Norwegian media reporting RNoAF Hercules missing

[logopop]

Norwegian media is reporting that a Hercules departing Evenes (EVE) destined for Kiruna (KRN) has gone missing. Crew of five, scheduled to have arrived at 14.30 cet. Radar contact lost at 50nm west of KRN.
Norwegian newspaper VG:
Norsk Hercules-fly sporløst forsvunnet - VG Nett (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10079136)

[c130jbloke]

Sorry its not in english:

Norsk Hercules-fly sporløst forsvunnet - VG Nett (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10079136)



Not looking good at all.......:sad:

[baffman]

Report in English. Situation remains lost contact at around 1500 local time.

Norwegian Hercules plane missing in Sweden - The Local (http://www.thelocal.se/39694/20120315/)

[El_Presidente]

Bugger...


The Associated Press: Norway military plane goes missing during exercise (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hlAKqr-WIWKNmshh52fmyvuL479A?docId=2d9bb165cb6e4d7db56d52425bfd81f1 )

[roaldp]

Rescue operation in progress close to Kebnekaise, Sweden's highest mountain. Bad weather with rain an fog. Emergency signals rumored.
Kebnekaise - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kebnekaise)

[StopStart]

Bugger indeed :(

[Capt. Inop]

Press conference at ENDU right now, airplane located and crash confirmed.
All 5 on board are confirmed dead.

[seilfly]

That information was FALSE.

The search is still on, neither crew or A/C has been found

[Capt. Inop]

seilfly That information was FALSE.

The search is still on, neither crew or A/C has been found


Yeah, VG just got it on the front page.

[rpetersson]

Any theories of what might have happend?

[El_Presidente]

This is the terrain ... in summer...

kebnekaise - Google Maps (http://g.co/maps/4v4g8)

[logopop]

Search is going on in mountainous terrain, unidentified heat signatures were seen from F16's, but unconfirmed whether they are related. Helicopters are underway to check out a possible beacon, weather conditions are not good. The C130 is one of four new aircraft that were delivered just a couple of years ago.
No speculation as to possible causes yet.

[Duncan D'Sorderlee]

Here's hoping!

Duncs:ok:

[pappabagge]

Swedish media reporting that a Royal Norwegian Air Force F-16 had picked up faint heat traces at three different points in the presumed area. A Danish SAR helicopter also reports having picked up a "faint ELT signal" from the same area. Last positive contact was at 13:43 UTC, so in daylight and in an area notorious for 'mountain waves'. Norway's Armed Forces Minister earlier in the day dropped a bollock by confirming "all on board dead", only having to retract this statement later.

[M609]

It looks grim for the crew :(

Vg.no has released a map used by the search parties with last known position marked in the middle.

http://www.vg.no/uploaded/image/2012/3/15/kart1.jpg

[dead_pan]

This is the terrain ... in summer...

Done some walking along the stretch of the Kungsleden near Kebnakaise (Sweden's highest mountain). There are quite a lot of open spaces and lakes in the surrounding valleys. Here's hoping indeed.

[mayorofgander]

What the guys above said....Bugger!

MOG:(

[roaldp]

Orion surveillance plane confirmed "heat signatures" in the area at 05:07 hrs CET. Weather somewhat improved at daylight, still restricted visibility according to Norwegian TV2 news.
Not the best forecast for this Friday:
Hourly forecast for Kebnekaise Sydtopp, Norrbotten (Sweden) (http://www.yr.no/place/Sweden/Norrbotten/Kebnekaise_Sydtopp/hour_by_hour.html)

[Avionker]

Air search was called off for the night, due to poor visibility, but the ground search teams kept going. Helicopters were due back up at 0700 local this morning.

[FlightCosting]

Bad weather slows hunt for lost Hercules plane (http://www.thelocal.se/39696/20120316/)



So far, no emergency signals from the missing plane have been detected.

"For some reason, it hasn't been set off. Either the crash was so violent or so terrible that it was knocked out of operations by the impact, but there is also an emergency signal transmitter in the life vests but those must be switched on by hand and for that, you have to be conscious," said Hammarlöf.

The aircraft went missing when it was on its way from Evenes in northern Norway (http://www.thelocal.se/tag/norway) to Kiruna (http://www.thelocal.se/tag/kiruna) in the far north of Sweden.

At the time, the Hercules was was participating in the Cold Response military training exercise taking place over northern Norway which was scheduled to run from March 12th to March 21st and included 16,000 soldiers from 15 countries.

"There was a crew of four on board as well as an extra officer. Their mission was to fly from Evenes to Kiruna to pick up materiel and personnel and fly back to Norway," Harald Sunde, head of the Norwegian Armed Forces told Norwegian news agency NTB

[pappabagge]

Three of the four SAR helicopters available in the area grounded due inclement weather. It's been foul up there overnight, but land-based patrols in teams of four have been making progress, in constant contact with AWACS. Strange that not one ELT signal has been caught - that's one out of a possible six (acft plus lifejackets - if they were worn; this was an overland military flight). Acft was the newest of four C130J Super-Hercules the RNAF have had in operation since August 2010. High-ranking, highly-skilled crew on board.

[roaldp]

More than 100 people involved in search operation. Snow scooter patrol did not find anything at location of heat signals. Search area is 5 km long, west of Kebnekaise including its two summits. Swedish newspaper has published names of missing persons, among them one female:
Här kan planet finnas - Nyheter - Kuriren - Norrbottens-Kuriren (http://www.kuriren.nu/nyheter/default.aspx?articleid=6349054)

[roaldp]

Names and pictures of missing crew officially released:
http://1.vgc.no/drfront/images/2012/03/16/w=988;h=354;33525.jpg
Dette er de savnede etter flystyrten - VG Nett om Forsvaret (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10079154)

[Avionker]

Helicopters grounded due to weather, they launched but had to turn back. Weather is too bad to get to the mountain tops, ground search teams restricted to valleys for the moment.

[roaldp]

Great avalanche risk in search area. Recent live feed from helicopter landing:
VGTV (http://www.vgtv.no/#!id=50577)

[green granite]

The problem in that sort of terrain is that one good snowfall and the crash site becomes perfectly camouflaged from the air and I would imagine getting into some of the small valleys on foot could be a problem if not impossible.

[Rick Studder]

Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet now reports that rader observations showed the aircraft descending, then climbing before radar contact was lost. Also, the a/c was supposedly on the south side of the tall mountain range Kebnekaise, as opposed to on the north side as expected. There is speculation that the a/c was off course and might have been flying less then 200 AGL.

The information is from the Swedish leader of the rescue operation, himself a pilot. If this is correct its hard not to think CFIT.

[dukof]

Animation of route: VGTV (http://www.vgtv.no/#!id=50584)

Two last observations showed altitude of 7200 feet (civilian radar), then shortly after at 7600 feet (military radar).

The two highest mountain peaks here are about 2100 meter, so ~6900 feet.

Varmesignatur var ikke savnet fly - VG Nett om Forsvaret (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10079158)

[El_Presidente]

Rick -

Or fin stall; icing; wind sheer...

:(

[roaldp]

The area on a better day:
http://1.vgc.no/drfront/images/2012/03/16/c=32,8,937,655;w=738;h=516;33556.jpg

Names mainly in Lappish (Sami language):
http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207105/20710575/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[Horror box]

The situation out there seems to be still very dynamic and challenging with hurricane force winds and very bad visibility. However, the latest now is that an Orion is reporting to have spotted some "orange colour" on the ground in the search area. There is definitely still hope. They are equiped with survival equipment that will allow them to wait out the worst of the weather until search and rescue becomes easier. All available resources are being used, with a large number of aircraft including Sea King, F16, AWACS, Orion and other civil rotary assets as well as snowscooter patrols on the ground at present. Let us all hope and pray for the best and that they are all safe and well on the news later, with a good story to tell.

[roaldp]

The observation of an orange-coloured part was made by a Norwegian Orion in the north-eastern corner of the search area. Helicopters are investigating, now even joined by two Danish Merlins.
The missing crew is trained and equipped to survive for days in harsh winter conditions.
The situation at 1500 CET according to local newspaper:
# F16 airborne
# Orion airborne
# American Hercules airborne
# British AIWACS "Hawkeye" airborne
# Swedish rescue 301 (Super Puma) airborne
# Lifeguard 906 returned to Kiruna
# Saver 20 (Norwegian Sea King) on ground i Kiruna.
# Four Norwegian Bell 414 on their way.
# Two Swedish HKP15s on their way from Malmen.

