Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more unlikely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on solid grounds, there are no fiscal problems attaining to any member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is just fine, couldn't be better, and top-top. Etc.

So there.


I trust, OFSO, that you passed my warmest regards to KAG ?

;)

I'm a bit late to this thread, but my tip would be early 2013...

Howard: I'm a bit late to this thread, but my tip would be early 2013...

Early 2013 it is then! ;)

If we had to listen many of the JB ppruners it would have been done in 2011 anyway!


Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more unlikely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on solid grounds, there are no fiscal problems attaining to any member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is just fine, couldn't be better, and top-top. Etc.

That's why we have this very simple poll. 2012. Yes or No. Simple.
Some JB ppruners have talked. Now reality will happen.
Will it match what people are saying here? Will see, then draw conclusions on the lucid ability or its lack concerning us.
It has to be neat, honest, clear, because we have faced some many wrong predictions and wrong understanding, so many times, so many ironic and irrespectful posts from posters who keep posting today (when they have not been banned), just changing the dates without having to face the fact they were wrong initially, without to take the responsabilities of their past statments.
It might change from now on. We speak clearly, then we assume what we said. This poll will help.
Internet is the perfect tool.
It makes people facing their own behaviour and statements against reality even if they keep claiming they are the only ones to be right.

Wait and see.

6 months to go and counting.

I take position concerning gold, Eurozone, EU, oil... real positions, not fighting and insulting people and countries.

***In 2011 I opened a thread (it doesn't exist anymore as many polluted it) saying alcohol, tobacco, suggar, junk food industry, they kill more than wars, terrorism, HIV all together, they are our real ennemies. Many mocked me.
Now, now and then, we see very regularly new threads speaking about those subjects, and admitting that they are like a kind of serious problem. You bet.

***My first post in 2007 when I joined pprune was to say an oil crisis was coming.
Everybody was laughing at me. 1 year later the oil was at its highest in its history, and today we are still in what more and more people admit to call the third oil crisis.

***In 2011 when gold was at almost $1800 an ounce and was supposed to climb at $2000, $3000, $6000 by the end of 2011 I warned everybody and told them to avoid to buy gold right now even if all the specialists and many ppruners still encouraged anybody to buy at that. Almost everybody was mocking me. More than half a year later gold is at $1650.

***In 2010 we had a talk with stuckgear. At that time France and Germany had more debts than UK and the US. And Germany was not doing as well as now. In fact Germany had more debt than France 2 years ago.
He told me the EU will sink and explode, Eurozone will dissappear and many other things.
I told him: pay attention, UK won't be that united in the future, it will become more isolated, the debt in UK and US will explode if we observe the economic trends and dynamic. I told him watch out Germany, it is much bigger and solid than what you might think, this single country exporting more than the whole US, I said aswell Eurozone won't explode but will become more integrated.
Result today: French debt under control, German one decreasing, UK in recession with more debt then France, Germany, or even Eurozone in its whole, and the US has already passed 100% debt and still sky rocketing (106% right now).
Numbers are numbers, and they tell us that if Eurozone bails out completely Greece, it will still have less debt than the US. Think about that twice before talking about armageddon. Keep the big picture in mind instead of jumping on easy Euro/France/Germany bashing (that I know a few of you clearly enjoy).

My point is that when we speak in a forum, we need some honesty, because our posts remains. That's not just talking in the wind.
My point is that, when talking to me, you will notice I am always polite and more than willing to honestly discuss, and mocking or ignoring what I have to say is actually not the best option.
Thing is that I am one of the very few that has a real background here, which means I have taken clear positions, and time gave me right.
I don't mean it will be the case with Greece, Greece might very well leave Eurozone the 18th of June of this year, but I don't think so.

I mean it is about time to speak like adults, I do have an earned credibility here, which is not necessarily the case of many posters who talk to me, so let's try and talk with some more politeness and much more seriousness when speaking about all those subjects.

To be honest looking wider at a situation in Greece, and following the news, I guess the situation resembles the one inUS at current, when the innocent people had been basically cheated and are indeed staying at home with their aviation diplomas and with the thousands of hours, and are being turned down. Isn’t it crazy?

I had turned down my at a time after beings as I was not so sure, and said I shall give myself some more time to relax. However,I absolutely disagree with the mass demonstrations taking place in Greece, as they are not going to solve a problem just will make it worst, they will scary away the tourists on a way. I had never been to Greece.Also, blaming the other members for this ongoing mess is not really a solution as no one has a right to blame the others for its own mess.

A slight error appears to have crept into my earlier post. It should have read (corrections in italics):

Gentlemen: I have just today come back from attending a couple of meetings in Paris and I can assure you that based on what I heard nothing is more likely that Greece (or any other country) will leave the Eurozone. The euro is on shaky grounds, there are fiscal problems attaining to every member of the eurozone whatsoever, and everything is not fine, couldn't be worse, and not top-top. Etc.

So there.

Sorry for any confusion (joy in some cases) I may have caused.

KAG :

I am sure future generations will look at you with the same reverence and awe that is now given to one of your countrymen in former times, when France was a great nation. He was born in 1503 and you would know him as Michel de Nostredame, the rest of the world refer to him as Nostradamus.

***In 2010 we had a talk with stuckgear. At that time France and Germany had more debts than UK and the US. And Germany was not doing as well as now. In fact Germany had more debt than France 2 years ago.
He told me the EU will sink and explode, Eurozone will dissappear and many other things.
I told him: pay attention, UK won't be that united in the future, it will become more isolated, the debt in UK and US will explode if we observe the economic trends and dynamic. I told him watch out Germany, it is much bigger and solid than what you might think, this single country exporting more than the whole US, I said aswell Eurozone won't explode but will become more integrated.
Result today: French debt under control, German one decreasing, UK in recession with more debt then France, Germany, or even Eurozone in its whole, and the US has already passed 100% debt and still sky rocketing (106% right now).


Errrrrrr NO KAG!.

1. in a discussion i said that the Euro & Eurozone cannot last in the form it is in [was in], with its economic structure.

That is being proved right.

2. You asked me for a *date* when it would collapse, as i had suggested, i said that i could not give a date, but it will implode (not explode, but implode).

Many greater financial and economic minds than you, or I have suggested now, that within a year a grexit will occur; following that, the spanish and italian issues will come forth.

if that happens, the Euro & Eurozone would have changed. significantly.

3. I did say to you that it could take decades to be put out of it's misery, but the euro, under its then current form, would likely implode, but a split was also likely and was also the most recoverable option.

That position remains unchanged, the longer the medicine is delayed the more likely the problem becomes irrevocable.

4. Germany will not, cannot, bail out the debts of the EU member states.

We have seen that with the levels of Greek and Spanish debt, leaving out the Italian debt beacuse not even the entire Eurozone can manage Italy's debt.

5. French Debt is still a risk, as such it is not under control. because the media attention has been elsewhere, it doesn't mean the debt problem has suddenly gone away.

we're not even through the first quarter of Hollande's premiership and his anti-austerity spend for growth policies have not been firmed up, let alone implimented or the results seen.

6. Rather than becoming more isolated as you purport, the UK has started to see an influx of the wealthy of France buying up property in London, to the point that they are now hiring french speaking staff to deal with the large numbers of inquiries and not just the French, Wealthy Europeans Look to London for Stable Property Investment (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jun/01/london-property-stable-investment-europeans?newsfeed=true) with the stable pound the problems in Europe are forcing the pound up in value (which is not particularly good for UK exports!).

7. as for your oil crisis:

Oil fell to a 16-month low below $100 a barrel on Friday (1st June 2012)

KAG, again you're making up history to suit a predetermined position.

Excellent article from the Telegraph by Daniel Hannan. Nothing in it that most of us don't already know, just facts that some people refuse to face.


The euro now equals poverty and deflation




To grasp the sheer unfairness of the euro system, consider Slovakia (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/slovakia). For a few days last October, this nation of five million defied the might of Brussels. Its MPs refused to approve the bail-out fund, arguing that it was wrong for prudent countries to be fined so as to reward profligate ones. The EU (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/) promptly turned its hideous strength against the plucky Carpathian republic. Within five days, the government had fallen and parliament had ratified the fund.

When we read of the latest euro-calamities – three Portuguese (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/portugal/) banks bailed out yesterday, Cyprus on the point of bankruptcy, retail sales across the eurozone far lower than expected – we feel sympathy rather than panic. Countries in the single currency have no such luxury.

“Since we joined the EU,” says Richard Sulik, leader of Slovakia’s liberal SaS party, “our net receipts from the Brussels budget have come to just over one billion euros. Under the European Stability Mechanism, we are liable for 13 billion. All to bail out countries with higher GDPs than ours.”

According to the polls, two thirds of those who use the euro believe it has made them worse off. They’re right. On Europe (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/)’s periphery, monetary union means deflation, poverty and emigration. In the core, it means unprecedented tax rises.

EU leaders no longer argue that the single currency boosts growth. Instead, they fall back on the cure-would-be-worse-than-the-disease shtick. Imagine the chaos of a break-up, they tell us, eyes wide with horror. The bank runs, the capital controls, the return to protectionism!

Related Articles




Slovakia looks set to reject bailout fund vote (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8819766/Slovakia-looks-set-to-reject-bailout-fund-vote.html)
11 Oct 2011


Oh, come off it. Every country currently in the euro has, by definition, managed precisely such a transition within the past 15 years. Adopting a new currency would be easier today than it was then, because more money is digitised, and notes and coins represent a smaller proportion of the currency in circulation. Defenders of the euro sometimes claim that leaving a currency union is not the same as joining one. True, but I can count at least 29 occasions when it has happened since the Second World War.
I asked a Slovakian economist how his country had managed its monetary divorce from the Czech Republic in 1993 (I am in Bratislava campaigning with local Eurosceptics). “Quite easily,” he replied. “We waited until a Friday afternoon, then the head of our central bank phoned all the banks and told them that someone from his office would come round with a stamp for their banknotes and that, until the new mint came into operation, that would be our legal tender. On the Monday morning, we had a new currency.”
All right, it’s a little more complicated than that, but only a little. In April, the five finalists for the Wolfson Economics Prize presented their plans for an orderly unbundling of the euro. All of them found ways to overcome the technical difficulties.
The truth, of course, is that supporters of the euro were never interested in the economics. Newly released documents show that Helmut Kohl was specifically warned against including countries with high debt levels. He decided that the political imperative of integration mattered more than the economic practicalities. The present Chancellor has made the same call. “If the euro fails, Europe fails,” Angela Merkel told the Bundestag when seeking support for the bail-out fund. “No one can take another 50 years of peace for granted.”
Put like that, it’s beyond argument. Everyone wants peace in Europe. But supporters of integration never stop to explain why jamming Europe’s states together without the consent of their peoples makes the continent more stable. Listen to how Greeks are talking about Germans and vice versa. The euro, which was designed to soothe national antagonisms, is having the opposite effect. And the money committed to the bail-out funds hasn’t been called in yet.
What about all those scary studies telling us that a break-up will cost gazillions? Wasn’t there one recently by UBS that put the price at 6,000-8,000 euros per family? Yes, but banks are hardly disinterested observers here. The break-up of the single currency, if accompanied by a series of defaults, would indeed be bad news for banks. But if we absolutely must bail out our financial institutions again – and I’ve never believed that ordinary taxpayers should rescue wealthy bondholders from the consequences of their bad investments – surely it would be cheaper to recapitalise them directly than to pour money into preserving the currency which is causing the problem?
In any case, what about the cost of saving the euro? Yesterday, as a dog returneth to its vomit, the European Commission reiterated its plan for an EU-wide financial transactions tax – 70 per cent of which would fall on the City of London, where most such transactions take place. They want to stick us with the bill to prop up a currency we didn’t join. Yet we have already committed £12.5 billion to the bail-outs. We are, in effect, paying for the privilege of impoverishing our trading partners.
This cannot go on. Eurocrats are treating the tumour instead of the patient. They see the survival of the euro as more important than the prosperity of the people using it. Outside the euro, countries could devalue, price themselves into the market and start exporting their way back to growth, as Britain did when it left the ERM in 1992. This, I suspect, is precisely what the EU elites secretly fear. Europe’s economies would recover; their reputations would not.

Too many damn opinions that eventually require consensus of the people being governed

The only simple answer is a war of attrition led by a strong nation with a leader supported by the people

Eventually it will come down to that.

sure it's chaos but so is it today.

Sex industry battered by economic storm | Athens News (http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/9/55822)

"A vibrator that now costs 20 euros would then cost 50," said Passaris. (Reuters)

What more can one say :rolleyes:

I do not have a vote in the national elections but I just hope that those that do see sense. 10 days to go.

The word chaos is of course of Greek origin :

chaos (http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=chaos&allowed_in_frame=0) http://www.etymonline.com/graphics/dictionary.gif (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=chaos)
mid-15c., "gaping void," from L. chaos, from Gk. khaos "abyss, that which gapes wide open, is vast and empty," from *khnwos, from PIE root *gheu-, *gh(e)i- "to gape" (cf. Gk khaino "I yawn," O.E. ginian, O.N. ginnunga-gap; see yawn (http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=yawn&allowed_in_frame=0)).

Meaning "utter confusion" (c.1600) is extended from theological use of chaos for "the void at the beginning of creation" in Vulgate version of Genesis.

The Greek for "disorder" was tarakhe, however the use of chaos here was rooted in Hesiod ("Theogony"), who describes khaos as the primeval emptiness of the Universe, begetter of Erebus and Nyx ("Night"), and in Ovid ("Metamorphoses"), who opposes Khaos to Kosmos, "the ordered Universe."

Chaos theory in the modern mathematical sense is attested from c.1977.

Quote;
“If the euro fails, Europe fails,” Angela Merkel told the Bundestag when seeking support for the bail-out fund. “No one can take another 50 years of peace for granted.”

Round 3 perhaps!

“If the euro fails, Europe fails,” Angela Merkel told the Bundestag when seeking support for the bail-out fund. “No one can take another 50 years of peace for granted.”

I find the German PM to be scare mongering there. Gutless political rhetoric.

Europe didn't fail when it didn't have the euro.
Europe can transition back to nations having their own national currencies again, albeit with some rough and tumble, and perhaps Frau PM losing her chair (Maybe that's what she means by "Europe failing" - her losing her current job! :ouch:).
Then, Europe will get along as it was getting in the mid to late 90's, which was well enough thank you all very much.

Chicken little, and all that.

Change comes, change goes; the only constant is that change changes.

No one can take another 50 years of peace for granted.

What with the number of terrorists who have access to nuclear weapons, I never have, dear Angie, but that has nothing to do with the euro and it's poor tactics on your part to tie the two themes together in an attempt to scare us all.

