Increase in commercial pilots needed?

[blackberry1]

Hi

My first post, so sorry in the wrong section, anyway hello

An industry forecast that nearly half a million new airline pilots will be needed worldwide over the next 20 years as airlines expand their fleets has raised safety concerns that airlines will hire lower caliber pilots as they struggle to fill slots.

Likewise, Boeing predicts 601,000 new aircraft maintenance technicians will be needed over the same period, with greatest demand 243,500 technicians in the Asia-Pacific region. An estimated 92,500 new technicians will North America.

Could the UK grab a slice of this market for training world class pilots and technicians.

[Bealzebub]

This is an old report and has been discussed many times on PPRuNe. You can find one example from two years ago here. (http://www.pprune.org/interviews-jobs-sponsorship/427804-hope-future.html#post5940317)

My response was then, and still is:
5 countries: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and the USA account for roughly 48% of the worlds population and that is broadly where the main expansion is forecast. Good news if you are a citizen of one of those countries looking to train for one of these careers in the next two decades. However take out a proportional 48% and that million is now down to 520,000.

Pilots and engineers. If you are interested in the former and assuming a rather generous even split, that whittles the figure down by a further 50% to 260,000.

Of the remaining 190 countries (some don't count, and some count more than others in aviation demographic terms,) but for the point of illustration share out the remaining number equally, and you are now down to an average of 1368

Over how many years? 20! That is about 68 a year. Not that stunning really, and these are optimistic figures from a party in whose commercial interest it is to talk up the market.

Of course 68 is no more accurate in any one domain, than a million is as a glitzy number. Rather like winning a million on the lottery being tempered by the fact that you have to share it with 14,706 other winners as well. Statistics are magical versatile things, and rather like beauty, are very much in the eye of the beholder.

[blackberry1]

Thanks for the reply

so simply then UK pilots could not fill the extra for instance in the US because they only employ US pilots? same in China and Brazil?

I am not being sarcastic, just asking the question

[Globalstream]

Excellent break down Bealzebub

BB

You are correct, for visa reasons that everyone understands, for licensing reasons that render pilot certificates invalid on foreign registered aircraft and lastly demographics, there will be relatively little flow of aircrew between nations.

Western European pilots, many of us, and I dare say Americans, Canadians and Australasians too, are increasingly disinterested in the pay and conditions offered in second and third world countries. I have been looking for a new contract for several months after thinking I would just go to China.

As it turns out, many of these jobs are not commutable and after many talks, I concluded the remuneration did not come close to compensating for the displacement of my family, the poor health environment, lack of safe recreational space and the questionable licensing, training and operations. I thought there was little chance others were doing the same, but daily I see the same urgent, same day cries for Captains in China. I`m obviously not the only one who would rather pass.

It cannot be overstated to anyone with an interest in these forecasts- there will be zero need for additional pilots in the West for years. Misrepresentations of pilot demand by Boeing, CTC, OAA and the like should not be confused with jobs that offer stable, well paid careers. There may be a demand for lower paid labour, (hence P2F and psuedo cadet programs) but it should not ever be confused with the aggregate supply of pilots.

A very brief look at the Terms and Endearment forum will possibly help you understand the reality. Now engineers could well be a different story, but I'm not qualified to comment on that career path.

[Adios]

Bealzebub,

If your figure of 68 pilots per country were meaningful, not only would Cabair and PTC have gone bust long ago, so would have CTC, OAA, Stella, CAE Multi-Flight, BCFT and many others. Any one of the big schools trained well in excess of 68 pilots a year and some do four times that many. If only 68 a year from the above schools were getting jobs, we'd not be having this discussion because they wouldn't exist. Bear in mind that the growth forecast from Boeing and Airbus haven't even happened yet, so you probably should chop the 68 down to 30-40, making it even less like there'd be any FTOs left. You too have manipulated statistics.

While I agree that Boeing has painted an optimistic picture, the 260,000 pilots for the 190 countries making up 52% of the global population, divided by 20 years is 13,000 per year and this explains why there are some rather large FTOs churning out 200-300 pilots a year and getting most of them into employment.

[Pittslover]

I have heard a school in the Netherlands is producing 500 pilots each year:ooh: That's probably enough for the whole of Europe.

[Bealzebub]

If your figure of 68 pilots per country were meaningful, not only would Cabair and PTC have gone bust long ago, so would have CTC, OAA, Stella, CAE Multi-Flight, BCFT and many others. Any one of the big schools trained well in excess of 68 pilots a year and some do four times that many. If only 68 a year from the above schools were getting jobs, we'd not be having this discussion because they wouldn't exist. Bear in mind that the growth forecast from Boeing and Airbus haven't even happened yet, so you probably should chop the 68 down to 30-40, making it even less like there'd be any FTOs left. You too have manipulated statistics.

Yes, you have rather missed the point I think! But thank you for pointing that out. :D

[Journey Man]

Adios,

Bealzebub's example interprets that theoretical demand into a per country demand for flightcrew. And, as Bealzebub states, its a dated report projecting an optimistic view of the market from a self interested viewpoint. A demand that commercial training organisations are keen to perpetuate also.

