carlisle/southend

[mikkie4]

if stobarts plans for carlisle airport get the go ahead flights from carlisle to southend would DEP CAX 07.50 ARR SEN 08.15 DPT SEN 08.40 ARR CAX 09.50. This is a proposed scheduale using a Carlisle based ATR 42.But depends on wether carlisle district council are willing or wanting any flights.with the ATR based at CAX it could fly to dublin and possibly connect with flights to the USA

[onyxcrowle]

Is this a real proposal by them ? I thought the planning had been withdrawn

[mikkie4]

News comes fron AER Arran,they must be in talks with the council and stobarts(didnt stobarts stop aer arran from going bust)And put up money for the new ATRs?.All we can do is watch and wait

[Phileas Fogg]

70 minutes in one direction yet only 25 minutes in t'other direction?

[onyxcrowle]

Is there a terminal ? Is the runway up to scratch. ? ILS?

[mikkie4]

Typing error should have read CAX 07.00 SEN 08.15 SEN 08.40 CAX 09.55 CAX15.35 SEN 16.50 SEN 17.15 CAX 18.30

[davidjohnson6]

Carlisle-Euston takes 3h25m on a train which runs every hour. Carlisle is not a huge city and is surrounded by large swathes of countryside with 2 large national parks nearby

May I ask what the proposed customer base is for this new CAX-SEN route ?

[cornishsimon]

Are stobarts still trying to use Carlisle for freight ?


cs

[rowly6339]

The plan for Carlisle is to upgrade the runway, build a small new terminal and run a few pax flights and few cargo flights apart from that the rest of the site will be used by the haulage division with a large warehouse build too.

[SWBKCB]

Suggest you have a look at the Carlisle thread for the up to date position. In summary, Stobart's have applied for planning permission to upgrade/redevelop the airport but this has yet to be granted - and no, the redevelopment doesn't include an ILS. As part of the planning process, Aer Arran have written a letter to the council saying they will fly to Southend and Dublin.

[Expressflight]

I would suggest that by the time the CAX infrastucture is capable of supporting the route all the ATR-42s will have been disposed of. In other words it will be several years before if could become a reality and I assume the suggested timetable has been published now solely in support of the current planning application.

[NorthSouth]

DEP CAX 07.50 ARR SEN 08.15 DPT SEN 08.40 ARR CAX 09.50

Typing error should have read CAX 07.00 SEN 08.15 SEN 08.40 CAX 09.55 CAX15.35 SEN 16.50 SEN 17.15 CAX 18.30

That's a long error :)

[jabird]

Might I suggest that these timings were purely indicative of a sample schedule, should planning be approved, and therefore they have no relevance to any actual service, which will depend on the relevant operator willingness and airport cooperation at the time.

I second what dj6 has already said - utterly pointless to fly to deepest Essex when going up against a train service that is largely under-used.

Remember - this route would have to survive on its own merits, whereas the train will continue to exist regardless, as Carlisle is on the way to somewhere else. Much easier to take advantage of that face and stop pretending people will want to fly to somewhere and then spend an hour to get into London to save what - an hour?

[SWBKCB]

Stobarts want to develop CAX + Council want London service + Stobarts own both RE and SEN = letter from RE saying "we want to fly SEN-CAX".

No other logic applies.

[jabird]

No other logic applies.

Apart from the logic that asks the question "will this route actually make any money".

Stobart are a trucking company who have got into airports - that follows logic to a point.

Connecting those airports just because they own both of them sounds more like the economics of the mad house to me, and the fact the council want it doesn't mean it is going to work either.

Equally, the airport / airline attempt at vertical integration is often tried, seldom a success.

[SWBKCB]

You're trying to apply the wrong kind of logic.

Stobarts want planning permission for a road haulage depot at CAX from the council - the only way they'll get it is by tieing it into the development of the airport.

The council want an air service to London (because it will bring 'inward investment' and 'tourists' and will 'put us on the map').