"everything comes round again, so nothing is completely new"

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60719000/jpg/_60719042_greeklaptop.jpg

" the young man with a laptop on a Greek vase from 470 BC (in fact, a writing-tablet) seems to prove the proposition."

BBC News - Ancient Greek solution for debt crisis (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18255039)
classical advice from the past - :)

"A vibrator that now costs 20 euros would then cost 50," said Passaris. (Reuters)

So Greeks will have to go back to doing the old fashioned "Greek thing"? :rolleyes:

Probes, that is not a writing tablet but is indeed a laptop, it was left in a chariot taxi by one of Erich von Däniken Gods. :ok:

"it was left in a chariot taxi by one of Erich von Däniken Gods."

or a civil servant?

laptop or laptablet - looks nice anyway?

So Greeks will have to go back to...
isn't it totally amazing, Slash, how you manage to expertly and expressly (=in the manner of express transport, i.e extra fast) find the most relevant information in a piece of writing! http://mail.yimg.com/ok/u/assets/img/emoticons/emo51.gif

I was a student of the great IF Snailtrails Probes (who lurked
JB well before your time) and I've tried my best to cotton on
to his formula of humor. Snaily was the best ever and can be
of course succeeded....but never ever replaced. I still keep a
few of his works (the ones that weren't destroyed in the Great
Hanoi Fire of '02) and read 'em up now and then.

Does this mean Canada will be getting a lot more Greek immigrants?

They should be happy here ;)

NL A0B 1P0

(paste into Google maps)

Greece votes to decide whether to stay in the eurozone - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9336594/Greece-votes-to-decide-whether-to-stay-in-the-eurozone.html)


In an election fought over the punishing austerity package demanded by international lenders as the price of keeping Greece from bankruptcy, opinion polls showed the radical leftist Syriza party, which wants to scrap the deal, running neck and neck with the conservative New Democracy, which broadly backs it.

The European Union and International Monetary Fund have insisted that the conditions of the €130bn bailout accord agreed in March must be accepted fully by a new government or funds will be cut off, driving Greece into bankruptcy.

All parties say they will keep Greece in the single currency, but Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras believes the agreement can be renegotiated without Greece having to leave, betting that European leaders cannot afford the turmoil that would be unleashed by cutting a member of the eurozone loose.

On the right, establishment heir and New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras says rejection of the EU/IMF bailout would mean a return to the drachma and even greater calamity, although he, too, wants to renegotiate some aspects of the package.

Opinion polls show Greeks, weary after five years of deep recession, overwhelmingly favour remaining in the euro, but there is bitter anger over repeated rounds of tax hikes, slashed spending and sharp cuts in wages.

In other words, the result of the election is irrelevant. The chaos and profligacy will continue and the result will be bloodshed and poverty. In an extreme scenario, Greece could become the Zimbabwe of Europe, and in our own lifetimes it has been run by a military junta.

"Today the Greek people speak. Tomorrow a new era for Greece begins," New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said after casting his ballot.
"We have conquered fear. Today we open a road to hope," Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras said.
The election marked the start of a new era for Greece as "an equal member of a Europe that is changing", he added.

BBC News - Greece holds key elections over EU bailout (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18472595)

seriously. A road to hope?

Do you mean the elections ? I seriously can't see how anyone can predict what will happen as the variables are so great and taking place in an arena where nobody has any experience ( and being driven by petty, face-saving, greedy politicians )

I can't see the election result making much difference, after all, the petty, face-saving, greedy politicians will continue to act in their own selfish interests and decisions will not be based on what is good for the people or indeed for the European 'Union' that the country is meant to be a part of. Pragmatism will not play a part in this.

BBC News - Greece holds key elections over EU bailout (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18472595)

Greek bailout: Where the parties stand


Party Stance on bailout Share of vote May Pro-bailout parties http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882525_newdemocracy.gif New Democracy
Keep bailout but more time for restructuring and EU help to stimulate growth
19%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882522_pasok.gif Socialist (Pasok)
Keep bailout but subject it to a "structured and courageous revision"; implement fiscal adjustment over three years, not two
13%
Anti-bailout parties

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60868000/gif/_60868828_syriza.gif Syriza
Cancel bailout, nationalise banks and freeze privatisations, but stay inside eurozone
17%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882516_independentgreeks.gif Independent Greeks
Reject bailout but remain in eurozone
11%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882519_democraticleft.gif Democratic Left
Gradually disengage from bailout but stay in eurozone
6%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882520_289c2464-0eaf-4779-9293-ed634a4919dc.gif Communist (KKE)
Unilaterally cancel debt, leave the EU and restore Greece's own currency
9%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60868000/gif/_60868826_goldendawn.gif Golden Dawn
Tear up the bailout but not necessarily abandon the euro

Wont make any difference if the corrupt filth in Brussels don't like the result they will just make em retake it.
:suspect:

Should that not be:

Golden Dawn
Beat up any foreigners you find, tear up the bailout but not necessarily abandon the euro.

Greek bailout: Where the parties stand


Party Stance on bailout Share of vote May Pro-bailout parties http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882525_newdemocracy.gif New Democracy
Keep bailout but more time for restructuring and EU help to stimulate growth
19%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882522_pasok.gif Socialist (Pasok)
Keep bailout but subject it to a "structured and courageous revision"; implement fiscal adjustment over three years, not two
13%
Anti-bailout parties

http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60868000/gif/_60868828_syriza.gif Syriza
Cancel bailout, nationalise banks and freeze privatisations, but stay inside eurozone
17%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882516_independentgreeks.gif Independent Greeks
Reject bailout but remain in eurozone
11%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882519_democraticleft.gif Democratic Left
Gradually disengage from bailout but stay in eurozone
6%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882520_289c2464-0eaf-4779-9293-ed634a4919dc.gif Communist (KKE)
Unilaterally cancel debt, leave the EU and restore Greece's own currency
9%
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60868000/gif/_60868826_goldendawn.gif Golden Dawn
Tear up the bailout but not necessarily abandon the euro

so basically, the Greeks don't have much of a choice, nothing remotely, as tableview points out, pragmatic.. so in effect, the results will unlikely be anything close to providing any semblance of stability to the eurozone, so we can expect more months of instability and europe in an ever descending holding pattern as nothing gets done, thing continue in the sprial descent. Except of course; more hot air gets expended, debt increases and more rhetoric gets floated about as europe continues to stagnate in debt and fiscal mis-management.

Greek election: Live - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9336591/Greek-election-Live.html)


Official exit poll shows New Democracy ahead of anti-austerity Syriza with 29.5pc of votes, while German foreign minister suggests Greece could be given more time on reforms.

• Syriza's Tsipras concedes defeat to New Democracy's Samaras
• Greek exit poll: New Democracy 30.3pc, Syriza 26.3pc
• Socialists take control of the French parliament
• Papandreou: Greece leaving euro would be 'catastrophic'
• Syriza's Alexis Tsipras: 'We will continue in our struggle'
• France calls for EU to agree €120bn growth-boosting plan (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9336628/French-president-Francois-Hollande-urges-EU-to-agree-on-120bn-plan-to-boost-growth.html)




http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/60882000/gif/_60882525_newdemocracy.gif New Democracy
Keep bailout but more time for restructuring and EU help to stimulate growth



great ! so we're all back to square one, bailout, more time to pass and faff around with shuffling the deckchairs as debt grows across the eurozone.. where's the money for growth stimulus going to come from.. Germany ? or in the crazy EU world the PIIGS countries are going to be pitching in along with France, who are also calling for a 'stimulus' package..

all this just days after Spain's failed bailout of 100bn, which was debt ridden Italy borrow at 6pc to lend to Spain at 3pc.
100 billion there, 120 billon here, and Italy.. as reported in bloomberg in Feb 2012... Italy January Government Debt Rises to Record EU1.936 Trillion - Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-15/italy-debt-rises-to-1-897-trillion-euros-on-bailout-costs-1-.html)

15 Feb 2012 – Italian government debt rose to a record 1.936 trillion euros ($2.5 trillion) in January as the country funded its share of European Union bailouts.

and so the farce continues.

Did I just hear a high-ranking German official, speaking as a representative of the German government, declare the EU will give Greece more time to sort itself out ? Surely not......who is running this show, anyway ?

Those of you who voted Yes in the poll must be sweating. Less than six months to go now before you're proven wrong...

Never underestimate what is at stake here.

Just because we voted 'Yes', doesn't mean we want 'Yes". It was a question about reality not desires, as the question poser made clear.

I didn't say anything about desire - some people just want to be proven right

Those of you who voted Yes in the poll must be sweating. Less than six months to go now before you're proven wrong...

Never underestimate what is at stake here.


Six months.....and they say a week is a long time in politics.

more hot air gets expended, debt increases and more rhetoric gets floated about as europe continues to stagnate in debt and fiscal mis-management.

Ah Yes! But then one reflects on two great Scottish economic truths, neither from Adam Smith:

1. "Facts are chiels that winna ding" [Burns]; and

2. "Ye canna tak' the breeks aff a Hielandman" [quoted by Scott].

Those of you who voted Yes in the poll must be sweating. Less than six months to go now before you're proven wrong...
I'd gladly be proven wrong if it means Greek people can go on with their lives. Seriously.


Indeed, ND has the worst record of all: it ran up the deficit in the first place, lied about it, and then voted against every attempt by the Papandreou government to tackle the problem which it had created, while simultaneously insisting that Greece must remain in the euro at all costs. The chief difference between the three big parties is that ND proposes tax cuts which, while desirable in principle, are hardly a way to cut the deficit in the short term. All of which makes it hard to believe that an ND-led government, if one can be cobbled together, could deliver the necessary fiscal tightening. None of the fundamentals has been altered. As Allister Heath puts it, Greece has jumped out of the fire into the frying-pan.
The Greek electorate is in denial. It rejects austerity, but insists on keeping the euro. All the main parties duly parroted what voters wanted to hear, making for a fantasy election, a make-believe election, a fingers-in-my-ears-I-can't-hear-you election. The only list which was honest about the necessary cuts – a coalition of three liberal parties – failed to gain a single seat.
What will happen the next time Greece reneges on its promised spending reductions? Will the rest of the EU now lose patience? I doubt it. For thirty years, Greece has been subsidised, indulged and encouraged to look to Brussels for all its solutions. Now, faced with what they see as a problem of the EU's making, Greeks understandably shrug their shoulders and expect Brussels to sort things out for them. And you know what? Given the way the EU has behaved to date, they might just be right.

Greece wants the euro but doesn't want the austerity. How much longer can this go on? – Telegraph Blogs (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100165822/another-non-result-in-greece-how-much-longer-can-this-go-on/)

"The best laid plans of mice and men" more Rabbie ya ken :}

Those of you who voted Yes in the poll must be sweating. Less than six months to go now before you're proven wrong...

Never underestimate what is at stake here.

We've never underestimated what's at stake here, that's been said for quite some time, and some of us are a hell of a lot more vulnerable to the effects than you are. And, like probes, I'll be happy to be proven wrong IF it means the euro and eurozone stabilises but since you have others on the edge that is unlikely. Sure, the Germans can say "we'll give them more time" but all it needs is the Finns, or the Dutch, or even the German government to turn around and say "No" and then the whole slo-mo train crash goes a little faster, especially when you add in the small matter of there going be yet another bailout for Greece needed very soon.

So I ain't sweating, far from it. If you think that this result in Greece somehow "saves" the whole shebang, especially since New Democracy has to actually form a government, then you are wide awake in dreamland. There ain't no morbidly obese female in sight, and I don't hear no singing either. We'll either be screwed by a collapse in Greece or we'll be screwed by the continuing clusterf*** called the EU shuffling papers around and pouring money into black holes. Either way, we're screwed thanks to the vanity of some effing politicians who thought they could create a Democratic Republic of Europe whilst ignoring all the factors that went against any sort of "unity".

If anything, the close result has compounded the uncertainty rather than alleviating it. As others have said, this has nothing to do with economics and everything to do with politics.

voting for anti-austerity is all very well.. but Greece cannot generate the tax revenue to even pay the interest on its debt, let alone pay it down. So Greece remains in a status of potential default. SNAFU.

How many bail-outs can the Germans bear ? of Greece alone, let alone Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and then France ? Or as mentioned before, do the debt ridden countries at risk of default then borrow high to lend low to assist in bailing each other out ? Insanity.

As tableview suggests this is not about economics, but about politics, but the cost of this political ideology game is the economies of several soverign nations.

So, we're back to where we were at two days ago, two weeks ago, two months ago, two years ago.. apart from the fact that debt has grown and the situation has got worse with each step.

Austerity will not work without more employment. Where are the Greek jobs going to come from?

Ain't gonna happen inside the Euro.


I wonder how the same idiots who got them into this mess (politicians and people) are going to get them out again?
Of course, the above situation is very familiar to all RAF pilot trainees. So, metaphorically speaking, are the Greeks going to get chopped?

No fat lady singing... and 'the chop' still on the cards..

Greece will have to leave EMU whoever is elected - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/9337283/Greece-will-have-to-leave-EMU-whoever-is-elected.html)


Central banks across the world are standing ready to shower markets with emergency liquidity. A dust-up in Athens is the excuse they need to launch a fresh blitz of stimulus as the global economy flirts with recession once again.

Fed chair Ben Bernanke requires a crisis somewhere to outflank his own hawks and slip another round of quantitative easing (QE) past the Tea Party Congress before the “fiscal cliff” – 4.5pc of GDP in tightening – hits the US economy with a sledgehammer this winter.

Mario Draghi at the European Central Bank needs one even more badly to check his own liquidationist reactionaries before they destroy Europe’s post-War order altogether.

Any action may already be too late to stop a synchronised slump on both sides of the Atlantic, with China, India, Brazil, and Russia in trouble too.
The US has slowed to stall speed. Retail sales have fallen for the last two months. Job growth has dropped from 259,000 in February to 69,000 in May, too low to stop unemployment rising again.

Europe’s depression is spreading, the result of a triple-barrelled fiscal, monetary, and regulatory shock – the worst policy errors since 1931.
All key measures of the eurozone money supply are contracting, in breach of the ECB’s “twin pillar” mandate. This is what is killing southern Europe. Contagion from Greece has nothing to do with it.

I write before knowing the outcome of Greece’s election. For what it is worth, I doubt that Greece will elect a manipulator who knows he cannot tear up the bail-out Memorandum and keep the euro by holding Europe to ransom.

The Bundesbank’s Jens Weidmann could hardly have been clearer. “We must not allow any country to blackmail us,” he said. If Syriza admitted that euro exit is the price that must be paid to restore sovereignty and a viable currency, one might cheer them on.
What Alexis Tsipras invites is the worst outcome: rupture on hostile terms; a return to the Drachma without stabilisation support. He is trifling with his nation’s fate.

Ultimately, Greece will have to leave EMU whoever is elected. No government can carry out an “internal devaluation” for eight years, and nor should it try. But it matters a great deal for Greece how exit is negotiated.

As for the threats of Mr Tsipras, they are by now empty. He does not have the means to pull the plug on monetary union, or Europe’s banks, or anything else.

Private investors have already lost 75pc of their loans to the Greek state, and what remains is trading at a default discount.

German and Dutch leaders violated the sanctity of the Project irreversibly when they first latched onto the bogus narrative that Greece had failed to comply with the Memorandum. Perhaps they did not want to know that the Troika had mostly praised Greece’s efforts.

The convenient lie told investors that the creditor powers would wriggle out of their EMU responsibilities when push comes to shove.
The eurozone has been trading like a fixed exchange- rate system ever since, and on that basis Spain, Italy and Portugal have overvalued D-Mark pegs of 20pc to 30pc. Bad pegs break.

It is not contagion that investors fear. It is replication: slow death as one country after another grinds into debt-deflation.

Citigroup says Italy’s economy will shrink by 2.5pc this year and 2pc next year as austerity bites, pushing public debt to 137pc by 2014.

Standard & Poor’s says the Spanish property crash is only halfway, yet the damage to the banking system so far has already forced the state to seek a €100bn (£80.4bn) bail-out.

Spanish banks must roll over €545bn in debts, yet they are running out of collateral to borrow from the ECB. The banks can no longer prop up the state, and the state can no longer prop up the banks, and global investors will fund neither.

The fond wish of markets is that the ECB will act once Europe’s leaders have sketched a “road map” for fiscal union at this month’s summit. But it will disappoint.

Token bond purchases by the ECB will not help at this late stage. Half measures will accelerate the crisis by pushing other creditors down the ladder.

It will require monetary stimulus on a crushing scale to restore confidence, and arguably a pledge to do whatever it takes to cap real Italian and Spanish bond yields at 3pc.

Not even the agile Mr Draghi can hope to extract this much from the men in Frankfurt. The impasse is total.

Greece jumps out of the fire and straight into the frying pan (http://www.cityam.com/latest-news/allister-heath/greece-jumps-out-the-fire-and-straight-the-frying-pan?tw_p=twt)

Austerity will not work without more employment. Where are the Greek jobs going to come from?
Ain't gonna happen inside the Euro.
I understand only that I have to be extra dumb, because I really can't understand how a different-looking money would help with jobs. OK, the banks get less (as it would be worth less than euro), but jobs? It would be possible to cut the prices (accordingly, as the salaries), get more tourists to spend (for example), which is probably easier with euros they don't have to convert into something else?
A reporter residing there told that in his location only half of the pensions has been paid for a couple of months (like 200 instead of 400), and in the neighbouring area nothing for 3 months. So it's quite desperate in some places.
Has the political 'elite' had any cuts, I wonder?

The drachma will be worth a lot less outside Greece, thus making Greece a lot more attractive for tourists, employers, international shippers, etc. It means the Greeks will have to purchase a lot more home-produced items, thus boosting local industry.

That's my understanding of how a separate currency will work.

but that would be so also if the life/prices were 'cheaper' in Greece? One does not need different money for that - economically at least?

I have read in this thread that Greece would go out of Eurozone June the 18th, 2012.

Today is June the 18th, 2012.

I have read in this thread that Greece would go out of Eurozone June the 18th, 2012.

Today is June the 18th, 2012.


must be proof of what an economic success the Eurozone is eh KAG ?

it was possible that Greece could have been out of the Eurozone on 18th June 2012, and as we have seen from the results of the elections in Greece, nothing has changed, nothing resolved, no step toward stability, just more months of deck chair shuffling.

what a success !

News » G20: Merkel says no to new bailout terms for Greece after election

the fat lady is getting bored waiting for the chance to make her debut...

Greece pulls out of the Euro
(you do this over a weekend starting immediately the banks shut for the weekend on friday)

Ideally you mobilise the armed forces and declare martial law, seal all borders, ports etc, occupy all radio,TV,Telecomms facilities, also banks, government buildings.

You broadcast continous martial music, and (for TV) a montage of heroic and nationally important symbols, interrupted only for solemn announcements regarding the interruption of normal life 'for the sake of the people and the country'

You call an emergency session of the parliament [or whatever the 'democractic' system is] starting at 00:01 hours Saturday morning

You must be sure about who you can trust. All the others are immediately arrested and [by preference] immediately given a quick, fair trial and shot, especially socialists, communists and anyone else who may disagree with you.

You pass the following laws by show of hands [and declare each vote unanimous in favour]
(a) that with immediate effect the country's currency is now the "new whatever you want to call it"
(b) that all debts/liabilities/bank holdings/deposits etc etc are re-denominated in the new currency at a rate of exchange of whatever it was before you joined the euro
(c) that it is a criminal offense to hold any foreign currency [ie including euros], that all foreign currency held [including held by nationals in foreign accounts] must be surrendered to the central bank at the determined RoX for 'new currency'.
(d) that a 23-hour-per-day curfew is in force with 1 hour windows between 10:00-11:00 and 15:00-16:00
(e) that curfew breakers will be shot on sight as terrorists & looters.

Then you keep all the banks sealed and closed for at least a week. Food & emergency rations to be commandeered by the armed forces for distribution to those in need.

You gradually open up the curfew until it only covers the period between 1 hour before dusk and 1 hour after dawn [ie overnight]

You reopen the banks.

During that week you must draw up a comprehensive list of terrorist elements to be arrested on sight, and organise the apprehension of same.

You then declare (a) that your country cannot repay it;s debts and is defaulting on everything.

with luck your currency will immediately devalue by about 80-95% before recovering to about 75%.

You then negotiate to settle all debts with 'new currency' with the debt valued at the 'fixed' RoX.

So now you are debt-free and your population have wages that are so low you can compete for markets internationally.

The ONLY 2 problems I can see is that (i) can you trust the armed forces (ii) the lack of cattle-trucks to transport all the 'terrorist elements'

Honest, it's sooo easy, been there done that

Merkel says no to new bailout terms for Greece after election.
Well, she would say that, wouldn't she?

The drachma will be worth a lot less outside Greece, thus making Greece a lot more attractive for tourists, employers, international shippers, etc. It means the Greeks will have to purchase a lot more home-produced items, thus boosting local industry

Switching back to the Drachma would be enormously painful for the Greek economy. It certainly would not be the panacea some elements of the media make it out to be. Inflation would be a major problem, particularly given the country's trade deficit - country's 'local industry' is pretty insignificant and wouldn't be able to provide much of the day-to-day goods the country required.

As for tourism, it all really depends how stable the country and reliable its transport infrastructure remains. I for one would have second thoughts about flying to a country where the air traffic controllers hadn't been paid for a few months.

Its evident Greece population have arrived at more-or-less this conclusion themselves. Also the fact there'd be no more bailouts from European institutions if they did leave the Euro. Its far better for them to be in rather than out, less so for everyone else in the Eurozone.

The BBC were at it again this afternoon: "The new Greek goverment is being asked...."

There ain't no "Greek government" yet, new or otherwise. They might be, but somehow I doubt it.

dead pan.
Thanks for the input. I've said on this issue "it's my understanding", not "it is". What you say seems reasonable.

I have a photograph from a few years ago of the 19 year old secretary "looking after" the desk of the Greek Ops controller at an airfield I won't mention. She is also "looking after" his second can of Carlsberg. It was 11am. Here appeared about half an hour later with no explanation.

I would be amused to find out how this is going to be worse when he hasn't been paid?

Its evident Greece population have arrived at more-or-less this conclusion themselves.
don't be so sure. Looks more like: They (= EU) have no choice but go on paying anyway.
Also I've wondered about this 'restoring' thing. If the economy was not ok before, how come it's going to be reorganised back to the not-ok?

As for tourism, it all really depends how stable the country and reliable its transport infrastructure remains. I for one would have second thoughts about flying to a country where the air traffic controllers hadn't been paid for a few months.

Apart from the small matter of tourist numbers dropping in recent years, as suggested in the link I posted earlier, EVERYONE is hurting due to the various "austerity" measures being imposed in various countries (higher taxes, lower or no pay rises, etc) so those who would normally be "tourists" will be holding back a bit as they don't have the same disposable income, and that is before we think of the "uncertainty" everyone feels. In fact, to back up the suggestion of the number of tourists dropping, here (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18332793) is a BBC report (NOTE:- NOT the Telegraph :ok:) which says that, this year, bookings are down by 20% overall with UK visitors down by an estimated 20%, Germans down by 40 % and Irish down by 50%.

By any standard, that is painful to an industry that normally provides 20% of the country's GDP and there are obvious repercussions regarding lower tax receipts, higher social security payments, etc.

You broadcast continous martial music, and (for TV) a montage of heroic and nationally important symbols,

Monty Python's Flying Circus repeats, shurely !

don't be so sure. Looks more like: They (= EU) have no choice but go on paying anyway.
Also I've wondered about this 'restoring' thing. If the economy was not ok before, how come it's going to be reorganised back to the not-ok?


a very good point by probes..

so is the economy going to be restored back to the debt levels before the second bailout.

or restored to the debt levels before the first bailout,

or restored to the levels after the then greek government, the EU and Goldman Sachs AKA the vampire squid cooked the books to meet the EU convergence criteria by taking on huge loan (with interest)

or restored back to the levels when it didn't meet the convergence criteria of the Eurozone and the then greek government, the EU and Goldman Sachs needed to cook the books and take on huge loans (with interest) to meet the convergence criteria.

or restore back to the levels before the EU convergence was mooted when Greece had ermmmm.. a bucket load of debt ?


answers on a psotcode to the usual address, the first correct winner pulled out of the hat will win.... an all expenses weekend for two in Athens. YAY !

Stuckgear: must be proof of what an economic success the Eurozone is eh KAG ?
I was more thinking about something like:
"must be the proof of what prediction accuracy is in JBzone eh Stuckgear?"

KAG,

Don't get cocky on one day's news. The line of challenges to the Eurozone is quite long, and equally daunting.

While I wish our Euro friends the best, no solution is real until the debt stops increasing; same as for UK and USA. Until then, buy gold.

What was your Dec. 8 gold price guess again?

prediction accuracy, KAG? Prediction accuracy?? That's what it's about??
Actually I thought it's about people who are so deep in youknowwhat they think the others have to pull them out not to sink themselves.

I have always been more interested in people and the why-thing, even though it's more than mystics when they start voting (in my own country, too). Some of the interviews have been really baffling. "Do yu want to quit euro?" a guy is asked who voted for the pretty guy. "No." - "But he said he'll do that." - "No, he wouldn't dare that actually."
Or some who said they just couldn't vote for the parties that got the country into the mess. But they did not support the few reasonable ones either.
As someone said in JB - the problem with democracy is that more benefits are voted for than are actually available.
The stock markets have had their say, too. That's something more tangible?

Well, as they say, turkeys don't vote for Xmas, but it comes all the same.....

Bandaide: KAG,

Don't get cocky on one day's news. The line of challenges to the Eurozone is quite long, and equally daunting.

While I wish our Euro friends the best, no solution is real until the debt stops increasing; same as for UK and USA. Until then, buy gold.

What was your Dec. 8 gold price guess again?

Well, I was right again, but the ones predicting wrong should be more cocky than me???


Gold? Wrong thread. But if you insist, you predicted gold at more than around $2150 (or something close) before the end of 2012 right?
Me I started to warn people who believed the value would still increase above $2000, $3000, $6000 this year. When gold was at $1920 everybody were screaming and saying buy!!!
Tell me how much is gold now please??? If we look today (7 or 8 months later)I was right. The year is not finished though, wait and see.

Exactly, KAG, the year isn't over yet. Still just under 6 months for Greece to implode...........

Let's face it, it ain't looking good since all reports and signs are that they will need yet another bailout (something we already knew) and there may not be the same willingness to do so since the Greeks have decided that they want to renegotiate the terms of the last bailout IF they can form some sort of government by Thursday. Add in their economy contracting further and you wonder how they could meet the present debt they have, never mind the extra debt from new bailouts (for there will be more after the next one).

Gold is involved in this discussion, even if tangentially, which was how I brought it up. As you continue the discussion after saying it doesn't belong in this thread, and as you were so kind as to address your post to me, I'll play along.

When gold was at $1920 everybody were screaming and saying buy!!!

Who was, for example? The exercise was for us to guess the price of gold in USD on Dec. 8, 2012. I guessed $2150, and although you refused to pin yourself down to your own guess, you said gold was worth $600 and that everyone who held it at today's prices were suckers. We'll see, won't we?

Out of curiousity, would you rather lend your own money at 5% interest in Euros for ten years, or at 5% interest in ounces of gold?

Out of curiousity, would you rather lend your own money at 5% interest in Euros for ten years, or at 5% interest in ounces of gold?

Interesting question as the Euro is a fiat currency and gold is, well, a gold standard.


So go on KAG ? tell us...

Stuckgear: Interesting question as the Euro is a fiat currency and gold is, well, a gold standard.


So go on KAG ? tell us...

I am afraid I didn't get what you wanted me to say.
Sorry about that.

OK you guys and girls with all these thoughts and advice here is your chance:

ekathimerini.com | Finance minister wanted (http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_22279_25/06/2012_448915)

well I would be interested except

(a) I would want to be paid 'offshore'
and
(b) in US dollars.....

oh...

and (c) up front in advance...

David Cameron: I'll do 'whatever it takes' to protect United Kingdom from Greek influx - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/9373844/David-Cameron-Ill-do-whatever-it-takes-to-protect-United-Kingdom-from-Greek-influx.html)

Will this extend to throwing out Greeks?
Will HRH Prince Philip lose his work permit?

PLEASE don't sack Phil !!!!

- and guess who's got balls?! :E

Finland could leave the eurozone rather than pay other nations' debts, says Jutta Urpilainen - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9380851/Finland-could-leave-the-eurozone-rather-than-pay-other-nations-debts-says-Jutta-Urpilainen.html)



http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02269/jutta_2269208b.jpg

"Finland is committed to being a member of the eurozone, and we think that the euro is useful for Finland," Ms Urpilainen told financial dailyKauppalehti, adding though that "Finland will not hang itself to the euro at any cost and we are prepared for all scenarios".

The finance minister stressed that Finland, one of only a few EU countries to still enjoy a triple-A credit rating, would not agree to an integration model in which countries were collectively responsible for member states' debts and risks.

She also insisted that a proposed banking union would not work if it were based on joint liability.

"Collective responsibility for other countries' debt, economics and risks; this is not what we should be prepared for," Ms Urpilainen said.

Ms Urpilainen acknowledged in an interview with the Helsingin Sanomatdaily that Finland "represents a tough line" when it comes to the eurozone bailouts.

Incisive article by Lord Wolffson in yesterday's Times re the outlook for Britain given a Euro collapse.....some gloom and doom, certainly, but opportunities too. Worth a read.

from bad to worse:

At the end of last week, the European Central Bank cut off a crucial source of cash for Greek banks, saying that it would stop accepting Greek government bonds as collateral for low-cost loans until the troika completes its report, which is not expected until late August at the earliest. Greek banks must now borrow from the Greek Central Bank at a higher interest rate, from a fund with limited means; if it runs out, Greece would have to start printing drachmas.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/europe/euro-remedy-for-greece-becomes-part-of-the-problem.html?_r=1&ref=greece

This is an untenable situation which I have been banging on about for years here. Conscription alone costs an enormous amount each year to train men who in some cases serve just 9 months. This is often spent sitting on a remote lump of rock overlooking Turkey which is no longer a real threat.

EU and NATO Look on at Greece's Pampered Armed Forces - Carnegie Europe (http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/?fa=49185)

PLEASE don't sack Phil !!!!

If they try to, he should have a quiet word with Angela and his cousins who were not invited to his wedding, and THEN we'll see just how much Greek he is.

3 months to go...

Well the Summer is coming to an end. Everyone is back at work. Plenty of time to restart the whole Greek drama. It's not over until it's over.

And in the meantime . . .

BBC News - Eurozone manufacturing PMI falls again in August (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19462611)

Eurozone PMI 45.1, UK 49.5 (over 50 is growth).

Well the Summer is coming to an end. Everyone is back at work.

It depends where you live. Here many people are now out of work as the main tourist season ended this weekend.

Also many people didn't get work this year in the tourism industry. On the islands in the Aegean we calculate that we have been 40 - 50% down. The Greeks who traditionally go on holiday mid July to mid August didn't come because they are short of cash. Other nationalities stayed away for unfounded fear of strikes and riots thanks to the world media. For those not in the Euro zone the exchange rates have been extremely favourable. With the drop in tourism there have also been some great last minute deals available. The bad weather in Northern Europe has driven people abroad but not so many here.

It is not too late to come here for a late hols folks.

Catalunia did well with the tourists, more came but stayed for shorter periods. Wan't one of the best summers but by far from the disaster predicted.

However Rajoy has warned Spain "it wil be a hard autumn". Aye, it will that, and all because you're toeing the Merkel line, you *** and raising taxes instead of lowering them and stimulating the economy. (((And leaving the euro wouldn't come amiss, either))).

3 months to go...

Indeed - it still seems as unlikely as when this poll was first started.

I suppose it all ultimately depends on whether the Germans finally relent and let Mr Draghi start openly buying government bonds. Apparently even Angela is comng around to the idea.

Apparently even Angela is comng around to the idea.

Would Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht have wavered?

Ah H.G.S.

yes a great man, but not, of course, as great as his leader....

exascot, would love to take a break there, love the food and the hospitality of the greeks..

i was in PC world at the weekend and the chap serving me was from Athens.. as you do, we got talking...

The Greek people didnt ask for the situation, nor had a choice in the situation and the politics within Greece mean that nothing will probably be resolved.

Would Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht have wavered?

Given the forces at play here, not to mention the stakes, I reckon even he would have blinked. Question is, would he have been more sympathetic to those countries currently in the grip of austerity-induced depression, having witnessed events first-hand in the Weimar republic?

So Bulgaria - Europe's weakest economy - has decided not to join the sinking ship. Bit of a blow!

D-Day today, apparently (D for Draghi). Expectations that he is going to announce a bold bond buying plan to mop up all of this government debt, or at least cap their yields. We can all relax now - the Euro has finally been saved...

Greeks eye 'war reparations' from Germany as markets await euro ruling - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9537451/Greeks-eye-war-reparations-from-Germany-as-markets-await-euro-ruling.html)

I have been asking Greek friends why this hasn't been done before. No one seems to know.

Of course if they do, what chance do you there is of the Bundestag agreeing any further payments to Greece pending a decision in the case - which could extend for decades depending on the number of claimants?

Legal background of the Greek reparation claims (http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=greece%20germany%20reparations%20final&source=web&cd=11&cad=rja&ved=0CF0QFjAK&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fontanafilm.ch%2FDOKFILME%2Fargyris%2Fpdf%2FArgyris_Appendix_B.pdf&ei=5nhQUJeeDcyT0QWWt4HgDA&usg=AFQjCNGhccpIoJpH0hutEE9Bp9n2Clu0aw)

In the Paris Reparations Agreement of 1946 the German war crimes against Greece were billed at 7.1 billion US dollars. A few years later, under the threat of the oncoming Cold War, Germany was already needed by the Allies in the struggle against communism. For this reason, it was agreed in the London Agreement of 1953 that the recognised reparation demands against Germany should be postponed – until a final settlement in a later peace treaty. Greece, which was not among the victorious powers, had no say in this.

However, the Federal Republic of Germany made so-called global agreements with the West European countries in the 1960s, with which lump-sum compensation payments were made. A corresponding treaty was concluded with Greece for the sum of 115 million DM – a mere fraction of the actual debts. However, the victims of the armed forces crimes, forced labour or resistance fighters, for example, were explicitly omitted from these payments, and individual claims in the treaty expressly excepted. The Greek government has always maintained that no final settlement was reached with this global
agreement – and even officials in the Federal Finance Ministry have conceded in writing that the Greek reparation claims were not fulfilled by this global agreement.

After the German reunification, the time had come to negotiate a final “Peace Treaty”, as mentioned in the 1953 London Agreement. But this was deliberately avoided and a so-called “2+4 Agreement” was concluded, which admittedly settled the renunciation of reparation claims, but only with the four
“Great Powers” among the former Allies. Greece and several other countries were given no share in the solution of the agreement. They were unable therefore to make claims – or even to renounce them.

Almost all legal experts now agree that with this “2+4 Agreement” the London Agreement became invalid. In consequence, there is now the possibility for states and, if need be, individuals to validate the old claims – those claims that had been deferred since 1953 because of the London Agreement. This also applies to Greece and to Greek citizens.

will Greece leave Eurozone in 2012? The question now appears to be - will there be a Eurozone for Greece to leave in 2012?

A few years later, under the threat of the oncoming Cold War, Germany was already needed by the Allies in the struggle against communism

Wholly agree on "A few years later".

Could we not all also agree on "A few years earlier"?

Or would that be "unspeakable", not being at all the same as "unthinkable"?

The question now appears to be - will there be a Eurozone for Greece to leave in 2012?


Hellsbrink posted a link to an interesting and valid article in the Eu politics thread.. the link is here The Tragedy of the European Union and How to Resolve It by George Soros | The New York Review of Books (http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2012/sep/27/tragedy-european-union-and-how-resolve-it/)

a couple of excerpts here:

The euro crisis has entered a new phase. The continued survival of the euro is assured but the future shape of the European Union will be determined by the political decisions the member states will have to take during the next year or so. The alternatives are extensively analyzed in the article that follows.
—September 7, 2012


A two-tier eurozone would eventually destroy the European Union because the disenfranchised would sooner or later withdraw from it. If a political union is not attainable the next best thing would be an orderly separation between creditor and debtor countries. If the members of the euro cannot live together without pushing their union into a lasting depression, they would be better off separating by mutual consent.
In an amicable breakup of the euro it matters a great deal which party leaves, because all the accumulated debts are denominated in a common currency. If a debtor country leaves, its debt increases in value in line with the depreciation of its currency. The country concerned could become competitive; but it would be forced to default on its debt and that would cause incalculable financial disruptions. The common market and the European Union may be able to cope with the default of a small country such as Greece, especially when it is so widely anticipated, but it could not survive the departure of a larger country like Spain or Italy. Even a Greek default may prove fatal. It would encourage capital flight and embolden financial markets to mount bear raids against other countries, so the euro may well break up as the Exchange Rate Mechanism did in 1992.

By contrast, if Germany were to exit and leave the common currency in the hands of the debtor countries, the euro would fall and the accumulated debt would depreciate in line with the currency. Practically all the currently intractable problems would dissolve. The debtor countries would regain competitiveness; their debt would diminish in real terms and, with the ECB in their control, the threat of default would evaporate. Without Germany, the euro area would have no difficulty in carrying out the U-turn for which it would otherwise need Chancellor Merkel’s consent.

A German exit would be a disruptive but manageable onetime event, instead of the chaotic and protracted domino effect of one debtor country after another being forced out of the euro by speculation and capital flight. There would be no valid lawsuits from aggrieved bond holders. Even the real estate problems would become more manageable. With a significant exchange rate differential, Germans would be flocking to buy Spanish and Irish real estate. After the initial disruptions the euro area would swing from depression to growth.

Tick tock...

Greece will fold tents right after the US congress passes the legislation to avoid the fiscal cliff. Neither will happen if the world ends this weekend.

The mismatch between a good part of the JB posters viewpoint and the reality is something that starts to appear. More than half of people here are conservators (pilot are conservators?) and necessarily have a biased point of view, because no political party itself owns the truth, it is called democracy, it is called reality aswell. All political parties tell part of the truth (and bullcr@<hidden> aswell) and it is a challenge to be clear minded in this world of propaganda. That's why I vote at the center.

I still have to witness one single poll to which the JBers answered correctly, none until now. Funny enough when it comes to observe the reality I am right on a great variety of subject, and still I am explained again and again how much I am wrong by people failing to observe what is really going on, it is called denial. I have even been initially insulted on subjects on which reality proved me right afterwards...

There is still 10 more days though, let's wait a bit...

KAG

lay off the vino for a day and come back and post something that can be understood.You just may have a valid point if we could understand what it is.

Thing is though, KAG, Greece is a basket case, and I think, so is the Euro in its present construct.

The guesses as to the timing of its demise are just that, guesses. But the outcome is all but inevitable. It doesn't work for the industrial economies of the North to have their economic viability determined by the peripheral economies of the South. And that's only a small part of the problem.

Lomaposeo: I apologize (apologise with a "s" acceptable too right?).


Let's try again: After the numerous JB polls, debats, discussions concerning a variety of subjects (Gold, Barack Obama, Greece...) it seems that most of the JB posters are a posteriory (latin acceptable right? It means "from the later" or something like that) mainly wrong.

It would be very welcomed to see on this forum some more modesty and flexibility when it comes to explain our view of the world, keeping in mind that by experience we know now that most of the time later the reality doesn't match the initial "prediction".


Sorry for the mistakes, I have not used google or anything else, I ve just tried to re-write my post above alone (I could have asked my wife, even if she is Asian her english is better than mine, but didn't, she is getting ready we are going out).
I hope this is clear enough and well understood.

I know I should make more effort when writting here.

she is getting ready we are going outThat should give you plenty of scope for having lots of time!

Seriously KAG. Yes, the prediction that Greece would leave the Eurozone in 2012 was wrong, and no doubt you are gloating over your 'victory'. The point really is that Greece should leave the Eurozone, as stated by the majority of posters. You seem to be in a minority of one here.

Looking at the reasons why Greece is still in the Eurozone, first and foremost I would suggest that most, myself included, underestimated the complete and utter foolishness, profligacy, and obduracy of the politicians in Brussels who run it. I don't think most of us expected that they would keep it on life-support for so long and at such massive expense. They do so partly to protect their own necks, and partly because they possibly think that the cost of letting it break up is greater than the cost of keeping it going, both costs are clearly inestimable.

The cost to your country (I mean France, not China) is massive. France has one of the highest exposures to bad debt in the Eurozone and its banks are very vulnerable. Your new communist President is tightening the screws and trying to raise taxes everywhere, a policy, as discussed elsewhere, which is self-defeating and doomed to failure because he is targeting the wrong people.

Greece is still in the Eurozone, will be in it at the end of 2012, and probably 2013 too, but it is there as the result of the machinations of a bunch of politicians., and should never have been allowed to join.

Sooner or later .........

The point really is that Greece should leave the Eurozone

'should have' the ones in the know of economy say, but it's too late now. Alas.

An investment in the Athens stock exchange (index tracker) index at the end of June would give you a return of 90% in just 6 months time.

An investment in the Athens stock exchange (index tracker) index at the end of June would give you a return of 90% in just 6 months time.


yes but that is extremely high risk.. high return investment is high risk, though of course it's easy to play high risk markets when you're using OPM (other people's money), which is why the citizenry of the EU is being screwed left right and center, and they are simply an seemingly endless source of OPM.. of course its finite and in pretty much most cases the end of the line has been broached, now it's just computer code that is being used not hard cash.

I wonder if the Euro would have started if the countries who are in it knew then what they know now?? I doubt if the people would have voted for it..

I doubt if the people would have voted for it..

I love the implicit suggestion that citizens of the EU would be allowed to vote for anything and that their votes, if given, would count for anything against the might of Brussels.

Tableview is right about Pruners, they should have withdrawn.

Perhaps this should be renamed the Cassandra forum....



.

Tableview: Seriously KAG. Yes, the prediction that Greece would leave the Eurozone in 2012 was wrong, and no doubt you are gloating over your 'victory'.I have already seen you gloating without victory, so why shouldn't I? Especially considering everything I have been through with you and your Eurozone bashing.


1DC: Eurozone is only 12 years old, that's a baby, and its political system is not ready, even if its settings and diferent institutions are accelerating with the crisis (something I have seen coming and said years ago here on pprune).
Give it a rest, and give it some time, it was just born, the Eurozone in 2012 is not the Eurozone set for ever: it can only improve. (yes I know this is overrated to be positive, the doom and gloom, end of the world is much more fashionable...)

Your new communist President Francois Hollande a communist? Hahahahahaha!!!! :ok::ok::ok:

Tax cut on private companies, that's him. Austerity, that's him.

Ok let's be serious, let's explain for the ones who don't know him (I know for a fact you perfectly know France and speak french, so I will assume you were joking): he is a social democrat liberal, and the left wing in France consider him at the center. Center left wing I would say.

Will Greece leave the Eurozone in 2012?

In my humble opinion NO it will not.

I still have to witness one single poll to which the JBers answered correctly, none until now

Yes, this poll can be added to the long list of insightful threads predicting all things from the end of the World (courtesy of LHC, not some Mayan bean counters), that Israel will strike at Iran, and that house prices will rise forever.

So, about that wager...

46 answered correctly
259 answered incorrectly (including me)

Now you know where not to go for stock tips: me. :E

Suggest this thread be closed.

Lonewolf: the poll is already closed.
For once we have a thread concerning Euro/Greece in which everybody behave including people like table and hells, basically no trolling, and you want this thread closed?

Lonewolf: the poll is already closed.
For once we have a thread concerning Euro/Greece in which everybody behave including people like table and hells, basically no trolling, and you want this thread closed?

Yet you think it's acceptable to start trolling now............

Ok, KAG, I see your point. Sorry about that.