The lesser of two evils (A hypothetical situation)

[piperboy84]

I was driving back from a day’s boating in Oban (West coast of Scotland) to Dundee (East coast of Scotland) and as is my habit on long car journeys across different terrain and conditions, I ask myself how would I fly this route (I’m a low time VFR PPL). The weather was pretty much unrestricted viz, low wind with about 50% cloud covering coming down as low as a few hundred feet of the mountain tops, the terrain for the first ¾ of the journey is mountainous with narrow passes and valleys surrounded by steep mountain peaks up to 3500 to 4000ft, the remaining ¼ of the journey is down on to a coastal plain at about 250MSL. What was unusual about this “mental flight plan” was I could not decide the best altitude I would use in this particular situation, my thoughts were as follows:

1. Stay under the partial cloud covering and ensure permanent ground visibility but perhaps expect some bumps by being so close under the bases and having my altitude restricted to the tops of the ridges with the potential of being exposed to rotors/mountain wave if the wind picked up, also running the risk of the bases dropping down lower into the passes and obscuring the hilltops.

2. Fly above the cloud covering which I assume would be smoother but run the risk of the 50% covering becoming 100% as I near the coast.

I would be interested to hear from folks with more experience as to what considerations I may have missed and what factors would drive their decision in this scenario.

[Crash one]

I've only done Kingsmuir/Oban once, late December, it was clear all the way there, but on the way back about 50% cloud close to the summits. Stayed above it still in sight of the surface & worried in case it clagged in all over. It didn't & decended from 4/5000ft in the flatlands south of Perth.
I think I found your strip on Saturday east of Forfar, couldn't see any activity on the ground so went home. Nice looking strip, & looks wide enough for my suboptimal landings.:ok:

[piperboy84]

U should have dropped in, I was away but my girlfriend said she saw a N reg plane ending with an F circling low, was that you?

[peterh337]

CAS permitting, I'd go straight over the top and then do a letdown over the sea at the other end :)

[Crash one]

I was away but my girlfriend said she saw a N reg plane ending with an F circling low, was that you?

No, I was at about 3500ft yellow Emeraude, G reg. Next time I'll give it a go.

[foxmoth]

CAS permitting, I'd go straight over the top and then do a letdown over the sea at the other end

Peter, looking at your profile you have the experience to do this, the OP says he is a low hour VFR PPL so could get himself in problems following this!

I would say the answer depends a lot on the forecast, as long as behind you is going to remain OK and you have the fuel, then go on top with a turn back as an option, another is to stay on top as long as you have decent gaps and let down through one (ensuring you do this in good time and keeping the surface WELL in sight) if it starts to close in! Bearing in mind that if windy and/or the cloubase is too low you may need to turn back anyway. Of course you could get IF trained and then do as Peter suggests. I would be very wary of flying low through mountainous areas without suitable training.
Finally, there is the safest option if you are unsure of the weather - stay on the ground!:}

[peterh337]

Yes; agreed.

However I should add that the whole of Europe (except the UK) has allowed PPLs to fly above a solid overcast for as many years as anybody can remember.

What is different in the UK? The lack of navigation training?

You need to remain VMC so checking the wx (actual and forecast) carefully at the far end is necessary.

It's a choice between flying below cloud (and possibly getting stuffed by a gradual convergence of terrain and cloudbase, and if letting this go too far, being unable to turn back while maintaining VMC) and flying above cloud and getting stuffed by not finding a hole to descend through.

The former kills far more pilots than the latter.

In the southern UK, one usually cannot fly above cloud, due to Class A everywhere.

[scotbill]

The Dragon Rapide had no deicing equipment (other than the dubious expedient of spreading grease on leading edges!) With its struts and wires it was an ideal ice-gathering device.
When it was the mainstay of Scottish domestic services, captains were understandably reluctant to enter cloud in winter time - particularly as letdown aids were primitive and rare.
It follows that they devised many low level routes from town to town. It is possible to return from the Hebrides to Glasgow without exceeding 200 feet by judicious use of sea routes and the Crinan canal.
It is also possible to fly from Inverness to Stornoway without exceeding 1000 feet - although that could be a rough ride in strong winds and required accurate map reading!

[mad_jock]

Get the wx for Dun,ABZ and EDI and upper winds.

If tail wind and OK on east coast bang over the top.

If not turn right at fort william and pick up the A9

[maxred]

Well. it is the age old debate, do we go up??, or do we stay down. Good old scud running is the term, and in Scotland, most pilots should be particularly adept at it.Follow the A9, and you cant get lost, or something like that.

Peter is of course correct, we bang on about safety, and how can we improve it, and yet, more restricted airspace than ever before, more controlled airspace than ever, and more interesting weather of late. The CAA introduced that IMC, 'the get out of jail card, a term I really dislike, in recognition of the UK terrain, and weather, however, perhaps all pilots should be IR trained?? Perhaps you could start with SEP, Complex type, and issue financial incentives to schools and trainee's, now that would be progress towards SAFETY.

If the viz is good below, and you know your way around, stay below and go low level. If weather at destination has been checked, go above, but planning is key, and having a get out at the other end is always prudent.

[140KIAS]

My low level option to Oban involves routing via Kippin, Helenburgh, Dunoon, Bute, Crinan Canal and up the west coast.

Adds about 50% compared with DCT but gets you there.

Where do you berth your boat? A buddy of mine has one at Dunstaffnage and flys up most weekends.

[mad_jock]

A9 and you cant get lost, or something like that

Watchout for busting rule 5 though with a train.

[maxred]

Been there, done that - reminds me of a day long ago, transiting form Inverness to CBN, in total crap. Picked up the A9, however, took a wrong turn in a particularly heavy rain shower, into a dead end valley.

Can we turn in here was the comment to my colleague sitting behind. Course we can came the reply, back out and picked the road up again.

Blinded by headlights though.........

[dont overfil]

If you go to The Scottish Gliding Centre Official Website (http://www.scottishglidingcentre.co.uk) and click on webcams around Scotland that may help you make a decision.

I've used the route described by 140kias many times and it can be done well below 1000 ft.

The A9 is ok for Inverness but remember it climbs above 1000ft.

D.O.

[Shaggy Sheep Driver]

perhaps all pilots should be IR trained?? Perhaps you could start with SEP, Complex type, and issue financial incentives to schools and trainee's, now that would be progress towards SAFETY.

Financial incentives? The taxpayer subsidising a rich man's hobby? I don't think so! The man on the Clapham omnibus would say "if it takes that to make it safe, mandate it. But the user, not the taxpayer, must pay the bills".

Regarding the OP, a low hour PPL shouldn't attempt that flight in those conditions. There is insufficient VMC twixt clouds and mountains (recipe for CFIT), and he doesn't have the qualifications or experience to handle an IFR letdown if he went 'on top' and the cover became 100%.

.

[dont overfil]

Regarding the OP, a low hour PPL shouldn't attempt that flight in those conditions. There is insufficient VMC twixt clouds and mountains (recipe for CFIT), and he doesn't have the qualifications or experience to handle an IFR letdown if he went 'on top' and the cover became 100%.



Shaggy I must disagee. If this was the case there would hardly be any VFR flying in Scotland at all.

The highest mountain tops on that route are 3800ft. Piperboy described the cloud as 50% cover and above the peaks. It doesn't get much better most of the time. (Provided there are not strong winds blowing) the valleys are wide and the peaks sparse so VFR is fine.

I'm not suggesting the road route from Forfar to Oban is the best to fly but many of the valley routes are fine.

If the wx is overcast at 2000ft then 140kias route is the answer. Often when you get to Loch Lomond you can see a clear way direct to Oban which would be a sensible short cut.

As an afterthought if you can get a couple of thousand feet above the cloud tops you can get a pretty good view of the ground with 50% cover and you will be above any haze. You may be able to see Ben Cruachan from Forfar and you will have a grandstand seat to see if the cloud is closing up ahead..

Piperboy if you want a blether you'll get me on 119.80

D.O.

[gasax]

The key on how to get from one side to the other is to uinderstand what is happening 'on both sides'. The high ground frequently results in very different conditions on both sides.

Webcams, METARs and talking to people on the other side allow you build that picture. Experience then allows you to make the decision. It is interesting to seek out low level routes - if only for their scenery value and potential use as bolt holes.

At the end of the day there is a possiblity of taking the high option and getting to the other side and being faced with unbroken cloud. In the Maule (or my aircraft) the final option is simply to come back! Frequently you will find the cloud cover is broken in the lee of the higher island on the west or the larger peaks on the east. My personal preference is to take the low route and I'm relaxed about flying in the sort of conditions you describe - they are pretty common. The gotcha is that the windward facing slopes may accumulate a lot of low clound and so you may find your route blocked as you get toward the lower ground. There is always the option of a 180 turn...

Taking the low option presumes you can sort out where the rotor / turbulence will be and you the weather is reasonable enough to avoid it. As Dont overfill says these sort of conditions are pretty common here.

[Shaggy Sheep Driver]

As an afterthought if you can get a couple of thousand feet above the cloud tops you can get a pretty good view of the ground with 50% cover and you will be above any haze. You may be able to see Ben Cruachan from Forfar and you will have a grandstand seat to see if the cloud is closing up ahead..

So you do a 180 and.... oh dear, it's now 8/8 there as well! :\

[mad_jock]

Have you done much flying through the cairngorms/west coast of scotland? SSD?

There are some of us that have had to get N to S and back again, sometimes 3 times a week winter/summer come snow rain hurricians and the occassional nice day.

And its been going on for at least 10 years.

[Johnm]

The answer must always be to take the safest option and worry about the legalities later. this usually involves climbing rather than descending in Scotland unless over a wide bit of sea.

Almost every time I've been to Oban or Glenforsa I've ended up spiralling down to cloud break overhead BRUCE.

I don't know how many hours you have but if more than about 20 your next step should be an IMCR and then you can follow Peter's strategy with confidence

[mad_jock]

You can always get a PAR at Leuchars if you really get in the poo.

Never needed it in all the time I was doing those runs but it was my final reserve plan.

Oh and if you do go high make sure you don't bust P600 as one of the instructors after me did quite spectacularly.

[dont overfil]

So you do a 180 and.... oh dear, it's now 8/8 there as well! http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/smilies/wibble.gif

It's happened to me as a passenger after a G&T induced nap but never caught me by surprise as a pilot.

Maybe the 100 knot cloud will come with the next stage of global warming:).

D.O.

[mad_jock]

Its already here in Sumburgh and Wick.

[gasax]

On a good day you can see from one side of the country to the other. I know that is impossible in the S'auf 'cos there are so many of you - but up here that is the way it is.

The only time that the 180 will not work is if you are trying to get away from 'the haar' then where you have just been, might suddenly close up - otherwise it is almost unheard of. The weather here might be pretty mixed and Shetland might have 100kt fog - but the rest of the country it takes time to change - much longer than will occur if you do a 180 within the time it takes to cover the high ground. Yes the holes and clouds will have moved but they are still there.

In the earlier reply I mentioned 'getting an idea' of ehat was happening. If cloud is starting to stack up on the windward slopes it will build and rapidly become a solid layer - so you would have to go further and further upwind to get clear of it.

But this is not hard, the high ground usually forces the cloud cover up to ridge height and in many places that is 2000' - that is how Fresson and his chaps made something approaching 99% regularity, flying VFR through this country. They are undoubtedly much braver than most (all?) of us - but that is a dispatch rate (more importantly arrival rate!) that is hard to match with today's equipment.

[dont overfil]

Its already here in Sumburgh and Wick.

100 knot fog as well.:ok:

SSD
The point I was trying to make is if you are high enough above the tops you will not be caught by surprise. I am also assuming the forecast has been noted.

D.O.

[mad_jock]

Have you seen the picture of the old crew room in Dalcross?


IMC with fag smoke and at least 2 bottles of whisky on each table. And every one playing cards.

[Shaggy Sheep Driver]

Maybe the 100 knot cloud will come with the next stage of global warming

Well if it does it'd mean a surface wind that'd preclude most flying anyway! And if it come while you're up there, no probs as your speed relative to the clouds will never be more or less than your air speed. ;) Wx can close in behind you. At least it can in England to my certain knowlege, and forecasts are always to be taken as advice, not as gospel, in my book.

No, I've not flown much in Scotland (but have quite a bit in Snowdonia). I don't doubt the locals have been scud running in mountainous Scotland for ever and some have even survived decades of so doing. No doubt experience is an important factor where low cloud, high hills, VFR, and aeroplanes mix.

My point was aimed at the OP, who says he is not experienced. If you know the area well and how the local wx pans out and you have your 'outs' for when it doesn't do what you expected then fine.

Are there many wrecks on those hills? There is in Wales, in the Peak District (much tamer than Scotland), and even on the Wrekin (the only hill for miles around).

[cats_five]

Don't forget to look for 'mtw' on the met office wind charts. Mountain Wave - the stuff you had a brush with a few months back. If it's forecast use that low level around the mountains route.

RASPtableGM (http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/RASPtableGM8/RASPtableGM.html)

This is the website glider pilots use to work out if it's a wave day. You need to check in the morning of the day you plan to fly. Click the 'press for full parameter set' button and then select 'vertical velocity at 850mb'. Green & yellow strips, maybe with some red, = wave probably around. Easterly wave is showing right now.

RASP will also show if it's going to be thermic.

[dont overfil]

Surprisingly there are very few light AC wrecks in the hills in Scotland. Maybe because many Scottish pilots are familiar with the weather and the geography. On the other hand there are loads of military crash sites.

There are more cases of CFIT in England. It may be that the flatlanders of the south east don't think that much about hills then get caught out by a 600 ft bump in the scenery.

I agree scud running is not a great idea but the OP did state broken 3000ft + cloud base. I don't think the OP is that much of a beginner. Just unfamiliar with flying in Scotland. Judging by his many previous posts he is hungry to learn and seems determined not to be caught out by ignorance.

Edited to add; I would have thought the 11000ft + peaks in California will have had their own challenge for him but I suppose the weather has different characteristics.

D.O.

[piperboy84]

I would have thought the 11000ft + peaks in California will have had their own challenge for him but I suppose the weather has different characteristics.


Interesting, never really thought about that before, but perhaps I underestimated or was blissfully ignorant to the hazards of Southern California flying with the mountains etc. But it just seemed there that if a good flying day was forecast it STAYED a good flying day, I just get a gut instinct (rightly or wrongly) that flying in the Scottish highlands has more hazards and more surprises to throw at you. I remember many years ago on a driving visit to Oban with a California girl we decided to walk around the town but grabbed a quick drink in the pub while the rain cleared, we got half way thru our drink and the sun came out which prompted us to down the drinks and start walking, about 5 minutes into the walk it started pissing down so we returned to the pub, again half way thru the second drink the sun came out and not wanting to miss this opportunity we downed the second round and headed out, and yes you guessed it, it started pissing down again, I was living my own private version of Groundhog Day. And I think that is the issue, weather/conditions change quickly here in Scotland, perhaps its something to do with Scotland being a a small rocky outcropping on the tip of western Europe surrounded by 2 large bodies of water with there own weather systems. In california, I would think nothing of taking a 150hHP warrior and flying out off the Los Angeles basin and over the high deserts and mountain ranges to Vegas for the weekend or fly up to the ski resorts with fields in the 8000 ft level with surrounding mountains up to 12000ft, but when it comes to simple trips in Scotland like crossing to Oban I stress the hell out of myself, second guessing myself and capabilities in spite of the knowing the route and terrain very well from multiple holidays in the area when i was a kid. It is indeed a funny old thing !

[niceday2700classic]

When it comes to the old 'up or down' in iffy weather conditions, I've always thought that it's not often I'd rather fly into a mountain than a cloud...

[Maoraigh1]

it's not often I'd rather fly into a mountain than a cloud...
Very few if any pilots have flown into a mountain in daylight, without first having flown into a cloud.
If you're on mogas, you can't get a safe height. Several cfit AAIB reports refer to survivor reports of downdrafts pulling the aircraft down.
I stay low and watch the weather. Cloud at my level on a hill is a divert signal.

[cats_five]

...
Several cfit AAIB reports refer to survivor reports of downdrafts pulling the aircraft down.
...

Both curl-over and the down of a wave bar can make climbing impossible.

[gasax]

Are there many wrecks on those hills? There is in Wales, in the Peak District (much tamer than Scotland), and even on the Wrekin (the only hill for miles around).

As dont overfills says, there are a great number of military wrecks. Of the very few civi wrecks I can only think of one in the last 10 years that occured with a regular Scottish flyer - all the others were from down S'auf or foreign.

Perhaps that is the clue for piperboy84 - take it slowly, gain the experience and end up like most of us up here - concious of the weather, the topography and the terminal effect of cumulus granite!

[peterh337]

Why so many military wrecks?

[dont overfil]

Both curl-over and the down of a wave bar can make climbing impossible.

The only non Military VFR accident I can think of in recent years was a fatal flexwing accident last year. The official report has not been released yet but concensus is that he was caught in the curl over very close to the hill below the summit. Substantial MTW was forecast.

The most severe wave I have experienced was this year south of Newcastle. I estimate in excess of 800fpm although as usual it did not last long.

D.O.

[dont overfil]

Why so many military wrecks?

It is a busy training area and most of the accidents involve visiting aircraft.

A Tornado into a hill in Argyll I think two years ago.
Hercules into a hill near Pitlochry maybe 5 years ago.
Two USAF F15s into Ben Macdui about 10 years ago.

Thats just the ones I can remember off the top of my head.

D.O.

[mad_jock]

If you go up flying with any one of the veterans from the days of 18 airfields in the Moray Firth you can hardly fly past a hill without them recounting an aircraft going into them.

[peterh337]

Is that military low flying going wrong, or the result of people flying in IMC without modern (or working) navigation (classic CFIT)?

It beggars belief how the RAF (or USAF) was going to fight a war with Russia, given the terrain to the east of here. Maybe they would agree with the enemy to fly in VMC only?

[mad_jock]

Mostly gone wrong Peter,

All the accident reports are out now. As usual there are a collection of reasons which caused the accidents.

And our Mil boys are flying anything but modern Navigation equipment on the old work horses.

[gasax]

IIRC the Hercules incident was a low flying mishap, the other mil ones were IMC. The majority of the wrecks that I have 'spotted' from the air (both military and civil) were in IMC - so yes the war starts today - but let's wait until we can see where we are going!

The civil crashes - 2 from down s'auf and one a Norwegian (who really should have known better!) in my area, all occured during IMC conditions.

FWIW two Wednesay's ago I got a brief period of 1100 fpm up from level flight. My gliding pals were getting to 16,000 ft plus from a 2,000 aerotow....

As I said work out where the rotor and turbulence will be.

[dont overfil]

I suppose the majority ended the flight in IMC conditions but if IFR had been planned from the start the mountains would have been well below.

Most of the accidents seem to occur when the pilot blurs the line between IFR and VFR. Fast jets in particular do this because it is an essential part of their training and they should have the equipment to make it possible.

I seem to remember the accident with the F 15s was due to a combination of an iffy database (must have been Jepp:\) and a misunderstanding of controllers responsibilities.

D.O.

[Maoraigh1]

The C130 was more than 5 years ago. I think it was VMC, a practice special forces equipment drop for a similar position in Bosnia, during the war there. My memory is that, (very unusually), the accident report did not blame the pilots, but the performance data they were using.
A local pilot C152 accident on Liathach could have been turbulence/downdraft - they were far too high to be scud running. He was flying a hired aircraft, with much a poorer climb rate compared to his own aircraft, which was in maintenance.
The Mail plane southbound at night from Inverness hit the hill just south of the airfield (Carn nan Tri Tigharnan?), over 20 years ago. It took a days to find it.

[Shaggy Sheep Driver]

I remember a Shackleton that, shortly before the type was due to be retired, hit a hill on a Scottish island just off the west coast with all crew killed (can't remember which island).

The irony was that the day had been glorious. On the BBC evening weather they showed a satellite picture. The entire UK was almost totally cloud free - except for that Scottish island.

[dash6]

Back to Peerh's earlier post.I thought it was still ok to fly VFR on top of cloud in VMC. ie 1000 ft vertically from cloud. When did that change?

[mad_jock]

Aircraft Index (http://www.aircrashsites-scotland.co.uk/aircraft_index.htm)


Might be an interest to some.