Stobarts own an airport in London and an airline.

Hence the airline owned by Stobarts sends a letter to the council saying it will fly between the two airports owned by Stobarts if the council gives planning permission.

"will this route actually make any money" is irrelevant, it's about getting planning permission.

It's that simple.

[ConstantFlyer]

Carlisle-Euston takes 3h25m on a train which runs every hour. Carlisle is not a huge city and is surrounded by large swathes of countryside with 2 large national parks nearby. May I ask what the proposed customer base is for this new CAX-SEN route ?

davidjohnson6 - Let's also look at it the other way round. Southend to London's an hour by train; crossing London to Euston takes the best part of another hour. People from Essex travelling to The Lake District, Northumberland, and the Cumbria/Lancashire M6 corridor, as well as South West Scotland and the Borders could use this flight and avoid adding to the congestion of London in rush hour.

[onyxcrowle]

It might work well though . I read that there was talk of trying to open Walney Airport for scheduled flights . So perhaps there is a small market for Cumbria and south Scotland to use it at Carlisle

[NorthSouth]

talk of trying to open Walney Airport for scheduled flightswhat, like on this esteemed rumour network you mean? Must be happening then. :)
NS

[jabird]

"will this route actually make any money" is irrelevant, it's about getting planning permission.

It's that simple.

Agreed - that is a totally different kettle of fish, although of course routes can vanish much more quickly than buildings can. If the new route forms part of a binding Section 106, will this be the first time a commercial UK airport operator has been forced to add flights, rather than to have a cap on flights?

Let's also look at it the other way round. Southend to London's an hour by train; crossing London to Euston takes the best part of another hour. People from Essex travelling to The Lake District, Northumberland, and the Cumbria/Lancashire M6 corridor, as well as South West Scotland and the Borders could use this flight and avoid adding to the congestion of London in rush hour.

Yes, of course they could, but the initial question was about whether or not they would, and whether they would do so in enough numbers to sustain the route.

You could apply the same logic to LGW or LTN - each of the "London" airports has its own local catchment area in addition to the parts of London that are near it (including Stratford / Docklands etc for SEN), but the core catchment is still central London.

You might look at INV and say it too has a large catchment around it. However, even with significantly less population than CAX, INV can sustain multiple routes to London because it only has one direct train per day, and is at the end of the route, not a stop which is on the way to somewhere else - infact somewheres elses if we count the daily VT to Waverley - and ditto for why a route to BHX would be unsustainable, given the passing XC rail traffic.

So let's assume there is a binding requirement for the route to operate, and it can even get reasonable loads on some of the weekday morning services, but yields are poor - just as they are if you compare VT prices to Glasgow with those to Manchester.

Do they just continue to run the route at a loss? What if they sell RE? There is always going to be a get out clause.

[Fairdealfrank]

Will it be cheaper than the train?

Train vs. air again (yawn), it's not a question of either/or. Realisticly, the more travel options the better. Will it work? One way to find out!

Good luck to them!

[Expressflight]

As far as the viability of any particular route is concerned, my experience is that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the success or otherwise of any but the most obvious candidates, unless there is recent historic evidence to go by. Sometimes an unlikely link between two city pairs can achieve commercially acceptable returns while another may look more promising, yet fails to perform. There are so many factors involved that sometimes you just have to try it and see.

In the case of CAX-SEN at least the costs of establishing the route can be minimised due to the dual ownership of the airports by Stobart and its shareholding in Aer Arann.

[Yak97]

Euroair?...

[Tagron]

I believe the company was called Euroair, or something very similar.

Famously one of the television channels (C4 I think) ran a comedy programme at that time which included a spoof on airline sexist advertising with the slogan "Fly Euroair and you can sleep with our air hostesses". Evidently the programme makers were unaware that an airline by that name actually existed. It seemed to cause some consternation among the Euroair cabin crews.

[NorthSouth]

Probably gave a boost to their bookings though :)

[compton3bravo]

Yes, I can confirm it was Euroair using an HS.748 (Budgie) on the route to Heathrow from Carlisle. My late lamented(?) boss went on a jolly in 1988 I think but cannot be sure about the date. When he returned to the office he said he would give it a few months which proved correct as he thought the catchment area around Carlisle was not sufficient to justify the service and that was when it went into Heathrow. Unfortunately I have to agree with him even more so now when the London terminus is Southend (nothing against Southend mind you just trying to be realistic).

[vulcanised]

I wonder what the ratio is of people who would choose LHR over SEN and vice versa? (talking domestic flight).

It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen.

[Aero Mad]

Unfortunately I have to agree with him even more so now when the London terminus is Southend (nothing against Southend mind you just trying to be realistic).

Bear in mind that hundreds of thousands of people fly annually now who didn't in the 1980s - growth of air travel generally may well make this route viable on AT4 equipment.

[WHBM]

Carlisle has been attempted a couple of times; Autair did so in the late 1960s as well, which also like Euroair's later effort, extended to Dundee; a sort of chaining all the least likely points together.

There's some business traffic on offer to the Cumbrian industrial coast (Workington/Whitehaven), which are otherwise an impossibility to get to from London in a sensible time by any means. Went with a colleague to Whitehaven and he asked me what was the closest airport to there; was not too amused when I said Ronaldsway, because he actually looked it up :)

I believe that Scot Airways some years ago looked at a Do328 service from London City to Carlisle; better aircraft (smaller, cheaper, faster) and a better destination than one down at the wrong end of Essex. If they felt it was not worthwhile I wonder what has changed.

[tonker]

To not build on the airport because of its location is ridiculous. If you apply that logic they should shut the M6 down. Or you could think of it this way. Within 25 miles of Southend you have some of the richest people on the planet all looking for a great getaway.

Beautiful countryside, 2 national parks and Hadrians wall on its doorstep.Hope it works.

[jabird]

As far as the viability of any particular route is concerned, my experience is that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the success or otherwise of any but the most obvious candidates, unless there is recent historic evidence to go by.

We do have some relevant historic evidence - STN-NCL U2 gone, LHR-MME BE gone. Did BE have a pop at LGW-MME couple of years back, or was that just LBA? Either way, short lived.

If the proposal was for LCY, that would at least be much closer to the city / East End / Dockland, but given the costs involved, where would the yields come from?

FDF - I agree choice is good, but the WCML isn't going anywhere. There is one scenario which could help the route - as VT bosses know that every few minutes they can shave off the EUS-GC train time, they will relish any opportunity to remove stops. Afaik, the fastest current train just stops at Carlisle. With HS2, most stops above Preston would almost certainly go, but that isn't happening until 2026,7,8...............

The irony could be that the removal of the Lake District stops makes flying to Carlisle more attractive, even if the train would still stop there!

[SWBKCB]

LHR-MME was BD

[jabird]

LHR-MME was BD

I know, I was referring to whether or not BE did LGW-MME. I don't think they did?

[Tagron]

But the whole point surely is that no airline would be contemplating CAX-SEN or CAX-anywhere else but for the Stobart involvement. Would Aer Arann be interested without that involvement ? Of course not. They would want to deploy their resources on routes that would appear to offer a more certain chance of a satisfactory return.

So the question that arises is what degree of support are Stobarts offering to RE to make the operation economically attractive to RE ? Stobarts will already have to support a loss making airport whose losses will only increase once it is improved to a standard that will permit scheduled air services. Will they want to underwrite a loss-making route too ? Or will they view the contribution from the route as potentially improving the overall finances ? These questions I guess will be viewed in the light of the economics of the distribution centre, and only Stobarts will know the answer to that.

Or is it all window dressing that will disappear if and when planning permission for the haulage depot is obtained ?

The planning authority could demand a legally binding agreement about the development and operation of the airport but they surely cannot compel an airline to operate from it.

[SWBKCB]

Or is it all window dressing that will disappear if and when planning permission for the haulage depot is obtained ? :D:ok::D:ok::D:ok::D

Ah - somebody gets it...

[learjet50]

Is this a Joke

Biggest load of tosh I ever seen come on guys



NO WAY


a pipe dream

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "I wonder what the ratio is of people who would choose LHR over SEN and vice versa? (talking domestic flight)."

Depends on where you live. For me its LHR everytime.

Quote: "It seems to me that if the Council and a small number of nimbys can be persuaded then there might be something beneficial to all concerned waiting to happen."

Maybe, let's hope so!

Quote: "We do have some relevant historic evidence - STN-NCL U2 gone, LHR-MME BE gone. Did BE have a pop at LGW-MME couple of years back, or was that just LBA? Either way, short lived.

LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.

Quote: "If the proposal was for LCY, that would at least be much closer to the city / East End / Dockland, but given the costs involved, where would the yields come from?"

And if the proposal was for LHR, there would be connectivity to the world. Give it a chance, one has to start somewhere!

Quote: "FDF - I agree choice is good, but the WCML isn't going anywhere. There is one scenario which could help the route - as VT bosses know that every few minutes they can shave off the EUS-GC train time, they will relish any opportunity to remove stops. Afaik, the fastest current train just stops at Carlisle. With HS2, most stops above Preston would almost certainly go, but that isn't happening until 2026,7,8..............."

There is one weekday train/day that does London to Glasgow with just one stop, and takes 4 hours 8 minutes. The stop is Preston. Curiously, there is no equivelant in the opposite direction.

Forget about HS2, it's unlikely to be built, and even if it is, it's going nowhere near Carlisle or Glasgow.

[jabird]

LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots.

Yes, but since then BA have restored LBA. Any suggestion they will bring MME back?

And if the proposal was for LHR, there would be connectivity to the world. Give it a chance, one has to start somewhere!

Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX.

Population of "wider" CAX = 100, Cumbria 500k, a few more in D&G. Yet there is also little evidence of serious yield generators, plus the fact all these other places don't have a realistic train alternative.

Granted, 3h25 isn't lightning fast, but most Marseille-Paris trains take that sort of time, and the train still has 75%+ of that (far larger) market.


Forget about HS2, it's unlikely to be built, and even if it is, it's going nowhere near Carlisle or Glasgow.

I was just painting a scenario in which the route might work. Remove the train service, and Carlisle becomes a much more viable route.

If HS2 does get built as planned, come 2026, the new "classic compatible" trains will be slower than the Pendolini above Lichfield. Thus there will be huge pressure to cut stops, especially given the claim that the train will take 81% of the Scotland market!

That is obviously way into the future. In the meantime, don't be surprised to see more Lake District region stops being removed. Yet even if this does happen, and an hourly Carlisle stop becomes two hourly, the train still wins on frequency.

[Aero Mad]

LHR-MME was one of the routes dropped by BD in 2009 along with INV, JER, and LBA. Probably has more to do with office politics, with LH calling the shots. Yes, but since then BA have restored LBA. Any suggestion they will bring MME back?
Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX.

Remember that DND only has 1400m of runway so BA could only operate A319s on restricted loads, which I don't see happening. INV would certainly next on the hitlist of domestic destinations (if indeed there is one), followed by MME. I think CAX is perhaps too much of a long shot; catchment really is quite small due to the geography.

Regarding the offshores, GCI will never have its LHR link back with BA again due to runway restrictions... a Cityflyer (E70 or leased S20) service from LCY might well work. JER probably won't see its LHR link restored due to the LGW operation being so well established - although I could see that happening if they choose not to replace the 737 operation (unlikely in itself)... then an LHR-JER route might well be restarted.

Ultimately it is clear that BA is only interested in using slots on domestics which will really profit them. It's hard to doubt that LBA-LHR will be a success; the BE route from LGW had nowhere near the connection possibilities (there were no BA codeshares on BE routes out of LGW at that time) and still achieved reasonable loads - beancounters at Exeter stopped it and the DUS route because of punitive charges against smaller aircraft (DH4s, AT7s) at LGW. Apologies for that little digression...

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "Yes, but since then BA have restored LBA. Any suggestion they will bring MME back?"

Good question. This one isn't so clear-cut, BA are at NCL, BD wasn't.

Quote: "Of course there would, but join the queue behind INV, the offshores, and even DND is a FAR bigger city than CAX."

Agreed, there are some ahead in the queue before CAX, unless.....

Quote: "I was just painting a scenario in which the route might work. Remove the train service, and Carlisle becomes a much more viable route."

Exactly, the HS2-capable trains will be "slow" north of Birmingham, they will need to compensate for this. They are also going the long way round (via Birmingham), so need to compensate for this too. So yes, stops will be eliminated.

Quote: "That is obviously way into the future. In the meantime, don't be surprised to see more Lake District region stops being removed. Yet even if this does happen, and an hourly Carlisle stop becomes two hourly, the train still wins on frequency."

The removal of the Lake District region stops and the reduction of Carlisle stops makes an air link more viable.

Yes, the train clearly wins on frequency, but does it win on time? Yes, at present it does for those just going to London.

But does the train win on price?

[jabird]

It's hard to doubt that LBA-LHR will be a success

Actually, I wasn't expecting to see any of the shorter routes coming back, given how LHR charges / APD / faster train services kill most of the centre to centre market, and that Leeds is still not Manchester.

So in that respect, well done BA, good luck with the new route, may it be a great success.

The other thing with LBA is that it is a busy enough airport, but few feeders into other hubs - no AF / CDG, no LH / FRA. How much business demand is there for the M4 corridor area ex LBA? That is where the train is rubbish.

Again, we can only speculate on future infrastructure, but with a 3rd, short runway at LHR, then maybe CAX would be one to consider - but still long after INV / NQY etc.

So DND could take a 318 or E70/95? Given the existing LCY route, would BA move around a/c just to serve this and maybe one or two other places (GCI)?

[Aero Mad]

So DND could take a 318 or E70/95? Given the existing LCY route, would BA move around a/c just to serve this and maybe one or two other places (GCI)?

Ah ha. You forget the dreaded unions, who wouldn't allow it just to be sticks in the mud. Otherwise Cityflyer could expand through the roof with 195s and replace the 737 operation at Gatwick rather smoothly.

[jabird]

The removal of the Lake District region stops and the reduction of Carlisle stops makes an air link more viable.

Yes, but if the removal is done to win more business to Glasgow, and suddenly they start losing bucketloads of pax at CAX, they would just put some of the stops back!

But does the train win on price?

Well we don't have sample air fares to compare.

But I was looking at doing Dumfries to Coventry at the end of next month, and that one train a day that stops at Rugby (thus giving me a Virgin rather than an XC fare) is about half the price of the others - £15 in total!

I don't buy the argument that planes are cheaper for domestic travel - some places some of the time will always cost less, especially if you are comparing a quiet morning with low yield against the ridiculous walk up fares.

As there's no such thing as a walk up plane fare, most like with like, including cost of getting to airport / station will favour the train.

Unless you happen to be selling anti-rust paint to Southend Pier!

[Tagron]

This thread is becoming increasingly out of touch with reality. Time to close it down perhaps and revert to the original Carlisle thread when there is further news of Stobarts planning application (August 3 ?), or if there is some enlightenment from any statement that might accompany Aer Arann's formal announcement of their ATR72 order.

[onyxcrowle]

The original thread doesn't work . We now have this one

[vulcanised]

What's wrong with it?

Works for me.

[SWBKCB]

And for me

http://www.pprune.org/airlines-airports-routes/229114-carlisle.html


Some useful background reading here.

[onyxcrowle]

It comes up page not found