The amount of people being issued with a CPL in no way reflects jobs or demand, purely the output of FTOs. A CPL has never been a guarantee of a job. Your post serves to highlight that the vast majority undertaking training at this time simply do not understand this fact and interpret any report as justification for pushing ahead and entering an industry at a time of unprecedented stagnation.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Here's another way to spin the Boeing report ...

Here at my employer, Vietnam Airlines, the expansion is massive - we have between 120 and 150 brand new CPL cadets per year arriving every year for most of the rest of this decade. A new A320 arriving every month for the next few years, we've got big orders in for A350s, B787s, and A380s.

The plan is to progressively replace all the western expat contract pilot with locals, as the new cadets join and become more experienced. They will have phased out all expat F/O's by the end of this year and they plan to have no western captains within 5 years.

A more-or-less variation of that plan is in place at just about every airline in the far east and middle east - including traditional bastions of expat jobs like Cathay and Singapore. Replacing expensive expats with cheaper locals. Same story all over India, some of the Gulf airlines as well.

And guess what, when me and my several thousand colleagues out here get displaced, we'll be coming back to our home countries looking for whatever we can get in terms of flying jobs - just like you guys - except most of us have many thousands of hours of Boeing and Airbus time.

My point is, that on one level, sure the expansion is happening but on another level, it's actually a bad thing for you first world wannabes.

The sad truth guys is that in the old world (Europe / Australia / USA), aviation has never been harder or more expensive to get into at the ground floor level and pilot wages have been in real-terms decline for decades now. Banks aren't lending money to student pilots and training costs are sky high. Traditional flag carrier airlines are under massive pressure to cut costs or die. Recruitment is pretty much non existent except for the profit-centre-for-the-airline schemes like CTC and Ryanair F/O things (hesitate to call them "jobs").

Don't know what the answer is, but any flying school marketer who trots out that Boeing report needs a good smack in the chops i.m.o. :ugh::ugh::ugh:

[Globalstream]

Adios, forgive me, but you can't honestly believe the output of pseudo cadet programs, the supply, represents demand? The demand is for cheap temporary labour and that is all training companies are gratifying.

As journey man said, there is no corellation between cpl/ir issuances and stable employment. Flexi crew and finite contracts are not sustainable or worthwhile to young men trying to plan, not just a career, but a life.

You can't live at home all your life, you can't chase all around the world for every crumb of work for very long and sooner or later you meet a girl or just tire of rambling to find you're 30 and still living like an eighteen year old in some undesirable place and accommodation. Worthy women will laugh at your Beta ambition and ability to provide.

For the most part we have one shot to found a career and a young person would have to be a fool to ignore the wealth of evidence that shows fortune plays too greater role for comfort in flying.

For anyone starting out or researching, grab life by the soft and danglies, save the 100 K and put all that effort into founding a real career and maximizing your income and fun. As I said, save the military and the few real cadet programs (where genuine ownership is taken by the airline), the risk reward ratio is not acceptable to a thinking man. Life is short, place your bets wisely.

[MCDU2]

Another factor to take into account is what I term a "job" and what many of the newbies out of flying school actually end up getting.

For example if you swim in a holding pool and are offered a 3-6 month flexi contract paying peanuts where you are struggling to cover your debt payments and making ends meet, is that considered a job?

Also to pay for a type rating and be paid a block hour and then find your hours decrease year on year is that a job. Nope its a tenuous contract arrangement which could cease at any time.

Neither of the above could be considered proper employment in my opinion . Slave labour would be a more apt description.

Still I am sure that the above 2 examples would feature highly in any figures for those successfully gaining employment in the industry. The vast majority of people are getting these gigs out of flight school here in the EU and not proper employment. At a guess maybe 10-20% of those who gain a job each year probably get them with traditional carriers offering the benefits of proper employment eg: employment law, pension, LOL, holiday, sick pay etc etc.

[No RYR for me]

I have heard a school in the Netherlands is producing 500 pilots each year

Nope in the best of times all the Dutch schools together did 700 to 800 at most this was including KLM, CAE, Stella, Martinair, etc. Since 2008 the schools have halved their output or even less. On top of that one of the two banks stopped lending for flight training and the schools they were lending to are expected to close or become a rich boys flying club.... So 200 a year is more like it... :\

[Pittslover]

700 - 800 is a huge a number for a small country like the netherlands. Dont get me wrong i think people with passion for flying should get a chance to join this profession but so many pilots for a small country is ridiculous. I think that shows also where the problem lies in this profession the schools are producing to many pilots these days and not only in the netherlands but all over europe.

[KAG]

Blackberry: if you remove India and China, the numbers go down dramatically (Asia pacific accounting ALONE (!) for almost half of the new orders in the forecast...).

If you look at Europe and the US only, it goes down further. However in northern and eastern Europe (even down to south like Turkia, where european licence are accepted) there is some room for growth in aviation apparently if we look at what's happening today.

In the US aviation growth is extremely low and the forecasts are not great at all, up north in Canada it is much better however.

Concerning training, well you are right, there is definitely some market, and training chinese cadets (what I was doing many years ago, what later gave me my break in the asian airline market) is giving its share of aviation jobs in some academies and flight schools.

However 2 things:
1-China already has an aviation school, with close to 5000 new students every year, one of the biggest aviation school in the world.
2-those forecasts concern the 20 next years guessing China growth will keep the todays' pace, which is over optimistic if you ask me. Right now it looks great here in Asia, I admit that, but 20 years from now? Many things could happen, and believing that (economical) growth will remain a 8 or 10% a year during all that time seems like believing in the wonderful world of Alice. Hope I am wrong.

[No RYR for me]

700 - 800 is a huge a number for a small country like the netherlands. But that's why it's now about 200 a year... :rolleyes:

[Akrep]

:}that is still to much

[cefey]

When you discuss "numbers" and "statistics", dont forget such think, as how many pilots is off with retirement?
Do you really think 13 pilots a year is enough for UK? Or even BA or Ryanair?!

Sure, maybe those reports from Boeing is "one sided", but the way you try to turn it around isnt any better.

[Luke SkyToddler]

Yeah that's right Cefey. Why, you only have to look at the state of the current job market and read these pages, to conclude that Boeing was right, that the market is booming and there are thousands of jobs available for newly minted pilots.

Anyone who blasphemes the holy Boeing Report by pointing out such things as the :mad:ing obvious evidence of their own eyes and ears, is clearly a heretic :D

[break_break]

Go easy on the kids Luke :E
The kids believe there's a shot among the odds, they will find ways to buy any idea Boeing is selling.
I mean, when you read newbies arguing in other forums that it's perfectly acceptable to be charged a fee for filing an application, pay their way half way round the globe, and still think that the job prospect will be great in due time. Let's not kill the hope for them, everyone deserves a lifeline, in this case a mere hope while Boeing and Airbus are praying hard that ignorant kids and their parents will continue to shell out savings to subsidize the market glutted with jobless pilots who will continue to drive T & Cs down south.
Sad news is, there's no stopping this, and let's brace for more.

[billboard]

I have met so many unemployed pilots here in India and i have heard "why did i join this field" umpteen number of times. I am providing links to articles in some prominent Indian newspapers. Also provided are excerpts from these articles.

Trained pilots fail to land a career - Times Of India (http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-05-30/mumbai/29599803_1_trainee-pilots-expatriate-pilots-indian-pilots)

Trained pilots fail to land a career

Disappointed, many of these pilots are working in call centres to repay their loans.

Asked about the UPWA, the director-general of civil aviation, E K Bharat Bhushan, said the problem of unemployment among trained Indian pilots was colossal.

Many UPWA members had taken huge education loans to go abroad for their training. "We have pilots who have trained from academies in India, Philippines, USA, etc. Their training has cost them Rs 18-20 lakh. All of them are jobless," said a member, who got his CPL in 2009

The Hindu : Cities / Bangalore : Wannabe pilots now working in call centres (http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/bangalore/article3384587.ece)

Wannabe pilots now working in call centres

Abhishek has now joined a call centre in Bangalore. With a salary nowhere near that of a pilot, he has no idea how he will repay his loan.

With their dreams in tatters, they have become objects of pity among friends and relatives. Many have left home and gone to other cities, mainly to avoid ridicule.

Abhishek said his salary of Rs. 15,000 at the call centre is not enough to repay the loan. “The EMI works out to around Rs. 40,000 for a loan of Rs. 25 lakh.”

If many pilots are working overtime at call centres, the families of some are selling property to repay debts.

I regularly meet people who are depressed because they are unable to pay back the loans they took for their flight training. A majority of them do not deserve any sympathies because they must not have done adequate market research before spending loads of their parents' money.

It is funny that newbies often choose to believe aircraft manufacturers and flight schools when they predict a good job market in future. Off course they will make those predictions. Their business depends on it. Are you going to join a flight school if their representative tells you that a majority of CPL holders never get to work as professional pilots!?
Also the greater the number of qualified pilots there will be in the market, the lesser the airlines will have to pay the few ones they employ. That lowers the cost structures of the airlines and so their tickets are cheaper. Cheaper tickets lead to a greater number of people to be able to afford an air ticket creating a greater demand for aircraft and thus benefiting their manufacturers(Boeing in this case);)

From the view point of freshly minted pilots in developing countries, why should airlines in their country employ expats(usually from developed countries) for jobs that are at the top of the job pyramid(read TRE/TRIs) when they themselves cannot get work permit to work even as a lowly paid flight instructor in developed countries? As a result there is immense pressure from unemployed pilots in developing countries to dispense with the expats and get the FOs employed with airlines to move up the chain thus creating opportunities for them. So like someone said earlier, if you are a newbie from a developed country, its going be especially tough. :uhoh: