missed it, or are have I made a false assumption?

Let me develop the argument a little to explain what I mean. The annual base risk of incapacitation for Class 1 certification is set at 1% and the FTL is 900 hours/year. 900 hours is close to one tenth of a year so it looks like someone decreed that the acceptable limit for in-flight pilot incapacitation was 0.1% and then decided on 1% and 900 hours as the respective limits in order to achieve the desired in-flight risk. Is this 0.1% figure documented anywhere?

My point is that the risk of incapacitation in flight can be maintained constant as one variable changes, by changing the value of the other. The same risk of in-flight pilot incapacitation risk of 0.1% could be achieved with annual limits of 2% and 500 hours, or 4% and 250 hours.

What have I missed?

BR

[homonculus]

I haven't seen this but it isn't a matter for a 'medical paper'

A peer reviewed paper would discuss the risk of an event to a population. Extrapolating it to an individual is fraught with problems although that is what the CAA appear to do. Doctors in normal life do not although we do tell our patients the population data - a subtle differences. Going one step further and applying this multiplyer seems to me to be bonkers. The next thing is that the near dead would be asking for a license on the basis that they only fly a few hours a year.

The biggest problem we have is the initial assessment of risk. The CAA as I understand it use medical and actuarial data that is out of date arguing that they do not have the resources to revise their dictats to take account of changes in the pilot population or diagnosis or treatment. This is what clobbers many pilots