[EliasFransen]

For you with knowledge in the nordic languages, I can recommend this page to get a more official news feed, directly from the JRCC. Probably a little more reliable than the ordinary newspapers. Norskt Hercules-plan saknas mellan Evenes (Narvik) och Kiruna - Sjofartsverket (http://sjofartsverket.se/sv/Om-oss/Organisation/Affarer/Sjo--och-Flygraddningscentralen/JRCC-Online/Norskt-Hercules-plan-saknas-mellan-Evenes-Narvik-och-Kiruna/?RescueType=1&Status=1&Period=2)

[baffman]

Agreed, 'Just this once'.

Having Nordic family connections myself and having had the very great honour of serving alongside Norwegian and Swedish forces in theatre, I am delighted although not surprised to see this extent of inter-allied cooperation and like everyone else I can only hope for a good outcome.

[Wander00]

Have had several contacts with the Norwegians, including exchange visit to their Academy at Trondheim (in 84 and my head still hurts) and hosted their King at "my" Yacht Club. Fabulous people - my fingers and toes are crossed and since, unusually, I am in Church tomorrow, maybe even a prayer. Good luck to the crew and the searchers

[cornish-stormrider]

Aaah Bugger.

Here's hoping they are huddled up trying to stay warm and waiting.......
Not a happy time, BZ to all busting guts and moving the earth trying to find em.

[roaldp]

Norwegian news on two channels confirm that mountain climbers have found possible parts of wreckage smelling of kerosene on both sides of ridge.
The plane was brand new state-of-the-art, christened "Siv" in 2010 (Norwegian woman's name, incidentally shared by one of the missing crewmembers). It flew together with two other planes that turned back immediately when contact was lost. Wind at the time of the event was reported as 250 km/h, twice that of a "normal" hurricane, that should be 135 knots, is that possible?

[Skokholm]

It's unclear if any ELT has been heard. How many ELTs does a C130J carry? What type are they?
Do they have any portable radios on board as standard eqpt?

[El_Presidente]

Roaldp

I believe wind speeds can be affected by terrain particularly in and around narrow valleys - pressure differentials and so on.

This is why I think there may well have bee a localised effect on the wx and perhaps succumbed to wind sheer.

Fingers firmly crossed.

[M609]

Norwegian RCC North confirms that a Swedish ground search team has located something described as "..parts of a padded aircraft seat and som velcro soaked in kerozine"

[737forever]

If this realy is a CFIT accident,one question is obvious to me,is the EGPWS innstalled on the new series of Hercules?

[Fareastdriver]

Should you crash as a result of flying into severe atmospheric conditions it is not CFIT.

[StopStart]

Could've been a storm/squall accentuated by the high terrain? The METARs for ENEV show a storm passing through there with gusts up to 72kts (133kph) although their destination was CAVOK for most of the day with about 10kts. The scene of search weather is clearly dreadful at the moment

I've done quite a lot of low flying in Norway in the J model and the narrow valleys funnelling wind can make it extremely bumpy, even on "nice" days - much more so than the Welsh and Scottish we're normally used to.

Without wishing to engage in too much conjecture at this phase of the SAR, the radar returns shown show a pretty gradual rate of climb, clear of the high ground. One wonders if they then encountered a massive shear/rotor, given the suggested wind speed, as they crested over the high ground?

The J has a single ELT - can't remember how long the battery lasts but it is a good while. It is also very well equipped with GPWS, TAWS, a digital moving map and an extremely effective mapping mode on the wx radar. The J also a big surplus of power at most times, certainly enough to out climb the terrain described and identified in the posts above. Given all that, coupled with my experience of the professionalism and high standards of the RNoAF, I'd be very surprised if this was a "simple" CFIT event.


Still hoping they'll come up with some good news.......
:(

[Newforest2]

Wreckage located, searching for crew.

Wreckage found in plane crash search - The Local (http://www.thelocal.se/39718/20120316/)

[737forever]

Well I was talking about controlled flight into terrain as another forum member speculated on.

[CancelIFR]

Negative! wreckage is NOT found at this moment, just a few "items" that apparently smell of karozine...

[roaldp]

Swedish rescue central confirms that search was resumed at 05:07 hrs CET this Saturday morning with two Norwegian Bell 412 helicopters.
100 soldiers and 20 rescue workers ready for action.
Weather forecast looks better today (Link updated hourly):
Hourly forecast for Kebnekaise Sydtopp, Norrbotten (Sweden) (http://www.yr.no/place/Sweden/Norrbotten/Kebnekaise_Sydtopp/hour_by_hour.html)

http://ap.mnocdn.no/incoming/article6786840.ece/ALTERNATES/w780c169/FS00020246.jpg?updated=170320120754

Archive photo of the area on a clear winter's day:
http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207203/20720365/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[roaldp]

Swedish Air Rescue Central reports at 09:00 hrs that a ground-based rescue team has found "wreckage parts scattered over a wide area" on the west side of the North/South summit of Kebnekaise. The positions marked in this map should be seen as preliminary.
vg.no reports at 10:00 hrs that the discovery was made by Norwegian military ground crew at an elevation of 1500 metres.
Markings on map:
Förmodat vrak 07:20 = Presumed wreckage
Oranga delar = Orange parts
Ev fynd markpersonal??? = Possible discovery ground crew???
Grå vadd och kardborrerem = Grey padding and Velcro strap

http://www.sjofartsverket.se/pages/0/C130c.png

[M609]

Google translate of aftenposten.no (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=no&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fnyheter%2Firiks%2F--Flere-vrakrester-fra-det-savnede-flyet-funnet-6786864.html%23.T2Rc_2Kuj4N&act=url)

From VG:

We have found wreckage, and we have a crash site. There are thousands of pices of wreckage spread over a large area, said Haakon Bruun-Hanssen, head of the military's operational headquarters,

Location indicated in this image

http://3.vgc.no/drfront/images/2012/03/17/c=8,8,818,380;w=738;h=343;33645.jpg

[M609]

Norwegian TV2 showing video from P-3 taken this morning showing debries on and below the col between the north and south summit.

Looks bad :(

[phlyer2]

aw shi.

I guess most of us were expecting something like that, whilst hoping we wouldnt actually hear it.

[Duncan D'Sorderlee]

Not good!:(

RIP.

Duncs:ok:

[M609]

Picture taken by the special forces team that located the crash site this morning.

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207238/20723851/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[TowerDog]

It is also very well equipped with GPWS, TAWS,

Yeah but does it have EGPWS as standard equipment, or is the E an option that may not have been choosen by the Norwgian Air Force.?

A regular GPWS may not have been of much use approaching a vertical cliff face but an EGPWS with the terrain data base should have given plenty of warning.

How about Flight Recorder and Voice recorder, standard equipment in military planes..?

[Rick Studder]

How about Flight Recorder and Voice recorder, standard equipment in military planes..?

They are supposedly looking for both, so yes.

Some journalist talked about the possibility of the Hercules doing tactical flying. I assume that is misinformed speculation, given the weather conditions at the time.

[StopStart]

It's not an EGPWS as such however it does have a TAWS database which displays relevant proximate terrain graphically. The TAWS also has a Tactical Mode which operates at a higher resolution giving less nuisance alerts than the 1km blocks of the standard TAWS; I don't know if the Norwegians used this mode.

This is the TAWS display approaching terrain.

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h64/judgesaw/TAWS.jpg

The GPWS in it's Tactical mode is effective and having flown the J myself for the last 10 years I've seen how it operates many times, both on Ops in Afghanistan and Iraq and in low level training in the UK, USA, ME and Norway. Sure, it won't stop you flying into a sheer, 90 degree vertical cliff but the accident terrain coupled with recorded radar returns suggest that wasn't the case here.

"Siv" was only delivered in July 2010. The J is a modern, well equipped and powerful aircraft (much more so than the 737 I'm now currently battling with). The C130J is FAA certified and has both data and flight recorders.

:(

[truckflyer]

Utdrag fra VG:
Radarmålinger viser at flyet befant seg mellom 2.194 meter og 2.316 meter over bakken. Kebnekaise er 2.111 meter på det høyeste punktet.

Er militær fly fritatt fra å holde MOCA, som her skulle minst vært 2000 ft over Kebnekaise?

Tragisk, bare undrer meg hvorfor de fløy så lavt!

Sorry just putting it English, from the newspaper VG (Online) they say the Radar shows that the aircraft was at approx. 2194 - 2316 meter altitude, while the mountain Kebnekaise is 2111 m at it's highest point.

I was just wondered if military aircraft do not have to stay at MOCA, which should have been 2000 ft above mountainous areas?
It is tragic, just wondering why they was flying at such a low altitude.

RIP

[TowerDog]

Thanks for the replies Rick Studder and StopStart.

Looks like the aircraft had all the equipment then and sans an explosion, or 3 engine failures, there is no reason they should have been below the terrain.

I do most of my flying in South America in mountainous terrain and have had a few last minute pull-ups myself thanks to the EGPWS. It does wake you up...:sad:

Some newspaper reported the C-130 was in climb when it disapearred from radar.

[StopStart]

Using the radar returns and Google Earth I've plotted the salient points. The line assumes staying at 7600ft which obviously wasn't their intention. Even maintaining the assumed rate of climb from the returns they would have crossed the summit at 8100ft. One doesn't know that they weren't being affected by shear/turbulence etc at the time of radar returns....

http://i61.photobucket.com/albums/h64/judgesaw/siv2.jpg

If this had been a VFR transit (low level or not) then they could well have seen reducing weather ahead and commenced a climb up to the their MSA/MOCA which would've been about 8900ft. The only thing I can assume at this stage is that they encountered a catastrophic weather event as they crested the ridge. Even the loss of an engine (on an empty aircraft like this) wouldn't have been a massive drama....

Remember, this was a military exercise. They may well have departed IFR but then once clear of the wx at ENEV, cancelled and gone VFR and possibly even descended into Low Level for the remainder of the transit. The TAF at destination gave no indication of anything untoward apart from the gusts increasing.
TAF ESNQ 151130Z 1512/1521 20015KT CAVOK
TAF ESNQ 151430Z 1515/1522 20015G25KT CAVOK

Similarly the TAF on departure didn't hint at anything unusual for Norway in March:
TAF ENEV 151100Z 1512/1521 21015KT 9999 -SHRA FEW008 BKN020 TEMPO 1512/1521 21025G35KT 4000 SHRA BKN012

:(

[M609]

Google translate (a bit dodgy) of a interview with a Gripen pilot airborne in the area at the time of the accident.

Google translate from vg.no (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=no&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Fartikkel.ph p%3Fartid%3D10079319&act=url)

[M609]

Press conference now.

Police says rescue operation suspended at 17:30 local time, partial human remains located in a avalance at the base of the mountain.
All five crew assumed dead.

Next of kin informed earlier.

RIP guys :(

[roaldp]

According to the newly held press conference, operation has been downgraded from rescue to search, according to Norwegian news from two channels.
The plane flew straight into the western side of the mountain at full speed, exploded, and triggered an avalanche. Wreckage parts are found in the remains of the avalanche; most parts are the size of stationary. All traces are covered with newly fallen snow.
Some body parts have been found by mountain rescue dogs and will be tested for DNA.
Wreckage parts were also flung over onto the other side of the mountain.
There are constant avalanches in the area. The glaciers are full of crevasses.

http://static.vg.no/bildespesial/8744/1332008240.75437.jpg

[El_Presidente]

That sucks. Spent too much time with Alberts for this not to hurt. Looking at the photos seems they were almost clear of the ridge.

RIP

:(

[M609]

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207290/20729018/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[Fareastdriver]

Even without severe wind conditions flying in Norway in winter can have its problems.
Back in the late seventies I was flying from Voss across the interior to an area that was in a valley with stacks of railways, roads and a town. It was a gin clear day with no wind so navigation was easy; point it in the right direction and after 45 minutes you will arrive.
I was sitting there; ThiB & MiN looking at a ridge ahead that was the nearside of the valley I was heading for. AllofaSudden the radalt 50' ft warning went off and the shadow of a snowdrift flashed past me. The scenery behind me then registered as a snow covered ridge. I had flown over it without even realising it was there.
I have heard stories, and I can believe them, of people sitting in an aircraft that has just come to a stop for no reason until they realise that they have flown into snowbank.
It is difficult flying in Norway, especialy during the winter and I am in full admiration for those that do it all the time. May they rest in peace.

[Cows getting bigger]

Yes, featureless terrain can really bite. I recollect that Keith Collister succumbed to a similar effect with sand dunes in the immediate run-up to GW1 whilst low level in his Jaguar.

Very sad to hear today's news. As someone who was fortunate enough to head North of the Artcic Circle every February I always enjoyed the Scandinavian exercises. Without exception, excellent hosts.

[Dengue_Dude]

Doesn't the J have EGPWS? That usually 'plot's high ground and your proximity to it?

Sad day either way.

[billynospares]

As a member of the worldwide C-130J community all I can say is I am gutted and RIP herc mates

[Chugalug2]

Ex K driver here and very sorry to hear this tragic news. RIP to those that are lost, so sad for those who are left to grieve.

[spitfiremk9]

This is a terrible accident.

My thoughts goes to the crew`s families. Surely they all must suffer from their loss of a family member.

There are a lot of speculations through this tread. Its only natural, because we all want to know what happend.

In my mind, I would like to rise a few questions.

What where this aircraft doing there? They new where they where going. That mission was approved by a squadron leader. or their leading officer. They had been going through the route before the flight
Did they follow a low level route and became lost and choose the wrong wally?
A Jas Gripen pilot stated that he flew in the same area just after the C130 contact was lost, and he could see the mountain peaks was in the clouds. I know that the landscape can change totally when low clouds covers mountain tops and side wallys.
Could the crew of the C-130 have flown into a wally, thinking this was initially the right place, but in the last second to realize that they where not, and immediately executed a climb? Having realized that the only way out of this wally was to climb?
I would assume that an aircraft with so powerful engines and without any load, would be able to climb like an elevator? Did they initiate the climb too late?
Where there problems with the aircraft? Engine failures. of some sort perhaps, No radio com`s states that there might have been one.
Fact is that nearby people have heard a load bang at the time, when contact of Siw was lost.
Fact is they have hit the mountain peak at great speed, due to the spread of the wreckage, and parts, and the size of the wreckage parts as well.
Will they be able to locate the CVR, and FDR? Since no ELT was set off, was the impact so high, that everything was smashed to atoms?
The impact relased an avalange and the following storm have erased the tracks in wich angle the plane have hit the mountain side.
Unless they locate a fully working FDR and or CVR, we will never know for sure what really happen.

My deepest condolences goes the families, and may your loved ones rest in peace.

sincerly...

[StopStart]

http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5223/5564133050_aec3ace0a8.jpg

Hvil i fred :(

[roaldp]

Norwegian Broadcasting radio news this Sunday morning at 06:00 reports that the crew was flying with the autopilot off, and that there were no known technical malfunctions with the plane. The flight was on a routine mission from Evenes in Norway to Kiruna in Sweden to pick up personnel and cargo before returning, and was already on approach ("under innflyvning") to land at Kiruna. The usual flight path is well north of the mountains, where the actual altitude would be normal.
A Hercules following 10 minutes behind reported that they were allowed to "fly tactical" (manually) if weather permitted. Weather was changing fast, but was probably better before the accident than previously reported.
More details in the link below from Aftenposten.no, where Google Translate may replace "Evenes" with "Glasgow". All heights are originally stated in meters, not feet:
Google Oversetter (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fnyheter%2Firiks%2F--Sannsynligvis-floy-de-taktisk-6787085.html%23.T2V3jMUaNOo)

Original article in Norwegian here:
- Sannsynligvis fløy de taktisk - Aftenposten (http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/--Sannsynligvis-floy-de-taktisk-6787085.html#.T2V3jMUaNOo)

Nordic pilots are, of course, familiar with the whiteout-effect and other winter conditions. Moreover, the height of mountains is part of primary school teaching in both Norway and Sweden. Kebnekaise is well-known even to civilians.
The emergency transmitter HAS been found, but was not working and will be investigated. Search continues for the FDR and CVR with hopes that they have survived the impact.

Better weather forecast for this Sunday:
Hourly forecast for Kebnekaise Sydtopp, Norrbotten (Sweden) (http://www.yr.no/place/Sweden/Norrbotten/Kebnekaise_Sydtopp/hour_by_hour.html)

http://ap.mnocdn.no/incoming/article6786999.ece/ALTERNATES/w780c169/FS00020286.jpg?updated=170320121755

[truckflyer]

From Dagbladet /Norway:
"Oberstløytnant Sølna er imidlertid sikker på at ulykken ikke skyldes teknisk feil på flyet, som var nøye sjekket på forhånd. "

Ulykkesflyet skulle bli angrepet av jagerfly - nyheter - Dagbladet.no (http://www.dagbladet.no/2012/03/18/nyheter/utenriks/flyulykke/hercules-flyene/hercules_c-130j_c130j_c_130j/20731346/)

Translated it says:
"Colonel- Lieutenant Sølna is sure the accident was not due to a technical fault with the aircraft, as the aircraft was properly checked in advance"

Should not Mr Sølna leave these conclusions to the Accident Investigation Team? What an arrogant attitude, to come out with such a comment at this early stage!

Coming out now is that the aircraft was probably flying tactical, weather was good, expecting fighter planes to "attack" it, but they was 100 Km away from the Hercules, and Officer Sølna is sure certain there was NO technical issues with the aircraft!

What an easy job for AI than!

[cefey]

RIP :(
Even though it was highly unlikely, I was hoping till the end they would survive:(

I dont like speculating on that subject, but taking crew experience and that plain was new (tech. fault unlikely), I would assume something with wind shear, that plain was not able to overcome.

According to radars, they did loose a lot of altitude right before they disappeared and impact was high speed (not best glide speed). As well, weather did change a lot during that time (plane that flew 10min before them, reported perfect weather).

Anyhow, it is incredibly sad. It remind for all of us, that we must execute a lot of caution and be careful. My deepest condolences to family, friends and 335 squadron.
RIP

[Rick Studder]

We now know they were flying tactical, VFR. The mounstainside where they impacted is covered in snow, combine that with changing weather and visibility... makes you think of whiteout. Furthermore, the mountainside is shaped like a semicircle. Having flown in there in the first place, it's like a trap...

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207315/20731560/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[StopStart]

Given the radar altitude returns, I don't think CFIT, whiteout and hidden ridges etc are to blame here. Assuming they are accurate (and if they're not then all bets are off), the radar returns show the aircraft in a gradual climb already established above the altitude of the top of the mountain. The weather wasn't necessarily good and indeed the Gripen pilot reported the mountain to be covered in cloud at the time of the loss and other contemporaneous reports suggest very strong winds & poor weather in the area. The rescuers couldn't reach the area for some time due to the weather.

I am still of the opinion (for what it's worth) that they either saw the deteriorating weather ahead so elected to pull out of low level and climb to MSA or were climbing to pick up a radar service for recovery into Kiruna. There was probably no intention of routing via any of the IFR STARs - I certainly wouldn't have been considering the STARs if looking for a radar pick up to vectors ILS or visual. Assuming the altitude and wind reports are correct I can only assume that they either encountered a very large down-draught, very sudden severe icing or very intense lateral shear from which recovery was not possible. There may well have been some technical failure that coincided with their cresting Sweden's biggest mountain but I'm not convinced. Only a structural failure, massive icing or the loss of thrust on three or more engines would bring the aircraft down to the altitude at which it struck the ridge.

As long time J pilot I'm very interested in the cause of (and saddened by) this loss. This sort of sortie profile is the "bread and butter" of a tactical transport aircraft like the C130J which, despite being the same size (and a bit heavier) than a 737, is operated in a totally different way to similar civilian aircraft. Discussions of autopilots and IFR arrivals are irrelevant. Many of us, this crew included, spend/spent much of our time operating down at around 100m AGL, in the valleys, around, under and through bad weather and are familiar with the all the risks and traps that can lead CFIT. Familiarity doesn't automatically grant one immunity but, based on the altitude returns, weather reports, crew experience and equipment fit on the J, I just don't believe CFIT, whiteout etc were factors here. :(

Rick Studder - radar showed them being nearly 1000ft above the impact point 2 miles before it. Even at 180kt turbulence speed the aircraft would of have to have entered a 1500-2000fpm descent to get to the impact point from it's last radar return. It would take something pretty serious to bring that on....

[Rick Studder]

Rick Studder - radar showed them being nearly 1000ft above the impact point 2 miles before it. Even at 180kt turbulence speed the aircraft would of have to have entered a 1500-2000fpm descent to get to the impact point from it's last radar return.

A good point. But looking at the Google Earth plot in your previous post I presume the point at 7600 feet is the last radar return -- what were they doing at that altitude in that mountainous terrain? Seems to me they were below MSA at that point too...

[StopStart]

Yes they were but (I assume) they had initiated a climb to MSA earlier as they had seen deteriorating weather ahead. If they'd been down at low level (300ft) beforehand then the climb would take a finite period of time, obviously. An empty C130J on a cold day has a very good rate of climb and so it would seem the climb was initiated early enough and that they would have achieved their MSA shortly after the last radar return. That said, they may well have already encountered severe turbulence and have been slowing back to turbulence speed - instinctively with a reduction of power rather than increase in pitch. especially if there had been a rapid onset of severe turbulence. They knew they were already about 700ft above the highest terrain and climbing.

What this does perhaps illustrate (and it's bad enough me engaging in all this speculation anyway - apologies) is quite why MSA is terrain +2000ft in mountainous regions. The orographic effects over mountainous terrain spread upwind, downwind and vertically upwards for some considerable distance. The BAOC 707 that crashed near Mt Fuji back in the 1960s demonstrated that when it lost its tail encountering standing wave turbulence....

I knew one of the crew, albeit only by acquaintance, but can say that this crew were experienced professionals well versed in throwing big aircraft around at low level in the snow covered mountains. Whilst even the best pilots make mistakes I firmly believe, on the evidence available, that they simply encountered a severe weather event about which they could do nothing.

[M609]

if looking for a radar pick up to vectors ILS or visual.

No radar at Kiruna, all procedural.

The radar tracks released are probably from MIL or CIV sensors in Norway or a MIL sensor in Sweden. Best bet is the Norwegian MIL sensor at Njunis, at 5600ft elevation, approx 68 45N 019 29E. Before anyone cries foul about the location, it´s been in the media several times.
Then there is E-3

During the memorial service at Evens today, the head of the Norwegian joint operational HQ said "..the aircraft left a holding pattern west of Kiruna" at time XX:ZZ..."

Nothing more said about flight rules, but several soruces has now confirmed that they where flying "tactically", but the Norwegian air force says this afternoon that no fighter affiliation was planned.

[roaldp]

Norwegian Broadcasting Corp.'s 1900 hrs news quoted rumours that the accident aircraft participated in a bigger attack simulation, although it was instantly denied that the plane itself was attacked. Google Translate continues to call Evenes airport for Glasgow. Original rumour here:
Google Oversetter (http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=no&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://www.dagbladet.no/2012/03/18/nyheter/utenriks/flyulykke/hercules-flyene/hercules_c-130j_c130j_c_130j/20731346/&usg=ALkJrhiMJEk4-Kom1lGvWQLhxugHcutcbA)

Denial here:
Google Oversetter (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagbladet.no%2F2012%2F03%2F18%2Fnyheter%2 Fhercules_c-130j_c130j_c_130j%2Fflystyrt%2Fforsvaret%2Futenriks%2F207359 83%2F)

[Easy Street]

Whilst the radar altitude returns might appear to show that the aircraft was above the height of the peaks shortly before the accident, that might not have actually been the case. Presumably these altitudes came from IFF Mode C returns, which are based on 1013.2mb. If the actual pressure was significantly lower (either due to weather systems or local orographic effects) then it might well have been the case that the aircraft was below the peak altitude all along. So this data will need deeper analysis before being treated as conclusive.

[M609]

Video taken from the bottom of the avalanche zone/debries field

- Her krasjet «Siv» inn i fjellveggen - nyheter - Dagbladet.no (http://www.dagbladet.no/2012/03/18/nyheter/hercules/flystyrt/kebnekaise/20737621/)

http://ap.mnocdn.no/incoming/article6787580.ece/ALTERNATES/w780c169/FS00020387.jpg?updated=180320121949

[Rick Studder]

Some of what the Swedish policeman says in the video: They assume the aircraft has flown alongside the glacier before hitting the mountain. Debris found also on the other side of the mountain. Point of impact probably just a few meters below the ridge of the mountain. Very tragic indeed.

[StopStart]

Easy Street - you are of course quite correct, we don't know the basis of the radar returns and as such I'd caveated all my musings on the basis of them being valid. I was under the impression however that ATC radars corrected for local barometric pressure/QNH though? That might explain the difference between the military 7200ft readout and the civil one at 7600? No idea. Yet more speculating, apologies.

For interest's sake, QNH at ESNQ at the time was was 1001 and had been falling by about 1mb an hour all day. QNH at ENEV was 998 and had been also dropping at the same rate all day.

Anyway, It's all now in the hands of the experts now who have a lot more facts to hand than we do.

[Rick Studder]

Heavy turbulence in the area at the time of the crash. From a Norwegian newspaper: Hercules aircraft may have been surprised by the strong turbulence (http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&hl=no&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=no&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://www.dagbladet.no/2012/03/19/nyheter/innenriks/hercules/flyulykke/kebnekaise/20738922/&usg=ALkJrhja19Sl4Stf_w48lRS-q8LeCn8r0g)

[OKOC]

A horrendous job for the recovery teams too--RIP all--such a shame so close to safety for the crew.

[spitfiremk9]

They (swedish NTSB)) now say that they at this point, dont have anything that suggest`s tactical flying.

The information the commission have gathered so far say that the hercules didn t fly low.

tactical flying means that autopilot is off and they follow the terrain to avoid radar.

Again, I have a few questions.

Why did the plane hit the mountain side so far up?
Why does it look like the aircraft was in a climb before impact?
From where was the plane coming from with regard to impact site?
What altitude does the plane seem to have been before entering this valley?
what speed does the plane seem to have before impact?
Does the weather have anything to do with the crash?

Why do I have e feeling that they are focusing on autopilot, and approch to kiruna, holding, etc...etc...?
There are meteorologist talking about wind conditions, there are director of operations in a company talking also about the wind conditions at Kebnekaise. I really dont know if that is relevant here.

personally I believe we have to look at the crash site. where is it?. why did the plane hit right there? why didnt they hit any of the other walls? why didnt the plane hit the top of kebnekaise?

I believe the answers lies with regard to the crash site.

[Farfrompuken]

From a couple of pictures earlier, there looks like to be a parallel valley to the right of the last few seconds of flight....

I know the J well, but am in no way knowledgeable of the met conditions, flight deck workload, EGI accuracy etc etc of that flight.

A very sad event. RIP.

[BOAC]

Why did the plane hit the mountain side so far up?
Why does it look like the aircraft was in a climb before impact?

Many many moons ago a wise old RAF instructor told me that the hills and mountains of the world were littered with a/c that didn't make it by those 50ft - and of course you hear far less of the one's that cleared them by 50ft.

There are many many possible causes and I'm not sure they will be established here - including white-out, orographic downdrafts, misjudgement and of course technical failure - which would be easier to establish. I have lost a few acquaintances who were in 'the wrong valley' in my time too.

[Thone1]

German "Flugzeugforum" reports that there were 3 transport aircraft flying.
First one was a German Transall reaching Kiruna without incident, second aircraft is the Hercules lost, third one (Herc?) returning due to bad weather.

I couldn´t find anything about the spacing between them but it surely was more than just a few minutes.

[M609]

More info from the Norwegian MOD today. They have released the planned route used by the crew, as well as the radar plots from NADGE. (CRC Sørreisa)

From here this article: Google translate from Forsvaret.no (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=no&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fforsvaret.no%2Faktuelt%2Fpublisert%2FSider%2F flyruten.aspx)

http://forsvaret.no/sites/artikkelbilder/PublishingImages/Planlagt%20flyrute%20Siv.jpg

http://forsvaret.no/sites/artikkelbilder/PublishingImages/Radarbilde%20fra%20CRC%20S%C3%B8rreisa.jpg

[Brosa]

When the plane was handed over from Sweden ctrl, the radar service was terminated.

According to the approach plate for runway 21 at Kiruna the lowest safe altitude there is 5300 ft, which is probably what they were cleared to descend to.

Focusing on the approach plate and being used to radar vectors, it is likely they forgot that ATC may clear you to an altitude that is below the MSA at your present position. Even if they were cleared to the airport MSA of 5300 ft, it was their own responsibility to make sure they were within 25 nm before doing that.

The crash happened about 40 nm out, where the MSA is 9000 ft.

[roaldp]

KIRUNA.
Work at the site of Kebnekaise has been canceled and will not resume for several days. The reason for this decision is the weather.
Low Rain impaired visibility on Tuesday and forecast speaks of strong winds and precipitation in the coming days. The Accident Investigation Board's own meteorologists in Sweden and Norway believe that the work on the site is impossible right now.
The police are now turning out all personnel in the area. However, there will be some people left even during the break for the planning and identification. It is unclear when work can resume. Weather is unlikely to improve until Sunday or Monday.

Webcam at Kebnekaise right now:

Webbkameror.se - Kebnekaise fjällstation, webbkamera, webbkameror, webkamera, webbkameror, webcam, webcams, livecam, livecams, väder, vädret (http://www.webbkameror.se/webbkameror/kebnekaise/index.php)

http://www.nsd.se/inc/imagehandler.ashx?id=6802374&height=312&width=468&quality=high

[M609]

339 Sqn RNoAF has been sling loading down collected aircraft parts down to the FARP where it´s locked into 20 foot ISO containers for further shipment by road to Kiruna. The Swedish AIBN has rented a hangar where the wreckage will be collected.

Heavier parts like engines will be slinged down using the Super Puma of the Swedish Armed forces.

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207693/20769373/jpg/active/978x.jpg

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207693/20769385/jpg/active/729x.jpg

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207693/20769369/jpg/active/729x.jpg

[roaldp]

(Google Translate messes up this Swedish newspaper article, so I took the liberty of improving it.)

Black boxes to the UK when found
100 people still working with search operation
Still hope that boxes will be found

KIRUNA.
The so-called black boxes from the crashed Hercules plane in Kebnekaise will be flown to Britain for analysis when they are found.

Kiruna (TT) The so-called black boxes from the crashed Hercules plane in Kebnekaise be flown to Britain for analysis when they are found. - We will send them by courier as soon as possible, says Agne Widholm at the (Swedish) Investigation Board. The boxes contain information on the Hercules plane's last flight, stored on hard drives. The Norwegian plane with five officers crashed on a mountainside on March 16 during an international military exercise in which Sweden participated.
About a hundred people are now working with the search for wreckage and remains of those killed. Agne Widholm is convinced that the so-called black boxes will be found. - It is not (a question of) if, but when we find them. There may be crevices that they have fallen into, but we do not really believe that, he says.
If the hard drives are found, the causes of the crash are likely to clarify. Agne Widholm has as yet no theory about what went wrong. - No, it's too early yet, we have some hypotheses that we gather more facts about, but we are still at that stage, he says.

The analysis of the hard drives are planned to take place at the British equivalent of the (Swedish) Investigation, Air accident Investigation Branch (AAIB).
- We will send them by courier as soon as possible, says Agne Widholm at the Swedish Investigation Board.

By TT (Sweden's National Wire Service)

Original article in Swedish here:
Svarta lådor till Storbritannien - - Nyheter - Norrländska Socialdemokraten - NORRLÄNDSKA SOCIALDEMOKRATEN (http://www.nsd.se/nyheter/artikel.aspx?ArticleId=6817468)

http://www.nsd.se/inc/imagehandler.ashx?id=6799416&height=312&width=468&quality=high

[StopStart]

Thanks for keeping us updated.

[M609]

Today the Norwegian SF Command released a picture taken by the SF operators that reached the wreckage on the first morning.

High up in one of the steep slope below the top of Sweden's highest mountain Kebnekaise, the Norwegian naval special forces found major parts of wreckage from the plane, "Siv".

While other search crews have stayed away because of difficult conditions, it took experts on alpine climbing from the Naval Forces in Ramsund to get up the steep and icy overhangs in Kebnekaise massif.

http://static.vg.no/uploaded/image/bilderigg/2012/03/28/1332963995802_564.jpg

[roaldp]

A Hercules from the Norwegian Air Force flew the same route today (Friday) to gather more information about possible causes for the accident. This time, Google Translate writes "Heathrow" for Oslo Airport Gardermoen.
Google Oversetter (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tv2.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Fkiruna-flyr-opp-ulykkesflyets-rute-3745688.html)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Kiruna: Flyr opp ulykkesflyets rute - TV 2 Nyhetene (http://www.tv2.no/nyheter/innenriks/kiruna-flyr-opp-ulykkesflyets-rute-3745688.html)

http://pub.tv2.no/multimedia/TV2/archive/00956/Hercules_Kiruna_956645i.jpg

[roaldp]

Several memory cards from the Hercules have been found and sent to the manufacturer for analysis. It is hoped that at least one of them still may contain the cash memory for the black boxes.
Approx. 20% of the wreckage has so far been recovered in the masses of snow from the avalanche.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dagbladet.no%2F2012%2F04%2F01%2Fnyheter%2 Fflystyrt%2Fflyulykke%2Fhercules-ulykken%2F20940864%2F)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Minnekort kan lse Hercules-gten - nyheter - Dagbladet.no (http://www.dagbladet.no/2012/04/01/nyheter/flystyrt/flyulykke/hercules-ulykken/20940864/)

http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/207/207378/20737811/jpg/active/978x.jpg

[GreenKnight121]

It is hoped that at least one of them still may contain the cash memory for the black boxes.

I really hope that you mean "cache memory"... being able to tell how much money was aboard would not be very helpful.

[StopStart]

:hmm:

I take that "cash" and wager all of it on his English being better than your Norwegian...

[GreenKnight121]

So because English is not his primary language we should halt his education in that language as "good enough" and not point out an error that confuses and clouds what he is trying to say?

Or should we gently show him the correct word, and why it makes a difference?

[VinRouge]

GreenKnight, stop being a ****. Roalp has been very kindly updating this thread with the latest factual information. If due to being foreign he happens to mis-spell a word or two so what? I do it on my Ipad all the time.


Are they looking for the DTC's or the fdr memory modules? Does the J have any form of QAR recorder too?

[roaldp]

All the five deceased have now been identified after DNA tests.
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tv2.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Falle-ofrene-etter-herculesulykken-identifisert-3752299.html)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Alle ofrene etter Hercules-ulykken identifisert - TV 2 Nyhetene (http://www.tv2.no/nyheter/innenriks/alle-ofrene-etter-herculesulykken-identifisert-3752299.html)

Parts of the a/c will be shown to the press this coming Friday:
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tv4.se%2F1.2606865%2F2012%2F04%2F11%2Fkra schade_herkulesdelar_visas_upp_pa_fredag_i_kiruna)

Original article in Swedish here:
Kraschade Herkulesdelar visas upp på fredag i Kiruna - Nyheter - tv4.se (http://www.tv4.se/1.2606865/2012/04/11/kraschade_herkulesdelar_visas_upp_pa_fredag_i_kiruna)

P.S.: Thanks for the support after my "slip of the keyboard". I have only studied or used some 11 languages, so I'm just a beginner.

[roaldp]

Norwegian Broadcasting Corporation (NRK) sent a special report this Thursday evening on the accident, in which Captain Bård Vereide for the first time gives several interesting details on the whole operation. He followed "Siv" in another Hercules named "Nanna". They were denied descent into Kiruna and ordered to return to search for the missing plane.

The low altitude of "Siv" was possibly caused by strong lee waves from the mountain, as a full-force storm was blowing. The Norwegian Air Force has used Hercules planes since the late 1960s and has never had any incidents or accidents with the type.

Google Translate continues to interpret Evenes Airport as "Glasgow".
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrk.no%2Fnyheter%2Fdistrikt%2Fnordland%2F 1.8069736)

Original article in Norwegian here:
– De vil alltid være med oss. Vi vil alltid huske dem - Nordland - NRK Nyheter (http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/distrikt/nordland/1.8069736)

Swedish and Norwegian newspapers previously quoted investigating officers saying that they so far had found "no technical faults" with the a/c. This statement sounds rather valueless when they still only have found 20% of the wreckage.
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Fartikkel.ph p%3Fartid%3D10057227)

[roaldp]

The 30 min. NRK report is now available on the net. Commentary in Norwegian without subtitles, but many interesting shots from the operation and the area. Also previous interview from 2010 with crew in the cockpit of "Siv".

Hopefully not blocked in your country due to copyright rules:
NRK Nett-TV - Flytragedien pa Kebnekaise (http://www.nrk.no/nett-tv/klipp/839871/)

[M609]

Video from the wreckage collection site (hangar) at Kiruna airport.

Hercules-styrten: Foreløpig rapport klar før sommeren - VG Nett om Hercules-ulykken (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10057385)

[roaldp]

The salvaged wreckage parts were shown to the press in Kiruna today. Their weight constitutes 25% of the total plane. The search operation will now be halted until summer. The "black boxes" have not been found and are probably buried under large amounts of snow and ice. The head of the Accident Investigation Board "believes with certainty that they are undamaged".

Google Translate messes up the headline. There is no "crash looking forward to summer".
A better variant would be:
The Hercules crash: Search operation pauses until summer.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.aftenposten.no%2Fnyheter%2Firiks%2FHercul es-styrten-Tar-pause-i-letearbeidet-frem-til-sommeren-6804108.html%23xtor%3DRSS-3)

http://ap.mnocdn.no/incoming/article6804288.ece/ALTERNATES/w780c169/FS00023475.jpg?updated=130420121223

[VinRouge]

just out of interest, was the cause and contributory factors surrounding the J crash at Pisa determined? I havent seen a report, I heard at the time they may have been practice assymetric?

[172_driver]

The Swedish AAIB has published a preliminary report with factual findings as of now, while the search for more clues continues. Apparently 28 % of the wreckage (measured in weight) has been found so far. Unfortunately it's in Swedish only.

Report: http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/reports/Preliminär%20faktasammanställning%202012-05-10.pdf

My personal reflection of what has been concluded so far:

- HAZE01 was cleared to descend to FL70 and eventually 5000 ft (never read back as it coincided with time of accident) while being outside of controlled airspace, outside of radar coverage and over terrain with higher MORA. The report estimates FL70 being the same level as the point of impact with a QNH of 1000. From reading the report it seems the phraseology was legitimate, though confusing, basically allowing the crew to descend whenever they deemed fit. Other reported occurrences within the airforce with confusing descent clearances are touched upon in paragraph 1.18.8 of the report.

- In paragraph 1.19.6 the AAIB has interviewed people within the Norwegian Airforce. The following information has been brought out:

1) The pilots generally assume that ATC is responsible for terrain separation while flying IFR on a Flight Level
2) The pilots are not aware that Flight Levels need to be corrected for variations in atmospheric pressure
3) The pilots are not aware it's their responsibility to determine lowest useable Flight Level with regards to actual or forecasted QNH

- A series (14 total) of reference flights has been made in good weather to see the reaction of the TAWS. In "normal mode" the TAWS seem to have reacted in a timely manner with Cautions and Warnings. In "tactical mode", supposedly with better resolution than normal mode, no Cautions or Warnings were obtained until passing the point of impact. However tactile mode not available north of latitude N60. Should be mentioned that the reference flights were abandoned approximately 1 nm before the ridge. It's described in paragraph 1.19.10

EDIT: Added some relevant pieces of information

[M609]

Quite a few in the Norwegian ATC community suspected the findings as outlined.

The rules regarding descend to MSA when performing procedural approach control, and the lack of understanding from crews about the validity of such clearences (or lack therof) regarding terrain clearence is not new.

:(

[roaldp]

Norwegian media are this Friday evening reporting that the plane was "told by the tower" to fly lower than the height of the mountain, making it sound like it was the tower's fault.
The black boxes will hopefully be found when the snow melts later this spring.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=no&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tv2.no%2Fnyheter%2Futenriks%2Fherculesfly et-bedt-om-aa-gaa-til-lavere-enn-kebnekaise-3779807.html)

[Cows getting bigger]

Sounds similar to the Ben McDui F15 crash some years back.

http://www.mod.uk/NR/rdonlyres/7400DAFD-6ED2-42D5-8858-5EB06C7BB513/0/boi_RAF_accident_sept01_redacted_part2.pdf

[roaldp]

Summer has been slow to arrive at Kebnekaise this year, and the snow will probably not melt until August, when the black boxes may be found.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrk.no%2Fnyheter%2Fdistrikt%2Fnordland%2F 1.8212771)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Snøen gjemmer fortsatt de «svarte boksene» - Nordland - NRK Nyheter (http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/distrikt/nordland/1.8212771)

http://gfx.nrk.no/YvOojTLxXpnasxHOydAIwALDEBKp1DZ-4yCFxDag2oEQ.jpg
Picture taken of crash site on June 16.

[StopStart]

Thanks for the update

[M609]

On another note, last friday the last member of the crew, Lt. Col Ørpen was buried in his home town of Noresund.

During the last 3-4 weeks the other members has been laid to rest in 4 separate cermonies. The mood at work (ATC) got sombre each time the C-130 and 4 F-16s arrived in the Oslo area, marshalling for the C-130 flyby followed by F-16s performing "Missing man" at the grave. :sad:

http://forsvaret.no/sites/artikkelbilder/PublishingImages/tktaC4790.jpg

[M609]

Search is back on: www.vg.no (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=no&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Fartikkel.ph p%3Fartid%3D10067359&act=url)

[roaldp]

Hercules plane's black box found at Kebnekaise

Mystery of the Norwegian Hercules plane that crashed against Kebnekaise is heading for its resolution, Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet reports.
On Saturday morning, the Army's Hunter Battalion found one of the plane's two black boxes, namely the Cockpit Voice Recorder.
"I saw something orange sticking up from the snow," says mountain guide Carl-Johan Olofsson.
Searching operation has been paused until snow melts, and summer has been unusually late in the area this year.

The Norwegian military plane crashed against Sweden's highest mountain, Kebnekaise, on March 15. All five crew members on board were killed.
The Army's Hunting battalion resumed search one week ago together with police and the Investigation Board.

"It's a very steep terrain where you have to lower yourself down with ropes to get anywhere," says Carl-Johan Olofsson.

Found in the snow
At 11 o'clock AM on Saturday the tough work gave results.
The plane's "voice recorder" was found on a steep field. Olofsson says the finding place is only a hundred meters from the crash point - where the Hercules was smashed to pieces.
"Pure coincidence made me see it sticking up from the snow. When I dug it up, I immediately saw the print with Voice Recorder on the device," says Carl-Johan Olofsson.
The device will be stored safely at the police station in Kiruna until it is sent for analysis to the English Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB).
The analysis is expected to take a week and may give vital answers.

http://gfx.aftonbladet-cdn.se/image/15213833/837/normal/5baf31996dc80/herculescollagew.jpg

Original report in Swedish here:
Herculesplanets svarta låda hittad vid Kebnekaise | Nyheter | Aftonbladet (http://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/article15213781.ab)

[roaldp]

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vg.no%2Fnyheter%2Finnenriks%2Fartikkel.ph p%3Fartid%3D10059079)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Norge får nytt Hercules-fly i september - VG Nett om Hercules-ulykken (http://www.vg.no/nyheter/innenriks/artikkel.php?artid=10059079)

[roaldp]

Swedish soldiers found the Flight Data Recorder Sunday afternoon; shortly after the Norwegian team had given up their search for now. The FDR will be sent to England for analysis together with the CVR found earlier.

(Sorry that Google Translate reclassifies the Swedish "mountain hunters" as "rock hunters".)
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nrk.no%2Fnyheter%2Fdistrikt%2Fnordland%2F 1.8278564)

Original article in Norwegian here:
Ferdsskriveren til det havarerte Herkules-flyet er funnet - Nordland - NRK Nyheter (http://www.nrk.no/nyheter/distrikt/nordland/1.8278564)

http://gfx.nrk.no/GLSAdCe7arYmhEZMOUVc1gmsm9wy2tA36G6BJCQ08uPQ.jpg

[roaldp]

The accident report will not be published until December, according to a spokesman for the Swedish Accident Investigation Commission. He refuses to comment on the contents found in the "black boxes" to avoid speculation.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nsd.se%2Fnyheter%2Fartikel.aspx%3FArticle Id%3D7098973)

[AAInvestigator]

The HAZE01 was not VFR, and not "tactical flying".

[roaldp]

Contents of the black boxes show that the plane's warning systems gave no alarms before the crash; probably because the systems already were set for the landing in Kiruna.
Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=no&sl=sv&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.svd.se%2Fnyheter%2Finrikes%2Fingen-varning-fore-kraschen_7750628.svd)

[TowerDog]

The final report is out: Human Error, but the full report is classified..:sad:

Link to Norwegian newspaper:

Svensk avis: Menneskelig svikt årsak til Hercules-ulykken - Aftenposten (http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Menneskelig-svikt-arsak-til-Hercules-ulykken-7291619.html#.Uhxvt-jD_mQ)

[roaldp]

The much-delayed final report is not out; it has been classified. But parts of it have been leaked to the small Swedish newspaper, Norrbottens Kuriren. According to this, the investigation does not assign blame to any single person(s) or circumstance, although it states that the flight control could have been more helpful.
The GPWS was turned off, and the newspaper tries to speculate why. Previous speculations have claimed that this GPWS will not work at that latitude. A proper explanation will hopefully be given when the whole report is published.

Google Translate (http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=no&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kuriren.nu%2Fnyheter%2F%3Farticleid%3D692 2691)

[TowerDog]

investigation does not assign blame to any single person(s)

Sooo, the P.I.C. is not responsible for flying a brand new airplane into a mountain?
If not, who is then? The Load Master?
The Air Traffic Controller?

How does that work then? A committee is responsible for the safety of the flight, but not the pilot..? :confused:

[chuks]

The safety investigation attempts to discover the cause of the crash.

The regulatory authorities may attempt to assign blame.

So, you can have a safety investigation that simply tells why an aircraft did a CFIT. Have a look at the report on that Sukhoi 100 Superjet crash in Indonesia, for instance, for an example of the "why."

Say you manage to survive a CFIT, as sometimes happens. Then you may find yourself, as the PIC, having that proverbial "chat without coffee" with whoever gives you permission to fly, if they find that you are to blame.

One quirk of these two systems is that CVR information may only be used, in the USA, for a safety investigation, not for an enforcement investigation. It will be interesting to see what happens with cockpit video recording, if that technology comes into common use.

[Rossian]

.....if you google nrk.tv and put in the search window "tragedeiren in kebnekaise" there is a shortish video doco about the accident. It's in Norwegian but oddly has subtitles which help a bit with comprehension. There is a particularly interesting explanation by the met man about 2/3 way through which gives a strong clue. You might consider modifying your judgement towerdog.

Best of luck.

The Ancient Mariner

[TowerDog]

You might consider modifying your judgement towerdog.

Best of luck.


Aye, no judgment, only questions.

Fluent in Norwegian and Swedish and have 35 years of flying under the belt.
The question still is: Who is responsible for terrain clearance?
ATC or PIC?

[rjtjrt]

Could the GPWS be turned off or just ignored because it gives so many nuisance false warnings.
There is a recent video of C-130 from USANG firebombing in Californiw, and crew said they did the video largely to show Boeing the nuisance of the warnings, and how the crew now just tune out the terain warnings from their mind.

[roaldp]

The long-delayed final report has been released today.
In Swedish here:
http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/reports/RM%202013_02.pdf
In Norwegian here:
http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/reports/RM%202013_02_no.pdf
English version hopefully to follow.

Conclusion in the Norwegian report (via Google Translate)
Accidents in complex systems are rarely the result of a single cause . Generally there are a number coinciding circumstances that come into play such accidents occur . This case is no exception in this respect. Of the report's analysis as it is clear that there has existed circumstances within the airline operations and Air Traffic Service area that together have made ​​possible accident.
A key event for the Board's opinion is that the drivers and air traffic controllers do not fully understand the other's intentions and thus be able to put these into the surrounding ground and air space perspective. It is therefore important to note that both drivers and controllers together have an overall responsibility to enable a safe aviation , this regardless of the formal responsibility lies for the respective functions can . Both driver and controller should be prepared and understand that mistakes can occur and ready to handle them.
To the greatest extent possible to prevent the occurrence of incidents that required different types of barriers that can stop such a development . Such a barrier can for example consist of rules and methods ( organizational barriers ) , warning symbols and signs ( symbolic barrier) , physical obstacles such as fences instance (physical barrier) as well as passwords ( functional barrier). Barriers widely shared in two main groups , administrative and technical barriers , where administrative barriers is an organizational protection from improper action and a technical barrier is a physical barrier. Barriers requires people to regularly maintain them. When
134 ( 140 )
terms of the barriers that rarely used as it is experienced difficult and unattractive to verify functionality before the barrier is exposed to powerful test through the necessary bruk41 . In this case , the various barriers that were thought to prevent an accident occurred not worked . Current barriers in this case are discussed below .
Deadline Flight planning is an essential element to ensure a safe flight and thus constitutes a significant barrier when it comes to avoid a hazard . Planning material AIBN has had access to it is delivered by Mission Support and corresponds to the material that would have been applicable if the contract had been completed as a tactical lavflygnings assignment of visual character. To ensure that this flight was conducted in a safe set so it would be necessary to plan your trip thoroughly . Due to lack of information about besetting preparations it is not possible to determine in how planning actually happening.
To determine the lowest safe flight level at every stages of flight are an important part of planning for all IFR flight , this is regardless of whether it concerns military or civilian operations . An incident involving the crew must conduct a quick descent from cruising altitude to a much lower flight level , for example when the cabin pressure drops or smoke on board , so it is necessary that you have previously planned and has a clear understanding of the lowest safe flight level. This safe flight level shall provide a minimum hurdle freedom underlying terrain or obstacle at 1000 feet or 2000 feet depending on the height of the terrain . Here into account the appropriate correction of pressure, temperature and wind speed .
The thus calculated lowest safe flight level is acting as a barrier to prevent the crew leading aircraft at unsafe levels. In the Board's judgment then there are two occasions that the barrier is shattered ; whether they have visual conditions have been such that the crew during the flight ' last part has been given a clear perception of the underlying terrain did not constitute a hazard to flight or so have confidence in air traffic cladding service been such that they have found no reason to question the trust. This has then led to that one has not examined the information available or consulted Accompanying planning material. It is clear that also a combination of these two possibilities may constitute an explanatory model . This assumption is strengthened by the fact that the drivers are not in any way appear to discuss the content in the received clearances .
As regards flytrafikkstjenesten as presented here above all administrative barriers in the form of rules and methods which are intended to ensure that accidents do not occur. But there are also technical aids such as radar warning system monitors , etc. , to facilitate and ensure that work is carried out in the right way. It is required that air traffic controllers have sufficient training and practical exercise in applying these rules and methods and that they have access to technical hjelpemiddlr . Also, there should be systems for monitoring how these are applied and how the work carried out to identify discrepancies. It has emerged that the systematic follow-up has not worked in practice. As can be seen in the analysis section 2.2 as there have been differences in current regulations and used phraseology . Nor has there been access to technical aids in the form of radar or Equivalent technical solution that could follow and guide the traffic at the
41 Hollnagel , E. (2004 ) . Barriers and accident prevention . Hampshire : Ashgate .
135 ( 140 )
height HAZE 01 was. The above information implies that there is a considerable development potential for strengthening these barriers.
GCAS / TAWS is the final barrier in the incident. Normally, this barrier does not apply , since a signal from GCAS / TAWS information implies that a former barrier has already burst . GCAS / TAWS shall give such notice to the collision with terrain or obstacles to be avoided. The study has shown that with the terrain profile and preferences so does not meet the criteria for a warning. It is the Board's opinion that this barrier can be developed to achieve a safer business.
Finally, as the report gives the impression that for the Norwegian Air Force and LFV has existed latent weaknesses. AIBN considers that it is these weaknesses and not the mistakes that individuals have committed that evil root cause .

[roaldp]

The Swedish accident report differs from the Norwegian.

Swedish conclusion (via Google Translate):

Findings
a) The crew was qualified to perform the flight .
b) The aircraft was airworthy and maintained in accordance with the approved maintenance program
and other agreed relevant maintenance data.
c) any technical malfunction, the aircraft has not caused or contributed to
the accident.
d ) All on board were killed instantly in the collision with the rock.
e ) The Swedish air navigation service lacked radar coverage in that part of the
Swedish airspace where the flight was conducted.
f) The crew has not checked the air traffic service clearances
the minimum safe flight level or the highest terrain in the area.
g ) All controllers were relatively newly trained and inexperienced in their respective
roles.
h) The crew has in no way been aware of the impending
the danger of the underlying terrain .
i) Accident Investigation Commission has found no consistent routine at Norwegian Air Forsvaret
which means that the flight is planned under current regulations .
j ) 'clearance from ACC Stockholm meant that the aircraft was cleared unconsciously
out of controlled airspace and relevant flight information was thus
not .
k) 'clearance from Kiruna meant that the aircraft is assigned a height not
acknowledged clearance to underlying terrain on its route to Kiruna
Airport.
l) planning document that was delivered to the crew showed deficiencies in
map material and concerned also another kind of assignment .
m) Whether the air traffic controllers at the ACC Stockholm or tower in Kiruna at degivna
clearances able to geographically position the aircraft where the
reality was.
n ) Accident Investigation Board's investigation revealed several conditions that may indicate
weaknesses in the LFV security.
o) GCAS / TAWS has not warned of collision with the terrain.
p) The combination of the actual terrain profile and the current settings
not meet the criteria for a warning of GCAS / TAWS.
q ) GCAS / TAWS has acted in conformity with the description
collectively revealed by studies of the system description , checklist
and supplements to the flight manual.
r ) Inadequate procedures at Norwegian Air Forsvaret and ambiguity in the system documentation
and training could have led to shortages of crew
knowledge and use of the system for GCAS / TAWS.
s ) the decision to give the master a dispensation to undergo flight medical examination
was not taken by a competent person.
t) No alarm was conducted from Stockholm ACC due to the information
if non-response to radio for HAZE 01.
u ) The alarm on the missing aircraft was triggered from Kiruna TWR 20 minutes
later than that stipulated in applicable regulations.
v) Police in Norrbotten ordered the operation in four mountain rescuers
about 3.5 hours after the incident became known at the agency.
131 (134)
w ) The management of air rescue at JRCC was conducted without application
of a clear and effective leadership model that took charge of system management
and operational command including how management at the site of the feared
breakdown area would be implemented and coordinated .
x ) The JRCC was no training plan, which was approved by the Transport Agency ,
for initial and recurrent training of flight incident commander.
y) The JRCC was no specific connection procedures for whereabouts of missing
aircraft in mountainous terrain.
z) Maritime Administration did not have any program or equivalent training
and exercise at the individual level of helicopter crew capability for operations
in the mountains.
å) The Swedish SAR helicopter had about two and a half hours from the alarm ,
with two stopovers for refueling, before it came to the search area .
ä ) The Norwegian Armed Forces and the Armed Forces put units available
with the skills to operate in alpine terrain for research on the ground.
ö) ELT showed such damage that it could not send any distress signal.
3.2 Causes
The accident was caused by the crew at HAZE 01 not noted
shortcomings of the clearances which air traffic left and risks to follow
these , which meant that the aircraft came to leave controlled airspace and
be operated at an altitude that was lower than the surrounding terrain .
The accident occurred due to the following organizational security flaws :
 Norwegian Air Forsvaret has failed to ensure that crews have had enough
safe practices to prevent the aircraft is being operated under
the minimum safe flight level of stretch.
 LFV has not had enough secure approach to ensure , first, that
clearances granted only within controlled airspace when flying IFR operations
no driver specifically requests otherwise , and to relevant flight information is provided .

http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/content/112/2.jpg

[roaldp]

The report in English is now finally released.
http://www.havkom.se/virtupload/reports/RM%202013_02_e.pdf