How many times does it take the Met office to get it right?

I mean, I was at the local airfield yesterday, having booked 6hrs in the R2160, with high hopes of getting some flying, considering Metoffice's weather report ("Broken clouds with sunny intervals") the previous night.

Well, get to the airfield...

Winds: 243/11
Clouds: Overcast 1700
Visibility: 3000m

Oh! right, they got it wrong...AGAIN.

Come 1000Z, a fax comes through...

"FACSIMILE FAX"
"METOFFICE UK" blah blah blah

"All local mist in your area will be cleared by 1230Z"

Yehaw! can't wait till 1230Z!

Come 1230Z...

Winds: 263/13
Clouds: Broken 2600
Visibility: 3500m

okkkkkkkk we'll give it 5 minutes...

another 5 minutes

another 5 minutes

...

..

.

Ok, 1600Z...still 3K vis, let's go home.

METOFFICE, PLEASE GET IT RIGHT?! Don't just pretend, or guess..!


Has me made my point?

Rgds
Ben

A forecast is a forecast......and an actual is an actual.

We've all been there and it's frustrating, but predicting the weather isn't exactly simple... :rolleyes:

Like others have said, that is just life I'm afraid.

Predicting the weather is a most complex science. There is still so much about the weather humans do not fully understand.

I studied MET for quite some time (didn't become a weather man in the end, chose to pursue a job where a sunny office was 90% certain :cool: ).

But in fact we probably understand less about the weather than any other part of our global environment.

Also I notice your location is Yorkshire? Well I did much of my training "as a lad" up at Leeds Bradford and at times it seemed to me the MET office knew nothing about forecasting! But sometimes I think we fail to appreciate how changeable this temperate climate in which we reside really is.

So don't diss the weather man, eventually you realise they are really just there to help you out.

Try to remember. Met is an art and not a science!!:)

PP,

From where did you plan to fly from on the 2nd?? I've just looked at the actuals for EGNM (Leeds Bradford) covering the period you specified. They had a south-easterly light becoming mod in the afternoon with vis poor AM (1000-2000M) but better PM (4500-7000M). Cloud base was poor again AM but finally started to clear up a bit at 1350Z. Afternoon cloud SCT015 BKN060.


regards

CM

I once got a different METAR from the metoffice website and the ATC at the field... Pretty similar... but very confusing!
Rest of the time they do a great job though. After all, any idiot can do atmospheric physics... right?! :D

"Ah yes, of course there will be a clearance by 1000L."

How many times have you heard that whilst sitting around waiting to launch?!

"Blue, TEMPO green, prob 40 red...":D :D :D

Only kidding - I know it's difficult but the boys up here in the "real" north really do quite well!

AA

Piperpilot,

Look on the bright side, sometimes when they forecast £(*&% weather and they get it wrong it turns out nice! :)

But unfortunately you've already decided not to go to the airfield :(

SD

PP,
as CALLSIGN METMAN said, we do try and get it right, but as others have pointed out, getting cloud and visibility right in anticyclonic conditions is notoriousely difficult. We do try our best, but at times mother nature has the last laugh.:rolleyes:

For the record, many of us METMEN/WOMEN are also pilots, and we find it as frustrating as you at times, even with "inside" knowledge. :mad:

All I can say, is we are still involved in long term research into this problem, when I flew on Snoopy, it was one of the projects we did. We are getting to understand the physics behind it better, but it has made us realise there is still much to learn. We will get there, but in the meantime, sorry if we get it wrong on the odd occasion. :confused: